Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain, with significant price adjustments for silicon wafers and battery cells, indicating a recovery in market sentiment for solid-state batteries [9][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes in the industry chain, as well as the progress of mergers and acquisitions in the silicon material sector [15][36] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic - The prices of silicon materials have risen to approximately 47-49 CNY/kg, with silicon wafer prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N reaching 1.45, 1.65, and 1.93 CNY per piece respectively [21][24] - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing a reduction in low-price competition, with a focus on orderly exit of backward production capacity [16][36] - Key recommendations include investing in companies benefiting from this trend, such as Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, LONGi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar [36] Energy Storage - The introduction of capacity pricing for energy storage in Gansu province strengthens the logic for independent energy storage in China, with a capacity price set at 330 CNY/KW per year for the first two years [41][42] - The report indicates that the domestic energy storage market is expected to see continued growth, driven by favorable policies and increasing demand [39][50] - Recommended companies in this sector include Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology, with a focus on large-scale energy storage projects [36] Lithium Battery - The report notes a stable upward trend in the lithium battery sector, with a focus on companies with strong profitability and stable market positions, such as CATL and other quality second-tier companies [16][36] - The sentiment around solid-state batteries is improving, with significant advancements expected in materials and technology [16][39] Wind Power - The report highlights the acceleration of offshore wind projects in China, with expectations for increased profitability in the second half of the year as project deliveries ramp up [16][36] - Recommended companies include Mingyang Smart Energy and Zhongji Innolight, which are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [36] Power Equipment - The report emphasizes the importance of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) projects and the expected approval of new projects in the second half of the year [16][36] - Recommended companies in this sector include Sifang Co. and State Grid Information & Communication, which are expected to benefit from these developments [36] New Directions - The report discusses the potential of humanoid robots and advancements in solid-state battery technology, indicating a positive outlook for companies involved in these areas [16][36]

Core Viewpoint - Fund manager Wu Hao oversees two funds, with the best-performing fund being Huaxia High-end Manufacturing Mixed A (002345), which achieved a quarterly net value increase of 1.01% by the end of Q2 2025 [1]. Fund Performance Summary - Huaxia High-end Manufacturing Mixed A has a total scale of 9.11 billion, with an annualized return of 2.04% and a quarterly increase of 1.01%. The top holding is Guoguang Electric, accounting for 8.47% of the net value [2]. - Huaxia High-end Manufacturing Mixed C has a scale of 0.21 billion, with a negative annualized return of -9.01% and a quarterly increase of 0.86%, also holding Guoguang Electric at 8.47% [2]. - Wu Hao's management of Huaxia High-end Manufacturing Mixed A has yielded a cumulative return of 35.89% and an average annualized return of 6.19%. The fund has made 89 adjustments to its heavy holdings, with a success rate of 66.29% [2]. Stock Adjustment Cases - Notable stock adjustments include: - Trina Solar (天合光能) was bought in Q2 2021 and sold in Q3 2021, yielding an estimated return of 141.89% with a company revenue growth of 51.20% during the holding period [3][5]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) was held from Q2 2020 to Q4 2020, achieving a return of 120.32% with a company performance increase of 36.95% [3]. - Tanfeng Communication (天孚通信) was held from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, resulting in a return of 96.16% with a net profit growth of 84.07% [6]. Underperforming Stock Cases - Underperforming stocks include: - Green Harmony (绿的谐波) was held from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, resulting in a return of -48.55% despite a revenue growth of 8.77% [4][6]. - Huayi Technology (华依科技) was held from Q4 2023 to Q2 2024, with a return of -44.46% and a performance increase of 20.36% [4].

