印尼禁止煤炭出口，国内煤炭市场或将紧张，国内煤价将提前止跌企稳。 投资建议。当前煤炭价格已经处于预期底部，估值明显偏低，伴随动力煤长协基准提升、焦煤长协价预 计维持高位，资源优质企业具备长期价值，转型企业具备成长空间，板块估值提升开启，1）当前首 推：中国神华、靖远煤电、电投能源、兖矿能源、中国旭阳集团；2）推荐：陕西煤业、淮北矿业、中 煤能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、兰花科创、盘江股份、平煤股份。 1）事件：根据12月31日印尼政府新规，2022年1月禁止煤炭出口。 2）本次印尼限制煤炭出口，我们认为核心原因在于印尼煤炭产量不及预期，且国内消费量增加，导致 煤炭供不应求。印尼矿产能源部公布最新统计数据显示，截至12月17日印尼煤炭开采量达5.81亿吨，完 成年度产量目标的93%，全年产量预计略低于6.25亿吨目标， 2022 年煤炭产量目标提高到 6.37 ~6.64 亿 吨，但由于国内需求提升，出口潜力将有下降。 3）中国2020年/2021年1-11月进口煤及褐煤30399/29232万吨，其中来自印尼13783/17822万吨，占进口 45%/61%、占国内产量3.6%/4.9%，印尼煤供应对国内影响巨大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that coal companies are expected to report strong earnings growth for 2021, with profit growth rates of 514%, -125% (turning profitable), 475%, and 62% for various companies, indicating a significant improvement in profitability despite a drop in coal prices due to regulatory measures [1] - The coal price has rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal prices exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30% increase from the bottom, driven by export restrictions from Indonesia and mandatory inventory replenishment by power plants [1] - The overall economic growth is expected to stabilize, enhancing demand support, which will benefit coal as a primary energy source, alongside a recovery in the coal-coke-steel industry chain [1] Group 2 - High dividends are anticipated to continue, leading to a long-term increase in coal sector valuations, as companies are expected to disclose new shareholder return plans after March 2022 [2] - The capital expenditure in the coal industry has peaked, and with the trend towards "carbon neutrality," capital spending is expected to decline, optimizing the relationship between capital expenditure, cash flow, financials, profits, and dividends [2] - The coal sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with undervalued stocks, and companies with high dividends and those transitioning to green energy are expected to see valuation increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices have significantly increased since the beginning of the year, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has intervened to stabilize supply and prices, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. The focus for coal stock investments should shift towards high dividends and transformation opportunities throughout the year [1]. Investment Highlights - Since the beginning of the year, coal prices have continued to rise, supported by fundamentals. The spot price of Qinhuangdao (Q5500) coal increased from 790 RMB/ton at the beginning of January to 1070 RMB/ton by the end of January. The rise is attributed to the rapid decline in port coal prices and the inversion of pit coal prices, leading to decreased enthusiasm among traders to pull coal to ports and low port inventories. The sentiment was further catalyzed by Indonesia's announcement to restrict coal exports. Demand has exceeded expectations due to strong electricity consumption and power plant restocking, with economic growth policies expected to further strengthen demand, providing effective support for coal prices [2]. - The NDRC has taken measures to consolidate supply and price stability, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. A meeting held on February 9 emphasized that coal companies should resume normal production and supply, strictly implement supply and price stabilization policies, and regulate pricing behavior. It is believed that the rise in coal prices may pause, but there is no risk of a rapid short-term decline due to factors such as increased demand for coal and electricity from a cold spring and economic growth, as well as the increase in Indonesia's benchmark coal price to 188.4 USD/ton, which translates to a domestic cost of over 1237 RMB/ton, exceeding domestic coal prices, limiting the increase in imported coal supply [2]. Investment Strategy - In 2022, investments in coal stocks should not overly focus on coal prices but rather seek alpha opportunities, as high dividends and transformation present greater potential for increases. Following the volatility in the coal market in 2021, the government has sufficient means to maintain price stability. The significant rise in prices leading to high earnings elasticity is unlikely to occur in 2022. However, the government shows tolerance for relatively high coal prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The long-term contract prices have significantly increased year-on-year, leading to an elevation in corporate profit levels. Value discovery will be the main theme for coal stock investments in 2022. The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal in February 2022 was 725 RMB/ton, and under the new mechanism, high long-term contract prices are expected to be maintained, leading to sustainable optimization in capital expenditure, cash flow, finance, profit, and dividends. New dividend plans are anticipated following the disclosure of annual reports by coal companies in March 2022. Additionally, the government encourages the construction of photovoltaic projects to address mining subsidence, suggesting that some coal companies may leverage local resources to acquire green energy projects, accelerating transformation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a projected bottom, with valuations significantly low. With the increase in benchmark long-term contract prices for thermal coal and expected high prices for coking coal, high-quality resource companies possess long-term value, while transformation companies have growth potential. The sector is set to see valuation increases. The main investment themes for the year include high dividends, green energy transformation, and growth-oriented coal chemical projects. Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Jingyuan Coal Electricity, Energy Investment, Yanzhou Coal, China Xuyang Group, and Baofeng Energy. Additionally, high-quality resource companies recommended are Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Huaibei Mining, China Coal Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Lanhua Sci-Tech, Panjiang Coal and Electricity, and Pingdingshan Coal [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for coal in preparation for the summer peak is starting, suggesting that coal prices may rebound from their lows. Despite weak demand, the marginal improvement in demand could support prices [1][6]. - The report highlights that the coking coal market is under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand, with expectations of continued price weakness in the short term [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the investment value of stable high-dividend coal companies amid increasing uncertainty in international markets, suggesting that leading companies with strong cash flow and low debt are well-positioned for growth [7][10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes that coal prices are expected to touch bottom and rebound due to seasonal demand and decreasing port inventories, despite ongoing weak demand [6]. Market Performance - As of May 16, the coal sector saw a weekly increase of 1.6%, outperforming the broader market indices [11][13]. Company Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow growth like Jinkong Coal [2][10]. - It also mentions that companies like Shanxi Coal International and Huayang Co. are expected to see year-on-year production growth [2][10]. Price Trends - The report provides data on coal prices, indicating a decline in prices across various regions, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 thermal coal price reported at 618 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [7][8].

股票代码：600123 股票简称：兰花科创 公告编号：临2025-022 债券代码：138934 债券简称：23兰创01 债券代码：115227 债券简称：23兰创02 山西兰花科技创业股份有限公司 关于参加山西辖区上市公司2025年投资者 网上集体接待日活动的公告 特别提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担个别及连带责任。 ●会议召开时间：2025年5月20日14：00-17：00 ●会议召开方式：网络直播方式 ●会议召开地址："全景路演"，网址：http://rs.p5w.net 为进一步强化公司规范运作水平，增强公司透明度，加强与投资 者的互动交流，持续提升公司投资者关系管理水平，山西兰花科技创 业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）将参加由山西证监局、山西省上市 公司协会与深圳市全景网络有限公司联合举办的"山西辖区上市公司 2025年投资者网上集体接待日暨年报业绩说明会"，现将相关事项公告 如下： 二、参加人员 届时公司董事会秘书苗伟先生、总会计师邢跃宏先生将在线就公 司2024年度业绩、公司治理、发展战略、 经营状 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Lanhua Technology Entrepreneurship Co., Ltd. has developed a 2025 valuation enhancement plan due to its stock price being below the audited net asset value per share for 12 consecutive months, aiming to improve investor returns and enhance company value [2][3]. Group 1: Valuation Enhancement Plan Trigger and Approval - The company’s stock price has been below the audited net asset value per share for 12 consecutive months, necessitating the formulation of a valuation enhancement plan [3]. - The board of directors approved the valuation enhancement plan on May 13, 2025, without requiring shareholder meeting approval [5]. Group 2: Specific Contents of the Valuation Enhancement Plan - The company will focus on optimizing its coal and coal chemical industries, enhancing operational efficiency, and reducing costs to promote steady growth [7]. - The company has a commitment to return at least 30% of its net profit to shareholders in cash dividends for 2025, continuing its tradition of shareholder returns [8]. - The company plans to strengthen investor relations through enhanced communication and regular performance briefings to improve market understanding and investor confidence [9]. Group 3: Information Disclosure and Market Engagement - The company will improve the quality of its information disclosure, ensuring it is timely, accurate, and comprehensive, while also increasing the transparency of its operations [10]. - The company aims to engage in share buybacks and encourage major shareholders to increase their holdings to bolster investor confidence and stabilize market value [11]. Group 4: Board's Explanation and Evaluation Arrangements - The board believes the valuation enhancement plan is reasonable and feasible, aligning with the company's operational status and future development plans [13]. - The company will evaluate the implementation of the valuation enhancement plan annually and report on its effectiveness during performance briefings [14].

