7月以来，随着"反内卷"情绪不断发酵，商品市场情绪出现显著修复，其中黑色板块成为市场关注与配 置的重要方向。二季度硅铁盘面贴水现象较多，原因在于电力市场化改革持续推进背景下，市场对硅铁 成本中枢下移的担忧，主导了硅铁盘面定价逻辑。随着政策底信号明确，这一长期利空因素被阶段性弱 化，并推动硅铁估值开启修复进程。 底部基础逐步夯实 生产利润快速修复 回顾7月，盘面引领现货价格上涨，与此同时成本小幅下移，在双向因素共同作用下，硅铁生产利润快 速扩张。具体来看，宁夏产区现货利润已修复至450元/吨左右。供应端，受利润驱动，陕西、甘肃产区 硅铁厂启动复产，供应边际增加。需求端则呈现分化态势：粗钢领域，钢厂盈利率较去年处于偏高水 平，即便处于淡季，仍展现出较强韧性，为硅铁需求提供一定支撑；但非钢领域中，金属镁及出口需求 整体表现偏弱，对总需求形成拖累，供需缺口随之逐渐收敛。 展望8月，硅铁市场将呈现"供应增加、需求稳定"的格局。供应端，在利润刺激下，工厂仍有复产意 愿。需求端预计环比变化有限，结构上存在分化：高温多雨天气将对建筑施工形成不利影响，进而拖累 建材需求；板材需求则有望填补基建、地产终端需求减少留下的缺口；非钢 ...

来源：新浪期货 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：方正中期、持仓62298、增仓9768，弘业期货、持仓24026、增仓5494，申万期 货、持仓37768、增仓2537；多头减仓前三名分别是：光大期货、持仓28970、减仓-24983，东证期货、持仓92885、减仓-7128， 银河期货、持仓33706、减仓-3370； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中辉期货、持仓22469、增仓3194，东证期货、持仓104685、增仓2927，永安期 货、持仓75785、增仓1372；空头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓116513、减仓-13364，国泰君安、持仓176757、减 仓-7875，瑞达期货、持仓30931、减仓-3130。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 国泰君女 | 578,817 | -9,881 | 中信期货 324,516 | | 5, ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market shows a significant increase in trading volume and changes in positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment with a net short position among the top 20 participants [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 5, 2025, the main urea futures contract (2509) closed with a price increase of 2.67%, with a trading volume of 208,500 contracts and a total open interest showing a net short position of 10,090 contracts [1]. - The total trading volume for all urea contracts reached 292,600 contracts, an increase of 8,710 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. Group 2: Position Changes - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 198,000 contracts, an increase of 2,629 contracts, while short positions totaled 219,900 contracts, an increase of 4,745 contracts [1]. - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (16,591 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (14,451 contracts), and Yong'an Futures (13,481 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (29,651 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (19,068 contracts), and CITIC Futures (16,660 contracts) [1][4]. Group 3: Individual Member Changes - The top three members increasing their long positions were Guotai Junan (9,470 contracts, +1,881), Huatai Futures (2,448 contracts, +481), and Qisheng Futures (2,545 contracts, +469) [1][3]. - The top three members decreasing their long positions were Zhongyuan Futures (2,782 contracts, -1,469), Rongda Futures (3,760 contracts, -1,010), and Huishang Futures (2,218 contracts, -863) [1][3]. - The top three members increasing their short positions were Yong'an Futures (3,445 contracts, +1,414), CITIC Jiantou (3,702 contracts, +706), and Xinhu Futures (1,979 contracts, +463) [1][3]. - The top three members decreasing their short positions were CITIC Futures (11,758 contracts, -2,719), Guotai Junan (16,344 contracts, -1,480), and Dongzheng Futures (11,086 contracts, -1,002) [1][3].

Core Insights - The main contract for soda ash (contract 2509) closed at a price increase of 2.01% as of August 5, with a trading volume of 993,600 lots and a net short position among the top 20 positions of 109,594 lots [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all soda ash contracts reached 2,509,000 lots, with an increase of 58,500 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 1,098,100 lots, a decrease of 61,200 lots from the previous day, while short positions totaled 1,400,800 lots, a decrease of 45,600 lots [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 105,247), CITIC Futures (total position 83,012), and Dongzheng Futures (total position 69,631) [1]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 191,270), CITIC Futures (total position 178,585), and Yong'an Futures (total position 178,125) [1]. Changes in Positions - The top two long position increases were from Zheshang Futures (holding 10,995, increase of 2,285) and Yong'an Futures (holding 19,138, increase of 1,700) [1]. - The top three long position decreases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 26,779, decrease of 11,134), Guotai Junan (holding 51,087, decrease of 9,304), and Guangfa Futures (holding 17,311, decrease of 8,281) [1]. - The top three short position increases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 51,092, increase of 1,111), Guotou Futures (holding 10,925, increase of 991), and CITIC Jiantou (holding 11,792, increase of 717) [1]. - The top three short position decreases were from Guotai Junan (holding 97,325, decrease of 22,495), Yong'an Futures (holding 73,093, decrease of 10,406), and Guangfa Futures (holding 10,463, decrease of 6,574) [1].

