Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on December 17, with the non-ferrous sector showing strong performance, particularly the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which rose over 2% in early trading and attracted over 830 million yuan in net subscriptions in the previous day [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF has seen net subscriptions exceeding 650 million yuan over the past 20 trading days, with its latest scale surpassing 3.5 billion yuan, indicating a strong market interest [1] - Key stocks within the Non-ferrous 50 ETF, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium rising over 5% and Ganfeng Lithium over 4% [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 8% on December 17, reaching a new high since June 2024, with a cumulative increase of over 37% this year [3] - The Yichun city government plans to revoke mining licenses for 27 mining sites, including the Wuqiao ceramic stone mine, indicating regulatory actions impacting lithium supply [3] Group 3 - The current market dynamics for copper show a slight increase of 0.79% in LME copper prices, with expectations of a 10% reduction in copper smelting capacity to address negative processing fee trends [6] - The copper supply-demand gap is projected to widen, with increasing demand driven by traditional sectors and emerging technologies like AI, which is expected to significantly boost copper demand [16] Group 4 - The precious metals market is witnessing historical highs, with silver prices surpassing $65 per ounce and gold prices reaching over $4,320 per ounce, driven by strong investment demand and low inventory levels [5] - The financial attributes of gold, silver, and copper are expected to strengthen amid global inflation expectations and concerns over the US dollar's credit risk, making them attractive for investors seeking to hedge against uncertainty [12] Group 5 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a super cycle in non-ferrous metals, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a focus on strategic assets [26] - The ETF's composition shows a leading concentration in gold and copper, with copper accounting for 31% and gold for 14%, indicating a strong alignment with market trends [28]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, with a significant increase in the proportion of central banks cutting rates from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a transition from a tightening to an easing cycle [1] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential re-initiation of quantitative easing (QE), with the contraction rate of major central banks' balance sheets narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025 [2] - Historical data shows that during previous QE periods, commodity price indices, including energy and metals, experienced significant increases, with energy indices rising by 131.88% and metal price indices by 55.29% from 2020 to 2022 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly increasing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like gold [3] - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to a structural tightening in supply, with global gold consumption averaging around 4,616 tons annually and central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years [4] - Silver supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [6] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Platinum is anticipated to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining supply and slow recovery in demand [7] - The demand for platinum jewelry is expected to recover due to high gold prices, while industrial demand remains resilient despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [7] - The ongoing structural improvements in silver supply-demand dynamics and the increase in liquidity premiums are likely to support higher silver pricing [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the remarkable performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2025, with significant stock price increases, particularly in companies like Srei New Materials, which saw a 340.01% rise, and several others exceeding 150% [1][2] - A historical analysis indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry has never topped the annual performance rankings since 2000, achieving second place twice but failing to maintain consecutive years in the top five [1][4] - The upcoming 2026 year poses a critical question: whether the non-ferrous metal sector will follow historical patterns of correction or break the "consecutive champion" curse, which has never been achieved [1][5] Group 2 - The 2025 non-ferrous metal market is characterized by a comprehensive boom across precious and industrial metals, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, weakened dollar credit systems, and geopolitical risks [2][7] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen substantial price increases, with gold rising by 227.71% for companies like Zhaojin Gold, while silver prices have surged over 100% due to supply-demand dynamics [2][3][7] - Industrial metals are experiencing increased demand driven by sectors like new energy vehicles and renewable energy investments, indicating a long-term growth narrative for metals like copper and aluminum [2][3] Group 3 - Data shows that energy metals like cobalt and lithium, along with precious metals, have performed well, while others like zinc and magnesium have lagged behind [3] - The historical volatility of the non-ferrous metal sector is noted, with past performance cycles showing significant fluctuations and a tendency to follow commodity supercycles [4][5] - The high valuation levels of the non-ferrous metal sector present challenges for continued growth into 2026, with the sector index reaching 7499.07 points, a 73.67% increase for the year, yet still 17% below its historical peak [5][6] Group 4 - The divergence between stock price increases and declining company earnings raises concerns about speculative investments, as seen in companies like Tianli Composite and Zhongzhou Special Materials, which reported significant revenue and profit declines despite high stock performance [6] - The outlook for 2026 hinges on the balance of metal prices and demand, with various institutions outlining clear driving logic for different sub-sectors, such as gold's reliance on credit and risk aversion, and copper's supply constraints [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with a recent drop of 5.38% and a market capitalization of 58.78 billion yuan, while its main business focuses on gold and non-ferrous metal mining [1]. Group 1: Business Overview - The company primarily engages in the mining and selection of gold and non-ferrous metals, with its main products being gold and electrolytic copper [2][8]. - The company’s revenue composition includes 90.03% from gold, 3.76% from electrolytic copper, and smaller contributions from other products such as zinc concentrate and rare earth products [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.644 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.058 billion yuan, up 86.21% year-on-year [9]. - The company has distributed a total of 387 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with cumulative distributions over the past three years also amounting to 387 million yuan [10]. Group 3: Market Position and Trends - The company’s overseas revenue accounts for 69.11%, benefiting from the depreciation of the Chinese yuan [4]. - The company is involved in a partnership with Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. to develop rare earth resources in Laos, with a significant project involving an estimated resource of 101 million tons of ore and 25,500 tons of rare earth oxides [4]. Group 4: Stock and Trading Analysis - The stock has seen a net inflow of -62.96 million yuan today, with a trading volume indicating a lack of clear trends among major investors [5][6]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 30.21 yuan, with the current price approaching a resistance level of 31.44 yuan, suggesting potential for upward movement if this level is surpassed [7].