Group 1: Liquidity and Scale of New Energy ETF - The New Energy ETF had an intraday turnover of 2.47%, with a transaction volume of 22.29 million yuan [3] - As of July 18, the New Energy ETF's latest scale reached 896 million yuan, marking a one-month high [3] - The latest margin buying amount for the New Energy ETF was 1.24 million yuan, with a margin balance of 21.68 million yuan [3] Group 2: Performance Metrics of New Energy ETF - Since its inception, the New Energy ETF recorded a highest monthly return of 25.07%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 2 months and a maximum increase of 38.44% [3] - The average return during the rising months was 7.76%, and the annualized return over the past three months exceeded the benchmark by 6.57% [3] Group 3: Key Stocks in New Energy Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Index include CATL, Sungrow Power, Longi Green Energy, China Nuclear Power, Three Gorges Energy, TBEA, EVE Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Tongwei Co., and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively accounting for 42.81% of the index [6] Group 4: New Hydropower Project Announcement - The groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five cascade power stations [5] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission outside the region while also addressing local consumption needs in Tibet [5] Group 5: Long-term Benefits for Suppliers - CITIC Securities believes that the ongoing construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project will provide long-term benefits to leading suppliers of hydropower equipment and core equipment for power grid transmission [6]

Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need to address "involution" competition and to regulate low-price disorderly competition in enterprises, aiming to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The photovoltaic and lithium battery industries are currently at a profit bottom, with photovoltaic losses being particularly significant, and the "anti-involution" approach is expected to be a key driver for the medium to long-term profit recovery in the new energy sector [1] - As of July 21, 2025, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) has risen by 0.91%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Tebian Electric (600089) up 4.72% and Shuangliang Energy (600481) up 2.30% [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151) include Yangguang Electric (300274), Longi Green Energy (601012), and TCL Technology (000100), with these stocks collectively accounting for 55.39% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo concluded in Beijing, featuring the "Invest in Sichuan" International Supply Chain Cooperation Conference, which signed multiple projects exceeding 2.5 billion yuan [1] - The conference gathered over 200 domestic and foreign guests, focusing on finding partners and solutions for industrial development in Sichuan [1] Group 2 - Zhang Yansheng, a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, emphasized the importance of domestic demand and internal circulation as a strategic shift for China, suggesting Sichuan leverage its geographical advantages to connect international and domestic supply chains [2] - Zhang proposed that Sichuan should target traditional industries for export, explore multi-modal transportation methods, strengthen consumer goods trade, and harness advancements in artificial intelligence to innovate supply chain methods [2] Group 3 - Tu Yonghong, director of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Research Institute at Renmin University, highlighted the significant role of finance in building Sichuan's industrial chain, advocating for better utilization of capital markets to enhance industry consolidation [3][4] - The Tianfu Financial Index, compiled by Renmin University, ranked Chengdu fourth among national central cities in 2024, indicating a need for improved capital market strategies to support industrial growth [4] Group 4 - Tongwei Co., Ltd. shared its success story at the conference, achieving over 70% local supply for battery procurement and over 80% for polysilicon, which has enhanced supply stability and reduced logistics costs [5][6] - The company aims to have over 500 core raw material suppliers in its photovoltaic supply chain by 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of localized supply chains [5] Group 5 - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade released the 2025 Global Supply Chain Promotion Report, indicating a positive trend in global supply chains, though underlying vulnerabilities remain [5] - The report emphasizes the need for collective efforts to enhance the resilience of global supply chains [5] Group 6 - The South Korean economic counselor expressed ongoing interest in investment and cooperation with Sichuan, projecting a trade investment of approximately 8.5 billion USD in 2024, with 634 South Korean enterprises currently operating in the region [6] - The American Chamber of Commerce in China highlighted the potential for collaboration in biotechnology, healthcare, and clean energy sectors, aiming to strengthen supply chain connections in Sichuan [7] Group 7 - During the expo, Sichuan presented 158 cooperation projects with a total investment amounting to 379.12 billion yuan, aiming to attract more partners for industrial development and supply chain strengthening [7]

