隆基绿能（601012.SH）2025 年三季报点评 25Q3 环比减亏，坚定 BC 技术领先 2025 年 11 月 04 日 事件：2025 年 10 月 30 日，公司发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度， 公司实现营业收入 509.15 亿元，同比-13.10%；归母净亏损为 34.03 亿元， 较上年同期减亏；扣非净亏损为 44.54 亿元，较上年同期减亏。 2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 181.01 亿元，同比-9.78%，环比-5.53%；归母 净亏损为 8.34 亿元，亏损同环比收窄；扣非净亏损为 11.50 亿元，亏损同环 比收窄。2025Q3 计提资产减值准备 8.94 亿元，影响当期利润。 ➢ 25Q3 环比减亏，静待"反内卷"下价格修复。受光伏行业主要产品市 场销售价格跌破行业成本线的竞争环境影响，2025 年前三季度公司面临经营 亏损。25 年 7 月初以来，随着光伏"反内卷"推进，为符合"不低于成本销 售"的价格法规要求，硅料企业持续提价至综合成本线之上，根据硅业分 会， 9 月底 N 型复投料、颗粒硅均价分别为 5.32、5.05 万元/吨，相比 6 月 底均价分别上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share photovoltaic equipment sector has seen significant gains in late October, with a 4.5% increase from October 29 to October 31, followed by a 2.3% rise on November 3, despite overall market challenges [1] Summary by Category Market Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector achieved nearly a 3% increase in October, contrasting with the overall market downturn, particularly the Shenzhen Composite Index [1] - Leading companies such as Longi Green Energy, Canadian Solar, and JA Solar have experienced consecutive trading halts due to rising stock prices [1] Price Trends - In Q3, the prices of key photovoltaic materials (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules) saw their largest increase in nearly three years, with silicon materials and wafers rising over 40% [1] - However, in October, prices for silicon wafers and battery cells declined, while silicon materials saw only a slight increase amid low transaction volumes [1] Silicon Material Insights - As of the end of October, the average trading price for dense silicon was 52 CNY/kg, up 1.96% month-on-month and 33.33% year-to-date, but down 20% compared to early 2024 [2] - Granular silicon's average trading price was 50 CNY/kg, with a monthly increase of 2.04% and a year-to-date increase of 38.89% [2] Silicon Wafer Insights - The average trading price for N-type 182-183.75mm silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.35 CNY/piece, with a year-to-date increase of 28.57% [5] - The 182*210mm N-type silicon wafers saw a price drop of 3.57% in October, with a year-to-date increase of only 20.54% [5] Battery Cell Insights - The average trading price for N-type 182-183.75mm TOPCon battery cells fell by 3.13% in October to 0.31 CNY/W, although it remains 10.71% higher than at the beginning of the year [10] - The N-type 182*210mm TOPCon battery cells also experienced a price drop, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.72% [8] Module Insights - TOPCon module prices remained stagnant at 0.693 CNY/W, while HJT modules were priced at 0.83 CNY/W, indicating no change in October [12] - The current price of TOPCon modules is only slightly above the historical low of 0.68 CNY/W, reflecting ongoing struggles in the module segment [12] Financial Performance - The photovoltaic sector reported a net profit of 758 million CNY in Q3, a significant recovery from previous losses, although many companies still face challenges in their component businesses [14] - Despite some companies expecting to turn profits in Q4 or next year, uncertainties remain regarding price trends and overall performance [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent market performance of the power equipment and new energy industry over the past year, indicating a stable outlook amidst ongoing developments in technology and policy [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of multi-energy integration, including wind, solar, water, and nuclear energy, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - The report notes that the National Energy Administration has set key tasks for the "14th Five-Year" period, focusing on expanding new energy supply, promoting integrated development, and enhancing consumption levels [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Preferred Stocks - The report lists several preferred stocks with ratings, including: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Daqian Energy (688303.SH) - Buy - B - Fulete (601865.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnet (002056.SZ) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Deye Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) - Buy - A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy - B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy - A - Bowei Alloy (601137.SH) - Buy - A [2]. Price Tracking - The report provides price tracking for various components in the industry: - Polysilicon prices remain stable at 52.0 CNY/kg for dense materials and 50.0 CNY/kg for granular silicon [5]. - Silicon wafer prices are stable, with 182-183.75mm N-type wafers priced at 1.35 CNY/piece and 210mm N-type wafers at 1.70 CNY/piece [6]. - Battery cell prices show a slight decrease for 182-183.75mm N-type cells to 0.310 CNY/W, while 210mm N-type cells remain stable [6]. - Module prices are stable across various types, with 182*182-210mm TOPCon double-glass modules priced at 0.693 CNY/W [7]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on specific sectors: - BC new technology direction: Aishuo Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side direction: Daqian Energy, Fulete - Light storage direction: Sungrow Power Supply, Deye Co., Ltd. - Power market direction: Langxin Group - Domestic substitution direction: Quartz Co., Ltd. - Overseas layout direction: Hengdian East Magnet, Bowei Alloy [8].

