Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Industry**: Liquor and Beverage Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Performance - Shede Liquor anticipates a release of market demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day despite facing policy pressures [2][3] - The company has adjusted its inventory and performance metrics over the past year, resulting in better performance compared to peers [2][3] Inventory Management - Overall inventory levels remain high, but the company aims to prioritize sales over invoices to gradually reduce inventory [2][6] - The current inventory is estimated to cover approximately 3 to 4 months, with weaker markets showing higher inventory levels [7] Sales Strategy - The company is implementing a "small orders quick run" strategy to lower entry barriers for new distributors and attract resourceful new partners [4][12] - Sales performance in various consumption scenarios (banquets, gifts, and business) is expected to improve with the upcoming holidays [5] Consumer Insights - Shede Liquor's consumers are primarily from emerging industries, showing less brand loyalty and a greater focus on drinking comfort rather than brand recognition [9] - The company leverages its high-quality aged liquor to cater to these consumer preferences [9] New Product Development - The launch of the 29-degree "Shede Zizai" low-alcohol liquor is focused on online sales and aims to test market response in 24 cities with a zero-inventory model [10][11] - The pricing strategy for the new product is set at around 300 yuan to differentiate it from high-concentration products [11] Challenges and Opportunities - The company is exploring opportunities in the technology sector due to slow recovery in the restaurant, business, and real estate chains [8] - The performance of the "Pinwei" series products is under pressure due to weak business demand, requiring time to cultivate the market [17] Financial Outlook - Shede Liquor expects to perform better than the industry in the second half of the year, with improvements dependent on overall industry adjustments [16] - The company plans to maintain stable sales expenses while focusing on consumer engagement to stimulate sales [18] Regional Market Insights - The growth in the Henan market in Q2 is attributed to a low base from the previous year, with expectations for gradual recovery [15] - The company is focusing on seven key base markets, ensuring comprehensive coverage across all price segments [14] Distributor Relations - Most distributors are currently profitable and show high confidence in the company, supported by various initiatives to enhance market presence [4][12][14] Additional Important Content - The company emphasizes the importance of dynamic adjustments in inventory management to ensure long-term health and development [2][6] - Shede Liquor's cautious approach to new product launches aims to avoid potential damage to brand reputation [10]

Group 1 - The "Double Festival" period, which includes both Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, is traditionally a peak consumption period for the liquor industry, but this year, sales are significantly lower compared to previous years [1][2] - Sales volume has decreased by approximately 30% year-on-year, with many retailers reporting slow pre-festival consumption and a focus on clearing existing inventory [1][2] - Consumers are exhibiting more rational purchasing behavior, with daily sales reported to be only a few dozen bottles, and new customer orders are scarce [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the upcoming festivals, the liquor market is experiencing a "peak season not booming" trend, with prices remaining low and promotional activities being widespread [2][3] - High-end liquor prices are also declining, with the price of a 500ml bottle of Feitian Moutai dropping from around 2400 yuan last year to 1820 yuan this year [3] - The trend of rational consumption is evident, with consumers prioritizing value for money and practicality, leading to a reduction in high-end liquor demand [3][4] Group 3 - In response to the current market conditions, liquor companies are exploring new growth avenues, such as launching low-alcohol products to attract consumers [4] - There is still some optimism among merchants regarding potential consumption increases in the latter half of September, as they anticipate a slight recovery in sales during the "Double Festival" [4]

Core Viewpoint - The wine industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales ahead of the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, traditionally a peak consumption period for alcoholic beverages [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Trends - Sales volume in the Jinan wine market has decreased by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, with many retailers reporting a slowdown in pre-holiday purchasing activity [2][5]. - Retailers are focusing on inventory clearance as the primary sales strategy, with many orders coming from existing customers rather than new ones [3][5]. - The average daily sales for some retailers have dropped to just over ten bottles, indicating a shift towards more rational purchasing behavior among consumers [3][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are exhibiting more rational purchasing habits, with a preference for value and practicality over high-end products [6][9]. - There is a noticeable trend of consumers opting for "last-minute" purchases, with some customers placing orders only a week before events, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns [9][10]. - The demand for high-end white wines remains subdued, with prices for premium products like Moutai significantly lower than last year, indicating a price sensitivity among consumers [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the overall decline in sales, there are signs of slight recovery as the holidays approach, with some retailers reporting an uptick in orders for high-end brands [3][5]. - Local brands such as Baotu Spring and Langyatai are maintaining stable sales, primarily serving as local specialty gifts and everyday consumption [5]. - The market is witnessing a trend towards low-alcohol products, with several brands launching new low-alcohol offerings in response to changing consumer preferences [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in mid-year performance, primarily driven by a significant drop in the second quarter, with revenue and net profit both experiencing substantial year-on-year decreases [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [2]. - The gross profit margin was 73.