Industry Overview - In 2024, the production of large-scale liquor enterprises is expected to reach 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is projected to increase to 796.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, indicating a unique trend of "declining volume but increasing profit" [2] - By the first half of 2025, 59.7% of liquor companies reported a decline in operating profit, and 50.9% experienced a contraction in revenue, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, up 10% year-on-year, highlighting significant challenges in the industry [2] Key Trends - The industry is witnessing a simultaneous trend of "contraction and concentration," with smaller companies exiting the market and leading firms shifting focus from "high-speed growth" to "steady development" [3] - A "channel revolution" is underway, with major companies moving towards direct consumer engagement through new sales channels like online platforms and instant retail, indicating a shift in power from distributors to brands [4] - Consumer demand is evolving, driven by younger consumers, leading to product upgrades towards lower alcohol content and diverse flavors, with major brands launching new products to cater to these trends [5] Company Performance - **Kweichow Moutai**: Aims for a 9% revenue growth by 2025, with a first-quarter revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, up 11.07%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56%, demonstrating strong execution of its strategic goals [6][7] - **Wuliangye**: Targets revenue growth in line with macroeconomic conditions, reporting a first-quarter revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, up 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80%, with ongoing channel reforms [6][8] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: Focuses on low-alcohol products, with a first-quarter revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, up 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41%, indicating a strong market position in lower alcohol segments [6][9] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: Reports a first-quarter revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, up 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15%, with ongoing efforts in national expansion and product innovation [6][10] - **Guojiao**: Achieves a first-quarter revenue of 5.099 billion yuan, up 9.17%, and a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27%, driven by a focus on the wedding market [6][12] Strategic Shifts - The industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," with companies focusing on refining existing markets rather than pursuing aggressive growth [17] - A shift from "channel-driven" to "consumer-driven" strategies is evident, with companies prioritizing direct consumer engagement and enhancing consumer experiences [18] - The trend is moving from "high alcohol content" to "low and diverse products," with major brands launching lower alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - Companies are increasingly emphasizing "long-term value" over short-term performance, with a focus on cultural branding and sustainable growth strategies [21] - The shift from "national expansion" to "regional deepening" is becoming a survival strategy for many companies, focusing on local market penetration and brand recognition [22][23]

Group 1 - Zhang Kun's funds under management reached 55.047 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, including four funds: E Fund Blue Chip Selection, E Fund Quality Selection, E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Holding, and E Fund Asia Selection [1] - In Q2 2025, significant portfolio changes included new positions in JD Health, increased holdings in SF Holding, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yum China, while reducing positions in Tencent Holdings, Yanghe Brewery, and Meituan [1] - The top ten holdings at the end of Q2 included Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, JD Health, SF Holding, and Yum China [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 Index rise by 1.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.26%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.34%, while the Hong Kong market experienced a 4.12% increase in the Hang Seng Index [2] - The real estate sector faced challenges, with new residential sales area and sales value declining by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, and real estate development investment down by 10.7% [2] - CPI showed negative growth for four consecutive months from February to May, indicating downward pressure on prices, while the stock market exhibited significant sector divergence [2] Group 3 - The company does not share the pessimistic outlook on domestic demand and economy, highlighting that per capita GDP still has room for growth compared to developed countries [3] - The company believes that the pessimistic expectations will eventually be broken, with a key indicator being the long-term bond yields aligning with economic growth prospects [3] - The company will continuously assess the competitiveness of its portfolio companies during economic downturns and their potential to strengthen their market position during recoveries [3]

