编者按：当前银行理财货架产品琳琅满目，诸如"增强""稳健""均衡"等名称相近、特征模糊的产品层出不穷，投资者应如何甄别 与选择？为降低投资者的选择成本，南财理财通课题组从代销机构角度入手，每周一聚焦各渠道当周在售的理财产品，搜罗其 中业绩表现优异者，并发布代销产品业绩榜单。 本期，南财理财通重点关注最低持有期人民币公募产品的业绩表现，按照90天、180天、365天持有期限分类对产品业绩进行排 名，业绩指标计算指标为年化收益率，计算区间与持有期限相同，如90天持有期产品的业绩计算区间为近三月年化收益率，同 机构同系列同投资周期产品保留一只。 21世纪经济报道 21 21财经 (财)南财理财通 SFC 南方则经全媒体集团 银行本周(10/20-10/26) 在售最低持有180天产品榜 u | 1 | | --- | | l | 代销机构 | 产品名称 | 发行机构 | Harri | 近6月年 | 业绩比较 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 街质 | 化收藏 | 基隆 | | | | | | | | 35%×沪深 300指数期 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector and recommends long-term investment in quality bank stocks [1][3]. Core Insights - The financial sector's performance this week shows a mixed trend, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.34%, while the banking sector saw an increase of 4.89%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.12 percentage points [1][9]. - The insurance sector experienced a notable increase of 3.65%, driven by positive earnings forecasts from New China Life, which projected a 45% to 65% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the insurance industry, attributing it to supply-side reforms and the benefits from rising equity assets [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.34%, while the banking sector increased by 4.89%, with state-owned banks leading the gains [1][9]. - The insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.87 percentage points, with New China Life's earnings announcement boosting overall market confidence [1][11]. 2. Insurance Sector Analysis - New China Life's earnings forecast led to a 12.58% increase in its stock price over five trading days, contributing to a six-day rally in the insurance sector [1][11]. - The report highlights the potential for the insurance sector to benefit from structural changes in the economy and improved asset performance [1][12]. 3. Brokerage Sector Analysis - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 3.13%, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.44x, indicating potential undervaluation [2][15]. - The report notes that the recent revisions to corporate governance standards by the CSRC could enhance the sector's governance and performance [2][15]. 4. Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's performance was strong, with a 4.89% increase, driven by a flight to quality amid market uncertainties [1][18]. - The report suggests focusing on banks with high growth potential and stable performance for both short-term and long-term investments [1][21].

Group 1 - The consumption market has shown a strong recovery during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with 888 million trips taken and spending exceeding 800 billion yuan, leading to a year-on-year increase of 4.5% in daily sales revenue in the consumption sector [1] - Hangzhou Bank has launched various credit card activities to promote consumption, focusing on multi-scenario coverage and establishing a "branch + merchant linkage marketing" mechanism [2][3] - The bank's promotional activities have successfully reached over 2700 merchants across 27 regions, resulting in 382,000 customer transactions and participation from 226,000 customers [2] Group 2 - Hangzhou Bank has introduced a series of travel-related credit card discounts in anticipation of holiday tourism trends, including discounts on travel bookings and a 3% cashback for overseas spending [3] - The bank has optimized its loan products, introducing the "Hang Xiaohua" brand to cater to various customer needs, allowing for a more convenient loan experience without the need to visit a bank [4]

