证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 04 年 月 日 ◼ 重磅研报 【金融工程】二月配置建议：关注美元流动性和情绪指标何时修复—— 20260203 【固定收益】从 2025 年实际情况看 2026 年财政前景与挑战—— 20260203 【固定收益】可转债产业链大图谱———2026 年 2 月——20260203 【汽车】豪恩汽电（301488.SZ）-智能驾驶感知龙头，机器人开启新增 长曲线——20260203 ◼ 研究视点 【纺织服饰】新澳股份（603889.SH）-毛价上涨持续利好，期待靓丽业 绩逐步释放——20260203 【计算机】寒武纪-U（（688256.SH）-25 年业绩预告全年转盈，规模效应 加速凸显——20260203 作者 | 分析师 何亚轩 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518030004 | | | | | 邮箱：heyaxuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 传媒 | 14.0% | 1 ...

来源：证券时报 "寒王"遭遇"小作文"空袭！ 2月3日，寒武纪低开低走，受"小作文"影响盘中一度跌超14%，并以9.18%的跌幅报收1128元/股，较去 年8月份创下的高位回撤逼近三成。且据近期披露的公募基金2025年四季报，在高位震荡之际，基金经 理对该股的持仓亦有分歧，有基金依旧坚定选择加仓，也有基金将其调出前十大重仓股名单。 有基金经理分析称，在前期涨幅巨大、估值高企的背景下，任何不利传闻都可能成为"压垮骆驼的一根 稻草"。如果所持股票受"小作文"冲击，但核实为不实谣言，且公司基本面、长期成长逻辑未变，短期 股价大跌反而可能是布局机会，会结合估值水平适度加仓或坚定持有。 寒武纪重挫 近日有市场传闻称，寒武纪小范围交流给出2026年营收200亿元的估计，远低于市场300亿—500亿元预 期。受"小作文"影响，寒武纪-U今天上午突然跳水，盘中跌幅一度超过14%，成交量明显放大。 2月3日中午，寒武纪官微发文称："公司关注到今日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为 不实信息，公司近期从未组织任何小范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信 息请以公司公开披露的信息为准。" 下午开盘，随 ...

今日热点导览 国投瑞银回应白银LOF估值调整：未提前公告，意在避免恐慌与挤兑 寒武纪：网传关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息不实 腾讯等增值税"加税"系谣言 Adobe将关停25年历史动画制作工具Animate 特斯拉在美国将Model Y全轮驱动版车型定价为41990美元 TOP3大新闻 周生生方针对品牌足金挂坠被检测出含铁银钯，再发声明 近日，有消费者将周生生足金挂坠送检后发现，不同点位的金含量不同。该消费者提供的检测结果照片 及视频显示，该挂坠纯度最高点位金含量为99.99%，但其他点位的检测结果却出现了不同的数据：其 中一个点位金含量为96.21%，另一个点位为83.35%，最低的一个点位仅为64.37%。金含量最高点位和 最低点位相差35.62%。此外，检测结果显示，挂坠中含有铁、银、钯等多种其他金属元素。 对此，周生生官方客服接受记者采访时表示，"周生生足金饰品都是符合相关国标的，含金量不低于 990‰。带有足金印记，品质也是有相关保障的。新闻相关的事宜，我们正在跟进沟通中。针对此事， 周生生官方微博2月3日晚间再发说明称，针对顾客反馈的相关情况，周生生高度重视，第一时间复核了 当时出厂批次的破坏性 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the quality concerns of Chow Sang Sang's gold pendants, which were found to have varying gold content levels, with the highest at 99.99% and the lowest at 64.37%, showing a difference of 35.62% [3][5] - Chow Sang Sang's official response emphasized that all their gold products meet national standards, with a gold content of no less than 990‰, and they are taking the matter seriously by conducting further tests [5][3] - The company has sent the same batch of products for testing to the National Gemstone and Jewelry Testing Center, which confirmed the gold content as 99.99% in multiple tests [5][3] Group 2 - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with various sectors, including precious metals, facing sharp declines due to panic selling and high leverage [17][12] - The domestic automotive market is showing a clear divide, with traditional brands like SAIC and Geely seeing over 20% growth, while new energy vehicle startups are facing collective declines [17] - The gaming industry is under scrutiny for potential tax adjustments, with rumors causing stock price drops among major companies like Tencent, although these rumors have been deemed unreliable [14][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding bill to resolve the partial government shutdown, providing funding until September 30, 2026 [2] - AMD reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $2.52 billion, a 42% year-over-year increase, with revenue of $10.27 billion, up 34% [4] - AMD expects first-quarter revenue between $9.5 billion and $10.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $9.39 billion [5] Group 2 - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang denied any changes in the relationship with OpenAI, stating that investment plans are proceeding as planned and that NVIDIA will participate in OpenAI's next funding round [7] - ByteDance acquired two commercial land plots in Haidian District for 2.8 billion yuan, with a total area of approximately 39,522 square meters [15] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released a document focusing on agricultural modernization and technological innovation in agriculture [13][14]

去年春节，是"深度思考"出圈的DeepSeek时刻 。 今年春节 ，注定是AI推广史重要的节点。 继百度APP投入5亿现金红包并亮相北京台春晚，腾讯元宝推出10亿红包活动之后。 2月2日早，千问APP宣布投入30亿启动"春节请客计划"，以免单形式请全国人民在春节期间吃喝玩乐， 感受AI时代的全新生活方式。 彻底将春节的AI推广攻势推向高潮。 当千家万户在腾讯元宝里抢"万元小马卡"、在千问APP领取"AI免单"、在豆包生成拜年视频时，同时也 是国产AI芯片的压力测试场 。 每一枚红包的派发都是一次AI推理请求，每一次"秒开"体验背后都是算力在支撑。 2026年春节，注定是中国AI产业"表里双生"的历史节点 。 表是红包的用户狂欢，里是国产芯片的底层突围。 01 AI红包大战，把AI之战推向高潮 1. 红包创纪录，巨头鏖战春节档 今年的AI红包大战，参与玩家之多、投入资金之巨，都创下了历年春节营销的新高。 腾讯旗下元宝APP率先开启春节10亿元红包活动，设置了万元小马卡、现金红包和分享红包等多种红包 形态。 （图片来源：元宝派） （图片来源：腾讯） 从效果来看，腾讯元宝APP已经升至苹果商店免费APP第一名。针对 ...

