Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.79% on January 12, with *ST Rock leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of *ST Rock was 3.20, with a gain of 4.92% and a trading volume of 132,400 shares, amounting to 41.70 million yuan [1] - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 141.73, up 2.94%, with a trading volume of 48,000 shares and a transaction value of 675 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 119.29, increasing by 2.08%, with a trading volume of 129,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 403 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 29.32 million yuan [1] - Wuliangye had a main fund net inflow of 267 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 87.06 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao recorded a main fund net inflow of 85.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 34.07 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on January 7, with *ST Rock leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.06% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing prices and performance of key liquor stocks showed mixed results, with Guizhou Moutai at 1423.36 yuan (-0.33%), and Wuliangye at 107.52 yuan (-0.60%) [1][2]. - The total net outflow of main funds from the liquor sector was 244 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 437.07 thousand yuan [2]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Guizhou Moutai had a trading volume of 29,700 hands and a transaction value of 4.234 billion yuan, while Wuliangye had a trading volume of 123,100 hands and a transaction value of 1.326 billion yuan [1][2]. - The trading volume for the liquor sector was highlighted, with notable transactions including Luzhou Laojiao at 93,700 hands and a transaction value of 1.102 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Guizhou Moutai saw a main fund inflow of 76.40 million yuan, while *ST Rock experienced a main fund outflow of 4.17 million yuan [3]. - The fund flow analysis indicated that retail investors contributed positively to some stocks, such as Tianyoude Liquor, which had a retail net inflow of 121.59 thousand yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Shui Jing Fang has shown a modest increase of 4.21% year-to-date, with recent trading activity indicating a mixed performance in terms of trading volume and net capital flow [2][1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 7, Shui Jing Fang's stock price rose by 2.19% to 40.08 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.17 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.13%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 195.39 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 4.21%, with a 3.51% rise over the last five trading days and a 4.38% increase over the last 20 days, while it has decreased by 4.68% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shui Jing Fang reported a revenue of 2.348 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million CNY, down 71.02% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.378 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.28 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shui Jing Fang was 80,500, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period, with an average of 6,053 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 5.91% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the China Securities White Wine Index A (161725) holds 17.73 million shares, an increase of 1.6367 million shares from the previous period, while the Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 9.069 million shares, a decrease of 1.8537 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.39% on January 6, with Yanghe Co. leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up by 1.5% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up by 1.4% [1] - Yanghe Co. saw a closing price of 63.38, with a rise of 2.92% [1] Group 2: Liquor Sector Stock Performance - The following stocks in the liquor sector showed notable performance: - Yanghe Co.: 63.38, +2.92%, volume 49,300, turnover 306 million [1] - ST Yanshi: 2.81, +1.81%, volume 118,900, turnover 32.83 million [1] - Quan Huijiu: 20.92, +1.31%, volume 47,200, turnover 98.63 million [1] - Shede Liquor: 57.55, +1.25%, volume 71,900, turnover 411 million [1] - Shui Jing Fang: 39.22, +1.24%, volume 56,800, turnover 221 million [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu: 179.09, +1.19%, volume 51,900, turnover 923 million [1] - Jisi Xing: 56.32, +0.99%, volume 96,800, turnover 541 million [1] - Shunxin Agriculture: 14.85, +0.75%, volume 68,400, turnover 10.1 million [1] - Jinshiyuan: 35.28, +0.63%, volume 67,300, turnover 23.6 million [1] - Tianyoude Liquor: 8.80, +0.57%, volume 48,000, turnover 42.16 million [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 37.01 million from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 128 million [1] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Shanxi Fenjiu: main net inflow 80.70 million, retail net outflow 48.88 million [2] - Luzhou Laojiao: main net inflow 64.98 million, retail net outflow 11.30 million [2] - Yanghe Co.: main net inflow 19.22 million, retail net outflow 7.69 million [2] - Jinshiyuan: main net inflow 11.97 million, retail net outflow 6.72 million [2] - Shui Jing Fang: main net inflow 11.36 million, retail net outflow 6.97 million [2]

Industry Environment - The liquor industry is undergoing a channel transformation, with traditional inventory strategies failing and instant retail emerging as a new opportunity. Leading companies like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are exploring online channels and new models such as "live streaming + instant fulfillment" [3] - The scattered liquor market is expected to grow from 80 billion yuan in 2024 to over 100 billion yuan in 2025, driven by companies like Gujing Gongjiu and Kuozi Jiao, which are targeting young consumers with experiential and diverse product offerings [5] - The competition in the liquor industry is shifting towards "value deepening," with companies focusing on product reconstruction and cultural resonance to meet the demands of younger and female consumers [6] Market Trends - The trend of low-alcohol liquor is gaining traction, with major brands like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu launching new products to cater to younger consumers' preferences for lower alcohol content. The