Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a shift towards "anti-involution," leading to an increase in per-package pricing and improved profitability for companies [1][3] - The demand for e-commerce logistics remains resilient, supported by robust internet infrastructure and diverse e-commerce platforms in China, which is the world's largest e-commerce market [1] - New e-commerce models such as live streaming and short video sales are rapidly developing, creating a symbiotic relationship between e-commerce and express delivery [1] Industry Growth Characteristics - The express delivery sector has entered a phase of moderate growth, with core drivers shifting from "penetration rate increase" to "structural growth," characterized by: 1. Package smallization due to increased repurchase frequency of affordable goods [2] 2. Rising demand for reverse logistics driven by higher e-commerce return rates [2] 3. Expansion of new models like live e-commerce and community group buying [2] Market Performance and Projections - In 2024, China's online retail sales of physical goods reached 13.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, maintaining its position as the largest online retail market globally [2] - The express delivery volume and revenue for 2024 were 174.5 billion packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% [2] - By November 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 180.74 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Pricing and Profitability Trends - In October 2025, the average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.48 yuan, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, but the decline in revenue per package is slowing [3] - Major companies like Shentong and Yunda reported increases in per-package revenue of 7.4% and 4.5%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" pricing policy [3] Industry Consolidation and Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the express delivery industry is increasing, with the market share of the top eight companies (CR8) reaching 87.0% by October 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Leading companies are optimizing the competitive environment through the "anti-involution" policy, resulting in simultaneous increases in market share and profitability [3] Cost Structure and Efficiency Improvements - For SF Express, labor and transportation costs accounted for 84% of total per-package costs in 2024, with significant potential for cost reduction in the last-mile delivery segment [4] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles could reduce transportation costs per package from 0.16 yuan to 0.05 yuan, representing a cost reduction of 69% [4][5] Investment Opportunities - Despite a recent adjustment in stock prices for express delivery companies, the continuous improvement in profitability presents significant investment opportunities [6] - For instance, SF Express's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio was 17.60 as of December 17, 2025, down from a peak of 121.04 yuan in 2021, indicating potential for recovery and growth [6]

Core Insights - YTO Express has established a dual-track strategy focusing on "domestic steady growth" and "overseas breakthroughs," enhancing its competitive advantage in the express delivery industry [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - YTO Express has achieved a market share in express delivery that surpasses Yunda, becoming the second-largest player in the industry, with continued growth in parcel volume expected through 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company has invested in digitalization and smart logistics, enhancing its operational efficiency and service quality [2][4] Group 2: International Expansion - YTO Express is expanding its international express and freight services, focusing on high-quality routes such as Japan-China and Australia-China, with an expected overall business volume increase of over 80% in these premium routes by 2024 [2] - The company is also developing its international supply chain services across various industries, including apparel, automotive, and electronics, aiming to create an integrated logistics service capability [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Efficiency - YTO Express plans to invest over 6.7 billion yuan in 2024, leading the "Tongda" express companies in capital expenditure, which will support capacity optimization and operational efficiency [3] - The company has successfully reduced its single ticket transportation cost to 0.42 yuan in 2024 and 0.37 yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a focus on cost optimization [3] Group 4: Technological Advancements - YTO Express is exploring advanced technologies such as unmanned vehicles and smart delivery cabinets to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce last-mile delivery costs [4] - The company has improved its service quality and customer experience through differentiated products and marketing innovations, leading to increased brand value and premium pricing [4]

12月25日，圆通速递盘中上涨2.03%，截至13:53，报17.08元/股，成交1.38亿元，换手率0.24%，总市值 584.57亿元。 截至9月30日，圆通速递股东户数3.50万，较上期减少33.33%；人均流通股97683股，较上期增加 48.93%。2025年1月-9月，圆通速递实现营业收入541.56亿元，同比增长9.69%；归母净利润28.77亿元， 同比减少1.83%。 分红方面，圆通速递A股上市后累计派现62.00亿元。近三年，累计派现32.88亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，圆通速递十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股5698.93万股，相比上期增加156.34万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第十大流 通股东，持股2928.79万股，相比上期减少145.52万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 圆通速递今年以来股价涨23.50%，近5个交易日跌0.93%，近20日涨0.53%，近60日跌9.63%。 资料显示，圆通速递股份有限公司位于上海市青浦区华新镇新协路28号，成立日期1992年12月22日，上 市日期2000年6月8日，公司主营业务涉 ...

