Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry is expected to see a full risk release by 2025, with a dual improvement in supply and demand anticipated in 2026. Short-term sales are expected to improve, particularly during the Spring Festival, while medium-term recovery in sales, pricing, and financial reports is also expected [2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the EU's anti-subsidy measures, which are likely to accelerate domestic replacements in deep processing, particularly in the dairy sector. This is expected to create opportunities in the food sector as companies prepare for the Spring Festival [4][8]. - The beer sector is experiencing a slight decline in major markets like China and the US, but global beer consumption is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2024, indicating a potential for recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report discusses the proactive measures taken by leading liquor companies to optimize supply and enhance sales channels. Notable companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on product structure and market innovation [2]. - The report suggests that companies such as Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe Brewery are well-positioned for short-term recovery due to supply improvements and strong brand positioning [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Global beer consumption is projected to reach approximately 19.41 billion liters in 2024, with a slight increase despite declines in major markets [3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in Thailand by Xiangpiaopiao is noted as a strategic move to enhance overseas business development [3]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products will likely benefit domestic producers, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [4][8]. - Companies like Yili and Anjoy Foods are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market expansion driven by these policy changes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy market in China is experiencing significant changes amid market fluctuations, with a contraction in demand and increased competition among major players [1][2][17]. Market Overview - The liquid milk industry in China is projected to reach a scale of 344.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.2% from 2022 to 2024, following a previous CAGR of 7.2% from 2011 to 2021 [1]. - In September 2025, the overall sales of dairy products across all channels saw a year-on-year decline of 16.8% [1]. Company Performance - In Q3, Yili's revenue decreased by 1.7% to 28.631 billion yuan, while Mengniu's revenue fell by 6.9% to 41.567 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3][6]. - Yili's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 1.71% to 90.564 billion yuan, but its net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan [6]. - Yili's liquid milk revenue declined by 4.49% to 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a significant drop of 8.83% in Q3 [6]. Competitive Landscape - The market is undergoing a period of adjustment, with intensified price competition due to weakened demand [7][8]. - Yili has maintained a relatively stable position in the market despite fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a healthy industry ecosystem rather than engaging in aggressive price wars [8]. - In the ambient milk sector, Yili and Mengniu maintain a duopoly with a combined market share of 87%, where Yili holds 48% and Mengniu 39% [8]. Product Segmentation - Yili's milk powder and dairy products revenue increased by 13.7% to 24.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters, driven by double-digit growth in infant formula sales [8]. - The infant formula market is competitive, with Yili claiming the top market share, while competitors like Feihe are experiencing revenue declines [9][11]. Regional Dynamics - The low-temperature milk market is highly competitive, with Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% [12]. - Regional dairy companies are facing increasing pressure, with companies like Guangming Dairy and San Yuan experiencing revenue declines, while New Dairy and Junlebao are expanding [13][14]. Strategic Developments - New Dairy has achieved significant growth through acquisitions and is focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in its home market of Chengdu [14]. - Junlebao is expanding its production capacity and has initiated an IPO process, indicating a strategic push for growth [16]. Future Opportunities - The dairy industry still presents structural opportunities, including the potential to tap into specialized nutrition markets and expand internationally [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) as the initial coverage [2]. Core Insights - Yili Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry, demonstrating strong operational resilience during industry adjustments. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.2%, 3.7%, and 3.