申万宏源证券指出，近期黄金上涨主要系12月降息预期升温，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而美法 案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升。当前我国黄金储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续上 行。同时金银比处于偏高水平，边际需求修复预期下金银比有望收敛。当前贵金属板块估值处于历史中 枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。中国央行连续12个月增持黄金，有望提振黄金多头信心，打 消此前市场对金价过高央行停止购金的担忧，进一步表明当前金价定价因素优先级上安全性高于收益 性。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

12月4日，白银创纪录的上涨背后，真正推动行情的并非对冲基金，而是一股矿业短期难以满足的强劲 实物需求浪潮。多位行业资深人士在近期交流中强调，当前实体需求对金融市场的牵引力达到了前所未 有的程度。在全球贵金属行业会议上，"实体为王"成为最引人关注的共识。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，这一 轮白银上涨已明显呈现由实体需求主导金融价格的特征，而非传统的投机力量。当前全球供应端难以快 速扩张，使得实体市场的紧张情绪不断累积，推动企业、投资人和相关机构加速补库存，从而进一步放 大价格波动。 12月4日，白银创纪录的上涨背后，真正推动行情的并非对冲基金，而是一股矿业短期难以满足的强劲 实物需求浪潮。多位行业资深人士在近期交流中强调，当前实体需求对金融市场的牵引力达到了前所未 有的程度。在全球贵金属行业会议上，"实体为王"成为最引人关注的共识。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，这一 轮白银上涨已明显呈现由实体需求主导金融价格的特征，而非传统的投机力量。当前全球供应端难以快 速扩张，使得实体市场的紧张情绪不断累积，推动企业、投资人和相关机构加速补库存，从而进一步放 大价格波动。 行业资深人士指出，过去二十年未曾见过的库存压力与市场 ...

白银价格屡创新高，其背后的动力已不再来自对冲基金，而是来自全球范围内持续增强的实物购买力。 业内多位资深人士在近期的行业会议中强调，当前的银市走势更像是由"货源紧张"而非"金融炒作"驱 动。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，这种由实体需求主导价格的结构性变化，正在重塑全球银市格局，并让市场 参与者以全新的方式思考库存风险与供需平衡。 长期以来，西方投资者以银条和银币形式积累了大量白银，其中相当部分被放置在托管账户与长期储蓄 计划中，并呈现"代际延续"现象——继承人不出售，而是继续持有。这意味着，大量早期被买入的白银 不再回流市场，从而进一步收紧可交易供应。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，这种"代际持有"特征，正在让白银 逐渐具备长期储备型资产的属性，进一步提高了市场的紧平衡程度。 白银追赶黄金：宏观因素一致，涨势同步 推动黄金创新高的多重宏观不确定性也同样影响白银，而白银在价格结构上常具有"追赶"特性。随着投 资与工业需求双重驱动，白银正逐步缩小与黄金的价格比值。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，金银比进一步收敛 是大概率事件，市场力量正在把白银重新推回"价值被低估的位置"。 工业端开始补库：从"够用即可"到"必须拥有" 不 ...

华泰证券指出，供需改善或成金属行业2026年主基调。货币宽松经济恢复阶段，有望触发金银比收敛， 2026年白银价格或较黄金更为强势上行。铜、铝行业2026年供需格局或为供不应求。 ...

