Summary of the Conference Call on the Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for both export and domestic demand to rebound. The excavator index is projected to turn positive year-on-year starting from Q1 2024, validating market expectations for a reversal in the sector [3][5][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Recovery**: The engineering machinery industry is expected to continue its recovery, with various product categories, including excavators, anticipated to stabilize and rise. Increased market share in both domestic and international markets will attract more investment [3][5]. - **Leading Companies**: Sany Heavy Industry is highlighted as a leading company that will show significant elasticity during the industry's recovery phase. The company recently issued H-shares, indicating confidence in future growth, and has a relatively low institutional holding ratio, making it an attractive investment option [3][9]. - **Hydraulic Components**: Hengli Hydraulic, a key supplier of hydraulic components, has a positive production plan indicating favorable future expectations. The company is gaining market share globally and has significant growth potential in its core components business, presenting opportunities for both valuation and profit enhancement [3][6]. - **Government Policies**: Recent government reports indicate positive policy directions, including increased investment in infrastructure and a recovering real estate market. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative and post-conflict reconstruction needs are expected to create new opportunities for Chinese companies [3][7]. - **Financial Support**: The government has announced a deficit rate of 4%, an increase in funding by 1.6 trillion yuan, and an additional 500 billion yuan in local government special bonds to support infrastructure and real estate development. This has led to a sustained recommendation for the engineering machinery sector [3][8]. - **Profit Growth**: Leading companies in the sector are expected to see net profit growth of 20%-30% in Q1, further driving interest in the engineering machinery sector [3][8]. - **Emerging Technologies**: Companies like Hengli Hydraulic are making significant advancements in humanoid robotics and related components, while Zoomlion and Anhui Heli are also making strides in intelligent logistics robotics, which are worth monitoring [3][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Valuation**: The engineering machinery sector is currently undervalued, with most leading companies trading at 13-14 times earnings, except for Sany Heavy Industry, which is at about 20 times. This presents an attractive investment opportunity despite recent price increases [3][12]. - **Growth Drivers**: Future growth in the engineering machinery sector will be driven by increased domestic and international infrastructure demand, the initiation of equipment replacement cycles, and positive government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [3][13]. - **Spring Market Outlook**: The spring market for 2025 is expected to be promising, with optimistic sales forecasts for excavators and other machinery based on production plans from leading suppliers [3][14]. - **Replacement Cycle Impact**: The replacement cycle is influenced by government policies, natural equipment aging, and the demand for second-hand machinery, collectively driving market growth [3][15]. - **Intelligent Logistics**: The integration of intelligent logistics robots into the forklift industry is becoming increasingly significant, with several companies innovating in this space [3][16]. - **International Market Performance**: The performance in South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Belt and Road countries has been strong, while the European and American markets are expected to recover in 2025 [3][20]. - **Valuation Impact from Robotics**: The humanoid robotics sector is positively influencing the valuation of related companies, with significant developments in logistics and automation [3][21]. - **Profitability Enhancement**: Main manufacturers are focusing on cost reduction, increasing export ratios, and improving profitability, which is expected to yield strong performance even in a stable market [3][22]. - **Company-Specific Strategies**: Each leading company has unique strategies for growth, such as XCMG's focus on asset repair and overseas market share, and Sany's strong cash flow and product structure [3][23]. - **Future Prospects for Liugong**: Liugong is expected to continue its growth trajectory, particularly in excavators, benefiting from overseas demand and market integration efforts [3][24]. - **Hengli Hydraulic's Developments**: Hengli Hydraulic is gaining attention for its capabilities in humanoid robotics and hydraulic systems, indicating strong growth potential [3][25]. - **Emerging Companies in Forklift Sector**: New entrants like Zhongli Co., Ltd. are noted for their innovative contributions and high internationalization, suggesting significant future potential [3][26]. - **Overall Sector Outlook**: The engineering machinery sector is viewed optimistically for 2025, with various companies expected to perform well as the cycle recovers [3][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Heli (600761.