low-alcohol market is projected to reach 57 billion yuan by 2025 [7] - The white liquor market is experiencing a shift from "face consumption" to "substance consumption," with a focus on quality and experience rather than just brand prestige [9][14] - The scattered liquor market is becoming a new growth area, with brands leveraging community consumption and flexible pricing strategies to attract consumers [20][21] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing bottle opening rates to address high inventory levels and declining consumption. Some brands have reported significant increases in opening rates through targeted marketing strategies [15] - The concept of "user co-creation" is emerging as a key strategy for brands to engage consumers and enhance brand loyalty, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu exploring new ways to connect with their audience [16][17] - The wedding market is seeing a resurgence, with a 30% increase in wedding events in certain regions, although overall liquor consumption at these events is declining due to economic pressures [19] Brand Dynamics - Moutai is facing challenges with declining prices and inventory buildup, prompting the company to optimize its product structure and marketing strategies to attract younger consumers [12][14] - The introduction of new products and collaborations, such as the partnership between Water Well and actor Tony Leung, is aimed at enhancing brand image and connecting with consumers on an emotional level [26][34] - The rise of health-oriented products, particularly in the health liquor segment, is attracting younger female consumers, with brands like Jinjiu successfully tapping into this demographic [36] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on digital transformation and the integration of AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and consumer engagement [37] - The scattered liquor market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable and accessible options [20][21] - The industry is likely to see a continued emphasis on quality and value, as brands adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [22][29]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering an adjustment phase in 2025, facing challenges such as the "ban on alcohol," rising inventory pressure, and declining profits, yet opportunities for growth are emerging through innovation and market expansion [2][4]. Policy Impact - A strict "ban on alcohol" policy was introduced, prohibiting public officials from consuming alcohol during workdays and even at home gatherings, with severe penalties for violations [2][4]. - This policy aims to curb corruption and address public health concerns related to alcohol consumption [4]. Digital Transformation - Leading liquor companies are advancing their digital transformation from isolated upgrades to comprehensive collaborative development, with initiatives like the first "lighthouse factory" by Luzhou Laojiao and 5G-connected factories by Shede [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released guidelines for digital transformation in the liquor industry, with companies actively contributing to industry mapping [5]. ESG Practices - ESG efforts among listed liquor companies have shifted from compliance to value creation, with companies like Zhenjiu Li Du setting ambitious carbon neutrality goals and achieving high water recycling rates [7]. - Companies are integrating ESG principles into performance assessments and utilizing blockchain for product traceability [7]. Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing severe inventory issues, with major companies implementing supply control measures and channel reforms to reshape pricing structures [8][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, liquor exports reached $704 million, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing international market [8][10]. Young Consumer Trends - The younger generation is increasingly favoring low-alcohol and flavored beverages, with participation rates among Gen Z rising from 66% in 2023 to 73% in 2025 [12]. - Major companies are launching low-alcohol products to cater to this demographic, with Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao leading the way [12]. Personnel Changes - The liquor industry is undergoing significant personnel changes, with over 20 companies experiencing nearly 30 key position shifts, indicating a trend towards younger management [14][16]. - The new management is expected to focus on refined operations and innovation to navigate industry pressures [16]. Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, only two companies, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, reported positive net profit growth, while the average profit of 20 liquor companies fell by 39.2% [18]. - The average inventory turnover days for these companies surged to 1456.29 days, marking a significant increase from the previous year [18]. Health-Oriented Products - The health-oriented liquor market is gaining traction, with sales of functional products like Jinjian's red label liquor increasing by 50% in the first half of the year [20]. - However, the market faces challenges such as product homogeneity and compliance risks, with a projected market size exceeding 58 billion yuan [22]. Price Fluctuations - Moutai's price fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle in December 2025, raising concerns about future price trends [22]. - Following a price drop, Moutai's wholesale prices rebounded due to supply control measures and increased market demand during the peak season [24].