Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Hongbing [1] - SAC Number: S0870523060002 [1] - Related Reports: "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Securities ETF", "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Bank ETF", "November Allocation Strategy for Chinese Medicine ETF" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The Golden Stocks ETF (517520.SH) managed by Yongying Fund tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index (931238.CSI), with the index abbreviation SSH Gold Stocks [3]. - From September 11 to December 12, 2025, the best convergent stock of the Golden Stocks ETF is Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), selected by considering the deviation of constituent stocks from the gold stock index and research coverage [3]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 based on the expected EPS of 2024 was close to 16 times PE. Based on 16 times PE, from 2024 to 2025 (up to December 12, 2025), most of the stock price fluctuations of Chifeng Gold did not exceed the value range defined by the fundamental value of T - 1 year and the expected fundamental value of T + 2 year. As of December 12, 2025, the expected per - share fundamental values of Chifeng Gold from 2025 to 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, and the closing price was 31.2 yuan per share, still lower than the per - share fundamental value in 2026 [3]. - According to the position of Chifeng Gold's closing price in the expected per - share fundamental value range from 2025 to 2027, the closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% [3]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio of the Golden Stocks ETF based on the dynamic position allocation of Chifeng Gold were better than those of the buy - and - hold strategy. The allocation strategy achieved an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy of the Golden Stocks ETF achieved an end - of - period return of - 0.1% with a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11] Group 3: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Golden Stocks ETF Allocation Value Analysis - The Golden Stocks ETF tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index, and the best convergent stock in the recent 3 months is Chifeng Gold [3][10]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 was 16 times PE, and its stock price fluctuations from 2024 - 2025 (up to December 12, 2025) mostly stayed within the fundamental value range. The expected per - share fundamental values from 2025 - 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, with a closing price of 31.2 yuan per share on December 12, 2025 [3][10]. - The closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% based on the fundamental value range [3][11]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the dynamic position allocation strategy based on Chifeng Gold outperformed the buy - and - hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio, achieving an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy had an end - of - period return of - 0.1% and a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the investment strategy report highlights the potential new main lines driven by policies and events, emphasizing the role of ETFs as a key investment tool in a "slow bull" market [2] - The report suggests that the 2025 surge in the innovative drug sector is a result of the resonance between policy, industry, demand, and globalization, indicating that "new" assets in the pharmaceutical sector remain a long-term investment direction [4] - The analysis focuses on five key areas for macroeconomic and investment outlooks for 2026, including supply-demand contradictions, price assessments, financial conditions, economic transformation, and overseas stock-bond allocation experiences [7][8] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see investment opportunities in 2026, with recent adjustments leading to relatively low valuations, which may restart an upward trend in 2026 [4] - The report recommends focusing on hard technology in pharmaceuticals and specific sub-sectors, including innovative drugs (leading BIC and FIC pipelines), innovative medical devices (imaging, high-value consumables, consumer devices), and medical AI [4] - Tuniu's performance dialogue will explore strategies for recovering outbound tourism, including product upgrades, channel optimization, and private domain operations to reshape competitiveness [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking wealth management industry, indicating expected performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% [40]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is expected to experience stable growth, with projections for 2026 estimating a scale increase to 35-36 trillion yuan, driven by a low interest rate environment prompting a shift from traditional savings to net-value financial products [1]. - The industry will focus more on scenario-based product development, enhancing customer engagement through tailored offerings for various life stages, such as education and retirement planning [2]. - There is a growing demand for standardized wealth management products among corporate clients, leading to the development of flexible, stable-yield products to meet liquidity management needs [2]. - Pure bond wealth management products will continue to play a stabilizing role within the wealth management framework, with expectations for gradual stabilization in their scale [3]. - Multi-asset strategies are becoming a significant growth area, allowing for diversification and enhanced yield while managing overall volatility [3]. - Wealth management funds are increasingly inclined to invest in ETF products, particularly credit bond ETFs and mixed equity-debt ETFs, due to their transparency, low fees, and liquidity [3]. - The investment scope will expand beyond traditional assets to include alternative investments such as cross-border assets, convertible bonds, public REITs, precious metals, and commodities [3]. - Wealth management institutions are expected to enhance collaboration with public funds to leverage active management capabilities, improving overall asset allocation efficiency [3]. - The licensing for wealth management subsidiaries is likely to be further relaxed, particularly benefiting regional banks in central and western China, promoting balanced financial services [5]. - Some wealth management subsidiaries will establish specialized sub-companies to explore differentiated development paths, focusing on multi-asset allocation and wealth advisory services [5]. Summary by Sections - **Current Scale and Growth**: As of October, the total scale of wealth management products reached 31.6 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery phase [1][11]. - **Performance Metrics**: The weighted average annualized yield for banking wealth management products in October was 2.88%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 120 basis points [10]. - **New Product Launches**: In October, the initial fundraising scale for newly launched products was 272.7 billion yuan, primarily consisting of fixed-income products, with the average performance benchmark for new products declining to 2.36% [18].

