Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - Wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly stabilized, with specific brands showing varied price changes. For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1600 yuan, down by 50 yuan from last month, while the price of Wuliangye has increased by 20 yuan to 820 yuan [3][38]. - Discounts on liquid milk have significantly increased, while discounts on seasoning and soft drink products have narrowed compared to the end of November. The average discount rate for seasonings rose from 85.9% to 87.1%, and for soft drinks from 85.6% to 86.7% [5][17][35]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The report details the wholesale prices of key Baijiu brands, noting that Feitian Moutai's prices have decreased by 640 yuan year-to-date compared to the previous year. Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have also shown price stability or slight increases [9][38]. Discount Trends - Discounts on liquid milk products have widened, with the average discount rate dropping from 66.0% to 62.8%. In contrast, discounts on convenience foods have decreased from 95.8% to 94.8% [19][21][36]. - The report highlights that infant formula and beer products have maintained stable discount rates, with slight changes observed [18][35]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating strong expected performance relative to the market [1].

Core Insights - The financial structure of American consumers is under significant strain, with 37% unable to handle a $400 emergency, indicating a precarious financial situation despite seemingly high incomes [2][8] - In contrast, Chinese consumers exhibit a more flexible spending structure, with a higher proportion of disposable income available for discretionary spending, leading to different consumption behaviors [7][13] Group 1: American Consumer Spending - In the U.S., consumer spending is largely driven by obligations, with essential expenses like housing, transportation, and healthcare consuming over 70% of income, leaving little room for discretionary spending [5][6] - The rising costs of healthcare are particularly burdensome, with average family insurance premiums reaching $26,993 annually, which can significantly impact disposable income [5][6] - The perception of strong consumer spending in the U.S. is misleading, as much of it is tied to rigid expenses rather than discretionary choices [6][8] Group 2: Chinese Consumer Spending - Chinese consumers have a more balanced spending structure, with only 50-55% of income tied to essential expenses, allowing for greater flexibility in discretionary spending [7][8] - Recent data shows that while physical goods consumption is weakening, service consumption is on the rise, indicating a shift in consumer priorities towards experiences rather than ownership [9][12] - The high savings rate in China, estimated at 32.4%, provides a buffer for consumers, allowing them to wait for compelling reasons to spend rather than being forced to spend due to obligations [8][15] Group 3: Investment Implications - Companies reliant on impulsive spending may face challenges as consumers become more budget-conscious, while those with stable cash flows and strong user engagement may be undervalued in the current market [10][11] - Certain sectors, such as experience-based consumption and value-driven products, are likely to benefit from the current consumer behavior shift, as consumers prioritize spending on experiences and affordable options [11][12] - The distinction between passive market declines and active consumer retrenchment is crucial for investment strategies, as the latter may indicate potential for recovery given the substantial savings available [9][13]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：4A广告门 还记得前段时间我们说过： 后续来了： 伊利市场部真的去请人了！ 网友向伊利提案"马年营销就找马伊琍"吗？ 要不怎么说，这届网友都是咱互联网人脉呢！ 论吃瓜，比官号还靠谱—— 那头官方还在评论区里上蹿下跳； 这头已有网友成功打入品牌内部： 图源：小红书@奶牛小哞 咱就是说，这第一视角的与会感，跟亲自在场有什么区别！ 也不用管官方啥时候官宣了—— 海报都扒出来了，可见伊利真把网友的话当事儿办。 这波市场部上大分！ 创意来源如图所示，问：网友为何感到兴奋？ ▼ 图源：小红书@梭子蟹蟹 因为品牌和代言人契合度太高了啊！ 高到仅仅是把两个名字相提并论，就能让人叹一句"天选"； 高到人人试想一下合作后的可能玩法，都能发现"自己是个天才"。 再瞅瞅这海报，内容不多，但传递的信息量极大—— 首先，它证明了伊利官方非常听劝。 这不仅指品牌听到了大众呼声，还指其听懂了网友兴奋点。 在这种全民颅内高潮的氛围下， 请马伊琍来代言，已经不再是给品牌自己找乐子，而是在满足全民情绪价值。 其次，它展现了品牌营销有自己的想法。 之前网友一直猜测伊利马 ...

