Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 605 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 52% compared to 2024[1] - The expected operating revenue for 2025 is 4,157 million RMB, with a growth rate of 4% from 2024[1] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.6, with a PE ratio of 18[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Risks - The valuation for 2025-2027 is projected at 18x, 16x, and 14x, with a PEG ratio of less than 1 for 2026[1] - The company is expected to launch innovative and hard-to-replicate products, including a new drug expected to be approved in 2025[1] - Risks include fluctuations in customer demand and potential delays in product development[1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with the raw material drug business stabilizing[1] - The beverage industry is expected to see improved sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with a narrowing decline[1] - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with a target of 5 billion RMB by 2025[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in the commercial aerospace business of Zhongke Xingtu, with a revenue increase of 137.51% year-on-year in H1 2025, and low-altitude economy revenue accounting for 4.73% of total revenue [1] - Institutional data indicates a recent concentrated buying of military industry stocks by trusts, while wealth management subsidiaries have reduced their holdings in the military sector [1] - An institution estimates that the insurance capital allocation scale will reach 400-500 billion yuan in 2023, with approximately 250 billion yuan flowing into A-shares, potentially providing financial support for the defense sector [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 14:31, the National Defense ETF (512670.SH) rose by 0.58%, and its related index, the Zhongzheng National Defense Index (399973.SZ), increased by 0.37% [1] - Among the major constituent stocks, AVIC Chengfei rose by 7.33%, Beifang Navigation increased by 5.91%, AVIC Shenyang rose by 1.48%, Inner Mongolia First Machinery rose by 4.72%, and AVIC Onboard increased by 2.55% [1] - Related products include the National Defense ETF (512670), with associated stocks such as AVIC Shenyang (600760), Aero Engine Corporation of China (600893), AVIC Optoelectronics (002179), and others [1]

Group 1 - Military stocks experienced significant afternoon gains, with North China Longyun rising over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Great Wall Industry and AVIC Chengfei increased by more than 5% [1] - Additional stocks that saw upward movement include Tianqin Equipment, Lijun Shares, Jieqiang Equipment, Inner Mongolia First Machinery, Aerospace Technology, Aero Engine Corporation of China, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [1]

2025 年关联交易额预计值较2024 年实际值（前11 个月）的增长，能看出公司对本年度合同签订、采购 交付等方面保持积极态度，也为公司业绩保持稳定增长奠定基础。 盈利预测：公司是航空防务装备领域的领跑者，具有较强核心竞争力，中长期向好。预计公司2025 年-2027 年的归母净利润分别为39.59、52.98、62.78 亿元，对应EPS 分别为1.44、1.92、2.28 元，对应 PE 分别为44.68、33.39、28.17 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 Q2 末合同负债大幅增长113%，Q2 业绩显著恢复2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入146.28 亿元 （-32.35%），归母净利润11.36 亿元（-29.78%），扣非归母净利润10.74 亿元（-32.38%）。单季度来 看，上半年公司业绩呈现Q1 承压、Q2 修复的特征：25Q1，受产业链波动、订单执行节奏放缓等影 响，公司实现营收58.34 亿元（-38.55%），归母净利润4.31 亿元（-39.87%）；25Q2，随着合同负债修 复（Q1 末合同负债为54.01 亿元，较年初大增58%；Q2 末为75.32 亿元，较年初大增113 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 中航沈飞（600760） 证券研究报告 Q2 末合同负债较年初大增 113%；重视军贸发展 事件：公司 8 月 25 日发布了 2025 年中报，上半年实现营收 146.3 亿元， YoY-32.4%；归母净利润 11.4 亿元，YoY-29.8%；扣非归母净利润 10.7 亿元， YoY-32.4%。公司收入同比下降主要是受产品配套交付进度及产品结构调 整影响。但从资产负债表观察，公司 25Q2 末合同负债已经出现积极变化 （25Q2 末合同负债为 75 亿元，较年初大增 113%），或说明下游需求逐步 向好。我们认为，公司作为国内歼击机龙头之一，中长期或有望充分受益 于国防装备的跨越式发展，以及海外军贸市场的积极开拓。 ⚫ Q2 业绩短期承压；吉航公司收入同比大增 108% 单季度看，公司 2Q24 实现营收 87.9 亿元，YoY-27.5%；归母净利润 7.1 亿 元，YoY-21.8%。2025 年上半年综合毛利率为 12.3%，同比减少 0.27pct； 净利率为 7.7%，同比增加 0.27pct，或展现了公司较强的精益管理能力。子 公司方面，2025 上半年：1）沈飞 ...