Core Insights - The main contract for the 30-year Treasury futures closed at 2509 on August 5, with a slight increase of 0.06% and a trading volume of 100,100 contracts, indicating a net long position among the top 20 holders with a difference of 3,543 contracts [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all contracts was 120,200, which is a decrease of 3,460 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 holders had a total long position of 125,900 contracts, down by 3,184 contracts, while the total short position was 125,700 contracts, a decrease of 1,942 contracts [1][4]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by CITIC Futures (27,833 contracts), Guotai Junan (17,150 contracts), and Ping An Futures (9,487 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were also held by CITIC Futures (16,180 contracts), Guotai Junan (15,641 contracts), and Galaxy Futures (10,917 contracts) [1][4]. Group 3: Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 holders, the largest increase in long positions was seen in Zhongtai Futures (2,126 contracts, up by 467), CITIC Futures (16,480 contracts, up by 347), and GF Futures (4,094 contracts, up by 96) [1][3]. - The largest decrease in long positions was recorded by Guotai Junan (10,876 contracts, down by 2,125), Guojin Futures (2,552 contracts, down by 638), and Hongyuan Futures (6,986 contracts, down by 367) [1][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading performance of coking coal futures, with the main contract 2601 experiencing a price increase of 6.92% as of August 5, with a trading volume of 2.4948 million lots [1][2] - The total trading volume for all coking coal futures contracts reached 3.2342 million lots, an increase of 654,500 lots compared to the previous day [1][3] - The top 20 positions in the futures market show a net short position, with a difference of 84,472 lots, indicating a bearish sentiment among major traders [1][4] Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by CITIC Futures with a total holding of 44,649 lots, Guotai Junan with 42,091 lots, and Founder Futures with 32,517 lots [1][3] - The top three short positions are also led by CITIC Futures with 66,737 lots, Guotai Junan with 62,843 lots, and Yide Futures with 35,016 lots [1][3] - The changes in positions show that the top three long position increases were from Founder Futures (+7,880 lots), Yide Futures (+3,765 lots), and Guotai Junan (+3,180 lots) [1][3]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至8月05日收盘主力合约焦炭2509,涨跌+3.16%,成交量3.26万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为2215手。 焦炭期货全合约总计成交5.31万手，比上一日新增7698手。全合约前20席位多头持仓3.07万手，比上一日增加1676手。全合约前20 席位空头持仓3.79万手，比上一日增加1538手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓5477、国泰君安，总持仓4099、银河期货，总持仓2418；空头前三席位为 中信期货，总持仓5220、物产中大，总持仓4252、方正中期，总持仓2915； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：广发期货、持仓673、增仓122，中信期货、持仓2039、增仓104，国泰君安、持仓 2062、增仓103；多头减仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓1352、减仓-167，银河期货、持仓1639、减仓-113，东证期货、持仓 949、减仓-96； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：方正中期、持仓1826、增仓413，广发期货、持仓454、增仓153，中信期货、持仓 2638、增仓147；空头减仓前三名分别是：物产中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs SP Main Contract Information - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5168.00, showing a -0.34709% change from the previous day [3] - The discount to US dollars was 628.64 on August 4, 2025 [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 682, and that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing was 757 on August 4, 2025 [3] Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion was 51.55, while that of Canadian Lion was -342.78, and that of Chilean Yinxing was -61.65 on August 4, 2025 [4] - The port US - dollar price of Canadian Golden Lion was 780, Canadian Lion was 730, and Chilean Yinxing was 720 [4] - The RMB price in Shandong area of Canadian Golden Lion was 6450, Canadian Lion was 5635, and Chilean Yinxing was 5850 [4] Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong area [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from July 30 to August 4, 2025 [4] - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper showed some positive changes from July 30 to August 4, 2025, with changes of 0.1286, 0.1121, 0.0975, and 0.1528 respectively [4] Pulp Price Difference Information - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural, softwood and chemimechanical, and softwood and waste paper all showed a decreasing trend [4]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3380.05, up 33.20 [1] - London Silver latest price is 37.15, up 0.66 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1302.00, down 4.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1227.00, up 10.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 66.29, down 1.04 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9677.50, up 33.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 98.74, up 0.05 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, down 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.33, up 0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 147.11, down 0.28 [1] Trading Data - SHFE Silver inventory is 1174.27, down 9.69 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 954.80, up 1.72 [2] - SGE Silver inventory is 1312.02, unchanged [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1, unchanged [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1, unchanged [2]

1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 日照港准一平仓 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 长治出厂价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000.00 4500.00 青岛港准一平仓 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 全样本焦化焦炭库存 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/8/5 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | 最新 日变化 ...