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [3]. Core Views - Anhui Heli is a leading state-owned enterprise in the forklift industry, focusing on electric and international expansion, with smart logistics opening new growth opportunities. The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth, with a CAGR of 12.56% and 17.01% from 2018 to 2023, respectively [1][23]. - The global penetration rate of electric forklifts has increased from 27% in 2013 to 68% in 2023, indicating a strong trend towards electrification and lithium battery adoption in the industry. There remains significant room for growth in China's electric forklift market, particularly in high-value balance forklifts [1][47]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix in smart logistics, with revenue from this segment growing by 42% year-on-year in 2023, and AGV sales increasing by 127% [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anhui Heli has a long history dating back to 1958 and has maintained a strong position in the global forklift manufacturing industry, ranking among the top seven manufacturers since 2016 [14][15]. - The company operates in four main business segments: industrial vehicle assembly, components, aftermarket services, and smart logistics systems, with over 600 product types and 5000 models [17][18]. Industry Analysis - The forklift industry is benefiting from internationalization and the trend towards lithium battery adoption, with a positive outlook for growth driven by the recovery of manufacturing and logistics sectors [32][40]. - The global forklift market is projected to grow steadily, with sales increasing from 133.38 thousand units in 2017 to 213.74 thousand units in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 8.18% [38]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 17.47 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, with net profit reaching 1.28 billion yuan, up 40.89% [23][24]. - The overseas revenue has significantly increased, with a CAGR of 30.52% from 2018 to 2023, indicating a growing international presence [23]. Profitability and Valuation - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin of 21.53% and a net margin of 8.82% in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting historical highs [27]. - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 24.05 and 27.75 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anhui Heli [3] Core Views - Anhui Heli is a leading state-owned enterprise in the forklift industry, benefiting from trends in electrification and globalization, with smart logistics opening new growth opportunities [1][2] - The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth, with a CAGR of 12.56% and 17.01% respectively from 2018 to 2023 [23] - The global penetration rate of electric forklifts has increased significantly, from 27% in 2013 to 68% in 2023, indicating a strong trend towards electrification [1][47] Company Overview - Anhui Heli has a long history, established in 1958, and has maintained a strong position in the global forklift manufacturing industry [14][15] - The company operates in four main business segments: industrial vehicle assembly, components, aftermarket services, and smart logistics systems, with a comprehensive product range [17][19] Industry Analysis - The forklift industry is experiencing upward trends due to internationalization and the shift towards lithium battery technology [32] - The global forklift market is growing steadily, with 2023 global and Chinese sales reaching 214,000 and 117,000 units respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 8.18% and 15.41% from 2017 to 2023 [38][39] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for Anhui Heli for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.422 billion, 1.648 billion, and 1.904 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13, 12, and 10 [3] - The reasonable valuation range for the company is set between 24.05 and 27.75 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [3] Market Trends - The report highlights the significant growth potential for Chinese forklift manufacturers in international markets, with a current global market share of approximately 29.61% [2] - The company has established a robust overseas sales network, with over 300 sales agents in more than 100 countries [2]

Summary of Anhui Heli Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Heli - **Industry**: Forklift and Automated Guided Vehicle (AGV) manufacturing Key Points Collaboration with Huawei - Anhui Heli's partnership with Huawei focuses on digital transformation, smart logistics, and AI talent development, initiated in 2019 [3] - The collaboration includes hardware infrastructure, software applications, talent training, overseas consulting, and quality control of smart logistics equipment [3] - A framework agreement has been signed, with specific projects being categorized and advanced [3] - Short-term impact on performance is minimal, but long-term digital transformation is expected to significantly enhance capabilities, particularly in large system scheduling and profit margins [4] AGV Business Development - In 2024, AGV business revenue is projected at 608 million yuan, a 30% increase, aided by the acquisition of Yufeng Intelligent [5] - The 2025 revenue target for AGV is 1 billion yuan, with a 