证券研究报告 | 2024年03月27日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 买入 结构升级韧性凸显，基础分红比例提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 事件：青岛啤酒公布2023年年报，全年实现营业总收入339.37亿元，同比+5.5%； 食品饮料·非白酒 实现归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.0%。其中，2023年第四季度实现营业总收入 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：杨苑 29.58亿元，同比-3.4%；实现归母净利润-6.40亿元，同比-15.0%。 021-60933131 021-60933124 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cnyangyuan4@guosen.com.cn 中高档产品销量同比+10.6%，总销量虽下滑但结构升级韧性凸显。2023年实现啤酒 S0980523090001 S0980523090003 业务收入334.06亿元，同比+5.4%。拆分量价来看，2023年公司销量800.7万千升， 基础数据 同比-0.8%，主要受到下半年销量增长表现较弱的拖累。虽销量有所承压，公司销售 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 均价表现良好，全年啤酒销售均价同比+6.3%，其 ...

食品饮料/非白酒 公 司 研 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 结构持续升级，分红率明显提升 究 2024年03月28日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn fangyong@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790520030003 证书编号：S0790520100003 日期 2024/3/28 当前股价(元) 84.14  收入稳定增长，分红率提高 公 一年最高最低(元) 125.65/67.56 2023 年公司营收 339.4 亿元，同比+5.49%；扣非前后归母净利润 42.7、37.2 亿 司 元，同比+15.02%、+15.94%。2023Q4营收29.6亿元，同比-3.37%；扣非前后归 信 总市值(亿元) 1,147.84 息 流通市值(亿元) 592.93 母净利润亏 6.4、亏 8.8 亿元，同比亏损有所扩大。公司拟分红每股股利 2 元， 更 总股本(亿股) 13.64 本次分红率63.9%。因消费力下降、餐饮需求疲软，我们下调2024-2025年归母 新 报 流通股本(亿股) 7.05 净利润预测 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 青岛啤酒(600600)公司点评报告 2024年3月28日 [Table_Title啤] 酒结构升级，品牌矩阵顺势 [Table_Inves 买t] 入|维持 ——青岛啤酒 2023 年报点评 [T[ Taabbl事ele__件SSuu mmmmaarryy]] [[基TTaa本bbll数ee__据BTaa rsgee]t Price] 公司公告2023年报。23年全年，公司实现总营收339.37亿元，同比+5.49%， 归母净利42.68亿元，同比+15.02%，扣非归母净利37.21亿元，同比+15.94%。 52周最高/最低价（元）： 124.33 / 68.35 23Q4，公司实现总营收29.58亿元，同比-3.37%，归母净利-6.40亿元（22Q4 A股流通股（百万股）： 1359.77 为-5.56亿元），扣非归母净利-8.76亿元（22Q4为-6.51亿元）。  23Q4淡季表现基本平稳，23全年产品结构持续升级 A股总股本（百万股）： 1364.20 1）23Q4淡季销量同比小幅下滑，23年全年中高端销量较快增 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 03月 27日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 83.76元 青岛啤酒（600600） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 高端化升级步履坚定，全年实现量稳价增 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2023年年报，全年实现收入339.4亿元，同比+5.5%，实现归 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 母净利润为42.7亿元，同比+15%，实现扣非归母净利润37.2亿元，同比+15.9%； 执业证号：S1250513110001 其中 23Q4实现收入 29.6亿元，同比-3.4%，实现归母净利润-6.4亿元，上年 电话：023-63786049 同期为-5.6亿元，实现扣非归母净利润-8.8亿元，上年同期为-8.8亿元；公司业 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 绩符合市场预期。 分析师：舒尚立  Q4 短期销量有所波动，全年实现量稳价增。量方面，公司全年实现啤酒销量 执业证号：S1250523070009 800.7万吨，同比-0.8%，其中23Q4实现销量71.3万吨，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 33.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.268 billion yuan, up 15.02% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend totaling approximately 2.73 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 63.9%, significantly higher than the previous year's 47.8% [2] - Despite a slight decline in sales volume of 0.8% year-on-year to 8.007 million kiloliters, the company saw a strong performance in ton price, which increased by 6.3% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 38.7% in 2023, driven by a significant increase in ton price [2] - The report forecasts operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 35.396 billion, 36.850 billion, and 38.279 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.1%, and 3.9% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 4.268 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.0% [6] - The company’s operating costs were 20.817 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 38.66% [6] - The report projects net profits of 5.031 billion, 5.744 billion, and 6.458 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 17.9%, 14.2%, and 12.4% [6] Market Dynamics - The beer industry is currently in a favorable competitive phase, with significant room for high-end product development [2] - The report highlights that the demand for products priced between 8-10 yuan remains strong, indicating a positive market outlook for the company’s flagship products [2] Cost Structure - The company’s ton cost increased by 3.3% year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices and structural optimization [2] - The report anticipates that the cancellation of anti-dumping policies on Australian malt will benefit malt procurement prices in 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 33.94 billion yuan (yoy +5.5%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan (yoy +15.0%) [2][3] - The company is focusing on high-end product strategies, with a significant increase in the sales of mid-to-high-end products, leading to an overall price increase [3] - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions in 2024, with a projected increase in gross margin due to lower barley prices and packaging costs [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 33.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 4.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.0 yuan per share, with a total dividend payout of 2.73 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 64% [2] - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 38.