Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is currently facing significant challenges due to irrational competition and a prolonged period of losses, leading to a call for industry self-discipline and a reduction in excessive competition [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry in China has transitioned from a phase of catching up to one of leading the global market, with substantial advancements in scale and technology [2]. - The industry is experiencing a severe supply-demand mismatch, resulting in widespread losses across the sector, including leading companies [3][4]. Company Insights - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is projected to face its first annual loss in over 40 years in 2024, highlighting the severity of the current market conditions [2]. - The company has emphasized the importance of market-driven solutions to address perceived overcapacity, suggesting that the market will eventually find a new balance [4]. - Despite the challenges, Tongwei has been actively seeking to improve its cash flow and operational efficiency through strategic investments and partnerships [9]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a significant increase in the price of polysilicon, with futures prices rising over 60% in the past month, reflecting a potential recovery in the market [7]. - The average transaction prices for various types of polysilicon have also shown substantial week-on-week increases, suggesting a positive trend in pricing [7]. Financial Performance - Tongwei's half-year profit forecast for 2025 indicates a projected net loss of approximately 49 to 52 billion yuan, which is an increase compared to the previous year, primarily due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [8]. - The company has been focusing on vertical integration to enhance its competitive position, but the current market downturn has intensified the financial pressures across its product lines [8].

Summary of Industrial Silicon Price Trends Conference Industry Overview - The industrial silicon demand is primarily driven by polysilicon, with production capacity increasing from 1.08 million tons in 2021 to an expected 3 million tons by the end of 2024, and projected to reach 3.3 million tons by 2025 [1][3] - The recent rebound in industrial silicon prices is attributed to supply reductions (notably from Hoshine Silicon Industry), increased demand (growth in organic silicon and polysilicon), inventory structure changes, and market sentiment [1][4] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply and demand for industrial silicon show a marginal improvement, with supply tightening due to Hoshine's production cuts, despite some increases in Yunnan and Sichuan regions [5][6] - From June to July, significant destocking occurred, reducing total inventory from 350,000 tons to 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory around 800,000 tons [1][6] - The main demand sources for industrial silicon are polysilicon (43%), organic silicon (25.97%), and aluminum alloys (15%), with exports accounting for about 15% [1][8] Market Sentiment and Price Influences - Market sentiment significantly impacts industrial silicon prices, with expectations of anti-competitive policies leading polysilicon companies to agree on selling at no less than cost, driving prices up [1][4] - Coal costs are a critical factor influencing industrial silicon prices, showing a correlation with coking coal price trends [1][7] Industry Changes and Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a capacity consolidation phase, expected to complete by the end of September, which may lead to price increases and production decreases [11][12] - By the end of 2025, China's actual industrial silicon capacity is projected to be around 8 million tons, with nominal capacity at 7 million tons, indicating a potential severe oversupply [13][15] - Historical trends show that industrial silicon prices typically bottom out with capacity reductions, but currently, no such reductions are observed despite low prices [14][15] Policy and Regulatory Impact - There are ongoing discussions about eliminating small furnaces (below 12,500 kVA), which could significantly impact the industry if implemented, potentially reducing total capacity by up to 5% [18][19] - The effectiveness of market-driven measures to eliminate outdated capacity is questioned, particularly in regions where small furnaces produce specialized products [27][31] Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost structure varies significantly across regions, with cash costs in Xinjiang around 6,800 RMB/ton, while costs in Yunnan and Sichuan can reach up to 10,000 RMB/ton [24][25] - The profitability outlook for the third quarter is positive, with expectations of turning losses into profits if prices exceed 10,000 RMB/ton [29] Key Focus Areas - Key areas to monitor in the coming months include Hoshine's production resumption and the potential impact of small furnace elimination policies on supply-demand balance and pricing [20] Additional Insights - The organic silicon market is rapidly developing, with significant applications in photovoltaics and electric vehicles, and is expected to maintain stable growth [10] - The integration of polysilicon production is anticipated to stabilize prices and improve overall market conditions [11][12]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus in the market, with expectations for a three-stage development: policy anticipation, price increases, and demand expansion [2] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point due to capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy being highlighted [3] - High-dividend coal companies and turnaround coking companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are noted for their potential [4] Group 2 - The stabilization and recovery of bulk commodity prices driven by the "anti-involution" trend will benefit the profitability of bulk supply chain companies like Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen International Trade, and Zheshang Zhongtuo [5]

