海螺水泥交流240507财通原文 2024年05月07日16:46 发言人100:05 11.8如果是全口径的话，是下降了16.28%，其中三月份是下降的特别多。三月份行业是同比同口径下降 了22%，全国均价25%。公司一季度的水泥资产品的同比下降是8%，水泥销量维持在一个比较稳定的状 况。因为二月份是过年，所以2份比较低，其他平均每个月也有，日均有80万吨，所以一季度的水泥的 资产品的经销量有5500多万吨。总体而言的话，公司在全行业亏损的情况下，公司其实业绩是保持了一 个比较稳定。虽然有一定的下降，但是下降的幅度是优于行业的。近期因为天气的回暖，因为前两天是 五一劳动节，所以销量可能还是比较少。因为放假，然后最近两天的话销量是有明显的恢复，已经基本 上恢复到之前的八九成左右 发言人201:17 好的，明白。会议秘书，您播报一下提问方式。 发言人301:25 大家好，如需提问电话端的参会者，请先按话机上的星号键，再按数字一，网络端的参会者，您可以在 直播间互动区域内文字提问，或点击旁边的举手按钮申请语音提问，谢谢。大家好，如需提问电话端的 参会者，请先按话机上的星号键，再按数字一。网络端的参会者，您可以在直 ...

%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨海螺水泥（ ） 600585.SH [Table_Title] 需求淡季，赚取成本溢价 24Q1 报告要点 [公Ta司bl披e_露Su一m季m报ar，y]2024Q1营收约213.28亿元，同比减少32.08%；归属净利润约15.02亿元， 同比减少41.14%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2024 revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 21.33 billion and net profit of 1.50 billion, representing year-on-year decreases of 32.1% and 41.1% respectively [3] - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with national cement production down 11.8% year-on-year in Q1, leading to intensified market competition and lower prices [3] - Despite the challenges, the company has shown effective cost control, with total expenses down 10.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin improvement to 17.7% [3] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge through cost leadership and expansion into new growth areas, including aggregate and concrete production [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 132.02 billion, with projections of 150.99 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from 10.43 billion in 2023 to 9.02 billion in 2024, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 13.50% [2] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.70 yuan per share for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 13.68 based on the closing price on April 29 [2][4] Industry Outlook - The cement industry is expected to continue facing challenges in demand recovery, with inventory control relying on staggered production halts [3] - The company plans to increase its aggregate production capacity by 25.5 million tons and ready-mixed concrete capacity by 7.2 million cubic meters, indicating a steady expansion strategy [3] - The report suggests that the company’s internationalization efforts may provide new growth opportunities amid the current market conditions [4]

公司报告 | 季报点评 海螺水泥（600585） 证券研究报告 2024年04月 29日 投资评级 盈利底部或已逐渐夯实，水泥涨价有望带动业绩边际改善 行业 建筑材料/水泥 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 22.77元 公司一季度实现扣非归母净利润13.68亿元，同比下滑36.56% 公司发布 24 年一季报，24Q1 实现收入/归母净利润 213.28/15.02 亿元， 目标价格 29.15元 同比-32.08%/-41.14%，实现扣非归母净利润13.68亿元，同比-36.56%，非 经常性损益主要系计入当期损益的政府补助。 基本数据 A股总股本(百万股) 3,999.70 24Q1水泥量价或同步承压，Q2价格有望反弹 流通A股股本(百万股) 3,999.70 1-3 月全国水泥产量同比-11.8%，公司主要区域在华东地区，1-3 月水泥 A股总市值(百万元) 91,073.23 产量同比-10%，考虑到公司龙头地位，我们判断公司销量下滑幅度或低于 流通A股市值(百万元) 91,073.23 全国水平。价格方面，我们计算一季度华东地区水泥均价363 元/吨，同比 -80 元，公司吨均价同比或有下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.00 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 18x [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 met expectations, showcasing its competitive strength amid industry pressures. Revenue for Q1 2024 was 21.328 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 32.08%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.502 billion CNY, down 41.14% year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates that the cement price in the Yangtze River region may have bottomed out, with expectations for demand recovery. Recent price increases in the East China region indicate a potential for improved profitability as supply constraints are expected to strengthen [2]. - The company's integrated business is rapidly developing, with significant capital expenditures planned for 2024, including new clinker and cement capacities [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 140.999 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%. However, for 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 1.7% to 138.578 billion CNY [9]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 10.430 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. The forecast for 2024 shows a further decline to 8.897 billion CNY, down 14.7% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is adjusted to 1.68 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x for 2024, 12x for 2025, and 11x for 2026 [2][9].

