作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大 数 据（www.gogudata.com） 美国 "对等"关税震撼全球金融市场。隔夜，美股 三大股指均刷新近 5年来最大单日跌幅纪录 ， 美元指数一日暴跌近 2%，10年期美债收益 率 盘中一度跌破 4%，创下自去年10月以来的最低水平。 但黄金稳如泰山。 昨日， COMEX黄金下跌不足1%，现价超3130美元/盎司，较年初的2640美元仍上涨18.8%，引发关注。 此前疯狂的铜也崩了，昨日大跌 4.5%，但今年以来仍大涨19.75%（期间最大涨幅高达34%），压过黄金之表现。 那么，接下来的铜怎么看？又孕育着什么机会呢？ 01 今年 3月26日，美铜刷新历史新高，伦铜则超过10000美元，随后迎来一波剧烈调整。而此前轰轰烈烈的大涨，又是为何？我们不妨分阶段复 盘一下背后的驱动因素。 去年 11月初至12月，国际铜价迎来一波流畅下跌，回到当年8月担忧美国经济衰退时的水平。彼时，市场情绪悲观，交易 特朗普 上台，会兑 现竞选承诺，对外普征高额关税，扰动全球经济增长，进而影响铜需求。 翻年之后，铜价止跌快速上行（ 1月2日-1月16日），其核心逻辑是 市场对特朗普关税政策预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Internationally, there are concerns about economic recession risks and the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. Domestically, policies are promoting the use of intelligent terminal consumer goods. Fundamentally, the processing fees for copper concentrates continue to decline, and the supply of raw materials may become tighter. The domestic supply may decrease due to smelter maintenance and import window closure. On the demand side, the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and positive macro - policies are expected to boost demand, but the impact of rising copper prices on downstream purchasing should not be ignored. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply, steadily increasing demand, and positive expectations. In the options market, the sentiment is relatively balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars converging below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,890 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,695 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The spread between the main contract months was 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 196,044 lots, down 2,275 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 6,313 lots, up 905 lots. The LME copper inventory was 213,275 tons, up 1,900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cathode copper inventory was 235,296 tons, down 21,032 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 130,379 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 80,055 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot price was 80,115 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 66 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 165 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 71 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons, down 34.88 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 24.14 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,380 yuan/metal ton, up 110 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 71,080 yuan/metal ton, up 110 yuan. The processing fees for crude copper in the south and north were 1,100 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively, up 250 yuan and 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 124.20 million tons, up 10.90 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 57,590 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 227.28 million tons, up 13.23 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 436.20 billion yuan, down 5,646.38 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 10,719.74 billion yuan, down 89,560.48 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402,800 pieces, up 521,990,500 pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.02%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 14.76%, up 0.0035 percentage points. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.11, up 0.0426 [2] Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented on April 2. The EU has a counter - measure plan. Fed officials are concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 points from February. The Ministry of Commerce promotes the work of consumer goods replacement. The added value of the above - scale electronic information manufacturing industry from January to February increased by 10.6% year - on - year. New energy vehicle companies released their March sales results, with some achieving significant growth [2]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 中国最大的铜产品加工企业江西铜业（600362.SH）盈利能力仍然在提升。 最新披露的2024年年度报告显示，江西铜业实现营业收入约5209亿元，较上年略有下降；归属于母公司 股东的净利润（以下简称"归母净利润"）接近70亿元，同比增长逾7%；扣除非经常性损益的净利润 （简称"扣非净利润"）约83亿元，同比增长约54%。 归母净利润与扣非净利润之间相差约13亿元，源于非经常性损益。2024年，公司期货平仓亏损，投资净 收益出现大额亏损。 2024年，江西铜业财务承压。截至2024年底，公司货币资金303.76亿元，较上年末减少约50亿元，对应 的债务增加百亿左右。（均不含购买理财、关联方存款等） 投资收益拖累净利增速 江西铜业经营业绩继续保持了增长。 年报显示，2024年，江西铜业实现营业收入5209.28亿元，同比微降0.18%；归母净利润69.62亿元，同 比增长7.03%；扣非净利润82.87亿元，同比增长54.22%。 此前的2022年、2023年，公司实现的营业收入分别为4799.38亿元、5218.93亿元，同比增长8.40%、 8.74%；归母净利润分别为5 ...