重要内容提示： 股票代码：600438 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2025-067 债券代码：110085 债券简称：通 22 转债 通威股份有限公司 关于控股股东股份质押解除及质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2、本次被质押股份不存在被用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或用于 其他保障用途。 3、股东累计质押股份情况 通威集团有限公司（以下简称"通威集团"）持有通威股份有限公司（以下简称 "本公司"）45.24%的股份，为本公司控股股东。截止本公告披露日，通威集团累 计质押 577,560,000 股，合计占本公司总股本的 12.83%，占其所持本公司股份总 数的 28.36%。 本公司于近日收到通威集团关于部分股份解除质押及再质押的通知，具体事项 如下： 一、上市公司股份解质 通威集团将质押给招商银行股份有限公司成都分行、兴业银行股份有限公司成 都分行的股份解除质押，合计解除质押 14,000,000 股，情况如下： | 股东名称 | 通威集团有限公司 | | --- | --- | | 本 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Power** industry, particularly the solar and wind energy sectors within the Asia Pacific region [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Power Consumption Growth**: In the first half of 2025 (1H25), national power consumption increased by **3.7% year-over-year (yoy)**, a decline from **8.1% in 1H24**. The slowdown is attributed to a significant decrease in the secondary (industrial) sector, which grew by only **2.4% yoy** compared to **6.9% yoy** in the previous year [2][8]. - **Sector Performance**: The primary, tertiary, and residential sectors showed growth rates of **8.7%**, **7.1%**, and **4.9%** respectively in 1H25. Notably, residential demand surged to **10.8%** in June 2025, up from **5%**, **7%**, and **10%** in the preceding months [2]. - **Power Generation Statistics**: Total power generation reached **4,537 billion kWh** in 1H25, marking a **0.8% yoy** increase. Solar and wind power generation saw substantial growth of **20.0%** and **10.6% yoy**, respectively, with these sources accounting for **18%** of total power generation, up from **15%** in 1H24 [3]. - **Capacity Additions**: China added **293 GW** of power capacity in 1H25, a **92.0% yoy** increase, including **212 GW** of solar and **51 GW** of wind capacity, which grew by **107%** and **99% yoy**, respectively. However, newly installed solar and wind capacity in June was **14 GW** and **5 GW**, showing a significant month-over-month decline [4][8]. - **Investment Trends**: Investment in power generation capacity and power grid reached **Rmb 364 billion** and **Rmb 291 billion** in 1H25, reflecting increases of **5.9%** and **14.6%**, respectively [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Forecast Adjustments**: The China Electricity Council (CEC) revised its full-year growth forecast for power consumption down from **6%** to a range of **5-6%** yoy, indicating a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year [8]. - **Future Expectations**: A decline in solar installations is anticipated for the second half of 2025 (2H25), alongside continued weak plant utilization expected in July and August [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and trends in the China Power industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both growth opportunities and potential risks.

Group 1 - The A-share silicon energy sector experienced a short-term rise, with Silicon Treasure Technology increasing by over 6%, and Yijing Optoelectronics and Hesheng Silicon Industry rising by over 5% [1] - The main contract for polysilicon has hit the daily limit for the second consecutive trading day, priced at 53,165 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tongwei Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the latest quarterly report, indicating potential challenges for the company moving forward [1] - As of July 22, 2025, Tongwei's stock price closed at 21.67 yuan, reflecting a 5.55% increase with a trading volume of 1.6391 million hands and a transaction amount of 3.483 billion yuan [1] - The net inflow of main funds today was 325 million yuan, accounting for 9.33% of the transaction amount, with large orders showing a net inflow of 360 million yuan [1] Group 2 - For the first quarter of 2025, Tongwei reported total operating revenue of 15.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59275 billion yuan, down 229.56% year-on-year [1] - The company has a current ratio of 1.321, a quick ratio of 1.069, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.25% [1] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. was established in 1995 and is primarily engaged in the manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment, with a registered capital of 4.501973746 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - Tongwei has made investments in 59 companies and participated in 213 bidding projects, indicating active engagement in business expansion [2] - The company holds 250 trademark registrations and 343 patent applications, showcasing its focus on intellectual property [2] - Additionally, Tongwei possesses 40 administrative licenses, reflecting its compliance and operational capabilities [2]

Group 1 - The carbon neutrality ETF, TaiKang (560560), has shown a strong performance with a recent increase of 1.39%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, and has a trading volume of 3.64 million yuan [1] - The underlying index, the CSI Mainland Low Carbon Economy Theme Index (000977), has also risen by 1.41%, with significant gains from constituent stocks such as Tebian Electric Apparatus (600089) up by 9.98% and Daqo New Energy (688303) up by 6.87% [1] - The total size of the carbon neutrality ETF reached 65.5 million yuan, a new high in the past month [2] Group 2 - The construction of hydropower stations downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River is significant, with a capacity of approximately 60-70 million kilowatts, equivalent to three Three Gorges projects, and a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which is six times that of the Three Gorges project [2] - The project will enhance the investment intensity in related sectors due to the high technical requirements and the long transmission distances, which are expected to drive growth in the power grid investment [2] - The hydropower project commenced on July 19, with a conservative estimate of the total value of related investments in turbine and generator businesses ranging from 53.5 billion to 95.4 billion yuan, potentially becoming a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [2] Group 3 - The CSI Mainland Low Carbon Economy Theme Index consists of 50 core enterprises in the low-carbon economy, covering the entire industrial chain from clean energy generation to waste treatment [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include leading companies such as Yangtze Power and CATL, indicating strong industry representation [3] - The TaiKang carbon neutrality ETF serves as a bridge for ordinary investors to participate in the global climate change response, aiming to provide substantial investment returns amid the growing green economy [3] Group 4 - The carbon neutrality ETF (560560) acts as an efficient allocation tool, mitigating individual stock risks through its diversified holdings and capturing leading companies' dividends [4]