[Table_Page] 季报点评|水泥 证券研究报告 [海Table_螺Title] 水泥(600585.SH/00914.HK) 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-A/买入-H 当前价格 22.77元/17.86港元 盈利超额优势扩大，业绩超预期 合理价值 28.58元/22.42港元 前次评级 买入/买入 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 报告日期 2024-04-28 ⚫ 公司发布2024年一季报，实现收入213亿元，同比-32%，归母净利 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 润15亿元，同比-41%，扣非净利润13.7亿元，同比-37%。 ⚫ Q1销量降幅好于行业，成本管控能力强。1季度地产和基建需求双弱， 10% 4% 据国家统计局，Q1水泥行业产量同比下滑12%（用产量直接计算下滑 -2%04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 16%），估算Q1公司水泥和熟料销量约5600万吨（同比-8%），降幅 -8% 小于行业，继续保持产能发挥率优势，份额有所提升；1季度吨煤炭成 -14% -20% 本预计同比下降 20-30 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a solid position in the market despite current challenges [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.328 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 32.08%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.502 billion yuan, down 41.14% year-on-year [1]. - The cement industry faced a decline in both volume and price in Q1 2024, influenced by increased rainfall, weak real estate investment, and insufficient infrastructure project commencement [2]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.25 percentage points year-on-year to 17.75%, attributed to lower coal prices and structural support from aggregate and overseas businesses [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company’s net profit margin was 6.41%, slightly down from 6.87% in the same period last year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow was 160 million yuan, with total monetary assets at 66.3 billion yuan and short-term borrowings reduced to 3.84 billion yuan from 4.48 billion yuan at the beginning of the period [3]. Industry Analysis - The national cement production in Q1 2024 was 33.684 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.28%, with the average national cement price at 362 yuan per ton, down 15.40% year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in infrastructure demand due to government initiatives, including the issuance of special bonds for local governments [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.266 billion yuan, 10.868 billion yuan, and 11.742 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x [4][5]. - The report suggests that the cement industry is currently at a relatively low point, but the company’s leading position and competitive advantages are expected to support its recovery [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Conch Cement (600585.SH) [2][9]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing pressure on both volume and price, leading to a continued bottoming out of industry profitability. The first quarter saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to weak demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][5]. - Despite a decrease in coal costs, the drop in cement prices has resulted in a decline in gross profit per ton, contributing to a 41% year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first quarter. The company’s operating cash flow has also decreased significantly [3][4]. - The report anticipates that with the gradual implementation of special government bond projects and enhanced industry collaboration, cement profitability is expected to stabilize [3][5]. Financial Summary - For the first quarter of 2024, Conch Cement reported revenue of 21.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, and a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, down 41.1% from the previous year [3][4]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.1 billion yuan, 10.5 billion yuan, and 11.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.2x, 11.5x, and 10.1x [3][4][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline to 14.4% in 2024, with a net margin of 6.1% [8]. Operational Insights - The company has a strong cash position with 66.34 billion yuan in cash at the end of the reporting period, despite a decrease in operating cash flow [3][6]. - The report highlights that Conch Cement is strategically positioned in the East and South China markets, which are expected to show more resilience in demand [3][5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the ongoing recovery in real estate construction and the issuance of special government bonds are likely to boost future infrastructure demand [3][5]. - The company is recognized for its cost control and operational efficiency, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3][5].