Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth with continuous profit release, as evidenced by its Q1-Q3 2024 performance, which includes total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan (up 6.29% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 555.6 million yuan (up 33.00% year-on-year) [1] - The report highlights the company's focus on product structure upgrades and the successful performance of its Wuling liquor brand, with revenue from products priced above 100 yuan increasing by 15.71% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from internal reform dividends, with slight adjustments made to its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue reached 4.088 billion yuan, with a net profit of 555.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.00% [1] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 66.21% and 13.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements compared to the previous year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 was 642 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.54% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan was 2.044 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, up 15.71% year-on-year, while revenue from products priced below 100 yuan was 2.020 billion yuan, up 8.35% year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue from different channels showed stability, with dealer sales increasing by 12.83% year-on-year [1] Profit Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.89, 1.06, and 1.25 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 815 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 22.3% compared to the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.618 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million yuan, up 25.17%, which meets expectations. The growth in products priced above 100 yuan remains resilient, primarily benefiting from Wuling liquor and A-level products [2][6]. - The report anticipates significant improvement in performance due to the effects of state-owned enterprise reform, indicating substantial future profit growth potential [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.29%, and a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 33.00% [6]. - In Q3 2024, the company’s revenue was 1.618 billion yuan, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.77%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of product structure [6]. Market Performance - The company’s products priced above 100 yuan saw revenue of 791 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, while products priced below 100 yuan generated 821 million yuan, up 2.29% [6]. - Regional performance showed that the Hunan market accelerated, while the Hebei market underperformed due to restaurant regulations affecting liquor consumption [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.565 billion yuan, 5.942 billion yuan, and 6.241 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.85%, 6.78%, and 5.03% [7]. - Net profits are expected to reach 873 million yuan, 1.092 billion yuan, and 1.240 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.16%, 25.04%, and 13.57% respectively [7].

老白千酒(600559) 盈利能力显著提升,提质增效成果显现 老白干酒 2024年三季报点评 投资要点 □24 前三季度 营收 40.88 亿元(同比+6%);归母净利润 5.56 亿元(+33%)。 24Q3 营收 16.18 亿元（+0.26%）; 归母净利润 2.52 亿元（+25%）, 收入略低于 预期、利润符合预期。 □我们认为,公司管理不断提升,五个品牌分区域运作,内部实行赛马机制, 利于激发组织活力。从报表上看，费用改革成果不断兑现,盈利能力显著提 升。此外,公司加大对渠道经销商的扶持力度,降低渠道库存,重视长期发 展。我们看好结构升级+费用管控下的利润弹性释放。 □百元以上价位带增长较快,山东/湖南增速亮眼 1) 分产品，百元以上价位带增长较快。24 前三季度百元以上/以下白酒（按照 出厂价）分别实现收入 20.44 亿元（+16%）/20.20 亿 元（+8%）。 24Q3 百 元以上/以下白酒分别实现收入 7.91 亿元 (+10%) /8.21 亿 元 (+2% ) 2) 分区域,Q3 山东/湖南收入增长较高。 24 前三季度 河北/山东/安徽/湖南省 份收入占比 58%/3%/11%/ ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 10 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：20.39 元 老白干酒（600559）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 降本增效成效显著，聚焦资源势能向上 [Table_Summary 事件：公司公布] 2024年三季报，前三季度公司实现营收 40.9亿元，同比+6.3%； 实现归母净利润 5.6亿元，同比+33.0%。单季度来看，24Q3公司实现营收 16.2 亿元，同比+0.3%；实现归母净利润 2.5 亿元，同比+25.2%。收入边际放缓， 利润维持高增，业绩符合市场预期。 产品结构持续优化，省外高增势能延续。1、分产品看，24Q3 百元以上、百元 以下产品分别实现营收 7.9 亿元(+10.0%)、8.2 亿元(+2.3%)。百元以上产品保 持高速增长，十八酒坊表现亮眼，发力宴席场景成效逐步显现。由于公司聚焦 100-300 元大众消费及次高端消费核心大单品培育，叠加行业竞争加剧，百元以 下产品增速放缓。2、分区域看，前三季度河北、山东、安徽、湖南、其他省份 分别实现营收 23.4亿元(+9.1%)、1.4亿 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.09 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 1.62 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [2] - The revenue growth in Q3 was primarily impacted by a slowdown in the Hebei region and intensified competition in Anhui, while the Wuling brand showed a recovery in growth [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's liquor revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth was 11.9%. The slowdown in Q3 was mainly due to the impact from Hebei and increased competition in Anhui [3] - The revenue from high-end liquor and mid-to-low-end liquor in Q3 increased by 9.9% and 2.3% respectively, with the growth in products priced above 100 yuan mainly driven by Wuling [3] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin improved, with Q3 gross margin increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 66.8%. The company has been effectively managing costs, leading to better-than-expected margin performance [4] - The net profit margin in Q3 increased by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a high base last year and a reduction in tax rates [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 790 million, 950 million, and 1.14 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 20%, and 20% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24, 20, and 16 for 2024-2026 [4]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——老白干 2024 年三季报点评 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | 李耀 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | 021-38675854 | | | | | | | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | | | | | | S0880520090001 | | | | | | 本报告导读： 公司 2024Q3 收入表现低于预期，但利润表现符合预期，盈利能力仍有改善；得益 于局部市场高占有及组织效率优化，公司后续盈利能力仍有提振空间。