Core Insights - The 44th J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference has highlighted significant industry developments, including a $1 billion investment by NVIDIA and Eli Lilly to establish a joint research lab in the San Francisco Bay Area to accelerate AI applications in the pharmaceutical sector [1] - The conference serves as a critical platform for domestic pharmaceutical companies to showcase core molecular product capabilities and advance overseas business development collaborations, indicating a return to global value validation for products [2] - The participation of over 8,000 global attendees and more than 500 listed companies underscores the strengthening global competitiveness of Chinese companies in the pharmaceutical sector [2] Group 1: Innovative Drugs - BeiGene focuses on oncology drug development and global commercialization, presenting progress on core products like CDK4 at the conference [2] - Rongchang Biologics has entered an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the novel PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, granting AbbVie rights outside Greater China for development, production, and commercialization [2] - Hengrui Medicine, involved in the R&D, production, and sales of innovative and generic drugs, reported that over 50% of its revenue now comes from innovative drugs, with multiple self-developed products receiving approvals [2] Group 2: CRO/CMO - WuXi AppTec provides integrated CXO services covering the entire drug development and manufacturing process, projecting a 32.56% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2025 [3] - WuXi Biologics, specializing in biopharmaceutical CRDMO services, announced 209 new projects, bringing the total to 945, with potential milestone payments exceeding $4 billion from new research contracts [3] - Tigermed offers clinical trial CRO services and participated in the Asia-Pacific session of the conference, providing outsourcing services related to clinical trials for global pharmaceutical companies [3] Group 3: AI in Healthcare - NVIDIA and Eli Lilly's collaboration aims to build AI models to enhance new drug development, with a planned investment of $1 billion over the next five years [4] - RunDa Medical focuses on comprehensive medical testing services and is developing an automated testing interpretation system based on large models [4] - Anbiping has launched a digital pathology AI system and is exploring the registration and commercialization of AI medical devices in cervical cytology [4]

Recent Events - Company announced on January 12 that it has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its self-developed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, granting AbbVie exclusive rights for development, production, and commercialization outside Greater China. The company will receive an upfront payment of $650 million and is eligible for up to $4.95 billion in milestone payments, as well as double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1] Product Development and International Collaboration - The recent licensing agreement further validates the company's speed in international expansion, following the external authorization of its core products RC18 and RC28 by 2025. As of January 2026, there are 17 PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody drugs in clinical trials globally, with several signed BD agreements, showcasing the company's strong R&D capabilities [2] - AbbVie, as an international MNC, has a diverse product pipeline including the first FRα-targeting ADC drug Elahere and others, which will strategically complement RC148 and expand its global reach [2] Clinical Data and Efficacy - At the 2025 ESMO-IO conference, the company disclosed promising data for RC148, showing an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 100% for monotherapy. For combination therapy, the ORR reached 66.7% and the DCR was 95.2%, indicating initial clinical advantages and manageable safety profiles [3] - Early clinical studies have shown that RC148, when used in combination with antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), exhibits promising anti-tumor activity, with the company actively advancing related clinical trials [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (09995), highlighting the company's strong independent R&D capabilities, stable sales growth of core products, experienced management team, steady progress in clinical indications, and reasonable domestic and international layout, with optimism regarding the company's commercialization capabilities post-product launch [1] Recent Events - On January 12, the company announced an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its independently developed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, granting AbbVie exclusive rights for development, production, and commercialization outside Greater China. The company will receive an upfront payment of $650 million and is eligible for up to $4.95 billion in milestone payments, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1] International Expansion - Following the authorization of core products RC18 and RC28 in 2025, this recent agreement further validates the company's speed in international expansion. As of January 2026, 17 PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody drugs are in clinical trials globally, with several BD agreements signed, showcasing the company's R&D capabilities. AbbVie, as a partner, has a diverse product line that complements RC148, enhancing its global positioning [2] Clinical Data - At the 2025 ESMO-IO conference, the company disclosed promising data for RC148, showing