Group 1: Jiangxi Copper (JXC) - The company reported a net profit of 6.9 billion RMB for 2024, with earnings per share of 2.0 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2-3% [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net profit reached 8.3 billion RMB, a 26% increase year-on-year, aligning with expectations and exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] - The company announced a dividend of 0.698 RMB per share, with a payout ratio exceeding 35% [1] - The 2025 profit forecast was adjusted down by 2%, while the 2026 forecast was raised by 28%, incorporating the latest copper price predictions [1] - As a pure copper play, Jiangxi Copper is expected to benefit from high copper prices, maintaining recurring net profits in the range of 8.8 to 9.0 billion RMB [1] - The H-share valuation is attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 5 times for 2025, and the target price is maintained at 21.8 HKD [1] Group 2: Jiumaojiu (9922.HK) - The company reported revenue and net profit for the second half of 2024 at 3 billion RMB and 16 million RMB, respectively, in line with previous profit warnings [3] - The net profit was 32 million RMB lower than market expectations due to higher-than-expected impairment losses [3] - Restaurant profitability exceeded expectations, with improved gross margins and lower rental expense ratios [3] - The company declared a dividend of 0.02 HKD, with a total payout ratio of approximately 92.5% for 2025 [3] - No specific store opening targets were set, with plans to adjust based on market conditions to ensure satisfactory performance [3] Group 3: Aikang Medical (1789.HK) - The company reported revenue of 689 million RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.8%, and a net profit of 135 million RMB, up 172% [18] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 20%, with gross margins improving due to increased sales of volume-based procurement products [19] - The company aims to capture more market share in top-tier hospitals, with market share in the top 10 hospitals increasing from 8% to 19% [20] - Overseas revenue grew by 21%, with a goal to increase the overseas revenue share from 20% to 30% over the next five years [21] - The second-generation knee joint robotic system is expected to receive regulatory approval in 2025, contributing to revenue growth [22]

江西铜业 20250328 摘要 Q&A 江西铜业 2024 年的财务表现如何？ 江西铜业 2024 年实现惠民净利润 69.69 亿元，同比增长 7%。其中，第四季度 实现净利润 19.78 亿元，同比增长 27%，环比增长 45%。扣非归母净利润同比增 长 88%。 • 江西铜业 2024 年一级铜产量同比增长 9.28%至 222.9 万吨，黄金产量增长 4.99%至 118.2 吨，但白银因恒邦事故减产。硫酸和铜加工产品分别增长 1.4%和 4.21%。自产铜矿产量略降 1.14%至 19.97 万吨。 • 上饶铜箔项目一期投产约 3 万吨，未达满产，二期取消，最终产能预计 5 万吨。哈萨克斯坦钨矿项目已试生产，四季度产 2000 吨，2025 年计划产 7,000 吨。墨西哥选矿项目预计 2025 年中期或三季度投产，目标年产 5 万 吨金属量。 • 江西铜业投资 2.5 亿美元参与第一长岛竞争，获得董事席位，加强资源端 合作。阿富汗项目有望进一步合作，并增持数字化黄金股份，参与厄瓜多 尔矿山开发建设。 • 受当地环境影响，墨西哥选矿项目推迟至 2025 年中期或三季度投产，目标 年产 5 万吨阴极 ...

