作者 | 第一财经 揭书宜 2025.10. 13 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 得力集团辞退跛脚员工，CEO留言致歉 10月13日下午，苹果CEO蒂姆·库克（下称"库克"）现身上海THE MONSTERS十周年巡展，这是 库克此次到访中国参观的第一站。 展览现场，泡泡玛特创始人王宁、LABUBU艺术家龙家升与库克进行了亲密互动，一起参观了 LABUBU系列原创手稿和丰富多元的产品。龙家升现场向库克展示了如何在iPad Pro上绘制 LABUBU，王宁还向库克赠送了惊喜礼物——LABUBU的大首领ZIMOMO。 公开资料显示，库克于2011年接替苹果创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯出任CEO。今年9月，在苹果新品发布 会上，库克把介绍iPhone Air的任务交给了特努斯。因此，最近关于库克接班人的消息引发广泛关 注。 作为全球巡展的首站，本次展览以"mons ...

Group 1 - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, visited Shanghai for the first stop of the "THE MONSTERS" 10th anniversary exhibition [1][4] - The exhibition theme is "monsters by monsters: now and then," reflecting on the development of the "the monsters" since its inception in 2015 [4] - Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart, presented a surprise gift to Cook during the event [1] Group 2 - Cook succeeded Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple in 2011, and recent discussions about his potential successor have gained attention following the September product launch event [4] - At the product launch, Cook delegated the introduction of the iPhone Air to another executive, highlighting a possible transition in leadership [4]

新浪科技讯 10月13日晚间消息，今日下午，苹果CEO库克现身上海THE MONSTERS十周年巡展，这是 库克此次到访中国参观的第一站。 展览现场，泡泡玛特创始人王宁、LABUBU艺术家龙家升与库克进行了亲密互动，一起参观了 LABUBU系列原创手稿和丰富多元的产品。 此外，龙家升现场向库克展示了如何在iPad Pro上绘制LABUBU，王宁还向库克赠送了惊喜礼物。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the consumption data for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 shows strong performance, driven by longer holiday periods and a high level of domestic and outbound travel [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Overall consumption data reflects a youthful and experience-oriented trend, with notable performance in discretionary categories such as home appliances and outdoor sports [1] - The average daily flow of cross-regional personnel in mainland China from October 1 to 8 increased by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a robust travel environment [1] - The average spending per trip during the holiday increased by 14.6% year-on-year, attributed to the ongoing recovery of outbound tourism and a rise in long-distance and segmented travel within the country [1] Group 2: Retail Performance - The Ministry of Commerce's monitoring of 78 key business districts showed a year-on-year increase in foot traffic and sales of 4.2% and 4% respectively during the first three days of the holiday [1] - Data from the National Immigration Administration revealed that the average daily number of inbound and outbound travelers exceeded 2 million, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from self-indulgent consumption trends, such as trendy toys and e-cigarettes, highlighting companies like Pop Mart (09992), Blucor (00325), and Smoore International (06969) [1] - The report also suggests investing in domestic brands in the beauty and personal care sectors, recommending companies like Mao Geping (01318), Giant Bio (02367), and Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [1] - Attention is drawn to retail sectors that may benefit from supportive domestic policies and seasonal catalysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the impact of US-China trade negotiations on Pop Mart is expected to be low due to the current progress in negotiations [1] Group 1: Trade Impact - Approximately 75% to 80% of toy imports to the US come from China, and even if higher tariffs are imposed on these toys, it is unlikely to alter the company's relative advantage [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendation - The firm has set a target price of HKD 382 for the company and maintains an "Overweight" rating, designating it as a preferred stock in the industry [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of Pop Mart, a leading player in China's IP toy industry, driven by its unique business model and market positioning, achieving significant revenue and profit increases in 2024 [1][5][30] Financial Performance - In 2024, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.9% - Adjusted net profit reached 3.403 billion yuan, up 185.9% - Revenue from mainland China was 7.97 billion yuan, growing by 52.3% - Revenue from overseas and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan reached 5.07 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 375.2%, accounting for 38.9% of total revenue - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of registered members in mainland China reached 46.083 million, with 11.729 million new members added during the year [1] Market Positioning and Product Strategy - Pop Mart's blind box model, which leverages uncertainty to drive consumer