Industry Dynamics - The 2025 version of the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries" has been released, effective from February 2026, promoting foreign investment in the health industry, particularly in the central and northeastern regions of China [1] - A total investment of 377 million yuan has been initiated for the modern sheep milk industry park project, aiming to create a closed-loop industrial chain, with the first phase expected to be operational by November next year [2] - The 2025 Hurun China Food Industry Top 100 list includes 11 dairy companies and 3 health food companies, with notable growth in the cheese business of Miaokelando, which saw a 63% increase in value [3] Brand Dynamics - Yili Group's Jin Hao factory has received a "five-star" rating for on-site management from the China Quality Association, marking it as the first dairy factory in China to achieve this recognition [4] - Jianhe Group has signed a new strategic cooperation agreement with JD Health, targeting a combined business goal of 10 billion yuan over the next three years, covering various nutrition brands [5] - Mengniu has launched the "Inner Mongolia Flavor" 2026 plan, showcasing innovative products and aiming to promote domestic raw material substitution in the dairy industry [6] Channel Dynamics - Gao Ge Dairy has initiated the "Student Nutrition Service Station" strategy to address declining foot traffic in traditional maternal and infant channels, targeting families with children aged 3-15 [7] - ThaiBev is shifting its strategic focus towards dairy products and soft drinks, planning to invest in expanding its halal dairy production base in Malaysia as part of its 2030 strategy [8] - Kidswant Ultra has opened its first store in Beijing, integrating cultural elements and popular global IPs to establish a competitive edge in the market [9] - The "Xiaofeixiang" Sichuan-Chongqing branch has been launched, marking a significant step in deepening regional market penetration and resource integration [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Group (stock code: 600887) [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival stocking season [1] - The report highlights that the company is positioned to gain from the implementation of temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products, which may enhance domestic product competitiveness [5] - The company is also likely to benefit from ongoing government support for childbirth, which is expected to boost milk powder consumption [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth of 2.1% in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.9% in 2027, with net profit growth projected at 32.5%, 7.8%, and 7.0% respectively [5] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million CNY)**: - 2024A: 115,780 - 2025E: 118,264 - 2026E: 122,993 - 2027E: 127,731 - **Net Profit Forecast (in million CNY)**: - 2024A: 8,453 - 2025E: 11,200 - 2026E: 12,079 - 2027E: 12,930 - **EPS Forecast (in CNY)**: - 2024A: 1.34 - 2025E: 1.77 - 2026E: 1.91 - 2027E: 2.04 - **PE Ratio**: - 2024A: 21.78 - 2025E: 16.43 - 2026E: 15.24 - 2027E: 14.24 [2][6][7] Market Data - The closing price of Yili Group's A-shares as of December 26, 2025, was CNY 29.10, with a market capitalization of CNY 183.2 billion [3]

Group 1 - The dairy sector experienced a decline of 1.90%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies like Miaokelan Duo, Huangshi Group, and Nanjiao Foods [1][2] - Among the dairy stocks, four companies saw price increases, with Wancheng Group, Ketaobiology, and Xinnong Development rising by 0.91%, 0.66%, and 0.27% respectively [1] - The dairy sector faced a net outflow of 424 million yuan from main funds, with 28 stocks experiencing net outflows, and six stocks seeing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top net outflow was from Yili Group, with a net outflow of 69.81 million yuan, followed by Huangshi Group, Miaokelan Duo, and Sanyuan Group with outflows of 61.06 million yuan, 48.80 million yuan, and 41.81 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Dabeinong, Yantang Dairy, and Xinnong Development, with inflows of 12.67 million yuan, 0.38 million yuan, and 0.21 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The dairy sector's performance was contrasted with other sectors, such as PEEK materials and carbon fiber, which saw gains of 3.23% and 2.52% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The short drama "Rebirth 90" reflects the evolution of China's dairy industry over the past two decades, showcasing how technological advancements and a focus on animal welfare have transformed dairy farming into a scientific endeavor, ultimately restoring consumer confidence in domestic milk products [3][9][10]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The narrative illustrates the shift from traditional dairy farming practices to a more scientific approach, emphasizing precision nutrition and animal welfare, which are now integral to the industry [3][6][16]. - The character Yin Lili's journey symbolizes the broader transformation of the Chinese dairy industry, highlighting the importance of innovation and professional expertise in driving industry standards [4][12]. - The industry has made significant strides in improving milk quality and safety, with Chinese dairy products now meeting or exceeding international standards in key quality metrics [17][22]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The introduction of advanced feeding techniques, such as the "Eight Dishes and One Soup" nutritional plan, represents a paradigm shift in dairy farming, focusing on the health and well-being of dairy cows [6][16]. - The use of automation and genetic selection in breeding programs has enhanced the productivity and health of dairy cattle, contributing to the overall improvement of the industry [14][16]. - The implementation of rigorous quality control measures, including real-time monitoring and standardized milking processes, has elevated the safety and quality of Chinese milk products [17][20]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Brand Storytelling - The drama serves as a vehicle for promoting "National Milk Confidence," effectively communicating the advancements in the dairy industry to a younger audience through engaging storytelling [20][22]. - By leveraging modern narrative techniques, the industry aims to reshape public perception and build trust in domestic dairy products, moving away from historical narratives of struggle to a focus on achievements and future aspirations [20][22]. - The emphasis on transparency and consumer engagement through innovative marketing strategies reflects the industry's commitment to fostering a positive image and enhancing brand loyalty [18][20].