Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a favorable combination of fundamentals and policies, making it a good time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reaching 717 CNY/ton, up 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by optimistic market expectations post-holiday and reduced supply from major coal-producing regions [11][30] - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand balance in the short term, with a medium to long-term supply gap expected to persist, reinforcing the investment logic in coal assets [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of February 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal is 717 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5% [6][30] - International coal prices have also risen, with Newcastle's FOB price for Q5500 coal at 81.5 USD/ton, up 6.5% week-on-week [6][30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 84.4%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 81.39%, down 5.3 percentage points [11][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an 18.8% decline [11][50] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 1.854 million tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a smaller increase of 0.235 million tons [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the coal market post-Chinese New Year, driven by supply constraints and inventory depletion, with expectations of significant price increases [9][11]. - Domestic coal prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, while port coal prices are accelerating upward [12][11]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will return to a balanced supply-demand state in 2023-2024, with prices expected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [11][12]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jinko Coal Industry (601001): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Shanxi Coal International (600546): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 17 [2]. - Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 15 [2]. - Yancoal Energy (600188): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 12 [2]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 14 [2]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - China Coal Energy (601898): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - CGN Mining (1164.HK): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE of 108 [2]. - Xinji Energy (601918): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 8 [2]. - Huaibei Mining (600985): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 7 [2]. - Lanhua Sci-Tech (600123): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.9% compared to the 0.4% increase in the CSI 300 index [20][17]. - The thermal coal sub-sector showed the highest increase of 3.0%, while the coking coal sub-sector experienced a decline of 3.9% [20][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal supply is tightening due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a significant decrease in port inventory levels compared to the previous year [11][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot market exposure and recommends focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and high cash flow [12][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a slight decline of 0.05% on February 9, with Jin控电力 leading the losses, while the overall market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.17% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 4123.09, reflecting an increase of 1.41% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14208.44, marking a rise of 2.17% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - 路化科技 (600691) closed at 3.20, up by 2.56% with a trading volume of 399,100 shares and a transaction value of 127 million [1]. - 华阳新材 (600281) closed at 6.10, increasing by 2.35% with a trading volume of 108,900 shares and a transaction value of 66.57 million [1]. - 晋控电力 (000767) led the decline, closing at 3.33, down by 2.63% with a trading volume of 3,746,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.256 billion [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The Shanxi state-owned enterprise reform sector saw a net outflow of 392 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 314 million [2][3]. - The main funds showed a net inflow in 兰花科创 (600123) of 8.12 million, while 山西高速 (000755) had a net inflow of 7.82 million [3].

Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective increase in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.98% [1] - The North China 50 Index increased by 1.36% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 22,494.73 billion yuan, an increase of about 1,037.54 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Shanxi Sector Analysis - The Shanxi sector performed steadily, with an overall increase of 0.61% and a trading volume of 120.25 billion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - Among the 41 stocks in the Shanxi sector, 28 stocks rose, 12 fell, and 1 remained flat [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Jinlihua Electric and Huaxiang Co., both rising over 3%, while Dongjie Intelligent, Luhua Technology, and Huayang New Materials increased by over 2% [1] - Other stocks such as Beifang Copper Industry, Kexin Development, and Shitou Co. saw increases of over 1% [1] - Decliners included Jinkong Power and Lanyan Holdings, both dropping over 2%, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Qianyuan Pharmaceutical fell by more than 1% [1] - Several stocks, including Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Jinbo Biological, experienced milder declines, with losses contained within 1% [1]

Group 1: Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) price increased to 692 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 7 [1] - Datong thermal coal price (Q5500) decreased to 567 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [1] - International thermal coal prices: Newcastle NEWC5500 at 76.3 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week; ARA6000 at 101.6 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Prices - Beijing Tangshan port coking coal price decreased to 1700 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] - Linfen coking coal price decreased to 1570 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 6 [2] - Australian hard coking coal price at 265.6 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption - Sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization at 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week; coking coal mine utilization at 86.67%, down 2.5 percentage points [2] - Coastal provinces' coal consumption decreased by 16.3 million tons/day, down 7.22% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] - Inland