Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Overview - The metallurgical industry in China is focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction, aiming to minimize energy consumption and pollutant emissions while ensuring product quality and output [1][9][21] - In 2024, total investment in energy conservation and emission reduction by metallurgical enterprises is projected to decrease to 42 billion yuan, with energy-saving benefits dropping to 13 billion yuan [11] Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in the metallurgical industry, including action plans and guidelines aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][6] - Specific targets for comprehensive energy consumption and carbon emission intensity in the steel industry have been established to guide the development of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts [4][6] Industry Chain - The energy conservation and emission reduction industry in metallurgy includes manufacturers of energy-saving equipment, technology providers, and software service providers [7] - The upstream supply chain consists of raw material suppliers, component manufacturers, and research institutions, while the downstream market primarily targets the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [7] Current Development - In 2023, the metallurgical industry consumed 680 million tons of standard coal and emitted 1.98 billion tons of CO2, with significant reductions expected in 2024 due to policy support [9][11] - The environmental cost per ton of steel is approximately 138 yuan, with carbon trading revenues estimated at 3.5 billion yuan [11] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the industry include large metallurgical groups like Baowu Steel and Hebei Iron and Steel, which are leading the development of energy-saving technologies [13][16] - Specialized energy-saving technology companies, such as China Metallurgical Group, focus on specific areas like waste heat recovery and flue gas purification [13][18] Future Trends - The dual carbon goals and related policies will continue to drive the metallurgical industry towards stricter energy consumption and emission standards [21] - The adoption of electric furnace short-process steelmaking technology is expected to increase, gradually shifting the industry away from traditional long-process methods [21]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing pressure from weak demand and high costs, leading to a focus on policy-driven capacity optimization to alleviate profitability issues [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index has rebounded by 11.86% since June 23, while the Wind All A Index increased by 6.53% during the same period [1]. - In July, the Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index rose by 9.31%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024, with 21 stocks in the steel sector rising over 10% [4]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Eight steel companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Shougang Co. expecting a net profit of 642 to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% [3]. - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.1 million yuan [2]. - Fushun Special Steel and Hangang Co. are expected to report losses, with Fushun projecting a loss of 260 to 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214.06% to 231.6% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The steel industry has been in a downward cycle for four years, with approximately 30% of steel companies still reporting losses as of the latest financial reports [5]. - The demand for steel, particularly from the real estate sector, has significantly declined, with demand dropping from 377 million tons in March 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 42.9% [5]. - The focus on cost reduction has become prevalent among steel companies, with raw material prices significantly impacting profitability [5]. Group 4: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent central government meetings have emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacity, strengthening expectations for supply contraction in the steel industry [4][6]. - The current round of "anti-involution" policies aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on differentiated control of production based on efficiency and environmental standards [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector has experienced a significant surge, with companies like Anyang Iron & Steel (600569) hitting the daily limit up, and others such as Shengde Xintai (300881) rising over 6% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Anyang Iron & Steel (600569) has reached a daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the stock [1] - Shengde Xintai (300881) has seen an increase of over 6%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the steel industry [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Chongqing Steel (601005), Jiugang Hongxing (600307), and Shandong Steel (600022), have also experienced upward movement in their stock prices [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Henan Steel Group has announced a shift away from low-end, low-price competition, signaling a strategic move towards higher value-added products [1] - The company plans to clarify the weight of special steel business in performance evaluations and profit contributions, indicating a focus on enhancing product quality and profitability [1] - A rigid incentive mechanism will be implemented to drive resources towards high value-added products, suggesting a long-term strategy for industry improvement [1]

Group 1 - Shennong Development expects a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [1] - Sifang New Materials announced that its directors and senior executives collectively reduced their holdings by 80,000 shares, in line with a previously announced reduction plan [1] - Alliance Electronics plans to transfer 3.68% of its shares through a price inquiry, totaling 6.1869 million shares, due to the shareholders' funding needs [1][2] Group 2 - Yongtai Technology clarified that its patent for "a preparation method of lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide" is still valid and has not been declared invalid [3] - Guibao Pet plans to invest 650 million yuan in building an intelligent warehousing and sorting center to enhance operational efficiency [4] - Deep Deep Housing A expects a net profit of 85 million to 120 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1411.70% to 2034.17% [7] Group 3 - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of approximately 98.1 million yuan year-on-year [7] - Tangrenshen reported a June sales revenue of 698 million yuan from pig sales, a year-on-year increase of 26% [9] - Dongfang Zhongke plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3% of its shares due to the financial needs of a major shareholder [10] Group 4 - Weichuang Electric obtained six patents and two software copyrights between April 1 and June 30, 2025 [11] - Zhenai Home plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3% due to the financial needs of a major shareholder [13] - Xingwang Yuda's actual controller intends to reduce its holdings by up to 3% for personal financial needs [15] Group 5 - Guangyun Da intends to acquire 56.03% of Yilian Infinite for 352 million yuan, gaining control of the company [16] - Chao Tu Software's actual controller plans to reduce holdings by up to 2% due to personal financial needs [17] - Weixing Intelligent's actual controller plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.99% for personal financial needs [18] Group 6 - ST Dongshi is facing a bankruptcy reorganization application due to its inability to repay debts, with potential delisting risks if the court accepts the application [19][20] - Tongwei Co. plans to reduce its holdings by up to 1% due to personal financial needs [21] - Borui Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of its drug for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [22] Group 7 - Shuangwei New Materials announced progress in its control change plan, leading to the resumption of its stock trading [24] - Yunnei Power's stock is under risk warning due to false financial disclosures, with a name change to "ST Yun Dong" [26][28]

