January 16, 2026 03:30 PM GMT JCET Group Co Ltd | Asia Pacific More Visibility on Advanced Packaging, but Fairly Priced | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS) | From | To | | Rating | Underweight | Equal-weight | | Price Target | Rmb23.50 | Rmb48.50 | JCET stock has rallied in reaction to rising back-end pricing and capacity ramp-up in 2.5D packaging. However, smartphone and PC end demand is challenging in 2026, owing to memory price hikes. JCET is not immune to the weakn ...

如何把握本轮半导体先进封装板块行情？20260116 摘要 全球先进封装市场规模庞大且持续增长，预计到 2029 年将超过 794 亿 美元，台积电等头部企业占比提升，将带动日月光、安靠及大陆长电通 富等封测公司迎来发展机遇。 技术升级驱动封测公司从传统工序向高性能引擎转变，提升价值分配。 多芯片集成等新技术提高 AI 芯片性能，COS L 单片价值可达 1.5~1.7 万美元，较传统封装价值大幅提升。 封测行业价格显著上涨，日月光宣布 2026 年一季度起后端晶圆封装代 工服务价格上调 5~20%，急单涨幅更高。高端需求增长和原材料涨价 是主要驱动因素。 国产算力芯片迎来爆发期，2026-2027 年出货量预计大幅提升，本土 化算力芯片发展将推动国产化供应链建设，加速新型封装板块发展，带 来显著投资机会。 长电先进 XDFOI 全系列产品已量产，覆盖 2.5D/3D 异构集成等前沿领 域，FOY 技术支持 4 纳米节点多芯片集成，良率高，正加速产能建设， COS 月产能预计今年接近 3,000 片，未来有望持续扩张，显著提升利润 率。 Q&A 近年来 AI 技术的深化对封装行业带来了哪些影响？ AI 技术的 ...

长电科技（600584）2025年12月宣布公司旗下车规级芯片封测工厂（JSAC）如期实现通线。京隆科技 2026年1月5日高阶半导体测试项目新厂投产，总投资40亿元，涵盖人工智能、车规级、工业级等高阶芯 片测试领域。通富微电（002156）2026年1月9日披露定增预案，拟定增募资不超44亿元用于存储芯片、 汽车等新兴应用领域、晶圆级封测、高性能计算机通信领域封测产能提升。甬矽电子2026年1月12日公 告拟投资不超过21亿元在马来西亚建设封测基地。此外，日本半导体公司Rapidus计划2026年春季在北 海道启动半导体后道（封测）试产线；海力士2026年1月13日宣布投资19万亿韩元（现汇折算约910亿人 民币）建设清州先进封装工厂P&T7，应对HBM等AI内存需求。 封测涨价：核心推手是结构性需求旺盛与成本传导 据工商时报，日月光因AI芯片需求增长及原材料成本上涨，预计调涨价格5-20%，中国台湾力成、南茂 等封测厂订单饱满，产能接近满载，已启动首轮涨价，涨幅高达30%。结构上看，AI芯片与存储芯片需 求持续高景气，海外存储厂商将资源向先进封装（如HBM）倾斜，可能导致标准型存储芯片的封测产 能趋紧。同 ...

Group 1 - As of January 16, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 27,315.37 billion yuan, an increase of 127.86 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 1.65% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume for margin transactions on the same day was 3,364.9 billion yuan, which is an increase of 184.47 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 10.99% of the total A-share trading volume [1] - Among the 31 primary industries, 20 experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net inflow of 10.279 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The top individual stocks with net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan included China Ping An, which had a net inflow of 1.332 billion yuan, followed by TBEA, Kweichow Moutai, and others [1] - The report from Huawei indicates that by 2035, the total computing power in society is expected to grow by up to 100,000 times, suggesting a significant upward trend in the semiconductor cycle driven by artificial intelligence [2] - The research from Huajin Securities recommends focusing on the entire semiconductor industry chain, from design and manufacturing to packaging testing and upstream equipment materials [2]

上周市场情绪出现较大波动。星石投资表示，短期来看，在监管政策的导向下，市场炒作情绪较前期有 所下行，叠加当前A股整体融资余额占比处于相对合理水平，此次调整对市场场内流动性的实际影响不 大，更多是对短期情绪端产生影响。这种政策信号大概率不会影响市场方向，只是对资金流动方向存在 影响。向后看，随着年报业绩预告披露开启，行业景气线索明晰，资金对具有业绩支撑板块的关注度会 有所提升。 □本报记者 王宇露 上周市场震荡，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨0.60%，报2059.78点。长电科技（600584）、华润 微、广联达（002410）等成分股上周表现强势；开年以来，安集科技、中微公司、长电科技等成分股涨 幅居前。展望后市，机构认为，2026年宏观政策和产业层面积极因素居多，出现系统性风险概率较低， 市场整体具备趋势向上的基础，结构选择仍是投资关键。 多只成分股表现强势 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股表现强势。具体来说，长电科技上涨17.51%，排在涨幅榜首位；华润微 上涨17.36%，居次席；广联达和科大讯飞（002230）分别上涨16.30%和14.57%；安集科技、华谊集团 （600623）、兆易创新（603986 ...