Policy Overview - The current "anti-involution" policy differs from the 2015 supply-side reform, focusing on effective demand shortages and low-end oversupply rather than structural mismatches in supply and demand[1] - The current policy extends to emerging manufacturing sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, which are predominantly private enterprises[1] Industry Capacity and Profitability - Overall industrial capacity utilization and profit margins are low, with further downward pressure expected; policy intervention is needed for market supply-demand rebalancing[2] - Key sectors like automotive manufacturing, electrical machinery (including photovoltaics), and non-metal mineral manufacturing (glass, cement) are in a "double low" state of low profit margins and capacity utilization, necessitating capacity clearance[2] Key Areas of Focus - Photovoltaics: Trade barriers and subsidy reductions have led to overcapacity and price declines; restructuring and demand-side policies are crucial for stabilizing prices[3] - Automotive Lithium: Structural contradictions between fuel and new energy vehicles have intensified, requiring capacity reduction for fuel vehicles and market expansion for new energy vehicles[3] - Coal: High coal inventories suppress prices, but long-term contracts stabilize profits for major coal companies; structural optimization may benefit coking coal enterprises[3] - Steel: Equipment upgrades are driving demand, but the real estate market remains weak, keeping profit margins low; effective capacity reduction and demand-side policies are key for improvement[3] Asset Impact - Equity markets may see index recovery due to "anti-involution" policies, but sustainability depends on the effectiveness of demand-side policies[4] - Bond markets face short-term pressure from equity market rebounds, with medium-term risks from rising interest rates due to inflation[4] - Commodity markets show strong short-term sentiment; caution is advised for shorts, while longs should monitor long-term supply-demand improvements[4] Risk Factors - Unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions or industrial policies pose risks to the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures[5]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of humanoid robot production due to advancements in AI technology and domestic companies' efforts to replace core components, indicating a broad market opportunity [1][15] - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is entering a deep penetration phase, with new high-cost performance models expected to drive sales growth and stabilize the industry in the medium to long term [2][18] - The renewable energy sector is facing rising upstream raw material prices, which are expected to be passed down the supply chain, potentially leading to price rebounds for solar components [3][24] - The UK government's decision to relax AR7 offshore wind auction entry requirements is anticipated to boost investment enthusiasm and accelerate project implementation in the offshore wind sector [4][27] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The launch of the new industrial humanoid robot Walker S2 by UBTECH enables 24/7 operation with a rapid battery swap system, indicating a significant technological breakthrough [1][15] - The report emphasizes the strong domestic demand for core components and the potential for domestic companies to benefit from this trend [1][15] - Key players in the humanoid robot supply chain are expected to see substantial opportunities as the industry matures [1][17] New Energy Vehicles - The report notes that the introduction of multiple new EV models is likely to enhance user experience and drive sales growth [2][18] - The EV industry is characterized by rapid growth, with new technologies and materials expected to improve performance and reduce costs [2][19] - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the EV supply chain, particularly in battery technology and related components [2][23] Renewable Energy - The report discusses the impact of rising prices for upstream materials like silicon, which are expected to lead to price increases for solar components [3][24] - It highlights the ongoing optimization of battery efficiency and the potential for companies with differentiated high-efficiency products to enhance profitability [3][26] - The report also notes the expected reduction in production from glass manufacturers, which could alleviate inventory and pricing pressures in the solar market [3][26] Offshore Wind Energy - The UK government's relaxation of AR7 offshore wind auction rules is seen as a positive signal for the global offshore wind industry, potentially increasing project participation [4][27] - The report anticipates that the extension of contract terms for difference agreements will further stimulate investment in offshore wind projects [4][28] - Key beneficiaries of this trend are expected to include leading domestic companies involved in offshore wind energy [4][28] Energy Storage - The introduction of capacity pricing policies for energy storage in Gansu province is expected to enhance the profitability of long-duration storage projects [8][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage in balancing renewable energy output and improving utilization rates [8][31] - Companies with technological advantages in energy storage are likely to be the first to benefit from these new policies [8][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the abnormal price surge in the polysilicon market, driven by oligopolistic market