华泰证券研报称，供需改善或成2026年金属行业主基调。在美国实际利率下行预期下，2026年LME金 价或涨至4800美元/盎司以上。此外，全球货币宽松经济恢复阶段，有望触发金银比收敛，2026年白银 价格或较黄金更为强势。铜、铝行业2026年供需格局或为供不应求，同时，钢铁供需格局有望改善。建 议积极关注低估值、高成长性的铜；高分红、低估值的铝；金和钢铁等板块低估值标的投资机会，对铁 矿石标的持谨慎态度。 ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts suggest that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle may have ended, with expectations to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September policy meeting. This is based on anticipated large-scale fiscal stimulus from the EU, including increased defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany, which are expected to support the economy starting in early 2026 [1] - Saxo Bank reports that silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since September 2011, driven by macroeconomic support, industrial demand growth, and supply shortages. The current price is $40.70 per ounce, with expectations that rising US rate cut expectations will continue to boost silver alongside gold [1] - ING analysts indicate that the upcoming US non-farm payroll report will significantly influence gold prices, which have been on an upward trend. A weak report could strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September [2][3] Group 2 - MUFG analysts predict that a weak US non-farm payroll report could lead to further declines in the dollar and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with current market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut [3] - Societe Generale highlights that the pound is facing downward pressure due to high inflation and low growth in the UK, presenting challenges for the Bank of England's policy [5] - CICC forecasts that US inflation pressures may continue to rise, suggesting that if rate cuts occur during high inflation periods, it could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year rate potentially reaching 4.8% by year-end [6] Group 3 - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could drive down real interest rates, benefiting gold investments. They suggest that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the upward trend in gold prices may persist [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD may require additional catalysts to break the 7 level, with current market conditions providing support for the currency [7] - CITIC Securities also indicates that the bond market's pricing may reflect a more dominant domestic influence, suggesting that the relationship between equity and bond markets is not necessarily oppositional [8] Group 4 - CITIC Jinpu reports that lithium carbonate production in China reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, with a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase. The downstream demand is entering a traditional peak season, providing support for lithium prices [9]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising market risk aversion have led to an increase in gold and silver prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 and reaching a historical high of $3,508.69 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen significant increases, with major brands reporting daily price rises of 10 to 16 yuan per gram [1] - The performance of gold companies is highly correlated with gold prices, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. debt accumulation are expected to support gold prices, indicating a long-term bullish trend for gold [1] Group 2 - The medium to long-term logic for rising gold prices remains unchanged, with mainstream gold companies expected to benefit significantly from price increases, and production growth anticipated from 2025 to 2027 [2] - Most gold companies are projected to have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 20 times by 2026, indicating favorable valuation and chip structure within the gold sector [2] - The growth in domestic gold production is expected to enhance company performance beyond just gold price factors, while stable mining costs may further improve earnings release capabilities [2] Group 3 - The monetary easing phase is likely to trigger a convergence in the gold-silver ratio, with silver's price being influenced by gold prices [3] - Historical data suggests that the convergence of the gold-silver ratio typically occurs during the latter stages of interest rate cuts or after cuts, coinciding with rising PMI [3] - During the convergence phase, silver prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially outpacing gold if interest rate cuts are realized [3]

Group 1 - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in September, which may drive down real interest rates and lead to increased capital inflows into ETFs, benefiting gold [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive unless the U.S. economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario and effectively reduces the deficit, suggesting that central bank buyers may continue their gold purchasing strategy [1] - The current valuation and chip structure of typical gold companies are favorable, and they are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production in the future [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports a significant increase in satellite launch frequency, with expectations that the second half of 2025 may mark an industry turning point [2] - The strategic importance of the satellite communication industry is highlighted, with clear policy direction and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent guidance to promote the opening of satellite communication services [2] - The satellite industry is transitioning from thematic investment to more sustainable industrial investment, with a recommendation to focus on satellite operators with potential for obtaining business licenses, as well as companies involved in manufacturing, launching, and ground equipment [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities maintains a positive outlook on the stability and sustainability of bank stocks, noting a shift in their operating model and investment logic from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [3] - During periods of economic stagnation, bank stocks are attractive due to their high dividend yields, suggesting continued interest in this sector [3] - Two main investment lines for bank stocks are identified: regional banks with strong certainty and advantages in areas such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian, and those with high dividend stability [3]

Group 1 - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts could drive down real interest rates in the U.S., benefiting gold investments [1] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive unless the U.S. economy achieves high growth with low inflation and effectively reduces deficit rates [1] - The current valuation and chip structure of typical gold companies are favorable, with significant benefits expected from rising gold prices and increased production [1] - The silver-gold ratio is expected to converge as the economy stabilizes post-rate cuts, suggesting investment opportunities in silver [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights the increasing frequency of satellite launches, predicting a potential industry turning point in the second half of 2025 [2] - The strategic importance of the satellite communication industry is underscored by clear policy direction, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promoting the opening of satellite communication services [2] - The satellite industry is transitioning from thematic investments to more sustainable industrial investments, with a focus on companies that may obtain business licenses and those involved in manufacturing, launching, and ground equipment [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities maintains a positive outlook on bank stocks, emphasizing their stability and sustainability [3] - The investment logic for bank stocks has shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with high dividend yields becoming attractive during economic stagnation [3] - Two main investment lines for bank stocks are identified: regional banks with strong certainty in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shandong, and Fujian, and banks with high dividend yields [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish remarks by Powell at the Federal Reserve's annual meeting signal a likely interest rate cut in September, leading the market to bet on this outcome [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to drive down real interest rates in the U.S., potentially leading to increased inflows into ETFs and benefiting gold prices [1] - A sustained upward trend in gold prices is likely unless the U.S. economy can achieve high growth with low inflation and effectively reduce the deficit [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Current valuations and chip structures of typical gold companies are favorable, and they are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production in the future [1] - The convergence of the gold-silver ratio typically occurs after a period of monetary easing when the economy begins to recover, which may trigger the industrial properties of silver [1] - If the anticipated interest rate cuts stabilize the economy, there may be investment opportunities in silver [1]