文 | 《财经》特约撰稿人 康国亮 编辑 | 杨秀红 其早盘开盘后跳水，截至午间收盘，股价下跌12.88%至1082.09元/股，创出近半年新低，总市值相较前一交易日减少675亿元，跌至4563亿 元。 消息面上，当日市场上一则传闻对寒武纪股价形成扰动，其大致内容为：寒武纪最近组织了一场小范围交流，据传公司给出2026年营收指引为 200亿元，低于市场预期的500亿元-600亿元。 此前寒武纪董秘办回复投资者热线时，接线工作人员表示："这个（股价波动原因）我们不太清楚，首先市场上很多的传闻，肯定都是假的， 然后二级市场资金、情绪的波动还是比较多的，大家理性对待。" 午间收盘后，寒武纪在其官方微信公众号上正式发布声明，公司关注到2月3日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为不实信息，公 司近期从未组织任何小范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信息请以公司公开披露的信息为准。公司目前研发进展 顺利，经营稳步推进。 同时，寒武纪在声明中表示，公司相关事项均以公开披露信息为准，请各位投资者提高信息辨别能力，不传播、不采信来源不明或未经核实的 虚假信息。此外，对于任何捏造、散布传播不实信息的行 ...

Core Insights - The dinner hosted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang in Taipei included key executives from major companies in the AI supply chain, highlighting the importance of collaboration in the industry [2][3] - Huang emphasized the challenges in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, and indicated that the supply chain will be "extremely tight" in 2026 [3][12] - The event showcased the significant market value of the participating companies, collectively exceeding $5 trillion [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, confirmed that TSMC needs to work hard to meet NVIDIA's demand for wafers and CoWoS packaging capacity, with NVIDIA accounting for over 60% of TSMC's CoWoS demand in 2025 [3][4] - Major Taiwanese manufacturers like Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, and Wistron are responsible for assembling NVIDIA's AI supercomputing systems, indicating a clear division of labor within the supply chain [5] - The introduction of liquid cooling solutions by companies like Qihong Technology reflects the increasing power demands of new chips, necessitating advanced thermal management [5][6] Financial Performance - Victory Technology, a PCB manufacturer, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 260.35% to 295.00% year-on-year, driven by high-value product orders related to AI computing [6][7] - Industrial Fulian, a subsidiary of Hon Hai, expects a net profit increase of 51% to 54% for 2025, with a notable growth in cloud service server revenue [7][8] - Companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, are also experiencing substantial growth, with projected net profits increasing by up to 128.17% [8][9] Emerging Competitors - Domestic chip companies like Cambrian are achieving significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 410.87% to 496.02% increase in 2025, marking their first annual profit [10][11] - The rise of domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Moer Technology and Tianxu Zhixin, reflects a shift towards local alternatives in the computing power market, driven by capital market support [11][12] - Huang's comments on the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging solutions suggest ongoing opportunities in the semiconductor sector [12]

早盘，AI芯片标杆企业寒武纪遭遇"闪崩"，盘中跌幅接近14%，市值一度回落到4500亿元左右。午后跌 幅收窄。截至收盘，下跌9.18%，报1128元。其他AI芯片公司方面，摩尔线程跌2.65%，沐曦股份跌 3.08%。针对股价异常波动，寒武纪紧急发布声明，针对网络流传的组织交流活动、出具营收指引等不 实信息予以否认，强调经营状况稳定。业绩方面，寒武纪2025年实现扭亏为盈，但第四季度业绩增幅明 显放缓。从行业角度看，台积电2nm产能已被全球科技巨头预订一空，AMD、谷歌、AWS及英伟达等 头部企业均排定了未来几年的先进制程产能释放计划。对于寒武纪，一些机构观点仍偏乐观，称其将充 分受益于AI算力需求的持续爆发。但也有机构对其高估值表示担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Cambricon, a leading domestic AI chip company, experienced a significant drop of 9.18% on February 3, closing at 1128 yuan per share, largely due to market rumors regarding its revenue projections for 2026 being significantly lower than expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Cambricon's stock price fell sharply, with an intraday decline of up to 14%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over 48 billion yuan in one day [1][3]. - The company issued a statement denying the rumors about its revenue guidance and emphasized that it has not organized any small-scale communications recently [1][3]. - Despite a slight recovery in stock price after the statement, negative market sentiment persisted [1]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Financial Outlook - Cambricon projected its 2025 annual revenue to be between 6 billion to 7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02%, with a net profit forecast of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan [3]. - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 245 million to 545 million yuan, indicating a significant decline compared to analyst expectations of 613 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Industry Context and Competitive Landscape - The adjustment in the AI chip sector reflects both domestic and international market pressures, with concerns about the saturation of AI infrastructure driven by large language models [2]. - The domestic market is seeing an influx of new AI chip companies, which may dilute Cambricon's market position and raise questions about its valuation and future performance [2]. - Other companies in the sector, such as Tenstorrent and Mozi Technology, are actively launching new products and providing detailed updates on their technological advancements, contrasting with Cambricon's limited communication [4].