Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that orders are being transmitted in an orderly manner, signaling an impending performance inflection point for the industry [3]. - It selects 48 key companies across the military industrial chain, with a total market capitalization of 1,320.52 billion, accounting for approximately 48.4% of the total market capitalization of the Shenwan Defense and Military Industry Index [3]. - The expected total performance for these 48 companies in Q2 2025 is approximately 6.768 billion (down 11.2% year-on-year), and for H1 2025, it is expected to be around 11.336 billion (down 17.7% year-on-year) [3]. - The report notes performance differentiation across various segments due to customer structure and revenue recognition timing [3]. - The military industry is entering a significant upward cycle driven by domestic demand, particularly due to military modernization efforts [3]. - The report anticipates a strong resonance between supply and demand in military trade, driven by global geopolitical changes and increased recognition of Chinese military products [3]. - The growth cycle in the military sector is expected to enhance industry valuations, with a focus on technological equity and recognition of military advancements [3]. - The report suggests increasing attention to the military sector, particularly in areas such as next-generation equipment and precision-guided weapons, which are expected to enter a growth phase in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report provides performance forecasts for key companies, indicating significant variances in growth rates across different segments [4][5]. - For example, Torch Electronics and Hongyuan Electronics are expected to see growth rates of 61% and 49% respectively in H1 2025, while companies like Zhihua Technology and Aerospace Electric are projected to decline by 69% and 78% respectively [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the core driver of domestic demand in the military sector is military construction, with a transition towards a new cycle characterized by "intelligent and unmanned" capabilities [3]. - It also notes that the military trade landscape is evolving, with increased global demand and recognition of Chinese military capabilities following recent geopolitical events [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment targets within the military sector, including high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat combinations [3]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, and others involved in advanced materials and electronic components [3].

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has shown strong performance, with significant inflows and a notable procurement agreement in the eVTOL sector, indicating a bullish outlook for the aerospace industry [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 17, 2025, the aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) increased by 3.19%, with a trading volume of 83.39 million yuan and a turnover rate of 20.71% [2]. - The latest scale of the aerospace ETF Tianhong reached 395 million yuan, with a total of 360 million shares, both hitting record highs since inception [2]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 24.46 million yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - On July 16, a procurement agreement worth 1 billion USD was signed between UAE's Autocraft and China's Shide Technology for 350 units of E20eVTOL, marking the largest single eVTOL order in China to date [2]. - The agreement is expected to deliver the first batch of orders after obtaining the airworthiness certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China [2]. Group 3: Military Trade Insights - China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC) has emphasized military trade as a core business, establishing a dedicated committee to streamline decision-making processes [3]. - Analysts predict that geopolitical conflicts will enhance the valuation of Chinese military enterprises, with a focus on military trade and new defense industry opportunities [3]. - The military industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance in Q2 2025, with an optimistic outlook for industry prosperity [3]. Group 4: ETF Investment Strategy - The aerospace ETF Tianhong closely tracks the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, focusing on key sectors such as fighter jets and satellite industries [4]. - The ETF's constituent companies are well-positioned to benefit from emerging themes like commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [4]. Group 5: Index Highlights - The index has a high "military content," with 96.24% of its constituents belonging to the defense and military industry, surpassing other military indices [5]. - It also leads in "drone content," featuring companies deeply involved in drone technology, making it the highest in the market [6]. - The index covers the aerospace industry chain comprehensively, with over 73% weight in aviation and aerospace equipment [7]. - The index constituents exhibit stronger technological attributes, aligning with the trend of high-end development in the military and aerospace sectors, achieving a return of 31.68% over the past year [8]. - The forecasted revenue growth for the index in 2025 is projected at 42.73%, exceeding traditional military indices [9].

