有9家酒企归母净利润低于10亿元，4家净利润低于1亿元。去年只有金种子酒一家酒企亏损，亏损金额 从上年的0.22亿元扩大到2.58亿元。 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 19家上市白酒公司归母净利润增长7.6% 贵州茅台一家占比达到52% 2024年19家上市白酒公司（剔除*ST岩石（维权）），总共实现归母净利润1668.48亿元，同比增长 7.6%。 贵州茅台去年净利润达到862.28亿元，占上市白酒净利润的近52%，提升了3.48个百分点。其次是五粮 液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，归母净利润分别为318.5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.358 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.91%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 787 million yuan, up 18.19% year-on-year [2][4][9]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 1.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 231 million yuan, down 6.79% year-on-year [2][4][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a total revenue of 1.168 billion yuan, an increase of 3.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 152 million yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year [2][4][9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from the Laobai Gan series in 2024 was 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while the Ban Cheng series revenue was 858 million yuan, down 10.3% [9]. - The Wuling wine generated revenue of 1.099 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in average price [9]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 54,141 thousand liters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with an average price of 98,400 yuan per thousand liters, up 5.0% year-on-year [9]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's net profit margin improved by 2.02 percentage points to 14.69%, while the gross profit margin decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 65.95% [9]. - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, with operating costs controlled within 1.826 billion yuan [9]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 0.96 yuan and 1.09 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18 and 16 times [9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 CNY, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion CNY [3][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures yielding results in 2024. The operating profit growth target for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 790 million CNY, up 18.2% year-on-year [10][4]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.47 billion CNY in 2025, with a corresponding year-on-year growth target of 2.1% [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5.26 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 5.36 billion CNY in 2024 and further to 5.61 billion CNY in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was 666 million CNY, expected to rise to 787 million CNY in 2024 and 890 million CNY in 2025, showcasing a consistent growth pattern [4][14]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 65.9% in 2024, with a slight increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][14]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 31.2 million CNY in Hebei, 2.1 million CNY in Shandong, 5.5 million CNY in Anhui, and 11.0 million CNY in Hunan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 31.4%, 0.5%, and 12.3% [2][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces were 7.2 million CNY, 0.4 million CNY, 1.3 million CNY, 2.1 million CNY, and 0.6 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 7.9%, 2.5%, 9.7%, and -36.6% respectively [2][10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 14.7%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous year [2][4]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.06 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 yuan, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion yuan [3][11][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures showing results in 2024. The operating profit target growth for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts due to the ongoing adjustment phase in the liquor industry, predicting earnings per share of 0.97, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan for 2025-2027 [3][11]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 14.69% in 2024, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, with total expense ratio decreasing by 4.12 percentage points [2][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 53.6 billion yuan (up 1.9% year-on-year) and a net profit of 7.9 billion yuan (up 18.2% year-on-year) [10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 56.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth target of 2.1% and total operating costs controlled under 43.59 billion yuan [2][10]. - The company’s financial metrics show a gross margin of 65.9% for 2024, with a forecasted increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][10]. Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue by region was as follows: Hebei 31.2 billion yuan (+2.6%), Shandong 2.1 billion yuan (+31.4%), Anhui 5.5 billion yuan (+0.5%), Hunan 11.0 billion yuan (+12.3%), and other provinces 3.3 billion yuan (+20.7%) [2][10]. - In Q1 2025, revenue from Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces was 7.2 billion yuan (+8.0%), 0.4 billion yuan (+7.9%), 1.3 billion yuan (+2.5%), 2.1 billion yuan (+9.7%), and 0.6 billion yuan (-36.6%) respectively [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.97, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [3][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 15.9% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 17.3% by 2027 [4][10]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 17.36 yuan, with a 52-week high of 25.54 yuan and a low of 15.81 yuan [5]. - The absolute performance over the past week, month, and three months showed declines of -1.92%, -6.42%, and -7.56% respectively [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Laobai Ganjiu reported a mixed performance in its 2024 financial results, achieving revenue growth but facing challenges in market expansion and high-end product transformation [2][3] Group 2 - Laobai Ganjiu's total revenue for 2024 was 5.