作者︱懂酒哥 白酒行业的回调期仍在持续，水井坊的业绩崩塌与股权传闻，成为次高端赛道困局与川酒资源整合的典型观察样本。 日前，水井坊披露2025年度业绩预告，公司全年营收同比锐减42%至30.38亿元，归母净利润暴跌71%至3.92亿元，扣非归母净利润也同比下降71%至3.81亿 元。以此数据回看此前的业绩，水井坊将创下2018年以来的净利润最低值。 而比业绩崩塌更牵动行业神经的，是水井坊即将被出售的持续传闻。在白酒行业并购重组的政策东风下，水井坊的股权变局不仅关乎企业自身命运，更成为 川酒资源整合的重要试金石，其背后是次高端赛道的残酷竞争，更是本土白酒产业与外资资本的博弈与抉择。 二十年外资联姻或将陌路 根据业绩预告，水井坊方面表示，2025年白酒行业受宏观经济周期、产业调整周期及政策调整等多重因素影响，进入深度调整阶段，传统商务宴请等消费场 景恢复较缓，行业库存整体处于高位。面对外部环境变化，公司坚持稳中求进的经营方针，围绕"平衡基础、深化调整、夯实发展"三个方向开展主动管理。 主动调整的背后，水井坊早已深陷经营困局。首当其冲的便是现金流与资金链全面承压，2025年前三季度，公司经营活动现金流净额为-8.6 ...

方正证券研报指出，水井坊2025年预计实现营业收入30.38亿元，同比下降42%；实现归母净利润3.92亿 元，同比下降71%，其中25Q4预计实现归母净利润0.66亿元，同比下降69.52%。在行业整体承压的背景 下，水井坊坚持长期主义，通过稳健的经营举措稳固公司基本盘、提振渠道信心，持续推动既定战略的 有序落地，以实现品牌的健康发展。预计公司25-27年实现营业收入30.17/31.76/35.52亿元，实现归母净 利润3.92/3.95/4.45亿元，PE分别为48.42/47.99/42.61x，给予"推荐"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, attributed to deep industry adjustments and a strategic contraction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 42% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 381 million yuan, also down 71% [1] - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 51.73%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 69.52% [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase in 2025 due to macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with traditional consumption scenarios recovering slowly [1] - Overall industry inventory levels are high, impacting performance [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company prioritizes maintaining channel health by controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel fund safety to lay a healthy foundation for future growth [2] - Measures include product suspension, optimizing promotional policies, and enhancing market order management to stabilize channel confidence and pricing [2] - The company has integrated channel inventory management into core KPIs to maintain channel profitability and healthy sales [2] Group 4: Long-term Development - Despite short-term performance pressure, the company aims to improve channel inventory quality, pricing stability, and distribution structure for future growth [2] - The company continues to invest long-term, optimizing expense efficiency and improving productivity measures [2] - New product "Shuijingfang·Jing 18" was launched, with a dual limit strategy on annual volume and partner numbers to create product scarcity [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company maintains a long-term perspective, expecting revenues of 3.017 billion yuan, 3.176 billion yuan, and 3.552 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 392 million yuan, 395 million yuan, and 445 million yuan respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are 48.42, 47.99, and 42.61 for the same period [3]

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang's 2025 performance forecast indicates a significant decline in operating data, with expected revenue of 3.038 billion yuan, a 42% year-on-year decrease, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, reflecting a 71% drop, potentially marking the lowest profit since 2018 [1][5] Group 1: Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to a series of adjustments focused on channel health and pricing systems, particularly the suspension of core product sales initiated in July [1][5] - The suspension of the core product, Zhenniang No. 8, which accounts for over 50% of the company's revenue, directly impacted the overall performance [1][5] - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue plummeted by 58.91% year-on-year, with sales receipts down 74.8% to 582 million yuan, and contract liabilities decreased to 862 million yuan, an 18% decline [6] Group 2: Channel and Inventory Management - In addition to sales suspension, optimizing channel structure is a key action for Water Jiufang in 2025, addressing high inventory levels and price inversion issues among distributors [2][6] - The company has reduced pressure on distributors to stock products and is focusing on new channels such as e-commerce, group buying, and O2O, with new channel revenue growing by 71.24% year-on-year to 562 million yuan, although this only accounts for 25.44% of total revenue [2][6] - Traditional wholesale channels saw a revenue decline of 50.45% year-on-year, with sales volume down 42.27% [2][6] Group 3: Industry Context and Challenges - The performance decline is a result of both industry cycles and internal operational issues, with the white liquor industry entering a deep adjustment phase in 2025 [3][7] - Core