an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 100% in monotherapy. In combination therapy, the ORR reached 66.7% and the DCR was 95.2%. The safety profile is manageable, indicating initial clinical advantages. The company is actively advancing related clinical studies, anticipating further clinical potential [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1][2] - The collaboration with AbbVie is expected to enhance the company's international clinical development and market expansion, leveraging AbbVie's existing oncology pipeline [2] - Initial clinical data for RC148 shows promising results, with an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% for monotherapy and 66.7% for combination therapy, indicating strong potential for further clinical advancement [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.75 billion, 3.38 billion, and 4.41 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.95%, 22.97%, and 30.40% [7] - The projected net profit for 2026 is expected to be -315.8 million CNY, with a turnaround to a profit of 383.89 million CNY by 2027 [7] - The gross margin is anticipated to remain high, with estimates of 83.65% in 2025 and 82.27% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment opportunity for Rongchang Biopharma following the signing of a significant licensing agreement with AbbVie, which is expected to enhance the company's financial position and market presence [2][25]. Core Insights - Rongchang Biopharma has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the novel PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, which includes an upfront payment of $650 million (approximately 4.5 billion RMB) and potential milestone payments totaling up to $4.95 billion (approximately 34.5 billion RMB) [2][8]. - The total transaction value is close to $4 billion, marking a record for the company in terms of external licensing agreements [3][8]. - The PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody market is identified as a "golden track" for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with increasing upfront payments reflecting the growing value of these assets [9][10]. Industry Overview - The number of BD licensing deals for Chinese innovative drugs has surged from 85 in 2023 to 157 in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.9% [11]. - The total transaction value for these deals has skyrocketed from $32 billion in 2023 to $135.7 billion in 2025, representing a growth of over three times [13]. - The industry is entering an accelerated growth phase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 161% for BD licensing deals in 2025, significantly outpacing previous years [15]. Financial Performance - Rongchang Biopharma's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.72 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.27% [16]. - Despite ongoing net losses exceeding 1 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, the company has shown improvement, with losses narrowing to 551 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 1.071 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [17][19]. - The anticipated upfront payment from the AbbVie deal is expected to further improve Rongchang Biopharma's profitability and cash reserves, potentially leading to profitability in 2026 if the payment is fully received [19]. Product Pipeline - Rongchang Biopharma's key products include Taitasip (IL-4Rα antibody) and Vidisicimab (HER2 ADC), which are currently the main sources of revenue [20]. - The RC148 bispecific antibody is a focus for the company, currently in I/II clinical stages, and the collaboration with AbbVie is expected to accelerate its global development [23].

Core Viewpoint - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for the novel PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's financial position and growth prospects [3][20]. Group 1: Licensing Agreement Details - The agreement grants AbbVie exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize RC148 outside Greater China, with Rongchang receiving an upfront payment of $650 million (approximately 4.5 billion RMB) [3][7]. - The total potential transaction value could reach $4.95 billion (approximately 34.5 billion RMB), including milestone payments and royalties based on net sales [3][7]. - This transaction marks a record for Rongchang in terms of both upfront payment and total deal value, surpassing previous agreements [7][20]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The number of BD (business development) licensing agreements for Chinese innovative drugs has surged, with transactions increasing from 85 in 2023 to 157 in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 35.9% [9]. - The total transaction value for these agreements is projected to rise from $32 billion in 2023 to $135.7 billion in 2025, representing over a threefold increase [11]. - The average upfront payment has also seen significant growth, increasing from $2.5 billion to $7 billion, a rise of 180% [11][13]. Group 3: Company Financial Performance - Rongchang's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.72 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 42.27% [14]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company has reported net losses exceeding 1 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, with a reduced loss of 551 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 1.071 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [15][16]. - The anticipated upfront payment from the AbbVie agreement is expected to further improve Rongchang's profitability and cash reserves, potentially leading to profitability in 2026 if the payment is fully received [16].