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%, significantly lower than the growth rates of 12.98% in 2023 and 15.54% in 2022, and did not meet the initial target of 5.78 billion yuan for 2024 [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 787 million yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 18.19%, primarily driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] - The main revenue contributor was the Hengshui Laobai Gan series, generating 2.59 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of total revenue, while the high-end 1915 series struggled with poor e-commerce sales and limited market acceptance [2] - The Wulingjiu series performed well, with revenue increasing by 13.3% to 1.098 billion yuan and a high gross margin of 81.06%, becoming a key driver of profit growth [2] - Overall gross margin for Laobai Ganjiu declined by 1.21 percentage points to 65.95%, indicating a need for improved cost control and product pricing power [2] Group 3 - In terms of regional markets, Hebei remained the primary market for Laobai Ganjiu, contributing 3.118 billion yuan in revenue, which accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue, but with a modest growth rate of 2.61% [3] - The Hunan market showed strong performance due to Wulingjiu, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.3%, although the number of distributors decreased by 230, indicating ongoing channel adjustments [3] - The Shandong market had the highest growth rate at 31.39%, but its small base indicates that national expansion remains a significant challenge [3] - Operating cash flow for Laobai Ganjiu decreased by 32.63% year-on-year, raising concerns about the quality of earnings despite revenue growth [3] - For 2025, Laobai Ganjiu set a cautious revenue target of 5.47 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.1%, highlighting the challenges in achieving sustainable growth amid sluggish high-end product sales and regional market slowdowns [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - **Beer and Beverage Sector**: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - **Consumer Goods Sector**: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - **Consumer Goods**: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth and continuous improvement in net profit margins. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 53.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, while the net profit is expected to reach 7.87 billion, reflecting an 18.2% increase [5][6] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 54.7 billion in 2025, with total costs controlled under 43.6 billion, indicating a revenue growth of 2.1% and operating profit growth of 12.1% [6] - The company has a strong competitive advantage in its product differentiation, pricing strategy, and channel relationships, particularly in Hebei province and Hunan province [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 53.58 billion, with a projected growth rate of 1.9% [5] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 7.87 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2% [5] - The company expects to achieve a gross profit margin of 66.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4% [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 [5][6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 5.35 billion, although it shows a decline of 32.6% year-on-year [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from the main product series, "Hengshui Laobai Gan," is expected to be 25.9 billion, with a growth of 9.96% [6] - The revenue from "Wuling" series is projected to be 11.0 billion, reflecting a 12.3% increase [6] - The company’s revenue from different regions shows growth in Hebei (2.61%), Hunan (12.3%), and Shandong (31.4%) [6] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 14.7%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in expense ratios [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 66.6%, a slight decrease of 1.21 percentage points [7] - The company’s sales expense ratio is projected to decrease to 23.7% in 2024, while the management expense ratio is expected to be 7.57% [7] Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 is expected to be 1.78 billion, a decline of 56.6% year-on-year [7] - The cash received from sales in Q1 2025 is projected to be 16.8 billion, down 15.3% compared to the previous year [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 787 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure, particularly in the high-end segment, which has shown significant growth [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.270 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 231 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.168 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 65.95%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 68.58%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product and Brand Performance - The company’s products priced above 100 yuan showed strong growth, with revenues of 2.704 billion yuan for 2024, up 5.3% year-on-year, and 661 million yuan for Q1 2025, up 25.5% year-on-year [1] - The company’s brands, including Wuling and Kongfu Family, showed varied performance, with Kongfu Family achieving a revenue increase of 28.1% year-on-year [2] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales and management expense ratios for 2024 [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 14.69%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a net profit margin of 13.05%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 5.664 billion yuan and 6.188 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.7% and 9.3% [4] - The company is focusing on long-term development and product structure enhancement, particularly in the high-end market segment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in 2024 with a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit of 790 million yuan, up 18.2%, indicating sustained high growth despite a slight dip in Q4 performance [1][2][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, with the liquor segment contributing 5.33 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year growth [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 790 million yuan, marking an 18.2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 740 million yuan, up 20.1% [2][3] - Q4 2024 revenue was 1.27 billion yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, a decrease of 6.8% [2][3] Cost Management and Profitability - The company effectively reduced promotional expenses, leading to a 3.5 percentage point decrease in the sales expense ratio [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 66.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the liquor segment's gross margin was 66.2%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders improved to 13.8% for the year, up 2.1 percentage points [3] Product Performance - The company saw double-digit growth in its Wuling and Laobai Gan brands, with total revenues for these brands reaching 2.59 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, revenue and profit grew by 3% and 13% respectively, with the gross margin rising to 68.6%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a long-term growth strategy, with a target for 2025 of 2% revenue growth and 12% profit growth [6] - The company continues to focus on maintaining healthy channel relationships and enhancing profitability through cost control measures [6]