structures and policy signals, raising concerns about systemic risks in the industry [3][33]. Group 1: Market Structure and Pricing Dynamics - The polysilicon market is characterized by a significant oligopoly, with the top five companies in China accounting for 70.3% of global production in 2024 [4][5]. - Tongwei Co., as the industry leader, holds a 25% market share, followed by GCL-Poly (15%), Daqo New Energy (11%), Xinte Energy (10%), and Hoshine Silicon Industry (6%) [4][5]. - Despite a severe oversupply, polysilicon prices surged by 30% in July 2025, reflecting a collective response from leading firms to policy signals rather than genuine supply-demand improvements [6][13]. Group 2: Policy Evolution and Challenges - The "anti-involution" policy aimed to curb low-price competition and promote high-quality development but has evolved into a mechanism for price collusion among leading firms [8][20]. - Initial discussions in 2024 about self-regulation and production cuts yielded limited results, leading to increased administrative involvement in 2025 [11][12]. - The policy's execution faced challenges, including disagreements on capacity storage and limited room for further production cuts due to already low operating rates [16][17]. Group 3: Industry Chain Imbalances - The price surge has disrupted the price transmission mechanism within the industry, with polysilicon prices rising by 30% while downstream products like silicon wafers only increased by 14% [22][23]. - Inventory disparities exist, with polysilicon stocks at three months' usage while silicon wafer inventories are critically low [25][26]. - The high polysilicon prices have begun to suppress end-user demand, particularly in distributed solar markets, leading to pessimistic installation forecasts for the second half of 2025 [28]. Group 4: Systemic Risks and Recommendations - The abnormal price increases pose risks of a supply chain breakdown, with potential production cuts across the industry as downstream firms resist high polysilicon prices [29][30]. - The financial derivatives market for polysilicon is also at risk, with structural issues potentially leading to liquidity crises [30][31]. - Recommendations include refining the "anti-involution" policy to ensure it promotes genuine market stability rather than price manipulation, and encouraging technological advancements to lower costs [35][36].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Equal Weight Index opened low and rose, increasing by 0.47% to 8334.39 points, with a trading volume of 165.144 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai 180 Equal Weight Index has risen by 2.50% in the past month, 4.91% in the past three months, and 1.28% year-to-date [1] - The index uses an equal-weighting method, providing a more uniform distribution of individual stocks and industry weights compared to the Shanghai 180 Index [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the Shanghai 180 Equal Weight Index include major companies such as China Construction Bank (0.74%), Industrial Fulian (0.71%), and others [1] - The index's holdings are entirely from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with the industrial sector accounting for 25.53%, financial sector 23.65%, and information technology 11.86% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with a sample adjustment limit of 10% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to see steady growth driven by the increasing demand for new energy vehicles, with solid-state batteries emerging as a key focus due to their advantages in energy density and safety [1][4] - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing an oversupply situation, with prices expected to decline further in the short term, despite some stabilization trends [2][9] - The wind power sector is experiencing a rise in project initiation, particularly in offshore wind, with strong growth potential anticipated in both domestic and international markets [3][10] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Industry - The demand for new energy vehicles is projected to grow significantly, with domestic sales of passenger vehicles expected to reach 11.05 million units in 2024, a 40.2% increase year-on-year [14] - The global usage of lithium batteries for new energy vehicles is forecasted to reach 894.4 GWh in 2024, marking a 27.2% increase [14] - Solid-state batteries are highlighted as a revolutionary technology, offering higher energy density (400-500 Wh/kg) and enhanced safety compared to traditional liquid batteries [39][40] Photovoltaic Industry - The supply chain remains oversupplied, with silicon material prices nearing the cash cost line of leading companies, leading to significant cash flow pressure [2][9] - The average transaction price for silicon materials has dropped to 32,000-35,000 yuan/ton, with further declines possible [2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the silicon material sector and major players in the photovoltaic chain, such as Tongwei Co. and LONGi Green Energy [9] Wind Power Industry - Offshore wind projects are gradually ramping up, with significant growth expected due to a low base and ongoing project advancements [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring bidding volumes and prices in the second half of the year to gauge future profitability in the onshore wind sector [3][10] - Key companies to watch include Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the high demand in both domestic and international markets [10]