金十图示：2025年07月21日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行板块全天表现低迷，能源、汽车板块集体 收涨 富时中国A50指数连续 -0.03(-0.53%) +0.04(+0.47%) -0.08(-0.68%) 光大银行 2522.95亿市值 6.05亿成交额 4.27 -0.03(-0.70%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 帆 3723.66亿市值 3526.82亿市值 10414.43亿市值 15.20亿成交额 26.71亿成交额 5.53亿成交额 36.66 57.19 8.42 -0.43(-1.16%) +0.12(+0.21%) +0.03(+0.36%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18126.93亿市值 2199.47亿市值 4757.30亿市值 37.80亿成交额 23.04亿成交额 16.64亿成交额 180.29 1443.00 122.56 +6.00(+0.42%) -1.22(-0.99%) -0.81(-0.45%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2309.49亿市值 2434.80亿市值 3176.67亿市值 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, managing funds at E Fund, has made significant adjustments in the second quarter, notably increasing positions in liquor stocks while reducing holdings in Tencent Holdings. He emphasizes that the timing of market changes is less important than understanding what will happen in the future [1][11]. Fund Adjustments - The top ten holdings of E Fund have seen notable changes, with new additions including JD Health and SF Holding, while Meituan-W and Yanghe Brewery have exited the top ten [2][3]. - The fund has primarily reduced its stake in Tencent Holdings, while increasing positions in several liquor stocks, including Wuliangye and Moutai [3][5]. Holdings Data - As of the end of Q2, the fund's total holdings in Tencent Holdings decreased by 9.33%, while holdings in Wuliangye increased by 9.81%, and in Luzhou Laojiao by 27.93% [4]. - The fund's total assets under management decreased to below 20 billion shares, with a scale of approximately 349 billion yuan [1]. Market Outlook - Zhang Kun believes that the current valuations of the companies in the portfolio reflect expectations of future profit declines. He asserts that low valuations combined with substantial shareholder returns are attractive for long-term investors [11][12]. - He expresses confidence in the potential for economic growth, suggesting that the pessimistic outlook on domestic demand and the economy is unwarranted. He anticipates that market forces and technological advancements will contribute to sustained economic growth [11][12].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance with banks and insurance sectors declining, while energy and automotive sectors mostly advanced [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 252.295 billion with a trading volume of 391 million, experiencing a slight decline of 0.03 (-0.70%) [3]. Insurance Sector - Key insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 369.27 billion, 349.31 billion, and 1,037.255 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.066 billion, 1.782 billion, and 0.345 billion. They experienced declines of 0.78 (-2.10%), 0.11 (-0.19%), and 0.04 (-0.48%) [3]. Alcohol Industry - Leading companies in the alcohol sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, had market capitalizations of 1,811.450 billion, 218.056 billion, and 475.070 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.287 billion, 1.577 billion, and 0.913 billion. Kweichow Moutai saw a slight increase of 5.01 (+0.35%), while the others faced declines [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Notable semiconductor firms like North Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon reported market capitalizations of 231.057 billion, 244.680 billion, and 317.063 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.070 billion, 2.435 billion, and 1.138 billion. North Huachuang experienced a decline of 4.99 (-1.53%) [3]. Oil Industry - Major players in the oil sector, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and China Railway, had market capitalizations of 273.495 billion, 715.347 billion, and 1,634.377 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 0.732 billion, 0.426 billion, and 0.427 billion. Sinopec saw an increase of 0.08 (+1.37%) [3]. Coal Industry - Companies like Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 749.639 billion and 189.440 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 0.536 billion and 0.911 billion. Shenhua Energy reported an increase of 0.33 (+0.88%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD, a leading automotive manufacturer, had a market capitalization of 1,827.526 billion with a trading volume of 2.984 billion, experiencing an increase of 3.49 (+1.06%) [3]. Securities Sector - Major securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan reported market capitalizations of 425.350 billion and 347.129 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.668 billion and 1.636 billion. CITIC Securities saw an increase of 0.36 (+1.27%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Companies like Hon Hai Precision Industry and Luxshare Precision reported market capitalizations of 534.617 billion and 276.157 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.553 billion and 2.572 billion. Hon Hai experienced a decline of 0.19 (-0.70%) [4]. Home Appliances - Leading home appliance firms such as Haier Smart Home and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 266.739 billion and 243.580 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 0.713 billion and 0.309 billion. Haier reported a decline of 0.26 (-0.54%) [4]. Pharmaceutical Sector - Major pharmaceutical companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Muyuan Foods had market capitalizations of 255.221 billion and 384.958 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.833 billion and 1.230 billion. Heng Rui experienced a decline of 0.76 (-1.29%) [4].