一、估值提升计划的触发情形及审议程序 （一）触发情形 股票代码：600123 股票简称：兰花科创 公告编号：临 2025-021 债券代码：138934 债券简称：23 兰创 01 债券代码：115227 债券简称：23 兰创 02 山西兰花科技创业股份有限公司 2025 年度估值提升计划 特别提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ● 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日收盘，山西兰花科技创业股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）股票已连续 12 个月内每个交易日收盘价均 低于最近一个会计年度经审计的每股归属于公司普通股股东的净资 产，经公司董事会审议通过制定了 2025 年度估值提升计划。 ●公司将继续坚持煤炭和煤化工两大主导产业，积极回报投资 者，加强和完善投资者关系管理，努力提升信息披露质量和水平，推 动控股股东增持公司股份和公司回购股份，不断提升公司投资价值。 ●本估值提升计划仅为公司行动计划，不代表公司对业绩、股价、 重大事件等任何指标或事项的承诺。公司业绩及二级市场表现受到宏 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation in the current market environment, highlighting a basket of financial policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations [1][2] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "golden era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rebound due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [2][10] Coal Market Overview - As of May 9, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 630 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton or 3.08% from the previous week [1][13] - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 81.1%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points [1][13] - In April 2025, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 16.41% [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants reached 1.734 million tons, an increase of 235,000 tons week-on-week [1][9] - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 33.051 million tons, up 201,800 tons or 6.5% [1][9] - The operating rates for methanol and urea production were 84.1% and 87.35%, respectively, indicating a stable demand for coal in chemical production [1][9] Investment Logic - The report outlines a robust dividend investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that they remain a preferred choice for institutional investors due to their stable returns and low risk associated with state-owned enterprises [2][10] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with expectations for price recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve post-policy implementation [2][10] Key Indicators - The coal sector's PE ratio was reported at 11.6, and the PB ratio was 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [5][7] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10] Focused Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on different investment themes: - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy - Cyclical logic: Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Energy, Electric Power Energy - Growth logic: Guanghui Energy, New Hope Energy [2][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

2025 年 05 月 09 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 煤炭/煤炭开采 兰花科创（600123.SH） Q1 价跌致煤炭及煤化工盈利走弱，关注煤炭成长性 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 Q1 价跌致煤炭及煤化工盈利走弱，关注煤炭成长性，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 一季报，2024 年实现营收 117 亿元，同比-12%，归 母净利润 7.2 亿元，同比-65.8%，扣非归母净利润 7 亿元，同比-66.8%；其中 2024Q4 实现营收 32.8 亿元，环比+11.4%，归母净利润 0.1 亿元，环比-93%， 扣非归母净利润-0.1 亿元，环比-104.3%。2025Q1 实现营收 21.9 亿元，同比-3.1%， 归母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比-75.3%，扣非归母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比-75.6%。考 虑到煤炭及煤化工产品价格下滑，我们下调 2025-2026 年盈利预测并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 3.1/4.6/5.6 亿元（2025-2026 年前值 ...