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - The second quarter saw a dramatic revenue decline of 29.69% year-on-year, with revenue at 1.852 billion yuan and net profit down over 37% to 585 million yuan [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from the company's main products, 特A+ and 特A, experienced year-on-year declines of -32% and -28%, respectively, indicating significant policy impact on high-end products [4]. - The management noted that high-end products, particularly those priced at "四开" and above, were most affected, while lower-tier products like "对开" and "单开" showed resilience and even some growth [4]. Market Dynamics - The company faced a 6.07% year-on-year revenue decline in the Jiangsu provincial market, with the largest drop in the Nanjing region at 7.94% [5]. - In the second quarter, revenue from the provincial market fell by 32%, with specific declines in various regions, including -39% in the Su Nan area [5]. - Despite the challenges, the company believes there is still significant growth potential in the Jiangsu market due to product and regional imbalances [5]. External Market Strategy - The company is focusing on core markets surrounding Jiangsu, such as Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, where it aims to enhance product competitiveness [6]. - Revenue from the provincial market outside Jiangsu reached 628 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, with a net increase of 38 distributors [8]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates that a substantial recovery in the liquor industry may not occur until the second half of 2026, with potential improvements in the fourth quarter of 2025 [8]. - The company is exploring the introduction of lower-alcohol products to cater to younger consumers, although past attempts at lower alcohol content faced challenges [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilient growth of Wuliangye during a period of deep adjustment in the liquor industry, emphasizing its ability to maintain stable performance despite a slowdown in growth rates compared to previous years [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Wuliangye achieved revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company's growth rate is noted to be the first single-digit growth in nearly a decade, indicating a significant slowdown compared to past performance [4]. Product Performance - Wuliangye's main product line generated revenue of 40.99 billion yuan, growing by 4.57%, while other liquor products contributed 8.12 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.73% [5]. - The overall price per ton of liquor decreased by 27.89% to 433,600 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross margin to 82.2% [5]. Production and Sales - The production volume of Wuliangye products increased by 11.56% to 25,559 tons, with sales rising by 12.75% to 27,278 tons. In contrast, the production of series liquor surged by 60.15% to 76,650 tons, with sales increasing by 58.81% to 86,005 tons [6][7]. Channel Strategy - Wuliangye is focusing on enhancing direct sales and improving the profitability of distributors. Direct sales generated revenue of 21.20 billion yuan, up 8.6%, accounting for 43.15% of total revenue [7][8]. - The company has reduced the number of distributors to 2,510, while increasing the number of Wuliangye's own distributors to 1,077 [8]. New Product Launches - Wuliangye is targeting younger consumers with the launch of a new low-alcohol product, "Yijian Qingxin," and a new craft beer, "Fenghuolun," aiming to capture the growing low-alcohol market [9][13][15]. - The low-alcohol market in China is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, indicating strong growth potential [13]. Market Position - As of August 28, Wuliangye's stock price was 125.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 487 billion yuan, reflecting its strong position in the market [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - A "degree reduction competition" is emerging in the Chinese liquor industry, with major brands launching lower-alcohol products to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Major liquor companies like Wuliangye and Shede are introducing lower-alcohol products, reflecting a shift in consumer demand and a response to market changes [3][4]. - In the past month, four companies have announced new low-alcohol products, with alcohol content decreasing progressively, indicating a trend towards lower alcohol offerings [3][4]. - The introduction of lower-alcohol products is accompanied by modern packaging and online sales strategies, targeting younger consumers through celebrity endorsements [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The rise of younger consumers, particularly those born between 1985 and 1994, is influencing the liquor market, as they prefer drinks that are more palatable and healthier [5][6]. - Traditional high-alcohol liquor is losing appeal among younger consumers, who are increasingly drawn to beer, fruit wine, and cocktails, with white liquor only accounting for 31.8% of their consumption [5][6]. - The shift in consumer preferences is prompting liquor companies to innovate and adapt their offerings to meet the diverse needs of modern consumers [5][7]. Group 3: Market Potential - The domestic low-alcohol liquor market is projected to reach 74 billion yuan by 2025, indicating significant growth potential for this segment [6]. - Lower-alcohol products are expected to complement existing sales channels and cater to social drinking occasions, potentially opening new revenue streams for companies [6][7]. - While lowering alcohol content is a key strategy, companies must also consider how to meet the evolving demands of younger consumers in various social contexts [7].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a phase of stock game and shrinking competition, leading to a general performance decline among companies, including a slight revenue drop for Jinshiyuan [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.23 billion yuan, down 9.46% [3] - In the second quarter, revenue was 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.69%; net profit was 585 million yuan, down 37.06%, marking the first decline since 2014 [7] Market Dynamics - The company relies heavily on the domestic market, with nearly 90% of revenue coming from Jiangsu province, which generated 6.