Core Viewpoint - E Fund's report indicates a stable stock position in its largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection, with adjustments in consumer and technology sectors, highlighting the attractiveness of undervalued stocks with substantial shareholder returns for long-term investors [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - E Fund Blue Chip Selection maintained a stable stock position in Q2, with adjustments made to the structure of consumer and technology sectors [1] - The fund continues to hold high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns, and strong competitiveness [1] Group 2: Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2, the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chip Selection include Tencent Holdings, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Alibaba-W, JD Health, Yum China, CNOOC, and SF Holding [1] - Compared to the end of Q1, JD Health and SF Holding entered the top ten holdings, while Yanghe Brewery and Meituan-W exited [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [5][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a shift from short-term explosive growth in instant retail to a more normalized layout, indicating a stabilization in the market dynamics [5][7]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing inventory adjustments, with companies taking measures to stabilize prices amid increasing industry pressures [5][6]. - The new consumption sector is expected to see a reduction in aggressive subsidy wars, but competition will remain a constant factor [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In June, the manufacturing value added of the liquor and tea industry grew by 3.4% year-on-year [17]. - The production of white liquor from January to June reached 1.916 million kiloliters [17]. - The China Chain Store and Franchise Association issued a statement against "involution" competition in instant retail [17]. Company News - Water井坊 reported a 13% decrease in total revenue for H1 2025, with a net profit drop of 57% [5]. - 酒鬼酒 expects a net profit of 0.08-0.12 billion yuan for H1 2025, down 90%-93% year-on-year [5]. - Guizhou Moutai launched its first live broadcast on Douyin for Moutai sauce-flavored liquor [17]. Investment Insights - The white liquor sector is seeing low valuations, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks and increasing dividends, indicating potential for future capital inflows [5]. - The mass consumer goods sector is facing profit pressure due to cost fluctuations, with companies like洽洽食品 and 甘源食品 reporting significant declines in net profits [6]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumption opportunities, particularly in tea and chain dining [8]. Key Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report emphasizes companies such as 泸州老窖, 古井贡酒, and 贵州茅台, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [10][12]. - The beverage market is expected to benefit from changes in retail channels, with companies like 沪上阿姨 and 茶百道 highlighted for their growth strategies [8][10].

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic view on the market's ability to continue breaking through, driven by strong risk appetite and multiple signals supporting market upward momentum [8][9][10] - Key sectors showing strong performance include construction materials, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and household appliances, with high-growth sectors identified as media, agriculture, construction materials, transportation, and non-bank financials [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of the TMT sector, particularly AI hardware and gaming, as significant drivers of market interest and investment [8][9] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the potential of the low-altitude economy, with significant developments in eVTOL aircraft and related infrastructure, supported by government policies and local initiatives [53][54] - Companies like Xiaopeng Heavens and Times Technology are noted for their recent financing and order achievements, indicating strong market interest and growth potential in the low-altitude sector [53][54] - The report suggests that the low-altitude economy is experiencing a comprehensive rollout from macro to micro levels, with various applications being tested and developed [53][54] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with slowing retail sales growth, particularly in the restaurant and alcohol segments, due to external factors such as subsidy controls and strict regulations [56] - Despite the pressures, there are opportunities for investment in leading liquor companies as valuations have reached low points, suggesting potential for recovery in the second half of the year [56] - The report indicates that the overall consumer demand needs to be stimulated, with a focus on the clearing of livestock and new demand drivers [56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic demand still needs to be boosted, with a focus on the clearing of pastures and new demand momentum [3][4] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.7% from July 14 to July 18, ranking 13th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points [11][13] - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [3][11] - The restaurant and catering revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and a decline of 0.4%, indicating significant pressure on restaurant consumption [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 0.7% increase, ranking 13th among sectors [11][13] - Sub-sectors such as soft drinks (+2.0%), dairy products (+1.2%), and liquor (+0.9%) performed relatively well [11][13] Upstream Data - The price of whole milk powder in the GDT auction on July 15 was $3,928 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% [18][22] - The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [18][22] Recommendations - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares [5] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and emphasize sustainable development despite short-term demand pressure [5] - Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, with product structure upgrades and accelerated national expansion [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The rotation between old and new consumption sectors continues, with leading brands in liquor and dairy products rebounding. The performance of mass-market products in Q2 shows divergence, with new consumption-related stocks experiencing rapid growth despite previous adjustments in performance expectations. Traditional channel reforms have impacted some stocks, leading to ongoing adjustments in performance [1][3][33] - The liquor sector is expected to have limited downside potential for leading companies, with high ROE, dividends, and cautious profit assumptions indicating a valuation floor. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][12] - New consumption trends are anticipated to continue, with potential for recovery in the second half of the year. Focus on low-priced or undervalued stocks with future catalysts, including Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [1][3][33] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with a focus on potential policy catalysts and rebound opportunities. Leading brands with strong market positions are prioritized for investment. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][12] - Recent performance shows a positive trend, with Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Jiu Gui Jiu leading in gains, while Jinzhidao and Huangtai Jiuye faced declines [5][39] Mass-Market Products - The new consumption paradigm is reshaping the food and beverage investment landscape. Despite a recent pullback, the long-term trend remains positive, with clear opportunities for continued investment. Focus on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [3][33] - The mass-market sector has seen significant fluctuations, with stocks like Huangshi Group and Guoquan showing strong gains, while stocks like Ganyuan and Gu Ming faced notable declines [39][42] Performance Metrics - From July 14 to July 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, with non-dairy beverages and liquor sectors showing gains of 2.16% and 1.30%, respectively. Conversely, frozen foods and snacks experienced declines of 2.26% and 1.10% [39][40] - The valuation levels for the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the liquor sector showing the highest valuation increase this week [43]