Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to external factors affecting contract signing and supply progress, while maintaining an improved gross margin [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.834 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.55% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 431 million, down 39.87% year-on-year [1] - Deducted non-recurring net profit was 421 million, a decline of 41.33% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 12.65%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit margin was 7.38%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] Expense Analysis - The operating expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 2.99%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Sales expense ratio was 0.07%, up 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Management expense ratio was 3.12%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year [1] - R&D expense ratio was 0.18%, down 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D expenses at 11 million, a significant decrease of 89.98% [1] - Financial expense ratio was -0.38%, compared to -0.49% in the same period last year, mainly due to reduced interest income [1] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Contract liabilities showed recovery, increasing by 53.09% to 5.4 billion compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to increased advance payments [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 7.728 billion year-on-year, primarily due to higher cash received from sales of goods and services [2] Incentive Plan - The company announced a second phase of its stock incentive plan, granting 7.8305 million shares to 223 employees at a price of 32.08 per share [3] - The unlocking conditions include a compound annual growth rate of non-recurring net profit of no less than 15% from 2023 to 2025, and specific return on equity and EVA targets [3] - The estimated expense for the initial stock grant is 169.0605 million [3] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.741 billion, 4.273 billion, and 4.923 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 28, and 24 [3]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The military industry is showing a downward trend, but the decline is narrowing, indicating signs of bottoming out. The revenue realization in the components segment is catalyzing the industry, with expectations for improved conditions in Q2 [2][4][10]. - The Longjiang Military Group categorizes over a hundred companies into main tracks (military aircraft engines, missiles) and new directions (new equipment, military trade, military-to-civilian transitions). The upstream components are recovering first, with improvements in cash flow and inventory for main manufacturers [2][5][6]. Key Insights - Q2 is expected to see a focus on emerging segments such as rocket forces, navy, army, and information support troops, with significant development potential following management system optimizations [2][8]. - The military industry is anticipated to accelerate recovery in 2025, driven by mobilization orders and systemic improvements, with missiles becoming a preferred investment choice [2][10]. - Military trade is benefiting from optimized national military trade management and global political changes, becoming a crucial aspect of the defense technology industry's international expansion [2][12][13]. Company-Specific Highlights AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (沈飞) - Selected as the "gold stock" for May due to low holdings, minimal competition, low valuation, and potential. The lack of disclosed 2025 operational targets enhances its safety margin and presents a contrarian investment opportunity [2][3][15][16]. - The company is currently valued at a static P/E ratio of around 30 times, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range. Expectations for increased production tasks in 2025 are based on improved cash flow and contract signing [17][20]. - Future growth is supported by new aircraft models entering production phases, with a projected ROE close to 20% and significant asset scarcity [18][21]. Tunan Co., Ltd. (图南股份) - Tunan has shown improvement in Q1 2025 after a significant decline in Q4 2024. The company is expected to achieve approximately 330 million yuan in revenue in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 35% to 40% over the next two years [2][29]. - The company specializes in high-temperature alloy materials, with a strong focus on casting and deformation alloys, and is gradually extending its business into downstream products [23][26]. - Tunan's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with projections indicating a doubling of revenue and profit over the next three years [28][29][30]. Additional Important Points - The military industry is experiencing a structural shift with a focus on unmanned systems and advanced technologies, which will likely reshape operational dynamics and market opportunities [21][22]. - The management of military companies is increasingly focused on optimizing production and expanding capacity to meet future demands, particularly in the context of national defense strategies [20][14]. - The competitive landscape in the military sector remains relatively stable due to strong regulatory frameworks, which may provide a clearer path for companies to capitalize on emerging opportunities [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [3] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase due to multiple factors, but signs of improvement were observed in Q1 2025, particularly in upstream components and new directions [11][13] - Profitability has slightly fluctuated due to various influences, with ROE constrained by asset efficiency and net profit margin needing improvement [53][56] - Traditional main tracks show clear signs of recovery, while new directions are in the early stages of industrialization but exhibit initial growth potential [90][91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The