Core Insights - Chinese renewable energy and storage companies are increasingly entering South Asian markets, particularly India and Bangladesh, establishing local manufacturing facilities and securing significant contracts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Entry and Localization - Chinese companies are major suppliers in India's solar and wind energy markets, with firms like JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and Trina Solar dominating the solar component supply [2]. - In wind energy, leading companies such as Envision Energy and SANY Heavy Industry have secured large contracts, with Envision becoming one of the largest wind turbine suppliers in India [2]. - The localization process has begun, with companies like Sungrow Power Supply establishing factories in Bangalore with an annual capacity of 3 GW, and Envision Energy building manufacturing facilities in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu [2]. Group 2: Market Potential and Government Support - India faces significant electricity shortages and aims to diversify its energy structure, with a target of achieving 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 [5][6]. - The Indian government has implemented various policies to support renewable energy, including financial incentives and requirements for energy storage systems in solar projects [6]. - The profit margins in the Indian market are attractive for Chinese companies, with reports indicating that the gross margin for wind turbine orders in India is higher than domestic margins by over five percentage points [7]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The investment environment in India is complex, with macro policy risks stemming from changes in foreign direct investment regulations that require prior government approval for Chinese investments [9]. - Discriminatory policies aimed at reducing import dependency pose risks, such as the reintroduction of approval lists that exclude Chinese manufacturers from government projects [11]. - The Indian government's push for localization presents challenges, as foreign companies may face increasing demands for local investment and technology transfer [12].

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 11 月 4 日 601012.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 21.11 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 36.8 17.3 33.9 6.9 相对上证综指 15.6 15.4 23.3 (13.6) 发行股数 (百万) 7,578.06 (25%) (16%) (6%) 3% 13% 23% Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 隆基绿能 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 7,578.05 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 159,972.85 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 3,171.89 | | 主要股东 | | | 李振国 | 14.08% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 10 月 31 日收市价为标准 《隆基绿能》20241109 《隆基绿能》2024051 ...

业绩韧性凸显，战略定力锚定价值航向 财报显示，2025年1-9月，隆基绿能实现营业收入509.15亿元，实现了连续两个季度大幅减亏，累计归 属于母公司的净利润同比减亏约48%。这一积极趋势早在半年报中已初露端倪：2025年上半年，公司净 亏损为25.69亿元，但较上年同期已大幅减亏26.61亿元。细分至第二季度，受益于国内光伏市场强劲的 抢装需求以及公司主要产品成本的持续下降，单季营业收入环比增长约40%，净亏损环比收窄21%，并 实现了经营性现金流净额和毛利率的转正。毛利率回升，费用管控见效。第三季度销售毛利率提升至 4.89%，较第二季度的1.85%环比改善3.31 个百分点，反映产品结构优化与成本控制成效显现。前三季 度累计资产减值损失为20.61亿元，同比大幅下降。 第一财经注意到，为应对行业挑战，隆基绿能深入推行"以客户为中心"的价值创造体系，通过多举措管 理创新与降本增效，取得了显著成效。 报告期内，公司主要产品的单位制造成本实现较快下降，期间费用得到有效控制，资产减值损失也同比 大幅减少。期间费用管控持续见效，第三季度销售、管理、财务三费合计12.51 亿元，占营收比重约 6.91%；前三季度， ...

Core Viewpoint - The social security fund's latest holdings in A-shares reveal significant investment trends, with a total market value of approximately 552.72 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of about 49.81 billion yuan from the previous quarter [2][4]. Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the social security fund was a top ten shareholder in 622 A-share companies, with a total holding value of approximately 552.72 billion yuan, up from 502.91 billion yuan at the end of Q2 [2][4]. - The fund initiated positions in 226 new stocks, increased holdings in 153 stocks, and reduced holdings in 135 stocks, while maintaining positions in 108 stocks [12][4]. - The banking sector accounted for the largest portion of the fund's holdings, with a market value of 270.06 billion yuan, followed by the non-bank financial sector at approximately 63.04 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 2: Performance of Key Stocks - Among the 622 companies, 133 had a market value exceeding 500 million yuan, and 55 had a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan, collectively accounting for 76.67% of the total holdings [4]. - The top five stocks with a market value exceeding 10 billion yuan were predominantly financial stocks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Pacific Insurance, and China Communications Bank [4][5]. - Agricultural Bank of China was the largest holding, valued at 156.89 billion yuan, with a strong performance of 38.23% increase since July [4][5]. Group 3: New Energy Sector Focus - The social security fund maintained a significant focus on the new energy sector, with 20 companies in this field having a market value exceeding 300 million yuan, averaging a 45.92% increase since July [9]. - Key stocks in the new energy sector, such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Sanyuan Electric, saw increases exceeding 80% since July [9][10]. - The fund's investments in the new energy sector reflect a strategic allocation despite the majority of holdings being in the banking and non-bank financial sectors [9][10]. Group 4: Notable Increases in Holdings - The fund significantly increased its holdings in several traditional industry stocks, with notable increases exceeding 50% in companies like Three Trees and Oriental Yuhong [17]. - The largest increase was seen in Guangxin Co., with a 277.97% increase in holdings, reflecting a strategic shift towards agricultural chemicals [16][17]. - Other companies with substantial increases included New Strong Union and Guoen Co., with increases of 251.17% and 230.28%, respectively [17][16].

