银河证券研报认为，1-2月处于我国传统春节消费淡季，国内销量阶段性回落，展望春节后，复产复工 有序推进，全国首个A级车展北京车展临近（4月24日—5月3日），车企即将进入2026年上半年旗舰新 品发布周期，多款新车有望上市，市场迎来新一轮密集供给，有望带动市场需求回暖，新能源渗透率有 望触底反弹。 新能源ETF紧密跟踪中证新能源指数，中证新能源指数选取涉及可再生能源生产、新能源应用、新能源 存储以及新能源交互设备等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映新能源产业相关上市公司证券的 整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、阳光电源、特变电工、华友钴业、隆基绿能、亿纬锂 能、赣锋锂业、中国核电、先导智能、金风科技。 新能源ETF(516160)，场外联接(A类：012831；C类：012832；南方中证新能源ETF联接I：021057)。 截至2026年2月25日 13:46，新能源ETF(516160)上涨2.24%，盘中换手2.88%，成交2.01亿元。跟踪指数 中证新能源指数成分股厦门钨业上涨8.33%，天华新能上涨7.61%，中矿资源上涨7.32%，德业股份，横 店东磁等个股跟涨。 消息面上，2月11日 ...

内容概况：从市场规模来看，中国光伏背板行业市场规模整体呈现波动态势。2015-2017年，受益于光 伏行业政策支持与装机规模扩大，光伏背板市场规模逐年增长。2018-2019年受"531新政"调整及产业链 价格下行影响，市场规模出现阶段性回调。2020年后，在"双碳"目标推动及光伏平价上网进程加速的背 景下，下游装机需求复苏带动光伏背板市场回升，2021年至2022年规模持续增长，2022年达到85亿元。 2023年至2024年，受双玻组件渗透率快速提升、传统背板价格竞争加剧以及全球光伏供应链阶段性调整 等多重因素影响，市场规模有所回落。作为光伏背板的重要组成部分，随着玻璃背板技术发展与市场接 受度提升，有望为行业带来新的增长动力与结构性机会。 相关上市企业：中来股份（300393）、福斯特（603806）、赛伍技术（603212）、明冠新材 （688560）、激智科技（300566）、回天新材（300041）、璞泰来（603659）、巨化股份（600160）、 隆基绿能（601012）、特变电工（600089）等。 相关企业：苏州弘道新材料有限公司、苏州佳尔特新材料科技股份有限公司、康维明工程薄膜（张家 港 ...

● 本报记者 刘英杰 太空光伏概念持续升温，正成为备受资本市场瞩目的新赛道。Wind数据显示，万得光伏概念指数2月24 日上涨1.70%。指数成分股中，协鑫集成、南网能源、嘉泽新能涨停，石英股份涨超9%，国晟科技、金 开新能、电投绿能等跟涨。 分析人士认为，在马斯克"太空光伏"战略以及国内卫星互联网加速建设的双重催化下，光伏产业正迎来 全新的应用场景与增量空间。 在调整出口退税政策方面，财政部、税务总局1月9日发布的《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公 告》指出，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。这是继2024年11月将部分光伏设备出 口退税率由13%下调至9%后的又一次重要调整。中国光伏行业协会认为，此举有助于推动国外市场价 格理性回归，降低贸易摩擦风险。 在深化电力市场改革方面，国务院办公厅日前印发《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，面 对电力生产方式、消费模式、产业结构发生的巨大变化，《意见》站在新的历史起点上，围绕新形势新 情况新要求，对未来5-10年完善全国统一电力市场体系的重点任务进行了安排部署。此外，工业和信息 化部等五部门联合印发《工业绿色微电网建设与应用指南（20 ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 当地时间 1 月 28 日上午，中国平煤神马集团、隆基绿能公司与赞比亚政府在赞比亚总统府正式签署可 再生能源合作谅解备忘录，拟在未来三年共同投资建设 1000 兆瓦太阳能发电项目。赞比亚总统哈凯恩德·希 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,395 | 60 | -105 | -360 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 208,055 | 34,931 | -127,364 | -37,881 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