military industry faced a decline in revenue and profit growth in 2024, but Q1 2025 showed a narrowing of profit decline to -24.6% [19][20] - The main track's revenue growth was affected by contract signing and delivery schedules, with a notable profit drop in Q4 2024, followed by a recovery in Q1 2025 [20][21] Main Track Performance - Upstream components are showing early signs of recovery, with revenue growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream segments varying significantly [25][29] - Downstream manufacturers experienced short-term performance pressure due to contract signing delays, but some companies like Hongdu Aviation showed strong growth [29][30] Profitability Analysis - The overall profitability of the military sector slightly decreased in 2024, with a marginal improvement in Q1 2025 [56][58] - The main track's profitability was impacted by price adjustments and demand fluctuations, with a slight recovery noted in Q1 2025 [58][61] New Directions - New directions in the industry, such as military trade and new equipment, are showing upward trends in Q1 2025, indicating potential for growth [101][110] - Specific segments like infrared and ammunition within new equipment are experiencing significant revenue growth, reflecting high market demand [104][110] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with enhanced product capabilities, increased penetration rates, and higher average transaction values as the industry approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [117][118] - Key investment opportunities are identified in companies like Aerospace Electric and Feiliwa, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming military spending and technological advancements [117][118]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the military industry [2] Core Insights - The military sector is experiencing a bottoming out and marginal recovery, with new directions showing superior performance [9][15] - The J-35 supply chain is entering a phase of prosperity, with increased production capacity supporting the launch of new models [52][73] - The report highlights the importance of contract liabilities and inventory stability as indicators of demand recovery in the industry [27][95] Summary by Sections Military Sector Overview - The military sector's revenue growth from 2021 to Q1 2025 shows a decline, with a notable drop in net profit in 2024, but a recovery trend is observed in Q1 2025 [18][19] - The main track of the military sector includes traditional aircraft, engines, and missiles, with revenue growth rates declining but showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [19][23] J-35 Supply Chain - The J-35, China's second stealth fighter, is expected to have a strong export potential due to its competitive pricing and fully domestic production [55][61] - The company plans to invest 11 billion yuan in local relocation and production capacity expansion to support new model production [73][81] New Directions in the Industry - New directions such as military trade and new equipment are showing upward trends in revenue and profit growth, indicating a recovery in demand [38][48] - Companies like Tunan Co. are focusing on advanced metal materials and innovative business models to capture growth opportunities in the defense sector [99][102] Financial Performance - The report indicates that major manufacturers like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation have seen significant increases in contract liabilities, suggesting a positive outlook for future demand [27][95] - The financial metrics for the military sector show a narrowing of profit declines in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining stable inventory levels [19][28]

Market Analysis - Historical reference to the market performance post-2018 tariffs indicates that industries focused on self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, and stable dividends performed well[4] - Future market risk appetite is expected to rise, contingent on policy changes, including potential liquidity releases from the Federal Reserve due to U.S. bond and stock market liquidity issues[4] Recommended Industries - Key industries recommended for investment include metals, chemicals, electricity, military, non-banking financials, banking, retail, social services, automotive, and computing[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, and stable dividends amid macroeconomic disturbances[4] Stock Recommendations - **Metals**: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (EPS forecast: 1.92 in 2025, PE: 13.8) shows strong performance potential[22] - **Chemicals**: Yara International ASA (EPS forecast: 2.42 in 2025, PE: 12.2) is positioned for significant growth due to its overseas potassium mining operations[22] - **Electricity**: Zhongmin Energy (EPS forecast: 0.36 in 2025, PE: 15.7) benefits from favorable wind resources in Fujian Province[22] - **Military**: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (EPS forecast: 1.44 in 2025, PE: 29.7) is expected to see steady growth driven by new aircraft models[22] - **Non-Banking Financials**: New China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (EPS forecast: 7.36 in 2025, PE: 6.5) has a strong leverage position in the market[22] - **Banking**: Jiangsu Bank (EPS forecast: 1.74 in 2025, PE: 6.0) offers high dividend yield and stable growth prospects[22] - **Retail**: Yiwu Small Commodity City (EPS forecast: 0.75 in 2025, PE: 20.7) is set to benefit from international trade reforms[22] - **Social Services**: Core International (EPS forecast: 1.46 in 2025, PE: 22.5) is leveraging AI for enhanced operational efficiency[22] - **Automotive**: Xiaomi Group (EPS forecast: 1.37 in 2025, PE: 34.7) is expected to see significant sales growth in electric vehicles[22] - **Computing**: Cambricon Technologies (EPS forecast: 2.74 in 2025, PE: 257.5) is positioned to benefit from the growing AI chip market[22]