上周市场震荡，上证指数下跌0.45%，深证成指上涨1.14%，创业板指上涨1.00%，沪深300指数下跌 0.57%，品牌工程指数上涨0.60%，报2059.78点。 □本报记者 王宇露 上周市场震荡，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨0.60%，报2059.78点。长电科技、华润微、广联达等 成分股上周表现强势；开年以来，安集科技、中微公司、长电科技等成分股涨幅居前。展望后市，机构 认为，2026年宏观政策和产业层面积极因素居多，出现系统性风险概率较低，市场整体具备趋势向上的 基础，结构选择仍是投资关键。 多只成分股表现强势 上周市场情绪出现较大波动。星石投资表示，短期来看，在监管政策的导向下，市场炒作情绪较前期有 所下行，叠加当前A股整体融资余额占比处于相对合理水平，此次调整对市场场内流动性的实际影响不 大，更多是对短期情绪端产生影响。这种政策信号大概率不会影响市场方向，只是对资金流动方向存在 影响。向后看，随着年报业绩预告披露开启，行业景气线索明晰，资金对具有业绩支撑板块的关注度会 有所提升。 星石投资认为，中期维度下，不同行业表现差异较大，部分板块仍处于偏低位置，随着国内政策发力带 动供需平衡、价格回升， ...

半导体 半导体 2026 年 01 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 半导体 沪深300 相关研究报告 《AI 算力自主可控的全景蓝图与投资 机遇—行业投资策略》-2026.1.8 《供应链安全事件催化，半导体材料/ 设备自主可控有望提速—行业点评报 告》-2026.1.8 《半导体释放涨价信号，晶圆厂、存 储、模拟有望进入价格上行期—行业 点评报告》-2025.12.25 先进封装龙头积极抢滩布局，产业进入"扩产+提价" 新阶段 ——行业点评报告 陈蓉芳（分析师） 祁海超（联系人） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 qihaichao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070022 台积电：2026 年资本开支超预期，先进封装持续规模化投入 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电召开 2025Q4 交流会，对 2026 年的资本开支指引为 520-560 亿美元（2025 年 409 亿，显著上修至多 36.9%），其中先 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant investment and strategic shifts in the semiconductor packaging industry, particularly focusing on advanced packaging technologies driven by the AI wave and the structural changes in the storage industry [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Market Trends - SK Hynix announced a 19 trillion KRW (approximately 12.9 billion USD) investment to build an advanced chip packaging factory in Cheongju, South Korea, reflecting the structural changes in the storage industry due to AI [1]. - The global advanced chip packaging market is projected to grow from 50.38 billion USD in 2025 to 79.85 billion USD by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% [2]. - By early 2026, leading packaging and testing companies are expected to ramp up advanced packaging capacity, indicating a competitive landscape focused on advanced packaging capabilities [2]. Group 2: TSMC's Dominance - TSMC is recognized as the leader in advanced packaging, holding over 60% market share in semiconductor manufacturing and establishing significant competitive barriers in advanced packaging technologies [2][3]. - TSMC has developed three branches of CoWoS technology: CoWoS-S for medium-sized chips, CoWoS-R for greater design flexibility, and CoWoS-L for large AI chips [3]. - TSMC's SoIC technology, based on CoWoS and wafer-on-wafer stacking, offers higher interconnect density and improved performance compared to traditional 2.5D packaging [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Technological Advancements - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to increase 6-8 times from 2023 to 2026, with a CAGR exceeding 60% [5]. - TSMC's new advanced packaging facilities, including the flagship AP6 plant in Zhunan, are designed for full automation and are expected to handle significant orders from major clients like NVIDIA and AMD [5][6]. - TSMC is also expanding its advanced packaging capabilities in the U.S. with plans for two new facilities in Arizona, focusing on SoIC and CoPoS technologies [6]. Group 4: Competitors' Strategies - ASE, as the largest packaging and testing foundry, is benefiting from the advanced packaging trend, with over 60% of its ATM business expected to come from advanced packaging by 2025 [9]. - ASE is developing its own 2.5D packaging platform, FOCoS, and is expanding its production capacity across multiple sites, including a new K28 plant aimed at meeting the demand for AI and GPU chips [10][11]. - Amkor is enhancing its market position through partnerships, such as its collaboration with Intel on EMIB technology, and expanding its facilities in the U.S. to meet advanced packaging demands [15][16]. Group 5: Mainland China's Participation - Mainland Chinese companies are actively investing in advanced packaging technologies and capacity, with firms like Yongxi Electronics and Changjiang Electronics focusing on high-density packaging and automotive electronics [20][22]. - Yongxi Electronics is establishing a new production base in Malaysia to enhance its overseas strategy, while Changjiang Electronics is expanding its automotive electronics packaging capabilities [21][22]. - Tongfu Microelectronics is also increasing its advanced packaging capacity, particularly in automotive and high-performance computing sectors, to meet growing market demands [23][24]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article concludes that while TSMC's dominance in advanced packaging is unlikely to be challenged in the short term, other specialized packaging firms are seeking to differentiate themselves through flexible capacity and innovative technologies [25][27]. - The collective expansion of packaging firms represents a significant industry bet on the demand for AI-driven computing power, with the potential for winners to emerge as the market stabilizes and technology paths clarify [27].