证券研究报告 BC 出货放量驱动盈利改善 隆基绿能 (601012 CH) 2025 年 11 月 03 日│中国内地 电源设备 10 月 28 日，央视财经频道《经济半小时》播出专题报道《破立之间：高质 量发展的产业实践 从卷价格到卷创新的光伏》，聚焦光伏产业"从卷价格 到卷创新"。隆基绿能为全球硅片与组件双龙头，以 BC 技术引领行业技术 创新。9M25 实现营收 509.15 亿元（同比-13.10%），归母净利-34.03 亿元 （同比减亏 31.01 亿元）；3Q25 实现营收 181.01 亿元（同/环比 -9.78%/-5.53%），归母净利-8.34 亿元（同/环比减亏 4.27/2.99 亿元）。3Q25 归母净利环比减亏，主要系硅片经营改善，以及 BC 出货放量。国内反内卷 进展顺利，有望驱动产业链盈利修复，公司硅片龙头地位稳固，BC 组件或 贡献超额盈利，维持"买入"评级。 硅片：反内卷驱动价格回升，硅片业务盈利改善 9M25 公司实现硅片外销 38.15GW，其中 3Q25 外销 13.4GW，环比持平。 受益于反内卷驱动，硅料价格大幅回升，逐步传导至硅片环节，根据 Infolink ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the renewable energy sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major companies in the energy storage sector have shown impressive Q3 performance, with significant year-on-year profit growth [7]. - The photovoltaic sector has seen a sequential improvement in profitability, although challenges remain due to market pressures [28][29]. - The wind energy sector is experiencing robust growth, particularly with significant overseas contracts being secured [6][25]. Summary by Sections Wind Energy - Goldwind Technology has signed a contract for a 3GW wind power project in Saudi Arabia, providing a full lifecycle solution from equipment to operation [6][11]. - The wind index increased by 1.12% in the week of October 27-31, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points, with a current PE TTM of 26.07 [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantage of domestic large-capacity wind turbine models in international markets [11][25]. Photovoltaic - Major photovoltaic companies reported Q3 losses, but with a reduction in losses compared to previous quarters; Longi Green Energy reported a loss of 830 million yuan, a reduction of 300 million yuan [28][27]. - The photovoltaic equipment index rose by 8.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.08 percentage points, with a current PE TTM of 48.20 [30]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to stabilized prices in the photovoltaic supply chain and a reduction in inventory impairment losses [28][29]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - Major energy storage companies reported strong Q3 results, with Sunshine Power's net profit increasing by 56.34% year-on-year [7]. - The report notes that the domestic energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of approximately 800GWh over the next three years [7]. - The global energy storage market is anticipated to grow at a rate of 40-50% by 2026, indicating strong demand in both domestic and international markets [7].

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 45% increase in new installed capacity in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking nearly a 20-fold increase since 2015 [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes green transformation as a core goal, aiming to consolidate and expand the advantages of the wind and photovoltaic industries [1] - The industry is undergoing profound changes with the transition from P-type to N-type monocrystalline silicon technology, expected to capture over 96.9% market share by 2025, alongside advancements in TOPCon, HJT, and BC technologies [1] Industry Developments - A coalition of 17 major companies is being formed to address supply-side issues, focusing on the polysilicon segment through capacity coordination, quality grading, and self-discipline in production cuts [2] - The "anti-involution" policies initiated since mid-2025 have led to a significant expansion of participating entities and a notable recovery in product prices, with the polysilicon industry starting to increase prices above the comprehensive cost line in Q3 2025 [2] Related Companies - Key companies in the photovoltaic supply chain include GCL-Poly Energy (03800), Xinte Energy (01799), Flat Glass Group (601865), Xinyi Solar (00968), Fuyao Glass (600660), and CAISSA New Energy (600876) [3]