产能建设加速，匹配新型号放量需求。公司成功完成 40 亿元的定向增 发，募集资金将用于推动航空武器装备的跨越式发展和规模化交付。截 至 2025H1 末，公司在建工程达 22.92 亿元，较年初增长 31.5%，主要 投向新厂区建设。产能的提前布局是应对未来新型号大批量生产的必要 准备，彰显公司对"十四五"末期及"十五五"期间装备放量的信心。 新一代主力机型拓展应用场景。以歼 35 为代表的新一代战机，不仅满 足空军的换代需求，其舰载版本更是我国海军走向深蓝的关键装备。多 军种的需求将共同驱动新机型进入产能快速爬坡阶段，打开公司内需市 场的天花板。此外，公司积极开拓高端航空装备军贸市场，在 2025 年 上半年参加巴黎航展等国际活动，展示以歼-35A 为代表的先进机型， 进军国际市场。 投资建议：我们预计公司 25-27 年营收为 488.09/575.55/650.12 亿元， 归母净利润为 39.22/47.17/53.79 亿元，对应 EPS 为 1.38/1.66/1.90 元， 对应 PE 为 44.51/37.00/32.45X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：需求下滑，军贸不及预期，业绩与估值判断 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the future [1] - Following the removal announcement, market reactions included rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar index declined, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments to macroeconomic conditions [2] Industry Insights - New Lai Ying Material (300260) reported improved Q2 performance, benefiting from growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors, with a focus on domestic substitution and an optimized customer structure [5][6] - Li Yuan Heng (688499) achieved profitability with a robust order backlog in solid-state battery equipment, indicating a strong operational cash flow and successful delivery to major clients [7] - Jin Zai Food (003000) is experiencing a Q2 adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a mismatch between internal expansion strategies and external market conditions [8][9] - Anpei Long (301413) reported steady growth in its temperature and pressure sensor business while investing in humanoid robotics, adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [10] - Xinde New Materials (301349) is seeing significant growth in fast-charging products, with profit forecasts adjusted upwards due to improved margins [11] - The report on China National Railway (601766) indicates strong growth in H1 2025, driven by recovery in railway fixed asset investments [18] - The report on China Duty Free Group (601888) highlights a narrowing revenue decline in Q2 2025, with a focus on expanding city store operations to boost sales [31] - Yun Aluminum (000807) reported a 17.98% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with a focus on maintaining high profit margins amid fluctuating aluminum prices [32][33]

Market Overview - The market experienced increased volatility on August 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3800.35 points and the ChiNext Index retreating nearly 3% [1] - Trading volume surged to 3.2 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest volume in history [1] Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sector saw a significant drop in the afternoon, with the high-profile Defense and Military ETF (512810) falling by 1.87% and experiencing a volatility of 2.67% [1] - Notably, the trading volume for the ETF surged to 194 million yuan, the highest in five months, with 12 consecutive trading days achieving over 100 million yuan in transactions [1] - The ETF covers 79 military stocks, with only 6 stocks rising, while major stocks like China Great Wall and Inner Mongolia First Machinery fell over 4% [3] Earnings and Performance - The defense and military sector's earnings have shown significant recovery, with 39 out of 50 ETF component stocks reporting profits in the first half of 2025, and half of them showing positive net profit growth [5] - Noteworthy is the 30% year-on-year growth in net profit for 11 stocks, with Aerospace Science and Technology leading with a staggering increase of over 21 times [5] Upcoming Events and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent market adjustments are influenced by external risks, particularly long-term bond risks, and the recent significant gains in the A-share market [4] - The upcoming military parade is expected to catalyze interest in the defense sector, with expectations of new equipment being showcased [6] - Historical data indicates that the defense and military sector typically experiences excess returns before major military parades, with past events showing significant index gains [6]

在本轮牛市行情中，军工龙头股表现备受关注，而其上半年经营成绩单也已陆续披露。 值得关注的是，公司期末专项应付款余额达317.04亿元。这些资金专项用于国防科研和国拨基建技改项 目，为核心业务的发展提供了稳定的资金保障。这种特殊的资金安排体现了航空防务装备行业的特殊 性，也为公司的长期技术积累提供了持续动力。 与此同时，公司正在积极布局低空经济新赛道。作为国家战略性新兴产业，低空经济正在成为新质生产 力的典型代表。中航沈飞表示，将以民用无人机研制和军民通用技术转化为突破口，探索应用场景构建 和运营体系保障等发展模式，积极响应国家战略。40亿定增加快核心能力建设 值得一提的是，中航沈飞近期完成40亿元定向增发，这笔关键资金的落地正在推动公司核心能力建设步 入新阶段。 8月26日，中航沈飞（600760）(600760.SH)披露2025年半年报。该公司上半年实现营收146.28亿元，归 母净利润11.36亿元。 尽管受产品交付节奏与行业周期性波动影响，业绩呈现短期调整，但公司经营性现金流净额同比仍实现 了大幅跃升。 中航沈飞半年报呈现出"营收承压、现金流改善、战略投入加码"三重特征，折射出军工龙头在行业周期 中的 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中航沈飞（600760.SH） [Table_Title] 合同负债增长，景气持续上行 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025H1 受产品配套交付进度及产品结构调整影响，公司收入、利润出现同比下滑。2025Q2 受 产品结构影响毛利率同环比均有所下滑，但依托政府补助以及税费返还，单季度净利率同环比 有所增长。公司合同负债余额较期初持续增长表征下游需求逐步落地，在建工程较期初有所增 长表明产能持续落地以承接后续景气上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王贺嘉 王清 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490524050001 SFC：BUX462 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 事件评论 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中航沈飞（600760.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 合同负债增长，景气持续上行 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2025H1 实现营业收入 146.28 亿元，同比减少 32.35%，实现归母净利润 11.36 亿元，同 比减少 29 ...