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is seen as a safe haven amid rising market uncertainties, with high dividend yield assets becoming increasingly attractive [1][41] - The securities sector is benefiting from a surge in trading volumes and increased stamp duty revenues, indicating strong performance in upcoming quarterly reports [1][43] - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth in investment income and new business value, driven by increased equity market exposure and favorable policy support [1][45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the banking index increased by 5.53%, the securities index decreased by 0.57%, and the insurance index rose by 6.27%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48% [11] - Among the sub-sectors, Chongqing Bank (+15.90%), GF Securities (+8.98%), and New China Life Insurance (+12.21%) showed the best performance [11] Valuation Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.73, with state-owned banks at 0.79, joint-stock banks at 0.62, city commercial banks at 0.73, and rural commercial banks at 0.65 [22] - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.59, indicating potential for valuation recovery [24] - Insurance companies' price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios are as follows: New China Life (0.74), China Pacific Insurance (0.59), Ping An (0.69), and China Life (0.72) [25] Recent Market Indicators - As of October 16, 2025, the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, and the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) are 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [29] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market is 22,359.31 billion, showing a decrease of 13.57% [33] - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [41] Company Announcements - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65% [45] - Shanghai Bank announced a cash dividend of 0.30 yuan per share, totaling 4.263 billion yuan [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, suggesting that several banks are undervalued based on their asset quality and excess provisioning metrics [4][3]. Core Insights - The valuation premium of banks typically arises from their middle-income and liability advantages, while valuation discounts are often due to concerns over asset quality [2][10]. - The report introduces two key indicators: "broad non-performing asset ratio" and "excess provisioning profit multiple" to objectively assess and compare the current asset quality status of banks [2][10]. - A total of 56 AH-listed banks are analyzed, expanding from the previous report's focus on 42 A-share listed banks, to provide a comprehensive overview of excess provisioning levels and trends [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Significance of Asset Quality - The report emphasizes the importance of objectively assessing asset quality, as it significantly impacts bank valuations and performance [10]. 2. How to Objectively Assess Bank Non-Performing Assets - Traditional asset quality indicators may not accurately reflect the true provisioning situation due to inconsistent standards and incomplete coverage of assets [14]. - The report proposes a "broad non-performing asset ratio" to better capture the credit risk within banks [14][15]. 3. Construction of Excess Provisioning Profit Multiple Indicator - The excess provisioning profit multiple is constructed to measure the performance elasticity of banks, indicating their potential for future earnings recovery [7][14]. - The report highlights that banks with higher excess provisioning ratios, such as Hangzhou Bank, show strong risk mitigation capabilities [7][14]. 4. Valuation from the Perspective of Broad Excess Provisioning - The long-term correlation between bank valuation levels and ROE is noted, with excess provisioning contributing to performance and valuation improvements [3][4]. - Several banks, including Wuxi Bank and Agricultural Bank (H), are identified as being significantly above the PB-excess provisioning profit multiple regression line, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Market Overview - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.17% on October 17, with Shanghai Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Individual Bank Performance - Xiamen Bank saw a closing price of 6.91, with an increase of 2.67% and a trading volume of 335,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 230 million [1] - Qingdao Bank closed at 5.10, up 2.20%, with a trading volume of 621,700 shares and a transaction value of 316 million [1] - In contrast, Shanghai Bank closed at 9.49, down 1.04%, with a trading volume of 768,900 shares and a transaction value of 734 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 403 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 308 million [2] - The table indicates that Suzhou Bank had a net inflow of 24.27 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 14.17 million from speculative funds [3] - Jiangsu Bank experienced a net outflow of 24.10 million from institutional investors but had a net inflow of 1.78 million from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for financing remains to be improved, with a continuation of fund activation [3]. - Social financing (社融) has shown a year-on-year decrease, with September's new social financing at 3.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 229.8 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - The growth rate of social financing stock is at +8.68% year-on-year, with a slight decline of 0.13 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The issuance of government bonds continues to weaken its support for social financing growth, with new government bonds in September amounting to 1.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 347.1 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights a marginal improvement in residents' medium and long-term loans, while corporate financing demand remains weak [3]. - The report suggests that the activation of funds is increasing, with M1 and M2 growth rates at +7.2% and +8.4% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for recovery in credit demand and suggests monitoring the effectiveness of new policy financial tools [3]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry - The banking sector's fundamentals are accumulating positive factors, with a marginal improvement in mid-term performance expected [3]. - The report recommends specific banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), and others, indicating their potential for value [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The external environment's uncertainty has increased, leading to a temporary decline in market risk appetite. This, combined with the insurance sector entering a peak season, has heightened demand for dividend allocation, creating opportunities for portfolio adjustments. The report is optimistic about the relative performance of the banking sector in Q4 2025 [3][22] - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Chongqing Bank (601963, Not Rated), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) 2. Large state-owned banks with solid fundamentals and good defensive value, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated), China Construction Bank (601939, Not Rated), and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [3][22] Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit Growth - In September 2025, social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 3.53 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations. However, this represents a year-on-year decrease of 2.3 billion yuan [8][9] - The structure of social financing shows a year-on-year decrease in RMB loans by 366.2 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand and the ongoing impact of debt restructuring [9][10] - Government bonds also saw a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, although their issuance has accelerated this year [9] - Direct financing for enterprises increased by 240.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with bond financing up by 203.1 billion yuan, largely due to a low base effect from last year [9] Loan Growth Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.6% year-on-year in September 2025, with new loans of 1.29 trillion yuan, slightly below expectations and a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan [13] - Residential loans decreased by 107.9 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate loans increased by 200 billion yuan [13][14] - The report notes a significant decline in bill financing, which decreased by 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a shift in corporate financing dynamics [14] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 growth improved significantly, rising by 7.2% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.4% [19] - In September, new RMB deposits totaled 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 760 billion yuan [19][21] - The report highlights a trend of funds moving back to banks, with corporate deposits increasing by 149.4 billion yuan, while fiscal deposits decreased by 604.2 billion yuan [19]

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector rose by 0.62% on October 15, with Chongqing Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3912.21, up 1.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13118.75, up 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Chongqing Bank (601963) closed at 10.07, up 1.72% with a trading volume of 455,900 shares and a transaction value of 461 million [1] - Jiangsu Bank (616009) closed at 10.86, up 1.31% with a trading volume of 2.17 million shares and a transaction value of 2.337 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Changsha Bank (601577) at 9.35 (+1.08%), Shanghai Bank (601229) at 9.70 (+1.04%), and Nanjing Bank (600109) at 11.66 (+1.04%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector experienced a net outflow of 301 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 136 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are increasing their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Banks - Qilu Bank (601665) had a net outflow of 38.24 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.55 million [3] - Ningbo Bank (002142) saw a net outflow of 18.51 million from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 1.63 million [3] - Beijing Bank (601169) experienced a net outflow of 6.04 million from institutional investors, but retail investors added 35.47 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates have a neutral to positive impact on banks' net interest margins, with expectations for stable interest income performance in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Net Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, supporting stable interest income performance. The LPR and deposit rate adjustments are projected to have a neutral to positive effect on net interest margins, with new loan rates remaining relatively firm [1][2]. - For Q3 2025, the growth rate of interest income for listed banks is forecasted to decline by 0.8% year-on-year, but will increase by 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with state-owned banks showing a growth of 0.8 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Non-Interest Income Performance - Non-interest income is expected to show differentiation, with state-owned banks likely performing better due to significant growth in equity fund products and a shift in deposits from general to interbank deposits [3]. - The forecast for Q3 2025 indicates a 3.4% year-on-year growth in net fee income for listed banks, with state-owned banks expected to see a growth of 0.3 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Credit Costs - Asset quality is anticipated to remain stable, with credit costs potentially returning to a downward trend. Despite a decline in loan growth, the write-off rate remains steady, which may support stable non-performing loan indicators [4]. - For Q3 2025, the forecast for impairment losses is a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, with net profit growth of 0.7% year-on-year for listed banks [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment themes: high-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, and large state-owned banks with good defensive value [5].