Core Viewpoint - International silver prices have reached record highs this year, driven by various factors, with a significant increase in investment demand and low inventory levels [1] Group 1: Silver Price Performance - As of December 19, the London silver spot price surpassed $67 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.44% and a year-to-date increase of 132.11%, which is more than double the increase in London gold prices [1] - The average increase in silver concept stocks has reached 79.41% this year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley believes that investment demand for silver will continue to dominate the market, suggesting a potential short squeeze in the spot market due to low inventory levels [1] - Four silver concept stocks have seen year-to-date increases exceeding 100%, specifically Xingye Silver (000426), Shengda Resources (000603), Jiangxi Copper (600362), and Chifeng Gold (600988) [1]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 0.98% on December 18, with Shandong Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13053.98, down 1.29% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed varied performance, with Shandong Gold closing at 37.09, up 2.52%, and Hunan Silver down 0.95% at 6.25 [1][3] Group 2 - The net capital flow in the precious metals sector showed a net outflow of 178 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 127 million yuan [3][4] - Shandong Gold had a significant net inflow of 87.45 million yuan from institutional investors, while Hunan Silver experienced a net outflow of 95.28 million yuan [4] - The ETF tracking the gold industry, with a product code of 159562, has seen a recent increase in shares by 10 million, with a net subscription of 21.28 million yuan [6]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Hongbing [1] - SAC Number: S0870523060002 [1] - Related Reports: "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Securities ETF", "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Bank ETF", "November Allocation Strategy for Chinese Medicine ETF" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The Golden Stocks ETF (517520.SH) managed by Yongying Fund tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index (931238.CSI), with the index abbreviation SSH Gold Stocks [3]. - From September 11 to December 12, 2025, the best convergent stock of the Golden Stocks ETF is Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), selected by considering the deviation of constituent stocks from the gold stock index and research coverage [3]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 based on the expected EPS of 2024 was close to 16 times PE. Based on 16 times PE, from 2024 to 2025 (up to December 12, 2025), most of the stock price fluctuations of Chifeng Gold did not exceed the value range defined by the fundamental value of T - 1 year and the expected fundamental value of T + 2 year. As of December 12, 2025, the expected per - share fundamental values of Chifeng Gold from 2025 to 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, and the closing price was 31.2 yuan per share, still lower than the per - share fundamental value in 2026 [3]. - According to the position of Chifeng Gold's closing price in the expected per - share fundamental value range from 2025 to 2027, the closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% [3]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio of the Golden Stocks ETF based on the dynamic position allocation of Chifeng Gold were better than those of the buy - and - hold strategy. The allocation strategy achieved an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy of the Golden Stocks ETF achieved an end - of - period return of - 0.1% with a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11] Group 3: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Golden Stocks ETF Allocation Value Analysis - The Golden Stocks ETF tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index, and the best convergent stock in the recent 3 months is Chifeng Gold [3][10]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 was 16 times PE, and its stock price fluctuations from 2024 - 2025 (up to December 12, 2025) mostly stayed within the fundamental value range. The expected per - share fundamental values from 2025 - 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, with a closing price of 31.2 yuan per share on December 12, 2025 [3][10]. - The closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% based on the fundamental value range [3][11]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the dynamic position allocation strategy based on Chifeng Gold outperformed the buy - and - hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio, achieving an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy had an end - of - period return of - 0.1% and a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11]

Core Insights - The recent rise in precious metals, including gold, silver, and copper, has positively impacted various ETFs, particularly the gold and non-ferrous metal ETFs [2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) has seen a continuous inflow of funds over the past week, totaling 144 million yuan, reaching a record high in both share count and total assets [2] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI sub-index for the non-ferrous metal industry, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 52.65% of the index [2] ETF Performance - The gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.13%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 0.46% [2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) experienced a 1.09% increase, with notable stock performances including Huaxi Nonferrous (7.01% increase) and Chihong Zinc & Germanium (5.04% increase) [2] - The latest share count for the non-ferrous metal ETF reached 1.391 billion, with a total asset size of 2.417 billion yuan [2] Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal ETF include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and China Aluminum, among others [2] - These stocks are significant contributors to the ETF's performance, reflecting the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal sector [2]

Group 1 - The metal lead concept increased by 3.20%, ranking fourth among concept sectors, with 33 stocks rising, including major mining companies like Dazhong Mining and Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit [1] - The leading gainers in the metal lead sector included Xingye Silver Tin, Zhuhai Group, and Shengda Resources, which rose by 6.46%, 6.45%, and 6.01% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 8.95 billion yuan from main funds, with 27 stocks receiving net inflows, and five stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The top stocks by net inflow included Guocheng Mining with 2.28 billion yuan, followed by Dazhong Mining, Baiyin Nonferrous, and Chifeng Gold with net inflows of 2.07 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.08 billion yuan respectively [2] - The net inflow ratios for Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, and Baiyin Nonferrous were 19.06%, 16.34%, and 13.93% respectively, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The overall performance of the metal lead sector was contrasted by declines in other sectors, such as Smart Agriculture and Baodi Mining, which fell by 9.69% and 0.29% respectively [5]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced an afternoon rally, with notable increases in share prices [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rose by 3.83%, reaching HKD 31.46 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787.HK) increased by 3.48%, trading at HKD 3.49 [1] - Lingbao Gold Company (03330.HK) saw a rise of 2.9%, with shares priced at HKD 18.08 [1] - Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) gained 2.73%, with a share price of HKD 33.94 [1]

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but manufacturing employment has dropped to its lowest level since March 2022 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, although this increase coincided with a rise in the labor participation rate [1] - Non-farm employment saw a significant decrease of 105,000 in October, with August and September also revised down by a total of 33,000 [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - The average hourly wage in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a slowdown in real wage growth [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the overall weak data, there remains a divergence in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, leading to increased short-term volatility in gold prices [1] - The long-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset and its anti-inflation value continues to attract capital [1] Group 4: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased holdings from households or institutional investors seeking to diversify risk amid high macroeconomic uncertainty [2] Group 5: Gold Industry Index Performance - As of December 17, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.87%, with constituent stocks such as Shandong Gold and Jiangxi Copper seeing significant gains [2] - The gold stock ETF fund saw a turnover of 7.16% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 7.3346 million [2] Group 6: Top Holdings in Gold Industry Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.26% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the Hong Kong stock market for gold and precious metal stocks, with notable gains for companies like China Silver Group, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [1] - Spot silver prices surged by 4.00% to reach $66.29 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities, indicated a severe short squeeze in the silver market, emphasizing that the U.S. has listed silver as a critical mineral without a corresponding supply response [1] Group 2 - The demand for silver is expected to rise significantly, particularly from countries entering the artificial intelligence sector, which will require more silver for data centers [1] - The current trend suggests that silver prices could potentially reach $70 in the short term [1]

Group 1 - Precious metals sector experienced a significant upward movement in the afternoon on December 17, with notable gains in stocks such as Xingye Silver Tin and Shengda Resources, both rising over 6% [2] - Other companies in the precious metals industry, including Shanjin International, Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, also showed strong performance with substantial increases in their stock prices [2]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a significant afternoon rally, with Shanjin International rising over 5% [2] - Other companies in the sector, including Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold, also saw increases in their stock prices [2]