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 3.13 yuan, with projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 3.70 yuan, 4.20 yuan, and 4.72 yuan respectively [2][4] Market and Strategic Insights - The company sold 8.007 million kiloliters in 2023, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, but high-end product sales increased by 10.6% [3] - The company is implementing a product mix strategy to enhance brand value and market presence [3] - The company’s market share in Shandong province remains strong, accounting for 68.5% of its revenue [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 5.05 billion yuan, 5.73 billion yuan, and 6.43 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 13%, and 12% [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23, 20, and 18 times respectively [4]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 青岛啤酒(600600.SH) 2024年03月27日 买入（维持） 青岛啤酒（600600.SH）：结构升级 所属行业：食品饮料/非白酒 趋势不改，关注旺季销量表现 当前价格(元)：83.76 证券分析师 投资要点 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 事件：公司发布 2023 年年度报告。2023 年公司实现营收 339.37 亿元，同比  邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn +5.49%；归母净利润42.68亿元，同比+15.02%；扣非归母净利润37.21亿元， 韦香怡 同比+15.94%。其中，2023Q4单季度实现营收29.58亿元，同比-3.37%；归母净 资格编号：S0120522080002 利润-6.40亿元，同比-15.01%；扣非归母净利润-8.76亿元，同比-34.53%。 邮箱：weixy＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 全年销量略有下滑，中高档产品拉动吨价上行。（1）销量方面，23年全年公司实  现啤酒销量800.7万吨，同比-0.8%。其中，青岛主品牌销量456万吨，同比+2.7%； 中高端销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is maintained at "Buy - A" with a target price of 110 CNY for the next six months, which corresponds to a PE ratio of 29 times for 2024 [2][6]. Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of 33.937 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.268 billion CNY, up 15.02% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company experienced a slight decline in sales volume, down 0.82% year-on-year to 8.007 million kiloliters, primarily due to a high base, a shorter summer season, and unexpected events [1][2]. - The report highlights a continued trend of product structure upgrading, with mid-to-high-end products seeing a sales increase of 10.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - Cost pressures are expected to ease, with a gross margin increase of 1.73 percentage points to 38.51% in 2023, and a forecast for improved profit margins due to better raw material supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 6.6%, 6.7%, and 6.1%, respectively, while profit growth rates are expected to be 21.1%, 16.4%, and 9.7% [1][6]. - The company's net profit margin for 2023 was 12.58%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.61 percentage points [1][2]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including expected earnings per share (EPS) of 3.80 CNY for 2024 and a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.4 for the same year [4][6].

公 司 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 啤酒 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃d 青yCo 岛mp 啤any＃酒 （ 600600 ） investSug 增持 ( 维ges持tion ）Ch 000009 ＃title＃ 还原年金计提后 23Q4 符合预期，升级韧性兑现 ange＃ ＃ createTime1＃ 2024年 3月 27 日 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃summary＃ 司 事件：青岛啤酒公布2023年年报，2023年实现营收339.37亿元，同比+5.49%， 日期 2024/3/27 归母净利润 42.68 亿元，同比+15.02%；其中 23Q4 实现营收 29.58 亿元，同 点 收盘价（元） 83.76 比-3.37%，归母净利润-6.40亿元，上年同期为-5.56亿元。 评 总股本（百万股） 1364.20 报 流通股本（百万股） 704.70 主品牌升级韧性兑现，核心市场稳健增长 净资产（百万元） 27449.48 2023 全年啤酒业务收入同比+5.39%(销量 800.7 万吨/同比-0.81%，吨价 告 4172.07 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [1][5] Core Views - The company continues to experience structural upgrades in its product offerings, with profit elasticity expected to be released in 2024 [1][4] - Despite a decline in sales volume in Q4 2023 due to external factors, the overall revenue for the year increased, supported by product upgrades [2][3] - The company is expected to recover sales gradually throughout 2024, aided by the upcoming summer Olympics and the easing of high base effects [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - In 2023, Qingdao Beer achieved a total beer sales volume of 8.01 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.81%. Q4 sales volume was particularly affected, dropping by 10.09% year-on-year [2] - The main brand, Qingdao, saw a sales volume of 4.56 million kiloliters in 2023, an increase of 2.74%, accounting for 57.0% of total sales [2] - The average selling price for beer in 2023 was 4,238 RMB per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.34% [2] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 33.937 billion RMB, a growth of 5.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.268 billion RMB, up 15.02% year-on-year [3][5] - The gross margin improved to 38.66%, and the net margin reached 12.58%, both showing year-on-year increases [2][3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 35.226 billion RMB, 36.800 billion RMB, and 38.344 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.5%, and 4.2% [5][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 4.987 billion RMB, 5.754 billion RMB, and 6.537 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16.9%, 15.4%, and 13.6% [5][7]