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 1.01% on December 31, with *ST Yanshi leading the drop, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.58% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes for key liquor stocks are as follows: - *ST Yanshi: 2.90, -4.92% - Gujing Gongjiu: 132.60, -2.23% - Shede Manye: 56.08, -1.61% - Quanwei Jiu: 20.42, -1.40% - Luzhou Laojiao: 116.22, -1.38% - Wuliangye: 105.94, -1.32% - Zhisi Cha: 54.58, -1.30% - Yingjia Gongjiu: 39.56, -1.27% - Yilite: 13.84, -1.14% - Huangtai Jiuye: 12.51, -1.11% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.573 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 712 million yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks indicates: - Gujing Gongjiu: Main net inflow of 5.437 million yuan, retail net inflow of 2.302 million yuan - *ST Yanshi: Main net outflow of 4.866 million yuan, retail net inflow of 4.265 million yuan - Other stocks like Jinzhongzi Jiu and Kuozi Jiao experienced significant net outflows from main and retail funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in Water Jiufang's stock price, driven by unverified rumors of a potential acquisition by Jian Nan Chun, highlights the market's anxiety and desire for narratives amid the challenges faced by the liquor industry, including high inventory and cash flow issues [1][2]. Company Summary - Water Jiufang's stock experienced a dramatic increase, with a market value rise of nearly 4 billion RMB in a single day due to rumors of acquisition [1]. - The company later clarified that there were no plans or negotiations for acquisition, which led to a quick market correction [2]. - Water Jiufang's financial performance is under severe pressure, with a reported revenue of 2.348 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 38.01%, and a net profit drop of 71.02% to 326 million RMB [2]. - The company's cash flow situation is critical, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -867 million RMB, a decline of 212%, indicating liquidity issues [2]. Industry Summary - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a phase of expansion to one of value reconfiguration amid declining production and sales figures [7][8]. - The industry is facing its first comprehensive decline in production, sales revenue, and total profit in years, as reported by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association [7]. - Current strategies for industry consolidation include deep integration of existing assets and leveraging state-owned enterprises for strategic restructuring [10][11]. - Structural barriers hinder large-scale market consolidation, including regulatory restrictions on IPOs and mergers, as well as the reluctance of local governments to sell stakes in regional liquor brands [12][14][15]. - The market remains cautious, with the potential for further consolidation as second and third-tier brands face increasing survival pressures [17].

Core Viewpoint - Water Well's stock price has shown volatility, with a significant decline over the year but a recent uptick in the short term, indicating potential market interest despite overall poor performance in revenue and profit [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 30, Water Well's stock increased by 2.01%, reaching 39.50 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 99.84 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.53% [1]. - Year-to-date, Water Well's stock has decreased by 24.84%, but it has risen by 9.57% over the last five trading days [1]. - The stock's performance over the last 20 days shows a slight decline of 0.85%, while it has dropped by 9.78% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Water Well reported a revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, down 71.02% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Water Well has distributed a total of 5.378 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.280 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Water Well had 80,500 shareholders, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period, with an average of 6,053 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 5.91% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the China Securities White Wine Index A (161725) holds 17.7303 million shares, an increase of 1.6367 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang aims to contribute to Chengdu's high-quality development by focusing on six key areas as it transitions into the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, aligning its growth strategy with the city's development goals [4]. Group 1: Industry Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the optimization and enhancement of traditional industries, with Chengdu aiming to build a modern industrial system centered around advanced manufacturing [5]. - Water Jiufang, as a leading enterprise in Chengdu's liquor production, is strategically expanding its production bases, integrating traditional brewing techniques with modern technology, and investing over 6.8 billion yuan in its Qionglai production base [5]. - The company is creating a micro-ecosystem that covers the entire production chain, enhancing efficiency while preserving traditional craftsmanship [5]. Group 2: International Engagement - Water Jiufang is positioned as a key player in Chengdu's goal to become a national center for international exchanges, leveraging its unique advantages from foreign partnerships [6]. - Since its acquisition by Diageo in 2013, Water Jiufang has integrated international management practices, enhancing its global market presence and confidence among foreign investors [6]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The company is responding to changing consumer preferences by focusing on quality upgrades and emotional consumption, aligning with Chengdu's goal of becoming a major international consumption center [7]. - Water Jiufang's dual-brand strategy, featuring the main brand and the high-end "Diyifang," caters to different consumer segments, reinforcing its market position [7][8]. Group 4: Cultural Integration - Water Jiufang is actively contributing to Chengdu's cultural development by transforming its historical heritage into a vibrant cultural brand, supported by its status as a national cultural heritage site [9]. - The company has launched a unique cultural tourism route that connects its museum with other city landmarks, enhancing public engagement with its heritage [9]. Group 5: Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of technological innovation, which Water Jiufang is addressing through research collaborations focused on microbial communities in traditional brewing [10]. - The company is utilizing smart manufacturing technologies to enhance production processes, ensuring that traditional techniques are preserved while improving efficiency [10][11]. Group 6: Sustainability Initiatives - Water Jiufang has integrated sustainability into its core strategy, establishing a comprehensive ESG framework and setting quantifiable goals for carbon reduction and resource recycling [12][13]. - The Qionglai production base exemplifies the company's commitment to green practices, achieving significant energy savings and waste recycling, and receiving international green building certifications [12][13].