Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company's business volume grew steadily, achieving 12.2 billion parcels in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, slightly exceeding the industry average [2]. - Despite a decline in single-ticket revenue due to intense price competition, the company managed to maintain a relatively high level of delivery costs for its franchisees [2]. - The company continues to optimize its single-ticket costs, which decreased from 2.19 yuan to 2.11 yuan year-on-year, helping to offset revenue declines from price wars [2]. - The regulatory environment is shifting towards reducing "involution" in the industry, suggesting a potential easing of price competition in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 65.79 billion, 73.97 billion, and 81.85 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 4.21 billion, 5.16 billion, and 6.22 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.22, 1.50, and 1.81 yuan for the years 2024-2026 [3][4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 12.5, 10.2, and 8.4 times, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4]. Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive international supply chain integrator, involved in express logistics, technology, aviation, finance, and trade [5]. - As of the end of 2023, the company operates over 5,100 branches and more than 80,000 service points across all provincial-level cities in China [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.57 billion with a year-on-year growth of 20.6% in the first half of 2024, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the industry's demand growth as a highlight within the domestic demand sector, suggesting that the trend of "anti-involution" will benefit the performance elasticity of express delivery companies [1]. - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits of 4.39 billion, 5.02 billion, and 5.72 billion for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 1.27, 1.46, and 1.66, and PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 respectively [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.14 billion, a 21.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.04 billion, reflecting a 9.4% increase year-on-year [1][7]. - The express delivery business generated a net profit of 2.09 billion in the first half of 2024, marking a 13.48% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company completed a business volume of 12.2 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.81% [1]. Business Segmentation - Express delivery revenue reached 29.2 billion, up 19.8% year-on-year, while freight forwarding revenue increased by 37.4% to 1.98 billion, and air transport revenue grew by 24.9% to 770 million [1]. - The report highlights a focus on refined management and cost reduction, with significant improvements in operational efficiency and cost per ticket [1]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at 19 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current price of 15.26 yuan [1][3]. - The valuation method applied is a 15 times PE on the expected net profit for 2024, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 66 billion [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.565 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.988 billion yuan, up 6.84% year-on-year. The express delivery segment contributed a net profit of 2.097 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.48% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The company has shown improvements in operational efficiency, with a significant reduction in service delays and customer complaints, indicating enhanced customer satisfaction and operational effectiveness [4][5] - The ongoing digital transformation efforts are beginning to yield results, with a notable increase in market share and profitability, suggesting a strong competitive position in the industry [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.565 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.988 billion yuan. The express delivery segment's net profit was 2.097 billion yuan, with a market share of 15.2% [4][5] - Quarterly net profits for the express delivery segment were 0.96 billion yuan in Q2 2023, 0.86 billion yuan in Q3 2023, 1.13 billion yuan in Q4 2023, 0.99 billion yuan in Q1 2024, and 1.10 billion yuan in Q2 2024, showing a consistent upward trend [4][10] Operational Metrics - The company has improved service metrics, with a 23% reduction in delivery delays and over 30% decrease in false delivery rates. Customer complaint rates have also decreased by 4% [4][5] - The company operates a robust logistics network with nearly 7,000 trunk vehicles and 73 self-operated transfer centers, indicating strong infrastructure support for its operations [4][8] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.37 billion yuan, 5.25 billion yuan, and 6.10 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.8, 9.8, and 8.5 [5][9] - The express delivery business is expected to maintain a net profit margin of approximately 0.170 yuan per package in 2024, with projected growth in profitability over the next few years [9][10]