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the reporting period was CNY 21,327,718,918, a decrease of 32.08% compared to the previous year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1,502,318,719, down 41.14% year-on-year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 1,368,419,403, a decrease of 36.56% compared to the same period last year[4] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both CNY 0.28, down 40.91% from the previous year[4] - Weighted average return on equity decreased by 0.57 percentage points to 0.81%[4] - The decline in revenue and profit was primarily due to a decrease in sales volume and prices of cement products[9] - Total operating revenue for Q1 2024 was RMB 21,327,718,918, a decrease of 32.2% compared to RMB 31,403,390,457 in Q1 2023[17] - The company's operating profit for Q1 2024 was CNY 1.71 billion, a decrease of 42.9% compared to CNY 3.00 billion in Q1 2023[18] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was CNY 1.50 billion, down 41.1% from CNY 2.55 billion in Q1 2023[18] - Total comprehensive income for Q1 2024 was CNY 1.39 billion, a decline of 44.0% from CNY 2.47 billion in Q1 2023[18] - The company reported a decrease in sales revenue from CNY 37.84 billion in Q1 2023 to CNY 25.07 billion in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 33.8%[20] Cash Flow and Assets - Net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 159,585,210, a significant decline of 94.87% year-on-year[4] - Cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 159.59 million, significantly lower than CNY 3.11 billion in Q1 2023[20] - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2024, were RMB 66,336,636,055, down from RMB 68,382,205,847 as of December 31, 2023[14] - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2024 were CNY 11.47 billion, a decrease from CNY 18.43 billion at the end of Q1 2023[21] - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 245,174,906,636, a slight decrease of 0.48% compared to the end of the previous year[4] - Total assets decreased to RMB 245,174,906,636 from RMB 246,356,360,411, indicating a slight contraction in the company's asset base[16] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 291,919[10] - Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd. holds 1,928,870,014 shares, accounting for 36.40% of the total shares[10] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 1,297,858,090 shares, representing 24.49% of the total shares[10] - The company has a repurchase account holding 22,242,535 shares, which is 0.42% of the total issued capital[11] - The total number of shares held by the top ten unrestricted shareholders is 3,346,000,000 shares[10] - The proportion of shares held by the top ten unrestricted shareholders is 63.00% of the total shares[10] - The top ten shareholders do not have any related party relationships or concerted actions[10] Operational Insights - The company does not have any significant changes in the operational situation during the reporting period[13] - There are no applicable reminders for investors regarding the company's operational situation during the reporting period[13] - The acquisition of Anhui Conch Information Technology Engineering Co., Ltd. and its subsidiary was completed in January 2024, requiring restatement of prior financial statements[7] Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs for Q1 2024 were RMB 19,736,771,656, down 31.2% from RMB 28,708,158,815 in Q1 2023[17] - Research and development expenses in Q1 2024 amounted to RMB 185,757,727, a decrease of 30% from RMB 265,299,174 in Q1 2023[17] - Cash inflow from investment activities in Q1 2024 was CNY 5.71 billion, down 49.1% from CNY 11.22 billion in Q1 2023[21] - Cash outflow from investment activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 6.56 billion, a decrease of 46.5% compared to CNY 12.27 billion in Q1 2023[21] - Net cash flow from financing activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 580.43 million, an increase from CNY 68.48 million in Q1 2023[21] Debt and Liabilities - Long-term borrowings increased to RMB 16,694,144,033 from RMB 15,611,937,445, suggesting a strategy to leverage debt for growth[16]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 21.33 billion, a decrease of 32.08% compared to CNY 31.37 billion in the same period last year[4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.50 billion, down 41.14% from CNY 2.55 billion