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执衡驭势,谋局迎春A股市场观察与12月资配展望
Orient Securities· 2025-12-05 07:15
Market Strategy - The A-share market is currently experiencing adjustments, showing a weak oscillating trend, with expectations not significantly improving and index heights being limited [7] - In December, the overall performance of various asset classes is expected to be stable, with a neutral to slightly bullish outlook on stocks, commodities, and gold, while bonds and US stocks are neutral [7] - The report suggests focusing on mid-cap blue chips, which are undervalued and have lower institutional allocation, as well as sectors with improving marginal prosperity [7] Industry Strategy - The non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors are expected to maintain strong performance, while opportunities exist in agriculture and chemicals [4][7] - The industry is undergoing a market-driven and policy-supported capacity reduction phase, with a left-side layout window potentially emerging [7] - The current pig price has dropped to 11 yuan per kilogram, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which is expected to force high-cost production capacity to exit, setting a solid foundation for future price stabilization [7] Thematic Strategy - In agriculture, the accelerated reduction of pig stocks presents a left-side layout opportunity, with expectations of a cyclical rebound once the capacity reduction is solidified [5][7] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the agriculture sector is at historical lows, indicating a potential entry point for investors [7]
研报掘金丨东方证券:维持绿盟科技“买入”评级,目标价9.42元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-05 07:02
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights that Green Alliance Technology focuses on AI and data security, cultivating new future scenarios through a "3+3+X+Y" strategy, driving differentiated competitiveness with dual engines of AI security and data security [1] Group 1: AI Security Developments - The company has iterated its Fengyunwei AI security capability platform, establishing a multi-agent security application center to address challenges in AI model assessment [1] - The launch of the AI-Scan large model risk assessment product enhances vulnerability detection and threat assessment efficiency, with successful implementations in government and financial sectors [1] Group 2: Emerging Security Scenarios - The company is actively developing new security scenarios, achieving technological breakthroughs in areas such as APT tracking and forensics, cloud offensive and defensive strategies, new drone countermeasures, and vehicle networking test fields [1] - The vehicle networking test field business has completed key technology validation, laying the groundwork for future large-scale applications [1] Group 3: Cloud Security and Privacy Computing - The company is deepening research in cloud-native security and privacy computing, enhancing its product matrix to meet diverse cloud security needs [1] - Continuous breakthroughs in these emerging fields are expected to open new growth opportunities for the company, forming long-term development potential [1] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Considering the current market conditions and comparable companies, a target price of 9.42 yuan is set for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating with a projected 3x PS ratio [1]
研报掘金丨东方证券:维持精测电子“买入”评级,持续推动先进制程前道量测设备突破
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-05 06:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jingce Electronics is continuously advancing its front-end measurement equipment for advanced processes, which opens up growth opportunities [1] - The company has officially delivered its defect detection equipment for the 14nm advanced process node, with acceptance and related work progressing smoothly [1] - Key products in the semiconductor front-end measurement field, including thickness measurement series, OCD equipment, and electron beam equipment, have completed delivery and acceptance for the 7nm advanced process, with more advanced products currently under validation [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the proportion of advanced process front-end measurement equipment in the company's overall revenue and orders is expected to increase, becoming a core driver of the company's performance [1] - The company is also advancing its layout in the semiconductor back-end electrical measurement field, with its subsidiary Wuhan Jinghong planning to implement capital increase and expansion [1] - Benefiting from ongoing investments in OLED production lines, the display testing business is expected to develop steadily [1] Group 3 - Based on the DCF valuation method, a target price of 75.39 yuan is set, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]
研报掘金丨东方证券:维持杰瑞股份“买入”评级,目标价70.9元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-05 06:34
东方证券研报指出,杰瑞股份第二个数据中心订单落地,抬升增长确定性,并有望带来增量业务。公司 再次获得北美数据中心订单,我们认为其业务增长的确定性继续提升、本次订单后续有望带来额外的增 量业务,我们继续看好公司在电力板块的发展。由于第二次订单提升了公司的确定性和未来增长空间, 认为将有望带来估值继续提升机会。由于公司燃机业务进展顺利,我们在可比公司中添加燃机相关公司 以反映新业务比重的增加。维持盈利预测,给与2025-2027年归母净利润分别为31.53、38.18、44.64亿 元,参考可比公司估值,给予公司26年19xPE,对应目标价70.9元,维持"买入"评级。 ...
中资券商股午后走高 年底重要政策窗口期临近 机构看好证券行业景气度上行
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 06:33
消息面上,广发证券研报指出,2025年市场活跃度回升,经纪两融高增,泛自营贡献分化弹性,券商业 绩高增但估值滞涨。2026年随着慢牛预期改善、政策利好,行业ROE持续提升,alpha有望更加突出, 催化机构资金增配。该行认为,行业景气度持续上行,春季躁动有望打开估值修复窗口期。建议关注受 益于格局优化主线、以及受益于泛财富管理提速回暖、投行资本化弹性的券商。 值得关注的是,年底重要政策窗口期临近。按照惯例,12月中上旬将召开中共中央政治局会议和中央经 济工作会议,部署2026年经济工作。中信证券指出,2025年中央经济工作会议大概率在"稳中求进"总基 调下,从消费扩张、科技创新、财政货币协调、房地产风险化解等方面形成系统部署。短期稳增长、稳 预期是核心任务,中期推动产业与投资结构优化,长期着力构建新质生产力和新发展模式。 中资券商股午后走高,截至发稿,弘业期货(001236)(03678)涨6.1%,报3.48港元;国联民生 (601456)(01456)涨3.9%,报5.6港元;华泰证券(601688)(06886)涨3.66%,报18.39港元;东方证券 (600958)(03958)涨3.27%,报6. ...
