证券代码：600803 证券简称：新奥股份 公告编号：临 2025-048 新奥天然气股份有限公司 关于 2025 年度预计担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称：常州新奥燃气发展有限公司、ENN LNG (SINGAPORE) PTE. LTD.。 （1）成立日期：2005 年 3 月 28 日 | 被担保人 | | 担保金额（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | | 常州新奥燃气发展有限公司 | | 30,000.00 | | ENN LNG (SINGAPORE) PTE. | LTD. | 21,604.20 | 特别风险提示：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，公司及子公司对外担保余额超 过公司最近一期经审计净资产的 50%、被担保子公司存在资产负债率超过 70% 的情况，均在公司股东大会审议通过的担保范围内，敬请投资者注意相关风险。 一、2025 年度担保预计情况 新奥天然气股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会第二十二次会议、 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The operating profit and profitability of the public utility sector have improved, with Q1 2025 revenue at 551.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.11% to 54.59 billion yuan [2][21] - The coal-fired power sector benefited from a decline in thermal coal prices, with Q1 2025 revenue at 307.92 billion yuan, down 7.67%, but net profit rose by 8.58% to 23.04 billion yuan [2][45] - The hydropower sector saw revenue increase by 8.66% to 41.80 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with net profit growing by 28.07% to 11.34 billion yuan, driven by increased hydropower generation [2][70] - The nuclear power sector experienced revenue growth of 8.42% to 40.30 billion yuan in Q1 2025, although profit performance varied among companies [2][28] - The investment strategy suggests maintaining an overweight rating for the sector, focusing on companies like Huadian International and Guodian Power in the coal power segment, and Xintian Gas and Xin'ao in the gas sector [2] Summary by Sections 1. Public Utility Sector Performance - The public utility sector includes 133 listed companies, with 102 in the power sector and 31 in the gas sector. In 2024, the sector's revenue was 23,085.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.24%, while net profit increased by 5.38% to 1,848.50 billion yuan [10] 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Coal Power - The coal power sector's revenue in 2024 was 13,060.52 billion yuan, down 1.11%, with net profit rising by 24.06% to 676.91 billion yuan, benefiting from lower coal prices [28][32] 2.2 Hydropower - In 2024, hydropower revenue was 1,947.67 billion yuan, up 8.99%, with net profit increasing by 17.55% to 563.21 billion yuan, attributed to higher hydropower generation [62] 2.3 New Energy - In 2024, solar power generation was 419.08 billion kWh, up 28.2%, while wind power generation was 936.05 billion kWh, up 11.1% [79] 2.4 Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's revenue in Q1 2025 was 40.30 billion yuan, an increase of 8.42%, with varying profit performances among companies [2][28] 2.5 Gas - The gas sector's performance was impacted by rising costs, with specific companies recommended for investment [2] 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends an overweight rating for the public utility sector, highlighting potential growth in coal and gas companies due to favorable market conditions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and natural gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][10]. Core Insights - The Shandong provincial government has introduced its first local guidelines for the marketization of renewable energy pricing, which is expected to stabilize returns for existing projects and provide a model for other provinces [5][7]. - Global natural gas prices have seen a slight rebound due to tightening supply and increased demand for LNG exports, with specific price movements noted in various regions [10][19]. - The report highlights the potential for LNG import prices to decrease further in the second half of 2025, benefiting downstream gas companies [11][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Shandong's New Energy Market Guidelines - Shandong's new energy pricing reform outlines that existing projects will participate in market pricing at a rate of 0.3949 yuan per kWh, aligning with the provincial coal benchmark price [5][6]. - The guidelines emphasize strong connectivity with existing policies, ensuring stability for existing projects while introducing competitive elements for new projects [6][7]. - The implementation of these guidelines is expected to serve as a model for other provinces, enhancing the operational efficiency and market strategies of renewable energy companies [7][8]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Demand and Price Rebound - As of May 9, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $3.22/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.84%, while European prices also saw a rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [10][19]. - The report notes that the overall LNG import cost in China has remained below 4000 yuan per ton, with a significant decrease of 18.4% from the year's peak [11][29]. - The anticipated decline in international oil prices is expected to further lower LNG import prices in China, benefiting city gas companies [11][29]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utilities, environmental protection, power equipment, and gas sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the review period [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the issuance of competitive configuration announcements for renewable energy projects in various provinces, indicating ongoing investment and growth in the sector [44][46]. - The report also highlights significant corporate announcements, including financing and profit distribution plans from key players in the energy sector, reflecting a proactive approach to capital management and shareholder returns [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The company is set to implement a large-scale coal conversion project in Xinjiang, utilizing a new technology called coal hydrogenation pyrolysis to achieve clean and efficient utilization of abundant coal resources in the region [2][3]. Group 1: Technology Overview - The coal hydrogenation pyrolysis technology integrates the advantages of coal-to-gas and coal-to-oil processes, producing high-value light aromatics and methane as by-products [2]. - The process operates under medium temperature (800℃~1000℃) and high pressure (5~10 MPa), involving rapid hydrogenation pyrolysis reactions and secondary cracking of volatile components [2][3]. - The technology is suitable for high-volatile coal, producing high-quality aromatics with benzene and naphthalene accounting for up to 80% of the aromatic products [2][3]. Group 2: Project Development - The company has established a 400 tons/day industrial demonstration unit in Inner Mongolia and plans to optimize it in 2024, upgrading core systems [3]. - Multiple million-ton-level coal conversion projects are planned in Xinjiang, aiming to create a closed-loop industry of "clean coal conversion—high-end material manufacturing" [3][4]. - The projects have passed feasibility assessments and are currently advancing through environmental impact report approvals [3]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The technology is expected to facilitate the transformation and upgrading of coal resources, aligning with the national "dual carbon" strategy goals [4]. - By integrating with green electricity, green hydrogen, and steel metallurgy industries, the technology aims to enhance resource efficiency and sustainability in traditional energy sectors [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utilities industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The public utilities index increased by 0.9% in the last two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.9 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has decreased by 1.