Core Insights - The article highlights the eighth New Fortune Best Investment Advisor Awards, showcasing the largest scale of participation with 39,893 advisors from 90 securities firms across 31 regions and 325 cities in China, likening it to the "Olympics" of investment advisory [1] - The first phase of the evaluation, focusing on "Investment Management Capability," has concluded, with the award list for the "ETF Group" released, demonstrating the professional asset allocation capabilities of advisors in the era of tool-based investment [1][11] - The competition was intense, with the top advisor achieving a cumulative return of 216.58%, significantly outperforming major indices [11][12] ETF Group Awards - The champion, Zhou Hengyi from Guotai Junan Securities, achieved a cumulative return of 216.58%, leading by over 40% [11] - The average return for the top ten advisors reached 136%, while the average return for the top 200 advisors was 76.33%, with the 200th advisor achieving a return of 60.79% [11] - In comparison, major indices saw increases of 20.61% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 35.14% for the Shenzhen Component Index, and 63.63% for the ChiNext Index during the same period [11] Market Context - Since 2025, the Chinese ETF market has experienced rapid growth, surpassing 5.6 trillion yuan, making it the largest ETF market in Asia [12] - ETFs are becoming a core tool in the asset allocation toolbox for advisors, characterized by high transparency, convenience, and low fees [12] Future Opportunities - The top 200 advisors are eligible to advance to the second phase of evaluation, competing for the title of "Best Investment Advisor" by completing a "Product Concept" submission by June 30, 2025 [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to experience short-term adjustments, but the adjustment space is relatively limited[2] - The macro timing model for November 2025 has a score of -5, indicating a high probability of adjustment for the entire A-index[19] Index Performance - The top three broad-based indices from October 27 to October 31, 2025, were: North China 50 (7.52%), CSI 1000 (1.18%), and CSI 500 (1.00%); the bottom three were: Sci-Tech 50 (-3.19%), Shanghai 50 (-1.12%), and Sci-Tech Composite Index (-0.67%)[9] - The top three style indices were: ChiNext Small Cap (1.47%), Small Cap Growth (1.45%), and Small Cap Value (1.37%); the bottom three were: Financial (CITIC Style) (-1.33%), ChiNext Large Cap (-0.73%), and Large Cap Growth (-0.40%)[10] Sector Analysis - The top three sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index were: Power Equipment (4.29%), Nonferrous Metals (2.56%), and Steel (2.55%); the bottom three were: Communication (-3.59%), Beauty Care (-2.21%), and Banking (-2.16%)[13] Fund Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated wide fluctuations in the market and the continuation of structural trends[4] - The risk factors include potential model failure based on historical data, macroeconomic underperformance, and unexpected macro events[4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 strategy conference organized by Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on smart asset allocation and leveraging strategies in the context of margin trading and ETFs [3][4]. Group 1: Conference Agenda - The conference will feature a series of presentations and discussions, starting with a welcome address by Liu Shuo, General Manager of the Margin Trading and Securities Lending Department [3]. - Key topics include global asset allocation strategies in an environment of increased risk appetite, market sentiment from a margin trading perspective, and the development of ETF research systems [4]. - A roundtable forum will include experts from various fund management companies discussing precise allocation and smart leverage strategies [4]. Group 2: ETF and Margin Trading Insights - The conference will cover volatility control in multi-asset ETF portfolios, emphasizing the importance of managing risk while maximizing returns [4]. - Strategies for enhancing investment through margin trading in the ETF era will also be a focal point, highlighting innovative approaches to leverage [4].