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.07%; revenue from outside the province was 628 million yuan, up 4.84% [4] - The product structure shows that the only growth category was the Te A class products (factory price 100-300 yuan), with revenue of 2.23 billion yuan, up 0.74%; other price categories saw varying degrees of decline [4] Sales Channels - Direct sales (including group purchases) generated 142 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 49.47%; however, wholesale and agency channels saw a revenue decline of 5.91%, still remaining the main sales channel [5] - E-commerce channels showed considerable growth due to strong online demand and continuous brand strength [5] Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to maintain its strategic direction but will make appropriate adjustments in market strategies in response to current policy environments [8] - To alleviate market pressure, the company may launch lower-alcohol products and adjust pricing strategies to enhance product competitiveness [9][13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential improvement in the industry by the second half of 2026, with a possibility of a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline improvement in Q4 2025, although year-on-year performance remains uncertain [12]

Group 1 - The low-alcohol beverage segment in the Chinese liquor market is gaining momentum, with major companies like Gujing Gongjiu and Shede Liquor launching new products [6][7][8] - Companies are responding to declining sales and high inventory levels by introducing low-alcohol products to attract younger consumers and expand market demand [7][11][12] - The overall inventory of 20 listed liquor companies reached 168.39 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in stock levels and underscoring the need for new consumer demand [8][11] Group 2 - Gujing Gongjiu launched its first low-alcohol product, "Gujing Gongjiu·Nianfen Yuanjiang Light 20," with an alcohol content of 26 degrees, targeting urban young professionals [6][24] - The pricing strategy for Gujing Gongjiu's new product has raised questions about its acceptance among the target demographic, as it is priced at 375 yuan for 375ml, which translates to approximately 500 yuan for 500ml [22][24] - The competition in the low-alcohol segment is intensifying, with other major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also preparing to launch similar products, potentially impacting consumer attention and market dynamics [18][27]

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu has launched a new low-alcohol product, "Gujinggongjiu Year Original Light Gu20," with an alcohol content of 26 degrees, targeting urban elites aged 25-35 who seek a lighter drinking experience [2][10]. Product Launch - The new product was introduced on August 19 in Shenyang, featuring a 375ml bottle priced at 375 yuan, which translates to approximately 500 yuan for a 500ml equivalent [2][7]. - The product aims to cover nine drinking scenarios, including solo drinking, couple dates, and gatherings with friends [2]. Pricing Strategy - The pricing of the new low-alcohol product is significantly higher than mainstream low-alcohol beverages and is close to some mid-range high-alcohol products, raising questions about its acceptance among young consumers [2][9]. - The existing 52-degree Gu20 has seen a decline in retail prices, with some channels offering it below 600 yuan, indicating a price sensitivity in the market [3][9]. Market Context - Gujinggongjiu's core product, Gu20, has been a strong performer, contributing to 80% of the company's white liquor revenue, with a reported revenue of 180.86 billion yuan in 2024, up 17.31% year-on-year [10]. - The company faces increasing pressure to find new growth points as its net profit growth has slowed to just over 20% in 2024, down from 46.01% in 2023 [10]. Competitive Landscape - The low-alcohol segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with several major liquor companies, including Shede and Wuliangye, announcing plans to launch their own low-alcohol products [11]. - Gujinggongjiu must navigate challenges such as consumer perception, market education, and price acceptance in a market that is already experiencing sluggish growth [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market in China is transitioning from a focus on quantity and showmanship to an emphasis on experience and comfort, driven by rising health awareness among consumers and the emergence of the "tipsy economy" [1] Industry Trends - The production share of low-alcohol liquor in China is expected to rise from approximately 15% in 2022 to over 25% by 2024 [1] - The market size for low-alcohol liquor is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 25% [1] Company Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has successfully positioned its low-alcohol product, "38-degree Guojiao 1573," as a phenomenon in the market, achieving a market share of over 100 billion yuan [1][6] - The company has been proactive in addressing consumer misconceptions about low-alcohol liquor, recognizing the demand for healthier and more comfortable drinking experiences [2][3] Technological Advancements - Luzhou Laojiao has invested decades into overcoming technical challenges associated with low-alcohol liquor production, ensuring that flavor quality is maintained despite reduced alcohol content [3][4] - The company has developed a unique three-part process involving segmented distillation, ceramic jar aging, and precise blending to maintain flavor integrity [3][9] Market Positioning - The "38-degree Guojiao 1573" has become a key driver of Luzhou Laojiao's low-alcohol strategy, with sales expected to surpass 20 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 50% of the brand's total sales [8] - The product has redefined consumer perceptions of low-alcohol liquor, establishing it as a mainstream choice for high-end occasions such as business banquets and weddings [8][9] Future Outlook - Luzhou Laojiao plans to introduce a new 28-degree version of Guojiao 1573, further expanding its low-alcohol product line [9] - The company's success in the low-alcohol segment signifies a shift in the industry towards recognizing the value of low-alcohol products as high-quality and scalable options [9]