Group 1 - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the aerospace and defense sector showing significant strength, as evidenced by the CN5082 index increasing by 3.12% and 48 out of 50 constituent stocks rising [1] - The Aerospace and Defense ETF (159227) saw a 3.04% increase, with a trading volume reaching 158 million yuan, marking a new high since its listing [1] - The ETF has experienced net inflows for 15 consecutive trading days, with a current scale of 603 million yuan, leading its category [1] Group 2 - The recent deployment of "robot dogs" and ground combat robots by the PLA's Western Theater Command signifies a new phase in the military's transition towards unmanned ground forces [1] - The CN5082 index has a higher concentration in aerospace equipment and space equipment, with aerospace equipment accounting for 66.5%, compared to 40% in the CSI Military Industry Index and 52% in the CSI Defense Index [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Securities suggests that the military industry is likely to benefit from both fundamental improvements and valuation increases, recommending continued focus on the sector [2]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry ETF (512810) experienced a surge of over 2%, with a trading volume of 88.1 million yuan [1] - According to Guoxin Securities, the stable growth of military expenditure in China provides a solid foundation for the stable development of the defense and military industry, with industry scale and profits expected to continue rising [3] - China's global competitiveness in shipbuilding, aerospace, and satellite navigation has been steadily improving, making the defense and military industry a crucial area for breakthroughs in new productive forces, indicating a broad industry outlook [3] Group 2 - The importance of national defense security has increased amid frequent global conflicts and geopolitical tensions, which is expected to support industry valuations [3] - The ETF (512810) covers various popular themes, including commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft, making it an efficient investment tool for the defense and military sector [3] - On July 17, the defense and military sector saw a rapid rise, with stocks like Construction Industrial, Yingliu Shares, and AVIC Shenfei hitting the daily limit, and AVIC Shenfei's stock price reaching a historical high [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound on July 15, with the communication industry performing strongly while the defense and military sector saw a pullback, indicating a trend of buying on dips [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) has recorded a net inflow of funds for 13 consecutive days, totaling 312 million yuan, reflecting significant growth in scale [1] - The military industry is heavily influenced by five-year plans, which are key drivers for market expectations and industry operations, with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to clarify development guidance for the next three to five years [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) closely tracks the National Securities Aerospace Index, focusing on core areas of military and aerospace, with a high concentration of 98.2% in the first-level military industry [2] - The index's component stocks have a weight of 66.5% in aerospace equipment, significantly surpassing other military and defense indices, making it the largest product tracking the National Securities Aerospace Index [2]

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Aerospace Technology Index, experienced a decline of 0.6%, closing at 2448.02 points with a trading volume of 12.644 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 6.52%, by 10.78% over the last three months, and by 6.04% year-to-date [1] - The index comprises 40 representative listed companies from state-owned enterprises involved in aerospace equipment, materials, information, and security, reflecting the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in the aerospace technology sector [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: Aero Engine Corporation (9.22%), AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry (8.54%), AVIC Optoelectronics (7.66%), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (5.82%), Hongdu Aviation (4.65%), Northern Navigation (4.31%), AVIC Aircraft (3.97%), AVIC High-Tech (3.96%), Aerospace Electronics (3.90%), and Zhongke Star Map (3.84%) [1] - The market segment distribution of the index holdings shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 63.84%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 35.51%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.65% [1] - In terms of industry composition, the index holdings are primarily in the industrial sector (82.73%), followed by materials (5.90%), information technology (5.08%), communication services (4.65%), and consumer discretionary (1.65%) [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample changes, and generally remain fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes mergers, acquisitions, or splits [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company has experienced a decline in stock price over five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -3.98% [1] - The company is primarily engaged in the manufacturing of aviation products and is located in Shenyang, a significant national equipment manufacturing hub [1] - Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is one of the top ten shareholders of AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, having reduced its holdings in the second quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The performance of the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF shows a year-to-date return of 3.57%, ranking 2040 out of 3426 in its category [2] - The fund's performance over various periods includes a weekly increase of 1.08%, a monthly increase of 4.04%, and a quarterly increase of 8.46% [2] - The average performance of similar funds for the year is 7.01%, indicating that the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is underperforming compared to its peers [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has extensive experience in fund management, having worked in various roles since 2004 [3][4] - Liu Jun has managed multiple funds over his career, with a total fund size under management of 423.29 billion yuan and a return of 144.95% during his tenure [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the China Defense Index, which has shown significant growth over the past month, three months, and year-to-date, indicating a positive trend in the defense sector [1][2] - The China Defense Index has increased by 7.16% in the last month, 10.26% in the last three months, and 10.50% year-to-date, with a current value of 1589.12 points and a trading