光伏行业洗牌加剧：跨界企业退市破产，国资"掐尖"接盘优质资产，格局重塑。 2025年4月，ST嘉寓和ST旭蓝发布了终止上市公告，成为A股当年首批面值退市的光伏企业 。与此同时，甘肃金刚光伏因逾8000万元借款逾期 被法院强制执行，四家下属公司申请重整 。但在另一个维度，曾折戟IPO的一道新能却迎来了新主人——衢州国资通过旗下公司取得不少于 34.05%的表决权，实现单独控股 。同样是光伏企业，有人倒在黎明前的血泊中，有人在国资"输血"后获得喘息。 2025光伏行业部分破产企业： | 时间 | 174 | 破产类型 | No | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1月3日 | 宿迁阳力能光伏有限公司 | 破产申请 | 江苏宿计 | | 1月7日 | 梓亦光伏(上海)有限公司 | 破产申请 | 上海 | | 1月9日 | 深圳市英威腾交通技术有限公司 | 破禁止鋁 | 广东深圳 | | 4月2日 | 太一光伏科技(常州)有限公司 | 破产申请 | 江苏常外 | | 4月8日 | 南阳德才光伏发电有限公司 | 破产申请 | 河南方城 | | 4月28日 | 华东光能科技(徐州)有限公司 | 破 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - The State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System," aiming to establish a unified electricity market by 2030, with market transactions accounting for about 70% of total electricity consumption [4][40] - The report highlights the performance of the power equipment sector, which has seen a year-to-date increase of 9.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.82 percentage points [11][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of new operational entities like virtual power plants and smart microgrids in participating flexibly in the electricity market [45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of February 12, 2026, the power equipment sector rose by 4.97% over the past two weeks, ranking third among 31 sectors [11] - The wind power equipment sector decreased by 3.07%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector increased by 3.93% [18][20] Valuation and Industry Data - As of February 12, 2026, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector is 36.66 times, with sub-sectors like the battery sector at 33.19 times and the photovoltaic sector at 34.99 times [25] - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for various sub-sectors, indicating significant variations in PE ratios compared to their historical averages [25] Industry News - The report discusses the significant growth in renewable energy installations, with a total installed capacity of 2.34 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, accounting for 60% of the national power generation capacity [40] - It also notes the government's focus on upgrading traditional industries and promoting new energy sectors, including hydrogen energy [40] Company Announcements - The report includes recent announcements from companies in the sector, such as government subsidies received by various firms, indicating ongoing support for the industry [43]

Core Viewpoint - The solar diffusion furnace industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 6.05 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, driven by the expansion of the photovoltaic industry and supportive government policies [1][6]. Industry Overview - Solar diffusion furnaces are essential for producing crystalline silicon solar cells, specifically for forming PN junctions, which are critical for enhancing cell efficiency [2]. - The main types of solar diffusion furnaces are vertical and horizontal, each offering distinct advantages in terms of production efficiency and space utilization [2]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the solar diffusion furnace industry includes quartz components, heating systems, temperature control systems, and gas control systems, with quartz components being crucial for stability and efficiency [3]. - The midstream involves the manufacturing of solar diffusion furnaces, while the downstream primarily serves the photovoltaic industry, specifically in solar cell and module production [3]. Current Development - The solar diffusion furnace market is benefiting from China's commitment to renewable energy, with solar power generation capacity increasing significantly from 204.2 GW in 2019 to an expected 1,161.2 GW by the end of 2025, marking a 41.90% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The production of solar cells is projected to reach 83,274.3 MW by 2025, a 7.60% increase from the previous year, driven by government subsidies and technological advancements [5]. Competitive Landscape - The solar diffusion furnace industry has high entry barriers, making it difficult for new entrants to compete. Leading companies leverage technology, supply chains, and customer resources to maintain competitive advantages [7]. - Key players in the industry include North Huachuang, Jiejia Weichuang, and Jing Sheng Machinery, among others, with North Huachuang reporting a revenue increase of 32.97% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025 [7][8]. Industry Trends - The rapid development of the solar diffusion furnace industry is leading to accelerated industry consolidation, with smaller companies lacking core technologies being phased out, while stronger companies invest in R&D and improve production processes [9]. - Domestic companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, expanding their presence through partnerships and participation in global trade shows, capitalizing on their competitive pricing and responsive service [10].