year-on-year[4]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both CNY 0.28, representing a decrease of 40.91% from CNY 0.48 in the same period last year[4]. - The total comprehensive income for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,385,793,521, a decrease of 44% compared to CNY 2,471,474,616 in Q1 2023[18]. - Net profit for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,487,880,502, a decline of 44.5% from CNY 2,672,589,836 in Q1 2023[17]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 159.59 million, a significant decline of 94.87% compared to CNY 3.09 billion in the previous year[4]. - In Q1 2024, the company's cash inflow from operating activities totaled CNY 25,451,623,532, a decrease of 33.5% compared to CNY 38,295,961,496 in Q1 2023[20]. - The net cash outflow from operating activities was CNY 159,585,210, a significant decline from CNY 3,108,356,197 in the same period last year[20]. - Cash inflow from investment activities was CNY 5,713,568,285, down 49.1% from CNY 11,218,087,944 in Q1 2023[20]. - The net cash outflow from investment activities was CNY -847,235,460, an improvement from CNY -1,049,753,693 in Q1 2023[20]. - Cash inflow from financing activities reached CNY 3,259,383,212, an increase of 27.6% compared to CNY 2,552,901,088 in Q1 2023[21]. - The net cash outflow from financing activities was CNY 2,678,956,104, compared to CNY 2,484,418,875 in the previous year[21]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 246.36 billion, a slight decrease of 0.48% from the previous year-end[5]. - The total liabilities decreased to CNY 99,392,853,822 from CNY 101,232,721,726, indicating a decline of about 1.84%[12]. - The company's total liabilities decreased to CNY 46,021,060,380 as of March 31, 2024, down from CNY 48,335,063,593 at the end of 2023, representing a reduction of 4.3%[14]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased to CNY 186,494,645,422 as of March 31, 2024, compared to CNY 185,389,128,400 at the end of 2023, reflecting a growth of 0.6%[14]. - The company's total non-current liabilities increased to CNY 19,697,167,276 as of March 31, 2024, up from CNY 18,560,750,419 at the end of 2023, an increase of 6.1%[14]. Shareholder Information - The company repurchased 22,242,535 shares, accounting for 0.42% of the total issued share capital[10]. - The top 10 shareholders hold a combined total of 4,000,000,000 shares, representing approximately 75% of the total shares outstanding[10]. - The company has no significant changes in the shareholder structure or related party transactions as of the reporting date[10]. Operational Metrics - The decline in revenue and profit was primarily due to a decrease in sales volume and prices of cement products[7]. - Research and development expenses for Q1 2024 were CNY 185,757,727, a decrease of 30% from CNY 265,299,174 in Q1 2023[17]. - The company reported a decrease in management expenses to CNY 1,345,808,976 in Q1 2024, down from CNY 1,475,830,763 in Q1 2023, a reduction of 8.8%[17]. Current Assets - As of March 31, 2024, the company's total current assets amounted to CNY 99,392,853,822, a decrease from CNY 101,232,721,726 as of December 31, 2023, representing a decline of approximately 1.84%[11]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents were CNY 66,336,636,055, down from CNY 68,382,205,847, indicating a decrease of about 2.99%[11]. - Accounts receivable decreased to CNY 3,672,811,264 from CNY 4,445,287,639, reflecting a reduction of approximately 17.35%[11]. - The company's inventory increased slightly to CNY 10,295,563,292 from CNY 10,155,441,636, showing an increase of about 1.39%[12]. - Long-term equity investments rose to CNY 7,821,466,231 from CNY 7,765,191,948, marking an increase of approximately 0.72%[12]. - The company reported a total of CNY 1,974,775,745 in trading financial assets, down from CNY 2,210,732,788, a decrease of about 10.65%[11]. Other Financial Metrics - Non-recurring gains and losses totaled CNY 133.90 million for the period, with government subsidies contributing CNY 194.82 million[6]. - The company received tax refunds of CNY 18,150,210 in Q1 2024, up from CNY 9,109,121 in Q1 2023[20]. - The total cash paid for purchasing goods and services was CNY 20,015,126,936, a decrease of 31.9% from CNY 29,376,859,297 in Q1 2023[20]. - The company reported a foreign exchange impact of CNY 3,432,960 on cash and cash equivalents in Q1 2024, compared to a negative impact of CNY -21,661,089 in Q1 2023[21].