volume of 24.275 billion yuan [1] - The index comprises listed companies under the ten major military industrial groups and those providing weaponry and equipment to the armed forces, reflecting the overall performance of defense industry stocks [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Defense Index include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (7.9%), AVIC Optoelectronics (6.1%), Aero Engine Corporation of China (6.0%), and others, indicating a concentration in specific companies [1] - The market distribution of the index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 56.19% and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 43.81%, highlighting the geographical distribution of investments [2] - The industry composition of the index indicates that 75.06% is in the industrial sector, 12.42% in materials, 7.07% in information technology, and 5.45% in communication services, reflecting the focus on industrial applications [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index (CN5082.CNI) **Model Construction Idea**: The index is designed to reflect the market performance of aerospace and aviation industry companies listed on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges [41][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: Select A-shares and red-chip enterprises' depositary receipts that meet the following conditions: - Non-ST/*ST securities - Listed for over 1 year (for STAR Market and Beijing Stock Exchange securities) or over 6 months (for other securities) - No major violations or financial reporting issues in the past year - No abnormal price fluctuations during the observation period - Belong to the aerospace and aviation industry under Guozheng's tertiary industry classification [43] 2. **Candidate Pool**: - Calculate the average daily free-float market capitalization and average daily trading volume over the past six months for eligible securities - Exclude the bottom 10% of securities ranked by trading volume if the pool exceeds 10 securities [43] 3. **Sample Selection**: - If the candidate pool contains ≤30 securities, all are included - If the pool contains 30<N≤50 securities, select securities covering 85% of free-float market capitalization, rounded to the nearest multiple of 10 [43] - If the pool contains >50 securities, select securities covering 85% of free-float market capitalization, rounded to the nearest multiple of 10, capped at 50 securities [43] 4. **Weighting**: Free-float market capitalization weighting [43] 5. **Adjustment**: Regular adjustments occur semi-annually, with temporary adjustments for special cases like delisting or corporate actions [44] **Model Evaluation**: The index is highly focused on the aerospace and aviation sector, with a strong representation of small-cap stocks and high exposure to the defense industry [44][47] Model Backtesting Results - **Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index**: - **Annualized Return**: 6.26% (past five years) [61][62] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.33 (past five years) [61][62] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -55.93% (past five years) [61][62] - **Annualized Volatility**: 34.13% (past five years) [61][62] - **Recent Performance**: 33.78% return in the past year, outperforming other broad-based indices and military-themed indices [64][66] - **Bull Market Elasticity**: Demonstrated strong performance during bull market periods, with gains of 40.56%, 50.90%, and 38.36% in specific intervals [65] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: "Military Exposure" **Factor Construction Idea**: Focus on stocks with high exposure to the defense industry, particularly aerospace and aviation [47][55] **Factor Construction Process**: - Select stocks with significant involvement in defense-related activities, such as aircraft manufacturing, satellite technology, and unmanned systems [47][55] - Weight stocks based on their free-float market capitalization [43][55] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor achieves high representation of military-related stocks, with 97% of the index's components belonging to the defense industry [47][55] - **Factor Name**: "Aerospace Exposure" **Factor Construction Idea**: Emphasize stocks within the aerospace and aviation sub-sector [47][60] **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify stocks classified under the aerospace and aviation sub-sector [47][60] - Weight stocks based on their free-float market capitalization [43][60] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a high concentration in aerospace stocks, with 51% of the index's weight allocated to this sub-sector [47][60] Factor Backtesting Results - **Military Exposure Factor**: - **Representation**: 97% of index components belong to the defense industry [47][55] - **Aerospace Exposure Factor**: - **Representation**: 51% of index weight allocated to aerospace stocks [47][60] - **Unmanned Systems Factor**: - **Representation**: Over 12% of index weight allocated to stocks involved in unmanned systems, such as drones [60]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for State-owned Enterprises in Aerospace Technology has shown a mixed performance in the A-share market, with a recent decline but positive growth over the past month, three months, and year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for State-owned Enterprises in Aerospace Technology closed at 2453.88 points, down 0.64% with a trading volume of 17.406 billion [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 7.20%, by 18.44% over the last three months, and by 6.34% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 40 representative listed companies from state-owned enterprises involved in aerospace technology, including sectors such as aerospace equipment, materials, information, and security [1] - The index was established on December 28, 2018, with a base value of 1000.0 points [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: - Aero Engine Corporation (9.24%) - AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry (8.48%) - AVIC Optoelectronics (7.72%) - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (5.98%) - Hongdu Aviation (4.66%) - Northern Navigation (4.23%) - AVIC Aircraft (3.95%) - AVIC High-tech (3.94%) - Aerospace Electronics (3.91%) - Zhongke Star Map (3.86%) [1] Group 4: Market Distribution - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 63.93%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 35.46%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange for 0.60% [1] Group 5: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index holdings is as follows: - Industrial sector: 82.67% - Materials sector: 5.83% - Information technology: 5.14% - Communication services: 4.70% - Consumer discretionary: 1.67% [2] Group 6: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]