（原标题：圆通速递现4笔大宗交易 总成交金额2.73亿元） 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为2.10亿元，近5日增加1327.20万元，增幅为6.74%。（数据宝） 12月24日圆通速递大宗交易一览 | 成交量 （万股） | 成交金额 （万元） | 成交价格 （元） | 相对当日 收盘折溢价 （%） | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 850.00 | 13379.00 | 15.74 | -5.97 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | | 850.00 | 13379.00 | 15.74 | -5.97 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | | 20.00 | 314.80 | 15.74 | -5.97 | 中信建投证券股份有限公司北京望京证券营业部 | 机构专用 | | 17.00 | 267.58 | 15.74 | -5.97 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 圆通速递12月24日大宗交易平台共发生4笔成交，合计成交量1737.00万股，成交金额2.73亿元。成交价 格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [15] Core Insights - The logistics industry is expected to see two core trends in 2026: "Advantage Going Abroad" and "Ecosystem Restructuring," which will present significant investment opportunities. The restructuring of supply chains is anticipated to deepen, with the acceleration of Chinese industries going abroad, driving sustained demand in emerging markets. Concurrently, the domestic market's competitive order is being restructured, pushing the industry towards high-quality development [5][10][27]. Summary by Sections Cross-Border Logistics: Order Restructuring and New Opportunities - The transition from "goods going abroad" to "capital going abroad" is underway, with foreign investment becoming a core driver of logistics demand. The standardization and replicability of processes in bulk logistics and e-commerce express delivery present explosive demand potential [11][35]. E-commerce Express Delivery Going Abroad - Chinese e-commerce platforms are expanding overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, where the e-commerce penetration rates are significantly lower than in China. The report highlights that the average package volume in Southeast Asia is about 26 items per year, and in Latin America, it is approximately 11 items per year, indicating substantial growth potential [59][64]. Bulk Logistics Going Abroad - The report discusses the "infrastructure for resources" model, where bulk logistics follows Chinese mining companies into Africa. This approach is expected to drive high growth in local freight demand and rapid expansion of road assets [11][35]. Domestic E-commerce Express: Demand-Side Reform - The report notes that the previous low-price competition in the e-commerce ecosystem is being replaced by rational competition, which is expected to improve the industry landscape. Leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are anticipated to see valuation recovery as the competitive order stabilizes [12][30]. Bulk Supply Chain: Bottoming Out and Price Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom in terms of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with signs of a cyclical turnaround. The report suggests that the easing of liquidity and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies will lead to improved profitability in the sector [13][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report prioritizes investment in: 1. Non-US cross-border logistics, benefiting from the expansion of Chinese industries into emerging markets, with key targets being Jitu Express and Jiayou International [10][30]. 2. Domestic e-commerce express delivery, with a focus on leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to see valuation adjustments [10][30]. 3. Bulk supply chains, with a recommendation to invest in companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao, as the industry is poised for a cyclical recovery [10][30].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant block trading activity on December 24, with a total transaction value of 2.774 billion yuan across 88 stocks, indicating notable investor interest in specific companies [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity - The top three stocks by transaction value were Aorikin (3.64 billion yuan), YTO Express (2.73 billion yuan), and Wuliangye (2.22 billion yuan) [1]. - Among the stocks traded, 8 were sold at par value, 2 at a premium, and 78 at a discount, highlighting varied investor sentiment [1]. Group 2: Institutional Buying - The leading institutional buying amounts were for Aorikin (3.64 billion yuan), YTO Express (2.7 billion yuan), and Tuojing Technology (1.08 billion yuan) [2]. - Other notable institutional purchases included Zhongdian Electric (52.07 million yuan) and Wulian Media (43.06 million yuan) [2]. Group 3: Institutional Selling - The top stocks sold by institutions included YTO Express (2.73 billion yuan) and Wuliangye (2.22 billion yuan) [3]. - Additional significant sales were recorded for Lixun Precision (24.01 million yuan) and Jintian Titanium (15.47 million yuan) [3].