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 27.9%, 14.8%, and 8.7% for the same years [5][9]. - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a retail scale projected to reach approximately 560 billion yuan in 2024. Yili's product matrix includes liquid milk as a base, with milk powder and dairy products, as well as ice cream, driving growth [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Yili Co., Ltd. are 118.37 billion yuan in 2025, 122.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 127.14 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 10.82 billion yuan, 12.42 billion yuan, and 13.50 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34.4% in 2025 to 35.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue is projected to stabilize at 750.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 0.1% [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues of 326.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [5]. - The ice cream business is anticipated to recover with double-digit growth, reaching revenues of 96.8 billion yuan in 2025, a 11% increase [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a "long-life milk leader" to a "platform dairy enterprise," actively expanding its product categories to mitigate risks associated with liquid milk demand [5][6]. - The company has established a robust national distribution network with over 5 million terminal points, enhancing its competitive edge across various product lines [6]. Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rebound in demand for infant formula due to increased birth rates in 2024 is expected to benefit Yili as a market leader in this segment [9]. - The adult nutrition market is expanding, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, providing further growth opportunities for Yili [9]. - The company's strategy in deep processing and high-margin B-end markets is expected to unlock additional revenue streams [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural opportunities arising from the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products, which are expected to benefit domestic alternatives such as cheese and cream [50]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumption, with expectations of continued pressure on sales in the fourth quarter and first quarter of the following year, but a potential rebound in the second quarter due to low base effects [50][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels ahead of the Spring Festival and the operational goals set by various liquor companies for the upcoming year [51]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other regional brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Guojiao Liquor (000596) [51]. - The report notes that approximately 87% of stocks in the food and beverage sector recorded positive returns during the review period, with notable performers including Anji Food (+27.96%) and Huanlejia (+20.94%) [15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 12 to December 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.66 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the baking sector showing the highest increase of 7.63% [13]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1575 RMB/bottle, while Guojiao 1573 decreased to 840 RMB/bottle [21]. - **Condiments Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar decreased, with soybean prices at 4288.90 RMB/ton [24]. - **Beer Sector**: Aluminum prices increased while glass and corrugated paper prices decreased; barley prices remained stable at 2200.00 RMB/ton [29]. - **Dairy Sector**: Fresh milk prices rose slightly to 3.03 RMB/kg [37]. - **Meat Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 17.44 RMB/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 22.04% [39]. Important News - The report discusses the preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy measures for EU dairy imports, which is expected to positively impact domestic dairy producers [44][45]. - It also notes a decline in the production of white liquor and beer in November, with white liquor production down 11.3% year-on-year [43]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to at least 75% of its net profit for the years 2024-2026, alongside a share buyback plan [52]. - Haitian Flavoring plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% of its net profit for the next three years [48].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 乔元饮品 | 26.60 | -2.28% | 5.66万 | 1.51亿 | | 300915 | 海融科技 | 24.42 | -2.16% | 1.17万 | 2875.51万 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | 5.42 | -1.81% | 40.57万 | 2.21亿 | | 600882 | 妙可蓝多 | 26.93 | -1.64% | 7.79万 | 2.11亿 | | 605300 | 佳木食品 | 12.00 | -1.64% | 4.08万 | 4921.46万 | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | 268.33 | -1.39% | 1.19万 | 3.20亿 | | 300892 | 品屋食品 | 31.75 | -1.34% | 2.89万 | 9226.72万 | | 605337 | 李子园 | 12.12 | -1.30% | 4.83万 | 5892.31万 | | 605388 | 均 ...

公司于2025年12月26日接到股东呼和浩特投资有限责任公司函告， 获悉其所持有本公司的部分股份质押及解除质押，具体情况如下： 一、股份质押情况 | 股东 名称 | 是否为 控股股东 | 本次质押 股数（股） | 是否为 限售股 （如是， 注明限 售类型） | 是否 补充 质押 | 质押 起始日 | 质押 到期日 | 质权人 | 占其所 持股份 比例 （%） | 占公司 总股本 比例 （%） | 质押融 资资金 用途 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 呼和浩特 投资有限 责任公司 | 否 | 20,810,000 | 否 | 否 | 2025年12 月 24 日 | 2026 年 12 月 23 日 | 中国银河 证券股份 有限公司 | 3.86 | 0.33 | 生产 经营 | | 合计 | / | 20,810,000 | / | / | / | / | / | 3.86 | 0.33 | / | 1、本次股份质押基本情况 2、本次质押股份不涉及用作重大资产重组业绩补偿等事项的担保或 证券代码：6 ...