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.86 CNY per share [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.09 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million CNY, up 33.0% year-over-year [2]. - The company achieved a stable profit level in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 66.8%, a decrease in sales expense ratio to 25.5%, and a management expense ratio of 5.9% [2]. - The company’s revenue from products priced above 100 CNY grew by 15.7% year-over-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with notable performance in Shandong and Hunan provinces [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.09 billion CNY and a net profit of 560 million CNY, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 6.3% and 33.0% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 66.2%, with a net profit margin of 13.6% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.62 billion CNY, with a net profit of 250 million CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25.2% [2]. - Revenue from products priced above 100 CNY reached 2.04 billion CNY in the first three quarters, with a growth rate of 15.7% [2]. Profit Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 0.95 CNY, 1.24 CNY, and 1.53 CNY respectively [3][6]. - The company’s equity value is estimated at 22.74 billion CNY based on the FCFF valuation method [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown steady operational rhythm and continuous profit release, with a focus on channel reform and inventory reduction [5] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth due to solid base markets and improved direct sales efficiency of Wuling liquor, alongside optimized expense ratios leading to sustained profit growth [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 15.6%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from white liquor and other businesses was 161 million yuan and 0.06 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +5.9% and -93.5% [4] - Revenue from products priced above and below 100 yuan was 790 million yuan and 820 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 10% and 2% respectively [4] Future Projections - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 870 million yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 1.24 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, supported by its market position and operational efficiency improvements [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.088 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.29%, with a net profit of 556 million, up 33% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.618 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, while net profit for Q3 reached 252 million, a growth of 25.17% [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with projected net profits of 846 million, 1.001 billion, and 1.161 billion respectively, representing growth rates of 27%, 18%, and 16% [5][8]. - The company benefits from product differentiation, competitive pricing, and strong channel relationships, particularly in the Hebei province, which has room for upgrades. The Wuling liquor market in Hunan is also showing steady growth potential [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 20.39 yuan - Market capitalization: 18,438 million yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2024-2026 is projected at 22x, 19x, and 16x respectively [2][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 operating revenue was 1.618 billion, with a net profit of 252 million. The overall revenue for the first three quarters was 4.088 billion, with a net profit of 556 million [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 66.77%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2024 revenue from white liquor was 1.61 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan was 790 million, up 9.9%, while those priced at or below 100 yuan generated 820 million, a growth of 2.3% [6][7]. - Regional performance showed that Hebei revenue was 910 million, growing 1.6%, while Hunan revenue reached 340 million, up 18.2% [6][7]. Future Projections - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 5.807 billion in 2024, 6.372 billion in 2025, and 6.937 billion in 2026 [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 4.09 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with products priced above 100 yuan generating 2.04 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [1]. - The company is focused on its dual-brand strategy of "Hengshui Laobai Gan" and "Shibajiu Fang," aiming to enhance market penetration in high-end products [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 66.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 13.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company expects revenues of 5.6 billion, 6.17 billion, and 6.91 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 868 million, 1.09 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan [2][4]. Market and Competitive Position - The company has seen strong growth in various regions, with Hebei achieving 2.34 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and Shandong showing a significant increase of 33.6% [1]. - The company has increased its number of distributors in Hebei to 1,901, while reducing the number in Hunan to 8,485, indicating a strategic focus on regional strengths [1]. - The company is actively pursuing cost control and efficiency improvements, which are expected to enhance its earnings elasticity [1].