consumption scenarios such as banquets and business dinners are recovering slowly, compounded by local "alcohol bans," leading to sustained weak consumer demand [3][7] - Increased competition in the mid-to-high-end liquor price range (300-800 yuan) has further squeezed market space for Water Jiufang [3][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company's ability to recover from the performance low point hinges on the progress of channel system reconstruction, product matrix optimization, and the recovery pace of industry consumption scenarios [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 1.83% on January 21, with *ST Rock leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed slight increases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 2.642 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 858 million yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - *ST Rock closed at 2.24 yuan, down 5.08% with a trading volume of 5409 lots [1] - Other notable declines included Quan Wei Jiu down 4.04%, Zhi Si Li down 3.97%, and Shui Jing Fang down 3.52% [1] - The highest closing price was for Shanxi Fen Jiu at 166.99 yuan, down 2.34% [1] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds showed a significant outflow from several stocks, including Lao Bai Gan Jiu with a net outflow of 18.7589 million yuan [2] - Retail investors had a net inflow in stocks like Jin Shi Zi Jiu, which saw a net inflow of 12.814 million yuan [2] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among different types of investors within the liquor sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in its financial performance for the year 2025, with a projected net profit of 392 million yuan, representing a 71% decrease year-on-year, and an expected revenue of 3.038 billion yuan, down 42% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase due to multiple factors, including industry restructuring and policy changes, leading to a slow recovery in traditional consumption scenarios such as business banquets [1]. - Overall industry inventory remains high, contributing to the challenging market conditions [1]. Group 2: Company Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health as a priority, controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel fund safety to lay a healthy foundation for future growth [1]. - A series of adjustments have been implemented, including halting shipments, optimizing promotional policies, and enhancing market order management to strengthen channel confidence and price stability [2]. - The company continues to invest in brand building, terminal expansion, product innovation, and organizational capabilities, aiming to improve efficiency and productivity, which aligns with its long-term strategic direction [3].

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang, a prominent player in the Chinese liquor industry, has issued a profit warning for 2025, forecasting a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, raising concerns about its future amid ongoing discussions of a potential sale by its parent company, Diageo [2][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Water Jiufang expects a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan for 2025, a 42% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 850 million yuan, a 58.91% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 221 million yuan, down 75.01% year-on-year [5]. - High-end liquor sales for the first three quarters reached 2.08 billion yuan, a 39.9% decrease, while mid-range liquor sales were 130 million yuan, down 33.1% [5]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with cash flow issues among distributors and increased pressure on sales and channel management [5]. - Water Jiufang's aggressive marketing strategies, including bottle opening promotions, reflect the urgency to boost sales amid declining profit margins [5]. Group 3: Potential Sale Discussions - Diageo has engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS as financial advisors to evaluate its Chinese operations, particularly its 63% stake in Water Jiufang, indicating a potential sale [8][9]. - The new CEO of Diageo, Dave Lewis, known for cost-cutting measures, may increase the likelihood of Water Jiufang being sold as part of a broader strategy to optimize asset structure [9]. - Recent visits by the chairman of Chuanjiu Group to Water Jiufang's facilities have reignited speculation about a possible acquisition, although previous rumors have been denied by Water Jiufang [10].