behavior, has significantly increased repurchase rates, with over 50% of members making repeat purchases - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond blind boxes, with a notable increase in derivative products such as phone cases and keychains, as well as plush toys and high-end figures [5][7] - The emotional connection provided by quality IPs is crucial, with a focus on extending product types and enhancing repurchase as key growth drivers [7] IP Development and Operations - Pop Mart has built a strong IP matrix with core characters like Molly, Dimoo, and Skullpanda, collaborating with global designers to create a differentiated IP library [11] - The company operates across the entire supply chain, from design to sales, enhancing the IP lifecycle and fostering emotional connections with fans through limited releases and collaborations [12] Channel Strategy - Pop Mart employs a comprehensive channel strategy, integrating online and offline experiences through flagship stores and automated vending machines to create immersive shopping environments [14] - The online ecosystem includes flagship stores on platforms like Tmall and WeChat mini-programs, facilitating traffic retention and private domain operations [14][21] Consumer Insights - The company effectively captures the consumption psychology of Generation Z, with over 80% of its users aged 18-35 willing to pay for emotional satisfaction [16] - Pop Mart's products serve as a form of self-expression, and the company has successfully transitioned users from buyers to "cultural co-creators" [23][30] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of consumer spending will focus on emotional value, social identity, and the integration of material and virtual experiences [28][29] - Pop Mart's model of combining emotional consumption, social currency, and scarcity economics offers valuable lessons for other brands in the entertainment and new consumer sectors [30]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Market Cap**: US$44.798 billion - **Current Share Price**: HK$259.60 (as of October 10, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$382.00 - **52-Week Range**: HK$339.80 - HK$57.00 - **Shares Outstanding**: 1,343 million - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$257 million Industry Context - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Dynamics**: The US is a significant market for IP products, where Pop Mart has strong consumer appeal and limited direct competition [3][7] Key Financial Insights - **Tariff Impact**: - Basic figures retailed at approximately US$17 before April 10, 2025, with new launches priced at US$19-20 [2] - Existing figures increased to US$19-20 in May-June 2025, anticipating a potential 50-55% tariff on toys from China [2] - Actual toy tariff has remained around 30% since May 2025, leading to an estimated US GPM of ~80% in 1H25 [2] - If tariffs remain unchanged, US GPM is expected to be higher in 2H25 [2] - A potential increase to ~130% tariff could lead to a price increase of ~US$4.5 for basic plush and ~US$3 for basic figures, maintaining GP/OP per unit [2] Strategic Insights - **Supply Chain Management**: - Pop Mart has effectively managed its supply chain and tariff mitigation strategies [3] - The company had plans to source a majority of US merchandise from Vietnam, which were postponed due to easing trade tensions [7] - It would take approximately 4-6 months to shift the supply chain if necessary, although efficiency in Vietnam would lag behind China [7] Earnings Projections - **Earnings Impact**: - In a scenario with a 130% tariff and no pricing adjustments, the estimated earnings impact for 2025 would be around 1% [7] Valuation and Growth Potential - **Valuation Methodology**: - Base case value is based on a target P/E of 42x for 2025, implying a PEG of ~1.6x on a 2025-27 EPS CAGR [8] - **Growth Drivers**: - Continued sales momentum in China and overseas markets, successful product line expansion, and new IP initiatives are expected to drive further re-rating [8] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Faster overseas growth, successful rollout of popular products, and retention of momentum in China [10] - **Downside Risks**: - Weak macro environment, uncertainties related to new products, and unsuccessful overseas expansion [10] Conclusion - Pop Mart International Group is positioned well within the consumer market, with effective management of tariff impacts and a strong growth outlook driven by product innovation and market expansion strategies. The company remains a top pick in the China/Hong Kong consumer sector, with a favorable valuation and growth potential despite potential risks associated with macroeconomic conditions and trade tensions.