50% growth forecast and a signed order amount expected to rise by 50% to 500 million yuan [5] - Long-term goal is to reach 5 billion yuan in AGV revenue by 2030, indicating strong confidence in market prospects [5] Market Performance and Challenges - In January 2025, overseas orders showed a 3.9% year-on-year increase, with revenue up 4.7%, but overall orders remained flat due to market pressures, particularly in North America, Europe, and Oceania [9] - Domestic market performance in January saw a 4% decline in sales (excluding three categories of vehicles) and a 15% drop in overall orders, primarily due to reduced working days during the Spring Festival [10] - Global market share is approximately 9.7%, with plans for a 15% growth in overseas revenue and sales by 2025 [11] Pricing and Inventory Strategies - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, Anhui Heli increased inventory of large standard models in the U.S. by about 3,000 units and raised sales prices by 5% [19] - Non-standard models are shipped from China with a 10% price increase, effectively offsetting tariff impacts [19] Aftermarket Revenue and Service Contracts - The company is implementing a dual contract system in overseas markets, where sales and service contracts are signed simultaneously, aiming for aftermarket revenue to match or exceed sales revenue [27] - In domestic markets, strategies to enhance aftermarket services include expanding the coverage of genuine parts and establishing regional service centers [28] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slow recovery in the domestic market in the first half of 2025, with a target of 10% revenue growth [12] - Internationally, a 12% growth in sales is expected, with specific challenges noted in the U.S. market [17] - Overall, the company remains optimistic about its international sales prospects, particularly in the lithium battery forklift segment [16] Currency and Risk Management - Currently, Anhui Heli has not engaged in hedging operations against currency risks, primarily due to concerns over potential U.S. dollar depreciation [31] - The majority of overseas receivables are in U.S. dollars (over 80%), with euros making up more than 90% of total receivables [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Heli is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Anhui Heli's collaboration with Huawei is expected to enhance its smart logistics business, potentially creating a second growth curve for the company [2][10] - The trend towards intelligent transformation in the logistics industry is anticipated to benefit traditional forklift manufacturers, including Anhui Heli, as automation solutions gain traction [3][10] - The forklift industry is expected to experience a bottoming out in demand in 2024, with potential recovery driven by domestic policy support and overseas demand revival [4][13] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,471 million RMB in 2023 to 22,260 million RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.76% [1][20] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,278 million RMB in 2023 to 1,808 million RMB in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 40.89% in 2023 [1][20] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.43 RMB in 2023 to 2.03 RMB in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1][20] Industry Trends - The logistics industry's shift towards automation is driven by rising labor costs and a shortage of workforce, with AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) penetration expected to increase [3][10] - The global forklift market has shown a CAGR of 8% from 2014 to 2023, with domestic demand growing at a rate of 15% compared to 5% for overseas markets [4][13] - The lithium battery adoption rate in forklifts is projected to have significant growth potential, with current rates at 19% in China and 13% overseas [4][14]

Meta 入局人形机器人，工程机械需求持续复苏 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 | | | ——机械行业周报 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) | 徐乔威(分析师) | 刘麒硕(研究助理) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976830 | 021-38676779 | 0755-23976666 | | | xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com | xuqiaowei023970@gtjas.com | liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | | 登记编号S0880522120001 | S0880521020003 | S0880123070153 | 机械行业《新时达发布定增预案，海尔集团或入 | 本报告导读： 上周（2025/2/10-2025/2/14）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+0.23%。关注人形机器人等 领域科技创新，工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli [1] Core Views - Anhui Heli's collaboration with Huawei is expected to enhance its smart logistics business, potentially creating a second growth curve for the company [2][3] - The trend towards intelligent transformation in the logistics industry is anticipated to benefit traditional forklift manufacturers like Anhui Heli, as the penetration of automated guided vehicles (AGVs) continues to rise [10] - The forklift industry is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased investment in manufacturing and logistics, alongside rising labor costs [4][13] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for Anhui Heli are as follows: - 2023: 17,471 million RMB - 2024: 18,195 million RMB - 2025: 20,058 million RMB - 2026: 22,260 million RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,278 million RMB - 2024: 1,399 million RMB - 2025: 1,598 million RMB - 2026: 1,808 million RMB - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024-2026 to 14.0 billion RMB, 16.0 billion RMB, and 18.1 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12, 11, and 10 [4][17][20]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call focuses on Anhui Heli, a leading company in the forklift industry in China, and the broader forklift and machinery industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Performance and Trends**: Anhui Heli has performed well in terms of both financial results and stock price due to trends in electrification and globalization over the past few years [1][2]. 