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company's operating revenue was CNY 520.93 billion, a decrease of 0.18% compared to CNY 521.89 billion in 2023[10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 6.96 billion, representing a 7.03% increase from CNY 6.51 billion in the previous year[10]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 8.29 billion, a significant increase of 54.22% from CNY 5.37 billion in 2023[10]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 77.06% to CNY 2.51 billion, down from CNY 10.93 billion in the previous year[10]. - The total assets at the end of 2024 were CNY 193.13 billion, an increase of 14.85% compared to CNY 168.15 billion at the end of 2023[10]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 15.61% to CNY 77.95 billion from CNY 67.42 billion in 2023[10]. - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were CNY 2.01, up 6.91% from CNY 1.88 in 2023[12]. - The weighted average return on equity increased to 9.58%, up from 9.23% in the previous year[12]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY -6,068,554,414 in Q1 2024, indicating a significant cash outflow[20]. - The company’s consolidated operating revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is RMB 520,928,245,943, a decrease of RMB 964,266,223 or -0.18% compared to the previous year[52]. Production and Sales - Copper production increased by 9.28% to 229.19 thousand tons compared to the previous year (209.73 thousand tons)[26]. - Gold production rose by 4.99% to 118.26 tons year-on-year (previous year: 112.64 tons)[26]. - The revenue from copper cathodes was RMB 268,526,293,106, with a gross margin increase of 1.00 percentage point[61]. - The revenue from gold sales reached RMB 65,896,987,916, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27.84%[61]. - The production volume of copper reached 229.19 million tons, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.28%[65]. - The production of gold was 118.26 tons, with a sales increase of 5.65% compared to the previous year[65]. Investments and Acquisitions - The company acquired a 49% stake in Jiangxi Depu Mining Equipment Co., gaining control over its operational decisions[70]. - Jiangxi Copper Group invested 12,600 million in Jiangxi Copper Group Silver Mountain Mining Co., holding 100% equity[98]. - Jiangxi Jiang Copper Huadong Copper Foil Co., with an investment of 98,965.10 million, holds 49% equity and focuses on the production and sales of electrolytic copper foil products[95]. - The acquisition of Jiangxi DePu Mining Equipment Co., Ltd. resulted in identifiable net assets with a fair value of RMB 76,886 thousand[175]. - The company acquired Jiangxi Chuanhe New Materials Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of RMB 200 million, resulting in a 77.16% ownership stake[178]. Financial Management and Costs - Operating costs decreased by 1.07% to RMB 502,484,215,994, primarily due to changes in raw material prices and sales volume[54][55]. - Research and development expenses increased by 9.63% to RMB 1,118,434,386, indicating a focus on innovation[54][55]. - The company reported a significant increase in financing cash flow by 196.61% to RMB 5,732,637,522, driven by increased borrowing[54][55]. - The company’s financial costs increased to RMB 2,517,793, up from RMB 2,323,801, reflecting a rise of 8.4%[162]. - The company’s interest-bearing bank borrowings rose to RMB 47,776,953 thousand in 2024 from RMB 37,453,136 thousand in 2023, an increase of approximately 27.8%[168]. Risk Management and Compliance - The company emphasizes the importance of risk management and internal controls to mitigate potential risks associated with safety, currency fluctuations, and product price volatility[106]. - The company is exposed to foreign exchange risk due to its reliance on USD for international transactions, which could negatively impact profitability if not effectively managed[108]. - The company has maintained compliance with the corporate governance code and has not arranged insurance for directors facing legal litigation due to perceived low additional risk[116]. - The company received a corrective decision from the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau in April 2024, addressing compliance issues and has submitted a written report on corrective measures[125]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 7 per 10 shares for the fiscal year 2024, totaling approximately RMB 2,416,601,345.90, which accounts for 34.71% of the net profit attributable to shareholders[130]. - The proposed final dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.70 per share, up from RMB 0.60 per share in 2023, reflecting an increase of 16.7%[196]. - The total proposed final dividend amounts to RMB 2,416,601,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 2,077,424,000 in 2023, marking a year-over-year increase of approximately 16.3%[196]. - The company has 3,452,287,637 shares outstanding after excluding treasury shares, compared to 3,462,729,405 shares in 2023[196]. Future Outlook and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and achieve high-quality development through innovation and talent-driven strategies[103]. - The company plans to produce 200,000 tons of copper concentrate, 2.37 million tons of cathode copper, 139 tons of gold, 1,243 tons of silver, 6.53 million tons of sulfuric acid, and 2.01 million tons of copper processing materials in 2025[104]. - The annual investment plan for 2025 is set at RMB 12.814 billion, which includes fixed asset and equity investments[104]. - The company is committed to green development, promoting low-carbon development in the industrial chain, and utilizing financial incentives for equipment upgrades and technology transformation[105].