Star Brands - Ma Liu Ji plans to expand its stores to 400-500 locations, currently operating over 240 stores with retail business accounting for 40% of its operations [2] - Hao Huan Luo opened its first overseas store in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, featuring over 50 SKUs with prices comparable to domestic offerings [3] - New Oriental Education appointed Chen Xingjia as a senior advisor with an annual salary of 1.5 million RMB, while committing to donate at least 1 million RMB annually to a charity fund [4] - Yuexiu Wind Industry launched its first store under the "Guangzhou Milk Company" brand, focusing on fresh milk from local farms [5] - Hormel Foods appointed Domenic Borrelli as the new executive vice president of retail business, effective February 23, 2026 [5] Consumer Platforms - A survey revealed that 87% of Amazon sellers plan to use AliExpress as a second growth curve for brand expansion [6] - IPC reported that Temu's international market share is expected to rise to 24% by 2025, up from 1% in 2022, matching Amazon's share [6] - eBay will adjust fees for enterprise sellers starting February 12, 2026, to support seller growth [7] - TikTok Shop's cross-border e-commerce in Southeast Asia is projected to double its GMV by 2025 [8] - Cainiao launched customized logistics services for non-e-commerce projects, marking a significant expansion in its service offerings [9] - Xiaohongshu introduced a new community guideline aimed at promoting positive interactions and preventing misinformation [10] - Douyin released a white paper on live streaming governance, highlighting improvements in compliance and safety measures [11] - SHEIN initiated a "zero-based" skills training program for unemployed graduates and workers in collaboration with local labor unions [12] Investment and Financial Reports - Junlebao Dairy submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC and Morgan Stanley as joint sponsors [14] - Mingming Henbang commenced its global offering, aiming to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 28, with cornerstone investors including Tencent and Temasek [15] - Shuijingfang expects a revenue of 3.038 billion RMB for 2025, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, attributed to industry adjustments and high inventory levels [16]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively closed lower on January 20, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, and over 2,200 stocks rose, including 63 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Institutional Ratings - A total of 11 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 9 stocks, with Hunan YN and Keda receiving 2 buy ratings each [2] - Among the stocks with buy ratings, 6 companies provided earnings forecasts for 2025, with Hunan YN expected to see a net profit increase of 114.81% year-on-year, followed by Zhenyu Technology and Keda with expected increases of 106.74% and 59.82% respectively [2] Industry Focus - The power equipment industry was the most favored by institutions, with 4 stocks including Hunan YN and Keda listed [2] - The automotive and food & beverage industries also attracted institutional attention, each having 2 stocks featured [2] Institutional Trading - In the top trading list, 17 stocks had net buying amounts exceeding 10 million yuan, with Hunan Baiyin leading at 80.83 million yuan, followed by Tongyu Communications at 55.55 million yuan [4] - Among the net selling stocks, Sanwei Communication faced the highest net sell of 194 million yuan [4] Northbound Capital - 12 stocks on the northbound trading list saw net buying, with Tongyu Communications leading at 97.57 million yuan, followed by Tiantong Co. and Hunan Baiyin, both exceeding 60 million yuan [6] Company Announcements - ST Saiwei (300044) announced an expected net profit loss of 720 million to 1.02 billion yuan for 2025, influenced by litigation and arbitration judgments [7] - Kangxin New Materials (600076) plans to acquire 51% of Wuxi Yubang Semiconductor Technology for 392 million yuan, marking its expansion into the semiconductor sector [8] - Huadian Technology (601226) signed a procurement contract worth approximately 374 million yuan for a wind-solar hydrogen project [8] - China Merchants Energy (601872) plans to build 4 container ships with a total investment of up to 1.324 billion yuan [9] - Anhui Construction (600502) received project bids totaling 13.76 million yuan for two projects [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 391 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year [1][3]. - The fourth quarter is projected to see a revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 51.73%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 69.52% year-on-year [1]. - The significant decline in financial performance is attributed to macroeconomic conditions, industry adjustments, and policy factors, leading to a slow recovery in demand for core scenarios like business banquets [7]. - The company has proactively managed inventory levels during the industry downturn, ensuring a healthy channel and price stability, which has resulted in a controlled inventory level of 2-3 months for its core product [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%, while 2025 is expected to see a revenue drop of 41.7% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.341 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%, while 2025 is expected to see a significant decline of 70.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50 [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product upgrades and refined channel management, with a dual-brand strategy to enhance brand image and product recognition [7]. - The core product, "Zhen Niang Ba Hao," maintains a price range of 250-300 yuan, which is expected to support a gradual recovery in demand [7]. - The company anticipates that while the first quarter of 2026 may still face pressure, there is potential for marginal improvement in operations by the second quarter due to low base effects [7].