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.8 percentage points, ranking 21st [6][13]. - Among the sub-sectors, six out of seven saw price increases, with the heat service sector rising by 3.4%, photovoltaic power by 3.0%, and gas by 2.0%. The only sector to decline was the electric energy comprehensive service sector, which fell by 1.2% [15]. - The report highlights significant stock movements, with 81 out of 131 listed companies in the index seeing price increases, led by Huayin Power (up 40.3%), ST Shengda (up 25.9%), and Huadian Liaoning Energy (up 25.2%). Conversely, 49 companies experienced declines, with Guangxi Energy down 12.8% [15][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of May 8, the public utilities index has shown mixed performance, with a slight increase in the last two weeks but a decline year-to-date. The index's performance relative to the CSI 300 indicates a need for cautious investment strategies [6][13]. 2. Industry Valuation - The public utilities sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 18.3 times. The photovoltaic sector has a notably high P/E ratio of 729.6 times, while the thermal power sector is at 12.0 times, indicating varying levels of market confidence across sub-sectors [19][20]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of Q6000 coal at the Shaanxi Yulin pit was 592 RMB/ton, down 2.0% from the previous value. The average price of Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao port was 651 RMB/ton, also down 2.0% [32][35]. 4. Key Industry News - The National Energy Administration released the "China Hydrogen Energy Development Report (2025)," emphasizing the promotion of hydrogen energy policies and the development of the hydrogen energy industry chain [41][43]. - The report also mentions the support for private enterprises in the energy sector, aiming to enhance their market participation and improve energy governance services [38][41]. 5. Industry Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huadian International and Guodian Power in the thermal power sector, and New Hope Holdings, Jiufeng Energy, and New Natural Gas in the gas sector, as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies have shown resilience and stability in their performance, supported by a series of incremental policies, reflecting a robust economic structure in China [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - In 2024, companies on the Shanghai main board achieved overseas revenue of 6.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with non-US exports accounting for over 80% [2] - Key export destinations include ASEAN, Africa, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant growth in sales for companies like SANY Heavy Industry and SAIC Motor [2] - Major construction state-owned enterprises have actively expanded overseas, signing new orders worth 1.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] Group 2: High-Tech Product Exports - High-tech products such as high-end equipment, integrated circuits, smart home appliances, and electric vehicles have accelerated exports, leading to revenue growth in related industries [3] - Companies like Oriental Cable and Zhaoyi Innovation have made significant strides in international markets, with Zhaoyi Innovation achieving record high shipments [3] - The rise of new business models like cross-border e-commerce has boosted overseas sales for various sectors, including light manufacturing and retail [3] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - From 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, over 1,500 new M&A transactions were recorded on the Shanghai main board, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4] - Notable M&A cases include Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities and China Shipbuilding's proposed merger with China CSSC, each exceeding 100 billion yuan [4] - The trend of private acquisitions and the purchase of quality non-profitable assets has emerged, indicating a shift in M&A strategies [4][5] Group 4: Quality Improvement and Efficiency - By 2024, 946 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed "quality improvement and efficiency return" action plans, with nearly 60% participation [6] - Among the companies that disclosed plans, nearly 90% achieved profitability, and almost 50% reported performance growth [6] - The total cash dividend announced by 1,259 companies reached 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a dividend payout ratio of 39% [7] Group 5: ESG Reporting and Progress - In 2024, 1,068 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed ESG reports, achieving a disclosure rate of approximately 63%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The number of companies included in the MSCI ESG rating increased, with 90 companies receiving upgrades in their ratings [9] - Companies have actively engaged in social responsibility initiatives, contributing to employment and environmental sustainability [10] Group 6: Index Investment Growth - In 2024, net inflows into ETFs on the Shanghai main board reached nearly 840 billion yuan, with significant participation from foreign capital [11] - The trading volume of ETFs ranked first in Asia, with a total trading amount of nearly 30 trillion yuan [11] - Foreign investment preferences are concentrated in sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and public utilities, indicating a strategic focus on stable industries [12] Group 7: Exit Mechanisms and Risk Mitigation - Since 2025, 19 companies on the Shanghai main board have faced various forms of delisting, with a significant portion resulting from financial issues [13] - The introduction of diverse exit channels, including voluntary delisting and asset restructuring, has become more prominent [13] - Companies have actively taken measures to improve operations and mitigate risks, with several successfully lifting delisting warnings [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's core profit remains stable, and asset restructuring is progressing. The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decrease in total revenue by 1.