- The automotive parts ETF (562700.SH) tracks the CSI Automotive Parts Index (931230.CSI), with a single-day increase of 4.2% on October 15, 2025, and a cumulative return from January 1, 2025, to October 15, 2025, showing strong performance[1][8] - The optimal convergent stock for the ETF is Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ), selected based on the deviation between component stocks and the CSI Automotive Parts Index, as well as research coverage[1][8] - Huichuan Technology's stock price at its bottom on August 23, 2024, was valued at 3.5x PS based on its 2023 revenue per share, and its price fluctuated below the T+2 year consensus fundamental value from January 1, 2024, to October 15, 2025[1][8] - The fundamental value for 2027 is calculated as the consensus 2027 revenue per share multiplied by 3.5x PS, and the ETF's allocation is measured based on the relative position of the stock price within the T-1 to T+2 year fundamental value range[8] - Huichuan Technology's 2025 earnings forecast remains stable, with the highest closing price of 88.91 yuan on October 9, 2025, approaching the expected fundamental value for 2027, while the October 15 closing price exceeded the expected fundamental value for 2026 but remained below the 2027 value[9] - From July 1, 2025, to October 15, 2025, the dynamic allocation strategy for the ETF based on Huichuan Technology achieved a Sharpe ratio and return drawdown ratio better than the buy-and-hold strategy, with a terminal return of 20% and a maximum drawdown of 2.56%, compared to the buy-and-hold strategy's terminal return of 28.53% and maximum drawdown of 9.65%[2][9][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the selection of converging constituent stocks for ETF allocation based on data as of July 31, 2025, with a focus on tracking the effectiveness of the allocation strategy [2][9]. - The best converging stock for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF (588930.SH) is identified as Hongsoft Technology (688088), which has a bottom valuation of 14 times PS based on its 2023 revenue [2][9]. - The report indicates that Hongsoft Technology's stock price has mostly fluctuated below the expected fundamental value for 2027, which is calculated as the consensus expected revenue for 2027 multiplied by 14 times PS [2][9]. Group 2 - The report provides a robust profit forecast for Hongsoft Technology in 2025, with the closing price on August 27 being close to the expected fundamental value per share for 2027 [2][9]. - The average closing position from July 31 to August 27 was 23.78%, with a closing position of 10.7% on August 27 [2][9]. - From August 1 to August 27, 2025, the dynamic allocation strategy based on Hongsoft Technology yielded a Sharpe ratio slightly better than a buy-and-hold strategy, achieving a terminal return of 6.44% with a maximum drawdown of 0.71% [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The FOF funds managed by companies like Changjiang Asset Management, ICBC Credit Suisse, Guotai Fund, and Huashang Fund have demonstrated strong performance in the market, leading the industry in returns [1][12]. Group 1: Performance of FOF Funds - As of July 28, the top-performing FOF funds over the past year include Changjiang Securities with a return of 29.09%, Guotai Fund at 25.29%, and ICBC Credit Suisse at 23.32% [1][13]. - The top two FOF funds are ICBC Rui Zhi Jin Qu Stock (FOF-LOF) A with a return of 49.17% and Guotai You Xuan Ling Hang One-Year Holding Period Mixed (FOF) at 49.16% [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy of ICBC Rui Zhi Jin Qu Stock (FOF-LOF) A includes a concentrated portfolio with the top ten holdings accounting for 67.20%, indicating a focused approach [5][7]. - The fund employs a barbell strategy, balancing aggressive investments in high-growth sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals with defensive positions in gold ETFs [7][10]. Group 3: Market Insights and Adjustments - The FOF funds have shown a keen ability to adapt to market changes, such as reducing exposure to US stocks while increasing holdings in Hong Kong and A-shares [8][11]. - The funds are focusing on sectors with high growth potential, including rare earths and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and policy support [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for the FOF funds suggests a continued focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and potential for recovery, particularly in the context of policy shifts and market dynamics [12][16]. - The emphasis on dynamic asset allocation and ETF integration is expected to enhance the strategic value of FOF funds in capturing growth opportunities [12][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the financial products sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in the market, indicating that a turning point in market trends may be approaching [5][17]. - The overall market performance for the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, showed positive returns across most indices, but rapid rotation among stocks suggests a preference for holding rather than chasing hot stocks [17][20]. - The macro model for July scored -5, indicating a potential dominance of large-cap value stocks, while the overall market may experience adjustments [24]. - The technical timing model indicates a high risk level for the market, suggesting that while the trend remains positive, the relative position may be too high [17][21]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (July 7 - July 11, 2025) - Major broad indices showed varied performance, with the top three being the Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (2.99%), CSI 1000 (2.36%), and the ChiNext Index (2.36%) [10]. - Style indices also varied, with small-cap value (2.71%) and small-cap growth (2.31%) leading, while large-cap value (-0.18%) lagged [11]. - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, real estate (6.12%), steel (4.41%), and non-bank financials (3.96%) performed best, while coal (-1.08%) and banks (-1.00%) underperformed [15]. A-share Market Outlook (July 14 - July 18, 2025) - The report suggests a focus on structural changes, with a potential turning point in market trends [17]. - The macro model indicates that the market may experience adjustments, with a focus on performance post-earnings announcements [17][24]. - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, anticipating a relatively volatile market with ongoing structural opportunities [65][66]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report advocates for a balanced ETF allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of selecting funds with a minimum one-year establishment and a fund size exceeding 100 million [65][66].