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant shift in milk consumption in China, where despite low lactose tolerance, Chinese people now consume over a quarter of the world's milk. This change is analyzed through various factors beyond modernization and Western dietary influences [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Influences - Post-World War II food systems, particularly U.S. food aid, altered dietary habits in Asia, including China, laying the groundwork for increased milk consumption [3]. - The 1980s saw European milk exports to China, which, along with multinational companies like Nestlé establishing production facilities, contributed to the expansion of milk and dairy products in East Asia [3][4]. - Government support for dairy industry projects, including land reforms and financial incentives, has led to a significant increase in milk production, transforming milk from a luxury to a common beverage [3][4]. Group 2: Medicalization and Marketing - The marketing strategies of dairy and pharmaceutical companies have created health narratives around milk, such as "insufficient breast milk" and "picky eating," which have driven consumer demand [4][8]. - The collaboration between global capital, state policies, and commercial medicine has intertwined to elevate milk consumption in daily diets, marking a profound dietary transformation [4][8]. Group 3: Cultural and Traditional Aspects - Traditional Chinese dietary practices have historically been distant from milk consumption, but recent decades have seen a surge in daily milk intake, influenced by both nutritional awareness and modern marketing [7][8]. - The unique water buffalo milk production in regions like Shunde reflects local culinary traditions, which have been affected by economic changes and modern consumer preferences [10][11]. Group 4: Modern Consumption Trends - In Hong Kong, the low breastfeeding rates and the rise of formula milk consumption reflect a complex interplay of modern parenting ideals and societal pressures [13][14]. - The perception of milk as a necessary dietary component has led to the medicalization of lactose intolerance, framing it as an abnormality rather than a natural condition [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the cyclical direction, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the recent emphasis from authoritative media and high-level officials on the importance of domestic demand, which is crucial for the industry [7]. - Despite a recent pullback in the high-end liquor sector, the report anticipates a recovery in sales and pricing balance in the upcoming quarters, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, followed by stabilization in Q2 and a potential turning point in Q3 [7][8]. - The report suggests that high-quality liquor companies are currently in a strategic allocation phase, with recommendations for specific brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [7][8]. - For the consumer goods sector, the report identifies systemic opportunities, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year [7][10]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with the liquor segment down by 0.20%, underperforming the broader market [6]. - The report notes that the top gainers included Anji Food (+29.65%) and Xichuan Food (+9%), while the biggest losers were Huanlejia (-16.35%) and Zhuangyuan Pasture (-13.19%) [6]. Liquor Sector - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1550 RMB, with a week-on-week increase of 5 RMB, while the box price is 1560 RMB, also up by 5 RMB. Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 780 RMB, and Guojiao 1573 has decreased by 10 RMB to around 820 RMB [8][33]. - The Moutai dealer conference emphasized a market-oriented transformation, focusing on consumer-centric strategies and adjusting product offerings to stabilize market dynamics [8]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report recommends focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with specific recommendations for companies like Anji Food, Qianhe Flavor, and Tianwei Food [10]. - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 26, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.02x, with a premium rate of 21%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 18.50x, with a premium rate of 12% [34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The value of layout in the high-end liquor sector is becoming evident, and the optimization of raw milk supply and demand is creating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from December 22 to December 26, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.5 percentage points [12][14] - The high-end liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment period due to slowing economic growth and insufficient consumer confidence, but there are signs of demand improvement compared to the second and third quarters [12] - The price strategy for premium liquor brands like Moutai is stabilizing, with recent prices in the range of 1500-1600 RMB, and significant price drops are not expected in the near future [12] - The raw milk supply-demand gap has slightly narrowed, with a short-term recovery in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, but long-term supply remains in surplus [4][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector shows layout value, and the raw milk supply-demand optimization is generating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with specific sub-sectors like health products and other foods showing relative strength [12][14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, with health products (+0.5%) and other foods (+0.0%) performing relatively better [12][14] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down 18.7% year-on-year [20][21] Liquor Industry News - Prices for premium Moutai products have increased, reflecting strong market demand and limited supply [42] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and West Oat Foods, among others, focusing on companies with strong performance stability and risk resilience [5][48]