Market Overview - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.9% on January 14, with Rongchang Biopharmaceutical leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the biopharmaceutical sector included: - Aidi Pharmaceutical, closing at 19.83 with a rise of 16.72% and a trading volume of 242,400 shares, totaling 462 million yuan [1] - Wufan Biopharmaceutical, closing at 57.38 with an increase of 4.35% and a trading volume of 47,900 shares, totaling 272 million yuan [1] - Kangbuno, closing at 71.99 with a rise of 4.17% and a trading volume of 49,300 shares, totaling 355 million yuan [1] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical saw a significant decline, closing at 103.34 with a drop of 9.72% and a trading volume of 196,700 shares, totaling 2.091 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a net outflow of 656 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 407 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Watson Biopharmaceuticals with a net inflow of 63.73 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Kanghua Biopharmaceuticals with a net inflow of 18.92 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Overall, retail investors contributed a net inflow of 4.07 billion yuan to the sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a decline, with several key stocks and ETFs showing significant drops in value, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards this industry [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has seen a decline of over 10% in its stock price [1]. - Other companies such as Baile Tianheng, Xinlitai, and Maiwei Biopharmaceutical-U have also dropped more than 3% [1]. - Multiple innovative drug-related ETFs have decreased nearly 2% in value [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Some brokerages suggest that core assets in the innovative drug sector will continue to appreciate, highlighting emerging opportunities in small nucleic acids and in vivo CAR technologies [2]. - The long-term trend of innovative drug business development (BD) is seen as a pathway for Chinese innovative drug capabilities to gain recognition on the global stage [2]. - Core assets that have been licensed to multinational corporations (MNCs) are expected to realize their value as clinical progress continues [2]. - Future focus should remain on cutting-edge technology platforms and closely monitor advancements in clinical data [2].

Core Insights - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector is experiencing a divergence, with Yiming Biotech facing setbacks due to the return of its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody by partner Axion, while Rongchang Biotech secured a significant licensing deal worth $5.6 billion with AbbVie, highlighting the increasing differentiation within the dual antibody space and outlining the core investment theme for 2026: certainty [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - The investment landscape in the pharmaceutical sector is shifting from a focus on broad-based licensing deals to a preference for certainty in value, emphasizing three core anchors: expectation certainty, product certainty, and performance certainty [2][6] - The previous trend of "BD is king" in 2025 led to a surge in licensing deals, but the market is now recalibrating its valuation logic, moving away from blind enthusiasm towards a more rational assessment of the feasibility of these deals [1][2] Group 2: Expectation Certainty - Expectation certainty involves a rational evaluation of the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blind pursuit of total deal amounts, as the probability of new drugs progressing from early clinical stages to market approval is only 7.9% [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector shows that not all players can achieve their expected value due to overlapping targets and indications, mirroring past trends in the PD-1 monoclonal antibody market [3][4] Group 3: Product Certainty - Product certainty focuses on the potential for substantial sales post-launch, with products that have clear growth logic expected to command higher valuations [5][6] - WanTai Biotech's nine-valent HPV vaccine, priced at 499 yuan per dose (40% of imported vaccines), is positioned for significant market penetration, while Innovent Biologics' Ma Shidu peptide faces challenges due to increased competition and pricing pressures, leading to diminished commercial value [5][6] Group 4: Performance Certainty - Performance certainty seeks companies and sectors with clear growth or recovery expectations, as the essence of investment is capturing expectation differences [7][8] - WuXi AppTec's profit forecast for 2025 indicates a significant growth of 41.33% year-on-year, reflecting its foundational role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain and a potential recovery in valuation due to increased R&D investments [7][8] - The vaccine sector is also poised for recovery, with domestic companies expected to benefit from a broad replacement market and initial overseas expansion, indicating a favorable investment outlook [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Rongchang Biopharma has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for RC148, which includes an upfront payment of $650 million, potential milestone payments of up to $4.95 billion for development, regulatory, and commercialization, and double-digit tiered royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1] Group 1 - The collaboration is seen as a surprise and may boost market confidence in the Chinese biotech and pharmaceutical sectors, as Morgan Stanley previously assessed the likelihood of this event as low and did not factor it into their models [1] - The deal reflects the competitive advantage of RC148, with key data for its use in first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) expected to be announced at the ASCO conference at the end of May [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Rongchang Biopharma from HKD 77 to HKD 116 and upgraded its rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1]