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Pop Mart, a company in the collectible toys industry, particularly known for its designer toys and figures. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance** - In September, offline sales growth is expected to remain consistent with August, driven by restocking and new product launches, particularly the mini Labubu series [2][4] - Douyin channel sales growth exceeded the peak in February, marking a new high for the year, attributed to the 3.0 version restocking and promotional events [2][4] - Tmall platform maintained over 80% year-on-year growth, while JD platform saw nearly 100% growth in July-August, generating approximately 35.6 million yuan [2][4] 2. **New Product Launches** - September saw the launch of several new products, including the "Demo's Today is Sunday" series, which gained significant traction on social media [3] - Other notable new products included "Little Sweet Bean's Day," "New Star People," and "Gisgai's Heart Bear," with two being made of flocked material [3] 3. **International Expansion** - Pop Mart is actively expanding its overseas market, opening three new stores in the United States, with additional openings in Singapore, Canada, Bordeaux, France, and the Middle East [2][5] 4. **Marketing Season Expectations** - The second half of the year is anticipated to be a peak marketing season, with a higher volume and quality of new products compared to the first half [2][6] - Traditional peak sales periods such as Halloween and Christmas are expected to drive significant sales [6] 5. **Financial Projections** - The company forecasts a year-on-year revenue growth of over 150% in the third quarter of 2025, with positive impacts on annual profits expected from the third-quarter performance [2][6] 6. **Response to Tariff Costs** - Pop Mart is managing rising tariff costs through a global supply chain and the ability to pass some costs onto consumers, with price increases observed in both hard figures and plush series [2][7] - The company's stock price has shown resilience, recovering from a significant drop earlier in the year, indicating effective strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [7] Other Important Insights - The performance of new products and the effectiveness of marketing strategies are crucial for maintaining growth in a competitive market [3][6] - The company's ability to adapt to external economic pressures, such as tariffs, reflects its operational strength and strategic planning [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market sentiment and potential investment opportunities or risks associated with these stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Short-Selling Ratios - Anta Sports-R (82020) and Great Wall Motors-R (82333) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00% [1][2]. - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) follows closely with a short-selling ratio of 95.69% [1][2]. - Other notable companies with high short-selling ratios include JD Group-SWR (89618) at 94.72% and Bank of China Hong Kong-R (82388) at 77.81% [2]. Group 2: Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba-SW (09988) leads in short-selling amount with 3.213 billion [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) and Tencent Holdings (00700) follow with short-selling amounts of 1.740 billion and 1.605 billion, respectively [2]. - Other companies in the top short-selling amounts include Pop Mart (09992) at 1.290 billion and Baidu Group-SW (09888) at 1.044 billion [2]. Group 3: Deviation Values - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) has the highest deviation value at 47.78%, indicating a significant difference from its average short-selling ratio over the past 30 days [1][2]. - JD Group-SWR (89618) and China Lilang (01234) also show high deviation values of 45.61% and 44.19%, respectively [1][2]. - Other companies with notable deviation values include Great Wall Motors-R (82333) at 34.51% and SenseTime-WR (80020) at 34.02% [2].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the sustainable practices of the Yida Group's "Ten Ru Factory" in Guilin, showcasing a new direction for Chinese manufacturing that integrates environmental and employee well-being into its operations [2][4][6]. - The factory consists of four main parts: yarn factory, garment factory, plant dyeing workshop, and office + dining area, promoting a collaborative work environment without fixed workstations [4][6]. - The factory has been recognized as a zero-carbon park this year, highlighting its commitment to sustainability [2][6]. Group 2 - Energy-saving measures include the use of low-radiation glass and solar energy to power part of the facility [6]. - The factory emphasizes material recycling, such as reusing yarn tubes and steel pipes for decoration, and employs plant-based dyes for all fabrics [6][8]. - The factory's smart spinning technology allows for a production capacity of 6,000 tons of yarn annually with only 100 workers, demonstrating high efficiency [6][8]. Group 3 - Employee welfare is prioritized through a nutritionist-designed meal plan, a dining app linked to health reports, and initiatives to reduce food waste [6][8]. - The company fosters a culture of personal responsibility among employees, encouraging them to maintain cleanliness in shared spaces [6][8]. - Housing for employees is provided in community apartments rather than factory dormitories, promoting a sense of home and equality among staff [6][8]. Group 4 - The article also discusses the shift in the fashion industry, where accessory brands are gaining prominence over traditional clothing brands, reflecting consumer behavior during economic downturns [10][11]. - Pop Mart's revenue surpassing Disney's in the first half of 2025 highlights a significant trend in the toy industry, where visual IPs are becoming more appealing than narrative-driven products [30][31]. - The contrasting growth strategies of Pop Mart and Disney illustrate the evolving landscape of consumer preferences, with Pop Mart focusing on market expansion and Disney relying on content production [33][38].