Group 1 - As of July 21, 2023, 55 Sichuan-listed companies have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 33 companies expecting profits and 22 facing potential losses [1] - The performance disparity among industries is increasing, with emerging sectors benefiting from policy support and market demand, while traditional industries are pressured by supply-demand imbalances and price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - New Yi Sheng is projected to have a net profit of 37 to 42 billion yuan, benefiting from the growth in AI-related computing power investments, marking a record high for the period [2] - Guo Cheng Mining and Huaxi Securities are notable performers, with both companies expecting net profit increases exceeding 10 times year-on-year, driven by non-recurring gains and improved asset quality, respectively [2] - Saint Noble Bio's net profit is expected to grow by 254% to 332% year-on-year, driven by increased exports of peptide raw materials in diabetes and anti-tumor fields [2] Group 3 - Traditional industries such as basic chemicals, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals are facing significant performance pressures, with Tongwei Co. expected to report a loss of 4.9 to 5.2 billion yuan, the largest loss among Sichuan-listed companies [3] - The losses for Tongwei Co. are attributed to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and persistently low product prices despite growth in new photovoltaic installations [3] - Other companies like Hongda Co. and Huati Technology are also forecasting losses due to falling zinc prices and increased competition, respectively [3] - The performance forecasts reflect a clear economic structural transformation, with emerging industries gaining an edge through policy support and technological advancements, while traditional sectors must adapt through capacity optimization and technological upgrades [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report Industry Overview - The report discusses the potential for a new round of supply-side structural reforms in China, referred to as Supply-Side Structural Reform 2.0 (SSSR2.0), following a call from the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs (CCFEA) to address price competition and eliminate obsolete capacity [2][11]. Core Insights 1. **Differences from Previous Reforms**: - SSSR1.0 focused on upstream industries like coal, steel, cement, and glass, while SSSR2.0 is expected to encompass both traditional industries (e.g., steel) and new industries (e.g., solar, auto, lithium batteries) [3][13]. - The current reforms may be driven by self-regulating industry associations and market players rather than solely by government mandates, which characterized SSSR1.0 [3][13]. - Economic conditions differ significantly; SSSR1.0 coincided with a boost from infrastructure projects, whereas the current economy faces challenges in property and consumption sectors [3][13]. 2. **Urgency of Reform**: - The solar industry is identified as having the highest urgency for reform due to low capacity utilization rates (73.5%) and negative return on equity (ROE) among top players [5][24]. - Other industries in need of reform include steel, lithium batteries, and auto [5][24]. 3. **Potential Outcomes**: - The pace of capacity elimination may be slower in SSSR2.0 compared to SSSR1.0 due to the different measures and types of enterprises involved (state-owned vs. private) [4][26]. - It may take longer for Producer Price Index (PPI) growth to return to positive territory due to weaker demand and less stringent supply-side controls [4][26]. Key Beneficiaries - The report highlights five stocks that could benefit from the anticipated supply-side measures: - **Tongwei** (Hold) - **Longi Green** (Hold) - **First Applied Material** (Buy) - **Lead Intelligent** (Buy) - **Bank of Jiangsu** (Buy) [7][35]. Additional Insights 1. **Historical Context**: - SSSR1.0 led to significant improvements in capacity utilization and ROE for industry leaders, suggesting that similar outcomes could be expected for leading firms in SSSR2.0 [30][31]. - During SSSR1.0, industries involved in reforms outperformed the CSI300 benchmark, with large caps generally outperforming small caps [31][33]. 2. **Current Economic Indicators**: - The report notes that PPI has been in contraction for 33 months since October 2022, indicating ongoing economic challenges [14][26]. - Capacity utilization rates have declined across various sectors, with electrical equipment and auto industries experiencing significant drops [16][29]. 3. **Regulatory Measures**: - Recent measures include standardized conditions for solar manufacturing and initiatives to curb price wars in the auto industry, indicating a proactive approach by regulatory bodies [21][22]. 4. **Market Sentiment**: - Investor expectations for SSSR2.0 are fueled by recent government discussions and publications highlighting the need for structural reforms to address overcapacity and competition issues [2][12]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the potential impacts of SSSR2.0 on various industries and highlights key stocks that may benefit from these reforms.