Key Points - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [1] - The main reasons for the significant profit growth include the continuous recovery in the prices of fluorinated refrigerants and stable growth in production and sales of core products [2] - Haida Group anticipates a net profit of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.64% to 31.76% [3][4] - Huagong Technology expects a net profit of 890 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 42.43% to 52.03% [5][6] - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 2.7 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.19% to 11.16% [7][8] - Saint Farm anticipates a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [13] - Dinglong Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 290 million to 320 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.12% to 46.9% [14] - Yuxiu Capital forecasts a net profit of 1.473 billion to 1.575 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 45% to 55% [15] - Haohua Technology expects a net profit of 590 million to 650 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.30% to 75.50% [16] - Huace Navigation anticipates a net profit of 320 million to 335 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 27.37% to 33.34% [18] - Dajin Heavy Industry expects a net profit of 510 million to 570 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 193.32% to 227.83% [20] - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of approximately 12.71 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [22]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Steel is expected to achieve profitability in the first half of 2025, with a total profit of approximately 293 million yuan, marking an increase of about 1.354 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses are estimated to be approximately 12.71 million yuan and 18.69 million yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of about 981 million yuan and 995 million yuan compared to 2024 [1] - In the second quarter, the net profit attributable to shareholders and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses are expected to be approximately 27.12 million yuan and 36.88 million yuan, showing significant growth of about 41.54 million yuan and 55.06 million yuan compared to the first quarter [1] Group 2: Operational Improvements - The company has optimized production organization to ensure efficient operation of advantageous production lines, achieving a cost reduction of over 60 yuan per ton of steel in the first half of the year [2] - The implementation of a "strategic procurement + open bidding" model has led to an increase of over 200 yuan per ton in the purchase and sale price difference compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Market Strategy - The company has effectively reduced procurement costs by leveraging favorable conditions from a significant drop in major raw material prices and enhancing negotiations with suppliers [2] - By focusing on high value-added products and optimizing product structure, the company has effectively mitigated the downward pressure on product prices, contributing significantly to profit improvement [2] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The positive performance of Shandong Steel reflects the innovation and transformation within China's steel industry, moving from traditional extensive development to a more refined and market-oriented approach [2] - With improvements on the cost side and potential growth on the demand side, the steel industry is expected to continue recovering profitability in the second half of the year, although companies need to remain vigilant to market dynamics [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The average stock price in the A-share market is 11.97 yuan, with 43 stocks priced below 2 yuan, the lowest being Hengli Tui at 0.15 yuan [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3497.48 points, with a notable presence of low-priced stocks [1] - Among the low-priced stocks, 30 out of 43 showed an increase in price, with *ST Huifeng, Yabo Co., and Meibang Fashion leading the gains at 4.65%, 4.35%, and 3.83% respectively [1] Group 2: Low-Priced Stocks Details - The list of stocks priced below 2 yuan includes: - Hengli Tui (0.15 yuan), with a market-to-book ratio of 0.38 [1] - Tui Shi Jiu You (0.17 yuan), with a market-to-book ratio of 2.82 [1] - Zhong Cheng Tui (0.25 yuan), with a market-to-book ratio of 2.17 [1] - The low-priced stocks include 10 ST stocks, accounting for 23.26% of the total [1] Group 3: Performance of Specific Stocks - The top gainers among low-priced stocks include: - *ST Huifeng (1.80 yuan) with a daily increase of 4.65% [2] - Yabo Co. (1.68 yuan) with a daily increase of 4.35% [2] - Meibang Fashion (1.90 yuan) with a daily increase of 3.83% [2] - The top losers include: - Tui Shi Jin Gang (0.53 yuan) with a decrease of 7.02% [1] - Tui Shi Jiu You (0.17 yuan) with a decrease of 5.56% [1] - *ST Baoying (1.98 yuan) with a decrease of 1.00% [2]

股票简称：山东钢铁 证券代码：600022 编号：2025-037 山东钢铁股份有限公司 本次业绩预告未经注册会计师预审计。公司就本次业绩预告与为公司提 供年度审计服务的会计师事务所签字注册会计师进行了预沟通，双方在本次 业绩预告方面不存在分歧。 （二）业绩预告情况 经初步测算，预计 2025 年上半年度扭亏为盈，利润总额 2.93 亿元左右， 比上年同期增利约 13.54 亿元；归属于母公司股东的净利润 1271 万元左右， 实现扭亏为盈，与上年同期相比增利约 9.81 亿元。 预计 2025 年上半年度实现归属于母公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利 润 1869 万元左右，实现扭亏为盈，与上年同期相比增利约 9.95 亿元。 预计 2025 年上半年度每股收益 0.0012 元左右。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 （一）利润总额：-10.61 亿元。归属于母公司股东的净利润：-9.68 亿 元。归属于母公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润：-9.76 亿元。 （二）每股收益：-0.0906 元。 三、业绩预告预审计情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其 ...