provinces' coal consumption decreased by 81.8 million tons/day, down 18.1% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Current coal market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy support [4] - Indonesian government reduced coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, impacting global coal supply [4] - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain constrained, with potential for price recovery due to demand resilience [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Coal sector remains attractive due to high performance, cash flow, and dividends; recommended to focus on quality coal companies [6] - Suggested companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia among others [6] - Emphasis on the importance of coal assets as they are undervalued and have high potential for appreciation [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [2][14] Core Insights - The reduction in coal production in Indonesia has heightened expectations for supply contraction, which is anticipated to positively impact coal prices post-holiday [6][9] - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and Indonesian production cuts [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are expected to be less affected by production limits [9][14] Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - 晋控煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.68 RMB, PE for 2024A is 9, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 山煤国际: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.14 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 潞安环能: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.82 RMB, PE for 2024A is 16, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 华阳股份: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.62 RMB, PE for 2024A is 15, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兖矿能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.44 RMB, PE for 2024A is 11, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中国神华: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 RMB, PE for 2024A is 14, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 陕西煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.31 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中煤能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中广核矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.04 HKD, PE for 2024A is 93, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 新集能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 RMB, PE for 2024A is 8, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 淮北矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 RMB, PE for 2024A is 7, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兰花科创: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.49 RMB, PE for 2024A is 13, rated as "Cautiously Recommended" [2] Market Dynamics - The coal market has seen a slight increase in prices due to ongoing supply constraints and decreasing port inventories, with expectations for a price surge post-holiday as downstream operations resume [9][10] - The report notes that the coal consumption by power plants remains high, despite a week-on-week decrease, indicating strong demand [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal price trends and the performance of coal companies in light of changing market conditions [10][19]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [10][11] - The coal supply is expected to tighten due to domestic supply constraints and Indonesia's reduction in coal production targets, which will support a stable recovery in coal prices throughout the year [10][11] - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] - High-quality coal companies are characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5% [10][11] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, and public funds currently underweight in coal holdings [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 31, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 691 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 74.5 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1780 CNY/ton [31] 2. Coal Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 88.3%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [10][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 8.30 thousand tons/day (-1.8%) [50] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 7.70 thousand tons/day (-3.3%) [50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [13][16] - The thermal coal segment rose by 4.07%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.92% [16] 4. Future Outlook - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating new high-quality capacity planning to meet medium to long-term energy demands [11] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook due to macroeconomic improvements and regulatory changes [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly before the holiday, with expectations for a stronger market post-holiday. Supply has tightened due to the upcoming holiday and production targets being met, while demand has increased due to cold weather affecting power plant consumption [10][11]. - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and a significant decrease in Indonesia's production targets for 2026 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are less affected by production limits [10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jin控煤业 (Jin控 Coal Industry): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 山煤国际 (Shan Coal International): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 潞安环能 (Luan Environmental Energy): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [2]. - 华阳股份 (Huayang Co.): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15 [2]. - 兖矿能源 (Yankuang Energy): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中国神华 (China Shenhua): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 14 [2]. - 陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中煤能源 (China Coal Energy): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE ratio of 113 [2]. - 新集能源 (Xinjie Energy): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 8 [2]. - 淮北矿业 (Huaibei Mining): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 7 [2]. - 兰花科创 (Lanhua Sci-Tech): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.0% compared to a 0.1% increase in the CSI 300 index [17][20]. - Notable performers include 陕西黑猫 (Shaanxi Black Cat) with a 14.50% increase and 盘江股份 (Panjiang Coal) with a 13.25% increase [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply due to production limits and increased demand from power plants, leading to a potential price increase in the coal market [10][11]. - The focus on high dividend yield companies is emphasized as a defensive strategy amid uncertain international conditions [11].