2024 年 8 月 28 日圆通速递投资者调研会议纪要 调研时间：2024年8月28日下午15:30--16:45 调研方式：电话调研 调研人员：长江证券、睿远基金、汇添富基金、高毅资产、大成基金、易方达基 金、富国基金、广发基金、诺德基金、招商基金、博时基金、汇丰晋信、工银瑞 信、拾贝投资、宽远资产、慎知资产、正心谷资本、敦和资产、太平资产、友邦 人寿、中英人寿、中信证券、国海证券、中金资管、贝莱德基金、碧云资本、 NeubergerBerman、Fidelity等近100家投资和研究机构。 公司管理层： 董事兼总裁：潘水苗 副总裁兼财务负责人：王丽秀 董事局秘书：张龙武 一、由公司管理层简要介绍公司 2024 年上半年、第二季度经营情况及未来经营 计划 2024 年上半年公司快递业务完成量 122.03 亿件，同比增长 24.81%，超出行 业平均增速 1.7 个百分点，业务规模和份额持续提升。同时，公司实现营业收入 325.65 亿元，较 2023 年同期增长 20.61%，经营性现金流净额 23.11 亿元。上半 年公司实现归属于母公司股东净利润 19.88 亿元，同比增长 6.84%。 2024 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|圆通速递（600233） H1 业绩增长稳健，单票成本持续优化 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1，公司实现营收 325.65 亿元，同比增长 20.61%，实现归母 净利润 19.88 亿元，同比增长 6.84%。其中 2024Q2 公司实现营收 171.37 亿元，同比增长 21.66%，实现归母净利润 10.44 亿元，同比增长 9.40%。 |分析师及联系人 李蔚 SAC：S0590522120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 圆通速递(600233) H1 业绩增长稳健，单票成本持续优化 股价相对走势 -30% -10% 10% 30% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 圆通速递 沪深300 相关报告 1、《圆通速递（600233）：数字化赋能助力， 成长前景可期》2024.05.15 扫码查看更多 事件 公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1，公司实现营收 325.65 亿元，同比增长 20.61%， 实现归母净利润 19.88 亿元，同比增长 6.84%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a significant increase in revenue and profit, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 32.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.61%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.988 billion yuan, up 6.84% year-on-year [3] - The company has maintained a strong market position with a business volume of 12.203 billion parcels in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.81% and a market share increase of 0.21 percentage points to 15.22% [3] - The company has successfully reduced its single parcel cost, achieving a new low, while maintaining stable profitability despite industry price competition [4][6] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.565 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.988 billion yuan, and a net profit from express delivery of 2.097 billion yuan, showing respective year-on-year increases of 20.61%, 6.84%, and 13.48% [3] - The company’s single parcel revenue in H1 2024 was 2.34 yuan, down 0.10 yuan year-on-year, while the core cost per parcel was 2.11 yuan, down 0.08 yuan year-on-year, indicating effective cost management [4][6] - The company’s projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 66.344 billion yuan, 74.002 billion yuan, and 82.373 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 11% [7][8] Operational Highlights - The company has significantly improved service quality, with a year-on-year reduction in delivery delays by 23%, loss rates by over 40%, and complaint rates by 4% in H1 2024 [6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its infrastructure and expanding its international market presence, with capital expenditures of 3.778 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.37% [7] - The company is actively pursuing a "going global" strategy, expanding its service network internationally, particularly in key countries and regions [7] Profitability Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.22 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.69 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.29, 10.26, and 8.88 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.565 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.988 billion yuan, up 6.8% [5] - The express delivery business showed steady profit growth, with a total business volume of 12.203 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [5] - The company is enhancing its network competitiveness through ongoing projects and digitalization, leading to improved service quality and reduced customer complaints [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.565 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.988 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.6% and 6.8% [5] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 17.137 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.044 billion yuan, up 9.4% [5] Business Operations - The express delivery business achieved a volume of 6.635 billion pieces in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.75% [5] - The average transportation cost per piece decreased to 0.43 yuan, down 0.04 yuan year-on-year, while the average transfer cost was 0.28 yuan, down 0.02 yuan [5] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 4.353 billion, 5.359 billion, and 6.116 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.9%, 23.1%, and 14.1% respectively [5] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 12x for 2024, which is below the historical average, indicating potential for growth [5]

股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 圆通速递 交通运输 -24% -19% -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 2023-08 2023-11 2024-01 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 圆通速递(600233) 2024 年 8 月 27 日 经营稳中有进，2Q 快递业务归母利润同比增 15% ⚫ 圆通速递披露 2024 年中报 圆通速递披露 2024 年中报，上半年公司营业收入 325.6 亿元， 同比增长 20.6%，归母净利润 19.9 亿元，同比增长 6.8%，其中二季 度公司营业收入 171.4 亿元，同比增长 21.7%，实现归母净利润 10.4 亿元，同比增长 9.4%。 ⚫ 上半年快递单量增速跑赢行业，单票收入仅小幅下降 上半年中国快递行业保持快速增长，公司深耕快递主业，持续推 动数字化转型全面升级，提升品牌价值，单量达到 122.03 亿件，同 比增长 24.8%，超过行业平均增速 1.7pct ...

圆通速递 (600233.SH) 买进（Buy） 2024 年 08 月 28 日 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 18 上半年收入增长两成，竞争格局优于同业 结论与建议： ◼ 公司业绩：公司发布2024年半年报，2024H1实现营收325.6亿元， YOY+20.6%；录得归母净利润19.9亿元，YOY+6.8%；扣非后净利润19.0亿 元，YOY+6.3%，符合预期。 其中，2Q单季度公司实现营收171.4亿元，YOY+21.7%；录得归母净利润 10.4亿元，YOY+9.4%；扣非后净利润9.9亿元，YOY+9.3%。 ◼ 上半年公司件量增速快于行业，带动收入增长近两成。2024 年上半年公 司快递业务完成量达 122.0 亿件，同比增长 24.8%，超出行业平均增速 1.7pcts。得益于业务规模增长，公司快递业务实现营业收入 292.2 亿元， 同比增长 19.8%，实现归母净利润 21.0 亿元，同比增长 13.5%。其他业 务方面，公司货代业务、航空业务分别实现收入 19.8、7.7 亿元，YOY 分别增长 37.4%、24.9%，主要系公司提供的跨国货运业务量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved rapid growth in Q2 2024, with revenue of 32.57 billion yuan (+20.6%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan (+6.8%) for the first half of 2024. In Q2 alone, revenue was 17.14 billion yuan (+21.7%) and net profit was 1.04 billion yuan (+9.4%) [1][5]. - The volume of packages handled increased significantly, with a total of 12.20 billion packages in the first half of 2024 (+24.8%), surpassing the industry growth rate by 1.7 percentage points. The market share increased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.4% in Q2 2024 [1][9]. - The company focused on cost optimization, leading to a decrease in transportation costs per package by 8.8% to 0.39 yuan and a reduction in center operation costs by 6.3% to 0.26 yuan in Q2 2024 [1][10]. - Capital expenditure increased, with 2.70 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 and 1.30 billion yuan in Q2, compared to 2.26 billion yuan and 1.09 billion yuan in the same periods of the previous year. The company is also expanding its international business, with a 65.5% increase in revenue from international express and parcel services [1][10]. Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.36 billion yuan, 5.17 billion yuan, and 6.00 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +17%, +19%, and +16% [1][10]. - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: 2024E at 66.10 billion yuan (+14.6%), 2025E at 74.04 billion yuan (+12.0%), and 2026E at 82.19 billion yuan (+11.0%) [2][11].