2. **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand has been weak since Q2 2022 but is showing signs of recovery starting Q4 2024, driven by accelerated issuance of specialized agents and other policy support [2][3]. 3. **Sector Performance**: Sectors such as tools, machine tools, and engineering machinery have shown better-than-expected performance, with trucks also improving compared to the previous year [2]. 4. **External Demand**: External demand has a more significant impact on the company's performance, with overseas market profits expected to surpass domestic contributions starting next year [3][4]. 5. **Global Forklift Orders**: Global forklift orders have seen a compound annual decline of 36% from 2022 to 2024, but a rebound is anticipated starting in 2025, with major players like Toyota and Kion projecting a 5% growth in orders [4][5]. 6. **Market Recovery**: The North American market is expected to experience a slight recovery in 2025, while the European market may also see improvements as the impact of the Ukraine war diminishes and interest rates decrease [5]. 7. **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have historically suppressed the company's stock price, but recent developments indicate that tariffs may not be as high as previously expected, which could positively affect the company's valuation [7]. 8. **Valuation Context**: The forklift sector has traditionally been valued at 10-15 times earnings, which is considered reasonable given the industry's maturity and lower technological barriers [8][11]. 9. **Technological Evolution**: The transition to electric and smart forklifts is expected to enhance market potential and growth, moving beyond the current market size of approximately 500 billion CNY domestically and 2000 billion CNY globally [9][11]. 10. **Investment Recommendation**: The company is positioned at a critical juncture with both short-term fundamental changes and long-term industry trends, leading to a strong recommendation for Anhui Heli [12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The historical context of the forklift industry and its evolution alongside the automotive sector, particularly in relation to technological advancements and market dynamics [9][10]. - The potential for smart robotics to redefine the forklift industry, suggesting that traditional valuation metrics may no longer apply as the industry evolves [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer and is advancing into global markets, focusing on digital transformation and intelligent logistics through a partnership with Huawei [7] - The collaboration with Huawei aims to enhance technological capabilities in areas such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing, which will benefit the company's logistics equipment and smart logistics solutions [7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing trend of automation in the forklift industry, with a significant increase in sales of unmanned mobile robots [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,470.51 million yuan in 2023 to 22,888.21 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.72% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,278.13 million yuan in 2023 to 1,865.54 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 12.15% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.43 yuan in 2023 to 2.09 yuan in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a comprehensive strategy that includes globalization, electrification, intelligence, and automation, with plans for convertible bond projects to be gradually put into production [7] - The partnership with Huawei is expected to set a precedent for traditional manufacturing and technology integration, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in the logistics sector [7] - The company aims to become a technology leader in the industry by developing unmanned intelligent forklifts and providing comprehensive smart logistics solutions [7]

证券代码：600761 证券简称：安徽合力 公告编号：临 2025-007 安徽合力股份有限公司 关于使用部分暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理 2025 年 1 月 20 日，公司认购了光大银行 2025 年挂钩汇率对公结构性存款 定制第一期产品（编号：2025101****24），认购金 6,000 万元，具体内容详见 公司于 2025 年 1 月 22 日披露于上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）的《公 司关于使用部分暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理的进展公告》（临 2025-006）。 2 月 13 日，公司对上述结构性存款产品进行了到期赎回，收回本金人民币 6,000 万元，获得收益人民币 8.55 万元，本次赎回的结构性存款产品本金及其收益均 已归还至公司募集资金账户。具体情况如下： 单位：万元 | 受托方名称 | 产品 | 产品名称 | 本次赎 | 本次赎回 | 起息日 | 到期日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 类型 | | 回金额 | 收益金额 | | | | 中国光大银行股 份有限公司合肥 | 结构性 | 光大银行 2 ...