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.64%. However, the core profit increased by 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7][8] - The company is advancing its privatization of New World Energy and plans to list in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance EPS and highlight integrated advantages. The privatization transaction is valued at HKD 599.24 billion, with a significant portion paid in shares and cash [7][8] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with projected cash dividends of at least CNY 1.03 and CNY 1.14 per share for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a dividend yield of 5.7% for 2025 [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of CNY 33.729 billion, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 0.976 billion, down 9.64% year-on-year. The core profit was CNY 1.083 billion, up 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The retail gas volume increased by 0.3%, while wholesale gas volume surged by 34.5%. Platform trading gas volume decreased by 1.4% [7] - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 5.147 billion, CNY 5.896 billion, and CNY 6.844 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.56%, 14.54%, and 16.08% [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 financial results, showing a slight decline in total revenue and net profit, while core profit experienced a marginal increase, indicating performance slightly below expectations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.44% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan, down 9.64% year-on-year [1]. - Core profit reached 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core operations [1]. Group 2: Gas Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s gas sales volume in Q1 2025 was 10.544 billion cubic meters, up 5.4% year-on-year, driven by a 34.5% increase in wholesale gas sales [2]. - Retail gas sales volume was 7.258 billion cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with residential gas sales growing by 1.1% [2]. - The company’s platform trading gas sales volume was 1.196 billion cubic meters, showing a minor decline of 1.4% year-on-year, while international trade volume increased by 1.21 billion cubic meters [2]. Group 3: LNG Processing and Energy Sales - The LNG processing volume at the Zhoushan receiving station reached 551,700 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.6% [3]. - The company’s comprehensive energy sales volume was 10.039 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - The company has 367 operational comprehensive energy projects with a total installed capacity of 6.25 GW, and 73 projects under construction with a capacity of 1.18 GW [3]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The privatization of New World Energy is progressing steadily, with asset restructuring expected to enhance shareholder returns [4]. - The company has updated financial data and is advancing through regulatory approvals for the privatization process [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to delays in long-term resource availability and the impact of a warm winter on retail gas growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Co., Ltd. reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but core profit showed a marginal increase, indicating resilience in its operations amidst market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 33.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year, aligning with Huatai's forecast of 925 to 1,023 million yuan [1] - Core profit for Q1 2025 was 1.083 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Platform Trading Gas - New contracts linked to oil prices were signed, with Q1 2025 platform trading gas volume at 1.196 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [2] - Domestic gas volume was 694 million cubic meters, down 17% year-on-year, while international gas volume increased by 32% to 501 million cubic meters [2] - The company added 46 new platform trading gas customers in Q1 2025, bringing the total to 617, which supports the expansion of trading gas scale [2] Group 3: Zhoushan Receiving Station - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume increased by 28.6% year-on-year to 551,700 tons in Q1 2025, with a quarterly capacity utilization rate of 29%, up 6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The station is expected to enhance its annual turnover capacity from 7.5 million tons to 10 million tons and storage capacity from 500 million cubic meters to over 1 billion cubic meters by the second half of 2025 [3] - Core profit from Zhoushan is projected to grow by 25% and 17% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] Group 4: Privatization and Valuation - The privatization plan is progressing normally, with the current stock price implying a potential discount of 41% for the company's H shares [3] - The company’s shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 28, 2025, where a two-thirds majority vote from independent shareholders is required to meet one of the transaction's preconditions [3] - The target price for the company is adjusted to 23.52 yuan, based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous target of 23.66 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 33.7 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.976 billion RMB, down 9.6% year-over-year. The core profit was 1.083 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year [1] - The company has signed new long-term contracts linked to oil prices, which is expected to optimize its resource pool structure. The Zhoushan receiving station has seen an increase in unloading volume and capacity utilization, highlighting its pivotal role [2][3] - The privatization transaction is progressing normally, with the current stock price implying a potential discount of 41% for the company's H shares, corresponding to an expected dividend yield of 5.7% for 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the platform trading gas volume was 1.196 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 1.4% year-over-year. Domestic gas volume decreased by 17% year-over-year, while international gas volume increased by 32% year-over-year. The company added 46 new platform trading gas customers, bringing the total to 617 [2] - The Zhoushan receiving station's unloading volume reached 551,700 tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 28.6% year-over-year, with a quarterly capacity utilization rate of 29%, up 6 percentage points year-over-year [3] Privatization and Valuation - The upcoming shareholders' meeting on May 28, 2025, will determine if the privatization transaction can proceed based on the approval of independent shareholders [4] - The report slightly adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, with core profits expected to be 5.215 billion RMB, 5.705 billion RMB, and 6.264 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over three years [5] Target Price and Market Comparison - The target price is set at 23.52 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 14x for 2025, compared to a sector average of 12.5x [5][9] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 61.477 billion RMB, with a closing price of 19.85 RMB as of April 25, 2025 [9]