江西铜业股份有限公司 已审财务报表 2024年度 江西铜业股份有限公司 目 录 | | 页 | | 次 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 审计报告 | 1 | - | 6 | | 合并资产负债表 | 7 | - | 9 | | 合并利润表 | 10 | - | 11 | | 合并股东权益变动表 | 12 | - | 13 | | 合并现金流量表 | 14 | - | 15 | | 公司资产负债表 | 16 | - | 17 | | 公司利润表 | | 18 | | | 公司股东权益变动表 | 19 | - | 20 | | 公司现金流量表 | 21 | - | 22 | | 财务报表附注 | 23 | - | 163 | | 财务报表补充资料 | | | | | 1.非经常性损益明细表 | | 1 | | | 2.净资产收益率和每股收益 | | 1 | | | 3.中国与国际财务报告准则编报差异调节表 | | 2 | | 审计报告 安永华明（2025）审字第70013329_B01号 江西铜业股份有限公司 江西铜业股份有限公司全体股东： 一、审计意见 我们审计了江西铜业股份有限公司的 ...

江西铜业股份有限公司 内部控制审计报告 2024年12月31日 安永华明会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） 中国北京巿东城区东长安街 1 号 东方广场安永大楼 17 层 邮政编码: 100738 Tel 电话· : +86 10 5815 3000 Fax 传真· : +86 10 8518 8298 ey.com 内部控制审计报告 安永华明（2025）专字第70013329_B01号 江西铜业股份有限公司 江西铜业股份有限公司全体股东： 按照《企业内部控制审计指引》及中国注册会计师执业准则的相关要求， 我们审计了江西铜业股份有限公司2024年12月31日的财务报告内部控制的有效 性。 一、企业对内部控制的责任 按照《企业内部控制基本规范》、《企业内部控制应用指引》、《企业内 部控制评价指引》的规定，建立健全和有效实施内部控制，并评价其有效性是 江西铜业股份有限公司董事会的责任。 二、注册会计师的责任 我们的责任是在实施审计工作的基础上，对财务报告内部控制的有效性发 表审计意见，并对注意到的非财务报告内部控制的重大缺陷进行披露。 Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP Level 17, Ernst ...

江西铜业股份有限公司 2024 年度独立董事述职报告 作为江西铜业股份有限公司的独立董事，本人严格按照 《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市 公司独立董事管理办法》等法律法规和《公司章程》《独立 董事工作制度》的规定，谨慎、认真、勤勉地履行独立董事 的职责，积极出席公司股东大会、董事会及专门委员会会议， 认真审议董事会各项议案，发挥独立董事独立性及专业优势， 对公司重大事项发表公正、客观的独立意见，维护公司和全 体股东的合法权益。现就本人 2024 年度履行独立董事职责 情况汇报如下： 一、独立董事的基本情况 本人王丰，男，1977 年出生，企业管理专业博士。2000 年9月至2002年3月任上海市有线网络有限公司项目经理。 现任和君咨询董事长、首席经济学家以及资深合伙人。 2021 年 6 月 8 日起，担任公司独立董事，并兼任公司薪 酬与考核委员会主席、独立审核委员会（审计委员会）委员、 提名委员会委员。 （二）是否存在影响独立性的情况 作为公司的独立董事，本人与公司之间不存在诸如雇佣 关系、交易关系、亲属关系、《上海证券交易所上市公司自 律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》《上市公司独立 ...

江西铜业股份有限公司 2024 年度独立董事述职报告 作为江西铜业股份有限公司的独立董事，本人严格按照 《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上 市公司独立董事管理办法》等法律法规和《公司章程》《独 立董事工作制度》的规定，谨慎、认真、勤勉地履行独立董 事的职责，积极出席公司股东大会、董事会及专门委员会会 议，认真审议董事会各项议案，发挥独立董事独立性及专业 优势，对公司重大事项发表公正、客观的独立意见，维护公 司和全体股东的合法权益。现就本人 2024 年度履行独立董 事职责情况汇报如下： 作为公司的独立董事，本人与公司之间不存在诸如雇佣 关系、交易关系、亲属关系、《上海证券交易所上市公司自 律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》《上市公司独立董事管理 办法》等相关法律法规规定的影响独立性的情况。 二、独立董事年度履职概况 （一）出席会议及表决情况 2024 年本人担任公司独立董事期间，公司共召开了 5 次 董事会、2 次股东大会、2 次独立审核委员会（审计委员会）、 2 次提名委员会、0 次薪酬委员会、0 次 ESG 发展委员会、0 次独立董事专门会议。本人出席会议情况如下： 一、独立董事的基本情 ...