亚太主要股指今日跳水，港股主要股指今日再度下挫，恒生科技指数盘中一度大跌至2.7%。截至收盘，恒生指数收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数收跌1.74%， 双双刷新近期阶段低位。 盘面上，大型科技股持续下挫，商汤-W跌6%，阿里巴巴跌近3%，京东、网易、小米集团均跌超2%，百度、美团均跌超1%以上。腾讯控股今日跌 1.08%，盘中股价跌破600港元/股。 黄金股也全线调整，潼关黄金跌6.92%，紫金黄金国际跌6%，赤峰黄金（600988）跌超5%，珠峰黄金跌超3%，紫金矿业（601899）跌4.41%。 | < △ | [HK]贵金属指数(887674) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6543.70 -291.32 -4.26% | | | | 资料 | 成分 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 == | | 潼关黄金 | | 2.690 | -6.92% | | 0340.HK | | | | | 龙资源 | | 6.530 | -6.58% | | 1712.HK | | | | | 紫金黄金国际 | | 148.900 | -6.0 ...

人民财讯12月16日电，恒生指数收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.74%。果下科技上市首日涨超117%。黄 金股下跌，紫金黄金国际跌6%，赤峰黄金（600988）跌超5%，珠峰黄金跌超3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by macroeconomic recovery, supply chain disruptions, and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will enhance metal prices and industry performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry index (399395) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) leading the gains at 3.05%, followed by Yahua Group (002497) at 2.25%, and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) at 0.59% [1]. - The overall market is experiencing a pullback, but funds are strategically positioning in the non-ferrous sector [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - According to China Galaxy Securities, the industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with macroeconomic expectations improving in 2025, alongside supply chain disruptions due to resource control policies in other countries [1]. - The anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is expected to drive up non-ferrous metal prices and enhance the profitability of non-ferrous metal companies, continuing the upward trend in the industry [1]. - The narrative around copper supply remains positive, and cobalt prices are expected to rise under policy adjustments in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]. - The strategic value of rare earths is increasing, with a favorable supply-demand balance [1]. Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The non-ferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metals industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index accounted for 52.34% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2].

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 1.931 | -0.087 | -4.31% | | 159322 | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 1.565 | -0.065 | -3.99% | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.522 | -0.063 | -3.97% | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.476 | -0.059 | -3.84% | | 159315 | 黄金股ETF基金 | 1.578 | -0.063 | -3.84% | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | 2.110 | -0.080 | -3.65% | 黄金概念股震荡走低，中金黄金、赤峰黄金跌超5%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、湖南黄金跌超4%。 受盘面影响，黄金股相关ETF跌超3%。 有分析人士表示，短期看，美联储打开降息通道，驱动黄金的估值中枢上移；长期看，在地缘政治风 险、逆全球化趋势和美元信用体系弱化的背景下，强化了黄金的配置价值。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share gold stocks experienced significant declines in the afternoon trading session, with several companies reporting drops exceeding 6% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaocheng Technology saw a decline of 6.80%, with a total market capitalization of 8.223 billion [2]. - Western Gold fell by 6.62%, with a market cap of 24 billion [2]. - Zhaojin Mining decreased by 5.26%, with a market value of 12 billion [2]. - Zhongjin Gold dropped by 4.97%, with a market capitalization of 106.7 billion [2]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold experienced a decline of 4.89%, with a market cap of 59.1 billion [2]. - Hengbang Shares fell by 4.23%, with a total market value of 18.1 billion [2]. - Hunan Gold decreased by 4.18%, with a market capitalization of 32.2 billion [2]. - Shandong Gold dropped by 3.93%, with a market value of 162.4 billion [2]. - Sichuan Gold saw a decline of 3.80%, with a market cap of 11.8 billion [2]. - Shanjin International decreased by 3.35%, with a market capitalization of 65.7 billion [2]. - The overall trend indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold sector, with multiple companies experiencing significant losses [1].