Core Viewpoint - The silicon wafer prices remain stable this week, with no significant changes observed in the market due to weak demand and pre-holiday purchasing behavior [1][2]. Price Summary - N-type G10L silicon wafer (182*183.75mm/130μm) average transaction price is 1.20 CNY per piece, N-type G12R silicon wafer (182*210mm/130μm) is 1.26 CNY per piece, and N-type G12 silicon wafer (210*210mm/130μm) is 1.45 CNY per piece, all unchanged from last week [1][3]. - The mainstream price for battery cells is between 0.41-0.45 CNY/W, and for modules, it is between 0.71-0.75 CNY/W, also remaining stable compared to the previous week [1]. Market Activity - The silicon wafer market has seen general transaction activity, with companies halting purchasing orders ahead of the holiday, leading to minimal transactions [1]. - The overall operating rate in the industry has slightly decreased, with leading companies operating at 46% and 45%, while integrated companies are at 50%-60%, and other companies range from 50%-70% [1]. Future Outlook - In the short term, the silicon wafer market is expected to remain in a stalemate between upstream price support and downstream price pressure, with prices likely to stabilize [2]. - After the Spring Festival holiday, as terminal installation projects resume, there is potential for a slight market recovery driven by improved downstream demand for silicon wafers [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is facing a significant cost increase due to soaring silver prices, which have become a critical material for battery metallization, impacting profit margins and pricing strategies across the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Price Impact - Silver prices have shown a sharp increase, with futures reaching 32,400 yuan/kg and spot prices hitting $121.64/oz by the end of January 2026, leading to a substantial rise in costs for photovoltaic components [2]. - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector has surged, consuming over 6,000 tons annually since 2020, accounting for nearly 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The cost of silver paste has increased, raising the complete cost of battery cells to over 0.5 yuan/W, with module costs exceeding 0.9 yuan/W [2][3]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profit Margins - The proportion of silver in photovoltaic raw material costs has risen from approximately 9% in 2024 to over 30%, becoming the largest cost component outside of silicon [3]. - The rising raw material costs combined with low terminal product prices have created a "scissors gap," severely squeezing profit margins, contributing to widespread industry losses in 2025 [4]. - As of early February 2026, silver prices experienced volatility, with futures dropping to 20,600 yuan/kg, leading to a decrease in battery and module prices [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Order Visibility - Domestic market orders are declining, with limited visibility on new contracts, while overseas markets are expected to dominate shipments in Q1 2026 due to export tax influences [5]. - The procurement attitude is cautious amid weak seasonal demand and recent price increases in components, resulting in insufficient order visibility for Q1 2026 [5]. Group 4: Cost Reduction Strategies - Companies are pursuing technological upgrades to reduce costs, with Longi Green Energy focusing on "cheap metalization" technology for mass production by Q2 2026 [6][8]. - Aiko Solar has implemented silver-free technology, significantly reducing costs and avoiding the impact of silver price fluctuations [8]. - The industry is exploring pathways for cost reduction through the substitution of cheaper metals and process optimizations, aiming for a silver consumption reduction of 10% to 20% [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The silver price is expected to remain high with fluctuations, driven by an expanding supply-demand gap and increased industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [9]. - The impact of the "space photovoltaic" concept on silver demand is currently limited, with expectations for a 10% decrease in global silver usage in photovoltaics in 2026 compared to 2025 [9].