东方证券:LME仓单大幅注销推升供给担忧 继续看好铜价与冶炼费齐升
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 03:09
"反内卷"严控冶炼扩产措施出台预期增强,继续看好铜价与冶炼费齐升 近期中国有色金属工业协会表示,坚决反对矿端与冶炼端不可持续结构性矛盾下导致的零加工费或负加 工费,国内将严控新增铜冶炼产能。此外,11月28日中国铜原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)也宣布,为推进 铜产业高质量发展以及落实"反内卷"相关政策要求,成员将执行降低26年矿铜产能负荷10%以上、建立 监督机制防止恶意竞争等自律性措施,进一步提升了国内铜冶炼"反内卷"政策落地、冶炼产能下行的预 期。该行认为,目前铜矿端与冶炼端供需矛盾或在"反内卷"措施落地预期下获得缓解,冶炼费有望止跌 企稳,该行有望迎来铜价及冶炼费齐升局面,坚定看好铜矿端与冶炼端的投资机会。 投资建议与投资标的 铜矿端:建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业(601899.SH,买入),其 他标的:洛阳钼业(603993.SH,未评级)、金诚信(603979.SH,未评级)。铜冶炼端:建议关注全国最大 铜冶炼企业之一、且具有米拉多铜矿资源放量提升铜精矿自给率预期的铜陵有色(000630.SZ,买入), 其他标的:江西铜业(600362.SH,未评级)。 智通财经APP ...
东方证券:银行业基本面筑底回升 聚焦息差改善和风险演绎
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 02:24
25年财政收入温和修复,财政支出积极、节奏前置、"投资于人"特征明显,并实现了积极的化债成效。 展望2026年,财政依旧是刺激总需求,并最终影响银行资产扩张增速中枢的核心力量。积极的财政政策 定调下,该行预计狭义财政赤字率水平至少持平于2025年,财政节奏仍然有前置特征,助力银行信贷开 门红,并且在消费信贷领域的支持或有更广义的延展。该行测算信贷增速将在6.1%~6.6%运行,社融同 比增速在8.3%~9.0%运行。 2026年银行净息差有望企稳回升,负债成本改善仍是叙事主线,但资产端收益贡献或也边际改善 25年银行计息负债成本率显著改善,成为稳定息差表现的核心力量。展望26年,该行预测银行息差有望 企稳回升:1)负债端:存款重定价规模或有增加,幅度有所减弱,但对息差提振效果依旧可观。测算26 年进入重定价周期的存款规模约112万亿元,对计息负债成本率改善的贡献度约17.5BP,对净息差的支 撑效果约15.6BP。既有的模型大约表达了58%的负债成本改善效果,线性递推到26年,计息负债成本率 压降和对净息差的改善效果分别为30BP和27BP。2)资产端:重定价影响较为有限,关注新发贷款利率 拐点的或有出现。2 ...
东方证券:维持快手-W“买入”评级 目标价103.06港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 01:57
Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities predicts Kuaishou-W (01024) adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 20.4 billion, CNY 22.5 billion, and CNY 25.9 billion respectively, maintaining a 2026 PE valuation of 18x, corresponding to a reasonable value of CNY 404.8 billion, or HKD 445.4 billion, with a target price of HKD 103.06 per share, and maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The release of Keling's O1 model integrates video generation, modification, and expansion into a unified model, significantly enhancing efficiency for professional creators and marking a breakthrough in modifying single elements within video frames [1] - The O1 model features include multi-modal video capabilities, deep semantic understanding, consistency in video output, and support for 3-10 second narratives, catering to both consumer and professional creation needs [1][2] Group 2 - The update of the O1 model has no direct competitors in the market, continuing Keling's iteration in meeting professional creator demands while simplifying front-end input, thus lowering barriers for user engagement [2] - The flexibility and convenience for B-end professional creation have significantly improved, with the MVL (Multi-modal visual language) concept being productized, enhancing creator intent expression and interaction efficiency [2] - The lowered barriers further accelerate user penetration, enhancing C-end playability and expanding the audience for AI video models, with simplified prompts and the ability to easily replicate popular videos [2]
东方证券:维持快手-W(01024)“买入”评级 目标价103.06港元
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 01:55
Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities predicts Kuaishou-W (01024) adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be 20.4 billion, 22.5 billion, and 25.9 billion CNY respectively, maintaining a 2026 PE valuation of 18x, leading to a reasonable value of 404.8 billion CNY, equivalent to 445.4 billion HKD, with a target price of 103.06 HKD per share and a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The release of the Keling O1 model integrates video generation, modification, and expansion into a unified model, enhancing efficiency for professional creators and marking a breakthrough in modifying single elements within video frames [1] - The O1 model features multi-modal capabilities, allowing for comprehensive creation processes including generation, modification, and expansion, addressing backend video consistency issues and supporting 3-10 second narratives for various creative needs [1][2] Group 2 - The update significantly enhances flexibility and convenience for B-end professional creators, implementing the MVL (Multi-modal visual language) concept, which improves interaction efficiency and expression of creator intent [2] - The lowered entry barriers further accelerate user penetration, enhancing C-end playability and expanding the audience for AI video models, with simplified prompts and the ability to easily replicate popular videos [2]
关于万家基金管理有限公司旗下部分基金新增东方证券股份有限公司为流动性服务商的公告
Core Viewpoint - The company plans to enhance the market liquidity and stable operation of two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by appointing Dongfang Securities Co., Ltd. as a liquidity service provider starting from December 5, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The funds involved are the Wanji Zhongzheng A500 ETF (code: 159356) and the Wanji CSI 300 ETF (code: 159393) [1] - The decision is in accordance with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's guidelines for liquidity services [1] - The announcement was made by Wanji Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1]