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical role of advanced packaging and SiC technology in addressing the surging demand for AI computing power, highlighting the industry's shift towards these innovations as a solution to existing limitations in traditional chip packaging [5][7][24]. Industry Overview - The demand for computing power is expected to grow exponentially, with China's intelligent computing scale projected to reach 1037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, increasing by 40% in 2026 [7]. - Traditional packaging methods are unable to cope with the power limits, as chip performance improvements lead to a threefold increase in power consumption for every doubling of performance [7][9]. Advanced Packaging Technology - Advanced packaging techniques, including 2.5D/3D stacking and the use of SiC as an intermediary layer, are essential for overcoming thermal management challenges and enhancing chip interconnect density by over 10 times [9][11]. - The global advanced packaging market is forecasted to exceed $79 billion by 2030, with 2.5D/3D packaging experiencing a growth rate of 37% [9]. SiC Technology - SiC is identified as the optimal solution for intermediary layers due to its superior thermal conductivity (490 W/m·K), hardness (Mohs hardness of 9.5), and ability to support high aspect ratio through-hole designs, improving wiring density and transmission speed by 20% [11][13]. - By 2027, SiC intermediary layer mass production is anticipated, with a projected need for over 2.3 million 12-inch SiC substrates by 2030, indicating a significant supply gap [14]. Market Dynamics - The advanced packaging boom is characterized by a collective resonance across the entire supply chain, including equipment, materials, and OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) sectors [16]. - Key players in the OSAT space include Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics, both of which are positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend and the growing demand for advanced packaging solutions [16][21]. Investment Opportunities - Four key investment directions are highlighted: SiC materials and equipment, advanced packaging OSAT, critical materials, and mixed bonding/3D packaging technologies [19][20][21][22]. - Companies such as Tianyue Advanced and Sanan Optoelectronics are noted for their advancements in 12-inch SiC substrate production, while equipment manufacturers like Jing Sheng and Huahai Qingke are breaking through overseas monopolies [20][18]. Conclusion - The advanced packaging industry is evolving from a semiconductor backend process to a core component of computing power, essential for AI, data centers, and smart driving applications [24]. - The industry is on the brink of a significant growth phase, driven by the upcoming mass production of SiC intermediary layers and breakthroughs in domestic supply chains [24].

消息面上，国家电网公司1月15日宣布，"十五五"期间公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，较"十四 五"投资增长40%，用于新型电力系统建设。 盘面上，半导体产业链持续活跃，天岳先进、甬矽电子以20%幅度涨停；电网设备板块涨幅居前，电科 院、森源电气、思源电气等多股涨停；人形机器人概念走高，五洲新春、方正电机涨停；AI应用端持 续调整，省广集团、浙文互联等多只个股跌停。 供不应求驱动电网设备、存储概念走强 1月16日，电网设备板块全天表现活跃。截至收盘，电科院以20%幅度涨停，红相股份、新风光涨超 10%，广电电气、森源电气等多只个股涨停。 A股成交额重回3万亿元 电网设备板块多股涨停 ◎记者 李雨琪 1月16日，A股市场高开后震荡调整。截至收盘，上证指数报4101.91点，跌0.26%；深证成指报14281.08 点，跌0.18%；创业板指报3361.02点，跌0.20%；科创综指报1855.03点，涨1.63%。沪深北三市全天成 交30565亿元，重回3万亿元上方。 中国银河证券研报认为，2026年电网"出海"将延续量价齐升。未来海外市场电网投资有望提速，且海外 市场供给端供不应求，欧美电力变压器和高压电缆的 ...