12月24日，圆通速递大宗交易成交1737万股，成交额2.73亿元，占当日总成交额的62.14%，成交价 15.74元，较市场收盘价16.74元折价5.97%。 ...

Core Insights - November is the peak season for the express delivery industry in China, influenced by events like "Double 11" and overseas "Black Friday," making it a crucial indicator for the following year's market dynamics [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SF Express reported a revenue of 20.66 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 9.88%, with a business volume of 1.534 billion packages, up 20.13% [3] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 6.474 billion yuan, growing 11.08% year-on-year, with a business volume of 2.886 billion packages, an increase of 13.55% [3] - Shentong Express saw a significant revenue increase of 33.10% to 6.028 billion yuan, with a business volume of 2.502 billion packages, up 14.67% [3][4] - Yunda Express reported a slight revenue increase of 2.17% to 4.698 billion yuan, but its business volume declined by 4.19% to 2.175 billion packages, making it the only major company to experience a decrease in volume [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is witnessing a clear performance divergence among major listed companies, with a shift from price competition to a focus on service quality and logistics efficiency [2] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a recovery in single-package revenue, with a reduction in price wars that have plagued the industry [7] - A price increase trend began in August 2025, with November data showing improvements in single-package revenue compared to July, indicating a stabilization in pricing [8] - The industry is transitioning from a model of "price for volume" to one of "value competition," with a focus on differentiated services and cost efficiency [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the express delivery industry is experiencing a recovery in performance due to price increases and seasonal volume growth, with a recommendation for leading companies like SF Holding and Zhongtong Express [1][5] - In November, the express delivery business volume grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The average unit price for SF Holding increased by 0.29 yuan in November, indicating a shift from scale-driven growth to value-driven growth, which is beneficial for profit margin recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The express delivery industry saw a significant price increase of 1.9% month-on-month in November, with the average unit price at 7.62 yuan, although it remains down 8.3% year-on-year [4] - The competitive landscape is changing, with a focus on high-quality development and a notable shift in market dynamics due to the "anti-involution" trend, which has led to price recovery since August [5] - The market share for express delivery companies from January to November shows that Zhongtong holds 15.6%, Shentong 13.1%, Yunda 13.0%, and SF Holding 8.4%, with SF Holding gaining 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities recommends focusing on leading companies in the express delivery industry, particularly SF Holding and Zhongtong Express, due to expected improvements in operational and cash flow performance as the industry undergoes significant changes and price recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In November, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in business volume, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.82 trillion yuan from January to November, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales growth [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - In November, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express delivered 2.886 billion parcels, Shentong Express 2.502 billion, Yunda Express 2.175 billion, and SF Holding 1.534 billion. SF Holding showed the highest growth rate at 20.13% [3]. - For the cumulative business volume from January to November, the figures were: YTO Express 28.26 billion parcels, Shentong Express 23.64 billion, Yunda Express 23.45 billion, and SF Holding 15.16 billion, with SF Holding leading in growth rate at 27.25% [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry saw a 1.9% month-on-month increase in average pricing in November, with the average price per parcel at 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [4]. - SF Holding's average price per parcel increased by 0.29 yuan month-on-month to 13.47 yuan, while Shentong Express's price rose by 0.23 yuan to 2.41 yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce, despite a downward trend in the average value of goods per parcel [5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is leading to price recovery and a shift towards high-quality development, suggesting a potential acceleration in market differentiation among companies [5].