Core Viewpoint - The China Aircraft Strength Research Institute, established 60 years ago, has significantly contributed to the development of key national aircraft such as the J-20, Y-20, C919, and AG600, supporting the innovation and advancement of aviation weaponry [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Development - The Strength Research Institute, created in 1965, is the only center in China for aircraft strength research, verification, and certification, responsible for ground strength validation tests for new and modified aircraft [2]. - The completion of the H-6 aircraft destruction test in 1968 marked China's capability to conduct large aircraft strength verification, ushering in a new era for the country's aviation strength sector [2]. - Over the past 60 years, the institute has developed a comprehensive testing capability system covering various types of military and civilian aircraft [2]. Group 2: Innovations and Achievements - The institute has focused on meeting equipment development needs and has achieved several "firsts" in both domestic and international contexts, including the establishment of a large-scale climate environment laboratory for weapon systems [3]. - The climate environment laboratory is the largest and most complex of its kind globally, enabling the simulation of various environmental factors, thus enhancing the efficiency of equipment development [3]. - The laboratory has been instrumental in supporting the development of both military and civilian aircraft, including accelerating the airworthiness certification process for domestic large passenger aircraft [4]. Group 3: Specific Projects - The AG600 amphibious aircraft, the largest of its kind globally, successfully passed rigorous testing and verification, with the Strength Research Institute playing a crucial role throughout its development cycle [5]. - The C919 aircraft project has seen significant contributions from the institute, including overcoming technical challenges and conducting high-altitude tests in its climate environment laboratory [6]. - The institute pioneered the indoor testing of engine performance under snow conditions, marking a significant advancement in aircraft testing methodologies [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.834 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 38.55%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million yuan, down 39.87% year-on-year [5][6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to external factors such as contract signing progress and supply chain issues, but ongoing fundraising projects are expected to enhance the company's capabilities in weaponry and equipment construction [6] - The company aims to complete its annual tasks in 2025, which is a critical year in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 3.743 billion yuan, 4.323 billion yuan, and 5.051 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 15.5%, and 16.8% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 117.6 billion yuan, with a closing price of 42.66 yuan [2] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 42.837 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, followed by a recovery with expected growth of 10.0% in 2025 [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.41, 27.19, and 23.27 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement over the forecast period [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and performance have declined due to external factors such as contract signing progress and supply chain issues, but overall profitability remains high. The company's operational quality has significantly improved year-on-year, with sufficient inventory to support short-term production [2][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 431 million yuan, down 39.87% year-on-year. Overall performance is in line with expectations [6][11] - The company's contract liabilities and advance payments increased compared to the beginning of the period, indicating ongoing capacity expansion to meet the demand for new models [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin improved to 12.65%, with a net profit margin of 7.38%. The cash flow from operating activities increased by 77.28 million yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant improvement in overall operational quality [11] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 53% to 5.4 billion yuan, and advance payments rose by 58% to 3.275 billion yuan, reflecting clearer downstream demand and ongoing capacity expansion [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.956 billion yuan, 4.732 billion yuan, and 5.577 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 20%, and 18%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 30, 25, and 21 times [11]

Group 1 - The "All-Space Unmanned System Industry Development Conference" was held in Fuzhou, Fujian Province, focusing on the safe and controllable development of unmanned technology [1][3] - The conference was co-hosted by the China Macroeconomic Society, China Aviation Industry Corporation, and Fujian Big Data Group, with multiple organizations involved in its execution [3] - The "All-Space Unmanned System Construction Engineering General Department" released the "2025 Work Points" document, outlining a work plan with phased goals and timelines based on principles such as standard leadership and industry aggregation [3][4] Group 2 - Fujian Big Data Group presented digital research results, proposing a standardized framework for unmanned systems covering "air, land, sea" to provide unified technical references for the industry [3][4] - China Aviation Industry Corporation introduced the "Tiandun" intelligent security system to address issues related to unauthorized drone flights, emphasizing comprehensive perception and efficient collaboration [4] - The conference featured expert speeches on the establishment and development opportunities of the all-space unmanned system, highlighting its potential to invigorate China's digital economy and industrial upgrade [4] Group 3 - A signing ceremony for industry cooperation took place, with multiple projects