伊利股份公告称，2025年12月24日，股东呼和浩特投资有限责任公司质押2081万股，占其所持股份 3.86%，占公司总股本0.33%，质权人为中国银河证券，资金用于生产经营；12月25日，该股东解除质 押2100万股，占其所持股份3.90%，占公司总股本0.33%。截至12月26日，该股东持有公司股份 538,535,826股，占总股本8.51%，累计质押205,380,000股，占其所持股份38.14%，占公司总股本 3.25%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government has increased its emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with multiple policies coordinated to promote the construction of the domestic economic cycle and the domestic demand system [2][7][8] - It is expected that the year-on-year pork price will gradually turn positive in the second half of 2026, which will support the CPI, especially the food CPI [2][14][20] - The CSI All-China Food Index selects leading companies in the food industry, with high price elasticity, strong offensive ability, and long - term stable excess return potential. Currently, the valuation of the food sector has bottomed out, and the medium - to - long - term allocation cost - effectiveness is prominent [2][22][50] - The Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF closely tracks the CSI All - China Food Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error [2][52] Summary According to the Directory 1. Policy Emphasizes Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption, Focus on Investment Opportunities in the Food Sector - **Policy Attention Increased: Boosting Consumption and Expanding Domestic Demand** - Multiple policies are coordinated to promote the domestic economic cycle and the construction of the domestic demand system. Since December, authoritative media and high - level authorities have continuously emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the significance of boosting consumption [2][7][8] - The "Qiushi" magazine pointed out that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move related to economic stability and security. The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year, and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the firm implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand [2][9][13] - **Expected Gradual Recovery of Pork Prices, Focus on Food CPI Changes in 2026** - Since the second half of 2022, the CPI has been continuously declining and has been hovering at a low level since 2025, suppressing the contribution of prices to the profits of mass consumer goods [2][14] - Although the CPI was at a low level in 2025, the demand for dairy products showed signs of stabilization. The retail prices of milk and yogurt ended a three - year decline in the second half of 2025 [17][19] - Due to the structural surplus of production capacity and low breeding costs, the year - on - year decline in pork prices has widened since the second half of 2025. It is expected that the year - on - year pork price will gradually turn positive in the second half of next year, supporting the CPI, especially the food CPI [20][21] 2. CSI All - China Food Index - **Index Compilation: Selecting Leading Food Industry Companies** - The CSI All - China Food Index was released on July 15, 2013. It selects all listed company securities belonging to the tertiary "Food" industry from the CSI All - China sample space, aiming to comprehensively reflect the overall performance of A - share food industry listed company securities [22][25][26] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, with a single sample weight limit of 10% [26] - **Industry Market Value Characteristics: Industry Concentrated in the Primary Consumption Sector, with a Market Value Pattern Dominated by Leading Companies** - As of December 18, 2025, the index has 79 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of 1.6575 billion yuan. There are 3 stocks with a market value exceeding 10 billion yuan, and more than half of the constituent stocks have a total market value of less than 1 billion yuan [27][30][33] - The top ten constituent stocks have a total weight of 50.4%, and the top three weighted stocks are Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd., Haitian Flavoring & Food Co., Ltd., and Shuanghui Development Co., Ltd., with weights of 10.52%, 9.05%, and 6.05% respectively [30][31][33] - The index is concentrated in the food sub - industries, especially in the seasoning fermentation products II, food processing, and beverage dairy sectors, with a combined proportion of over 64%, highly focusing on the food field directly facing consumers [33][34][39] - **High Index Volatility and Strong Offensive Ability** - Historically, the index has shown a clear offensive ability, especially in the market driven by the consumption sector, with long - term stable excess return potential. It also has significant high elasticity, with higher volatility and drawdown than the market broad - based index [40][42][45] - In the long run, the index has shown stable income growth ability, with a cumulative return and annualized return of 256.10% and 8.87% respectively, exceeding the performance of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI All - China Index during the same period, reflecting the long - term allocation value of the core assets in the consumption industry [42][43] - **The Valuation of the Food Sector has Bottomed Out, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Allocation Cost - Effectiveness is Prominent** - As of December 18, 2025, the price - to - earnings ratio of the index is 31.52, with a historical quantile of 22.26%, and the price - to - book ratio is 2.85, with a historical quantile of 5.32% [50][51][52] - The index has experienced an adjustment since the high in late 2020, and recently shows signs of stabilization, with limited downside risk [50] 3. Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF - The Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF (fund code: 159151) closely tracks the CSI All - China Food Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error. The fund started raising funds on December 22, 2025, and ended on December 26, 2025, with fund manager Wang Xinwei [2][52][55]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company discussed in the conference call is Yili Group, a leading dairy producer in China, focusing on liquid milk, milk powder, and other dairy products. Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The dairy industry is expected to see growth driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in raw milk and a recovery in consumer demand, particularly for liquid milk in 2026 [2][5] - The liquid milk channel inventory is currently below 20 days, indicating a healthy level [7] - The competition in the market is easing due to improved supply-demand relationships and the introduction of high-quality products by the company [8] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 90.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [3] - The liquid milk market share remained stable, with the ambient yogurt market share increasing to 70% [3] - The company aims for double-digit growth in its infant formula business in 2025, with an increase in market share [4][20] Product Strategy - The company is adjusting its product mix, with basic white milk performing better than high-end products, although there is still a market for functional and organic high-end products [2][9] - Low-temperature yogurt is experiencing growth through product innovation and expansion into new consumption scenarios [10] - The company plans to introduce higher-end products such as cheese yogurt and Greek yogurt to cater to mid-to-high-end consumer demands [10][11] Deep Processing Business - The deep processing business is in its early stages but has significant potential for high-value products [13] - The company aims to achieve 10 billion yuan in revenue from deep processing within five years, focusing on products like milk powder and dairy fats [13] Future Outlook - The company expects the raw material supply-demand situation to improve further, which will benefit large dairy enterprises by enhancing sales efficiency and gross margins [12] - The company is committed to maintaining a cash dividend ratio of no less than 75% of net profit [5] Channel and Sales Strategy - The company is addressing channel fragmentation by diversifying its approach and enhancing online-offline integration [23] - New emerging channels, such as discount stores and membership stores, are growing faster than traditional channels, with new channels accounting for about 30% of liquid milk sales [24] Adult Nutrition and Infant Formula - The adult nutrition segment, particularly adult milk powder, is projected to grow, with plans to expand into other nutritional products [22] - The infant formula business has seen double-digit growth, driven by new product introductions and market share gains [21] Strategic Planning - The company has outlined a five-year strategic plan focusing on maintaining strong performance in core businesses while expanding into high-growth areas such as adult nutrition, cheese, and international markets [27] Additional Insights - The company is leveraging digital tools to optimize inventory and respond flexibly to demand changes, particularly in preparation for the upcoming Spring Festival [6] - The company is also exploring opportunities in the high-end market segment, driven by increasing consumer health awareness [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market dynamics, and financial performance.

新京报贝壳财经：中央经济工作会议提出持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发 展新质生产力，对此，伊利集团会有哪些具体举措？ 刘春喜：首先，继续坚守"伊利即品质"的企业信条，不断完善行业领先的品质管理体系；其次，继续坚 持"以消费者为中心"，持续提升消费者产品与服务满意度；第三，持续积极开展营销创新、加强品牌建 设，持续提升品牌力；第四，持续推进精益管理，降低成本，提升供应链效率；第五，继续围绕产品创 新、营销、供应链等价值链环节，加快数智化转型；第六，持续开拓海外市场，稳步推进国际化业务； 最后，持续提升公司可持续发展管理能力，实现社会价值与商业价值的同步提升。 新京报贝壳财经：2026年，伊利集团在业绩增长、产品创新、业务线等方面有何战略发展目标？ 当时间的刻度指向2026，一个崭新的五年征程即将启幕。 此刻，我们立足承前启后的交汇点，"十四五"即将圆满收官。回顾2025年，在多重压力之下，中国经济 再次走过了"很不平凡"的一年，并展现出强大韧性和活力，成就奠定坚实基础。 刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议深刻指出，做好明年经济工作，要"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"，在政策取 向上，"要坚持稳中求进、提 ...