signed to promote innovation in Fujian, including a partnership between Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone Management Committee and Fujian Big Data Group [5][6] - The Fujian Meteorological Bureau signed an agreement with Fujian Big Data Group to explore the integration of meteorological data into the all-space unmanned system and low-altitude economic development [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the tariff event has accelerated the process of self - controllability in key areas. China is using "independent innovation" to drive "import substitution" and upgrading the high - end manufacturing supply chain [2]. - The semiconductor, computer, AI, and military industries are expected to benefit from the trend of self - controllability. The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, the computer industry is gradually recovering, the AI industry has more development opportunities, and the military industry shows strong resilience [7]. - Some convertible bonds, such as Xingfa Convertible Bond, Weil Convertible Bond, Daotong Convertible Bond, and Kelan Convertible Bond, are worthy of key attention [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Breakthrough and Establishment: Accelerated Implementation of Self - Controllability in Key Areas 1.1 Tariff Event Review - In early April 2025, the Sino - US tariff event escalated. The US continuously increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and China took counter - measures. The event objectively accelerated the process of domestic substitution [15]. 1.2 Semiconductor Industry - The self - autonomy process of the Chinese semiconductor industry has accelerated. China is considering strengthening cooperation with other regions to diversify the supply chain, but the key lies in independent innovation. The "integrated circuit origin rule" promotes the transfer of the industrial chain to the domestic market [19][20]. - In terms of semiconductor materials, China is trying to break through the import dependence on key materials such as CMP polishing materials, high - end photoresists, and electronic special gases. Some domestic companies have achieved certain results [21]. - For semiconductor chips, the tariff event has a short - term impact on imports, but it also accelerates domestic substitution. In the long run, it promotes the construction of a "de - Americanized" supply chain [24][25]. 1.3 Information Technology Application Innovation (ITAI) - The tariff event has a short - term impact on the ITAI industry but catalyzes long - term domestic substitution. The ITAI industry is upgrading from "usable" to "good - to - use" [26]. - Huawei's HarmonyOS has achieved breakthroughs in technology and ecological construction. It faces challenges in application and developer ecosystems but has the potential to form a tripartite situation with Android and iOS [28][30]. - The tariff event accelerates the R & D and iteration of domestic industrial software, promoting its market penetration and competitiveness [32][35]. 1.4 Satellite Internet - The satellite Internet industry in China has transformed from policy - driven to technology and market - driven, with a complete industrial chain. It has achieved technological breakthroughs but also faces challenges such as security protection and standardization [36][39]. 1.5 Domestic Computing Power - The domestic computing power industry is in a critical turning point from following to leading in technology. It has achieved multi - dimensional breakthroughs in basic software and hardware, and the market is in a virtuous cycle of investment and application [42][43]. 1.6 National Defense and Military Industry - The national defense and military industry has a high degree of self - controllability in the supply chain, showing strong resilience in the tariff event. The military electronics and aerospace industries have achieved system - level development [45][46]. 2. The US Imposes Tariffs on China, and the Self - Controllable Sector May Become the Dominant Force 2.1 Semiconductor Industry - The global semiconductor industry is recovering, entering an upward cycle. AI development and automotive intelligence drive the industry. Some leading companies have achieved significant performance growth. Key convertible bonds to focus on are Weil Convertible Bond and Xingfa Convertible Bond [47]. 2.2 Military Industry - In 2024, the performance of military industry listed companies showed a more significant structural differentiation. Leading enterprises maintained growth, while small and medium - sized manufacturers faced challenges [50]. 2.3 Computer Industry - In 2024, the computer industry gradually recovered. Leading enterprises achieved performance growth through innovation and market expansion. Daotong Convertible Bond is worthy of attention [56]. 2.4 AI Industry - In 2024, the AI industry had more development opportunities. Leading enterprises achieved performance growth through innovation. The industry is expected to benefit from the expansion of application scenarios and policy support. Kelan Convertible Bond is worthy of attention [58]. 3. There Are Many Relevant Convertible Bonds, and Some Can Be Focused on 3.1 Xingfa Convertible Bond - Xingfa Group has transformed from a traditional chemical enterprise to a high - end chemical new material supplier. Its business is distributed at home and abroad, and its net profit has increased significantly [61]. 3.2 Weil Convertible Bond - Weil Semiconductor is a leading global semiconductor design enterprise. Its performance has grown significantly, and it is in a leading position in the industry [63][65]. 3.3 Daotong Convertible Bond - Daotong Technology is a leading global enterprise in automotive intelligent diagnosis. Its net profit has increased steadily, and its overseas business revenue accounts for a high proportion [67]. 3.4 Kelan Convertible Bond - Kelan Software is an important participant in the financial technology field. Its performance has grown steadily, and it continues to expand its business areas [70].