Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (601111.SH) announced the resignation of Chairman Ma Chongxian due to work adjustments, confirming no disagreements with the company [1] Group 1 - The company held a board meeting on the same day to elect Liu Tiexiang as the new chairman [1] - Liu Tiexiang will also serve as the chairman of the board's strategy and investment committee, the nomination committee, and a member of the aviation safety committee [1]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights a significant increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a total of 2.433 billion trips made, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [1] Group 1: Travel Volume and Trends - The total cross-regional travel volume during the eight-day holiday reached 2.433 billion trips, with an average daily increase of 6.3% year-on-year and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [1] - The breakdown of travel modes shows that railway, road, civil aviation, and water transport accounted for 154 million, 2.248 billion, 19.14 million, and 11.66 million trips respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.6%, 6.6%, 3.3%, and 4.1% [1] - Self-driving trips remained the dominant mode of travel, with an average of 243 million trips per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and accounting for approximately 80% of total travel volume [1] Group 2: Aviation Performance - Despite a high base from the previous year, civil aviation passenger flow still saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3% during the holiday, with an average daily passenger flow of 1.69 million flights, marking a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year and a 15.4% increase compared to 2019 [2] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class during the holiday was 849 yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a minor decrease of 1.4% compared to 2019 [3] Group 3: Travel Behavior and Preferences - There was a notable increase in long-distance travel orders, with domestic long-distance travel orders rising by 3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - International travel saw a significant uptick, with outbound ticket bookings for popular destinations increasing by over 30% year-on-year, particularly in regions like Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [4] Group 4: Tourism Revenue and Consumer Spending - Domestic tourism during the holiday reached 888 million trips, with total spending amounting to 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [5] - The average tourism expenditure per person was 911.1 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year but recovering to 97.4% of the level seen in 2019 [5] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to enter a travel off-season, but there may be a recovery in business travel demand compared to the previous year [6] - The report suggests that if travel demand continues to grow steadily, it could lead to a recovery in airline revenues, with potential for significant profit growth for airlines like Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" [2]. Core Insights - The domestic aviation market has shown strong performance during the National Day holiday, with passenger transport volume averaging approximately 2.15 million people per day, a year-on-year increase of 31% compared to 2019 and 4% compared to 2024 [1]. - The average ticket price (including fuel) has increased by 7% compared to 2019 and 3% compared to 2024, indicating a positive trend in pricing despite some regional weather disruptions [1]. - The industry is expected to enter a "golden era" over the next 5-10 years, driven by supply chain improvements and increasing demand, with major airlines likely to continue reporting strong earnings [1]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - Daily average domestic passenger transport volume: 2.15 million, +31% YoY vs. 2019, +4% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. - Daily average domestic flight volume: 14,500 flights, +19% YoY vs. 2019, +2% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. - International passenger transport volume: 380,000, -13% YoY vs. 2019, +11% YoY vs. 2024 [1]. Market Perception - There are misconceptions regarding the recovery of Boeing and Airbus production capacity, which may not reverse the aging trend of aircraft [1]. - Current low domestic ticket prices do not necessarily correlate with poor airline profitability, as many airlines have seen international market recovery exceeding pre-pandemic levels [1]. Future Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to experience significant improvements in profitability, with a shift from losses to profitability anticipated in the coming years [1]. - The supply chain issues leading to aircraft shortages are projected to persist for 5-10 years, creating a favorable environment for airlines [1]. Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on the aviation sector is recommended, with specific attention to airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, among others [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [8]. Core Insights - The National Day holiday data for the aviation industry exceeded expectations, signaling an upcoming golden era for airlines. The domestic aviation market showed stable performance despite adverse weather conditions, with daily passenger transport volume averaging approximately 2.15 million, a 31% increase compared to 2019 and a 4% increase compared to 2024 [2]. - The growth in passenger volume is primarily dependent on the increase in aircraft numbers, and a low growth rate in passenger volume amidst high load factors is seen as a positive indicator for profitability. If fleet size does not grow, passenger volume may stagnate or decline, leading to potential supply-demand mismatches and price fluctuations [2]. - The report highlights two misconceptions in the market: first, the belief that the recovery of Boeing and Airbus production capacity will reverse the aging trend of aircraft; second, the notion that lower ticket prices will negatively impact airline profitability. The report argues that many domestic airlines have already surpassed 2019 levels in international market recovery, and as long as the reduction in unit costs exceeds the decline in unit revenues, airline profitability will improve [2]. - The Chinese civil aviation sector is entering a golden age, expected to last 5-10 years, driven by supply chain improvements. Short-term indicators include record profits for major airlines during the National Day holiday, while medium-term expectations include a transition from losses to profitability for airlines [2]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on the aviation sector, with a strong supply-side logic and elastic demand. Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, along with global aircraft leasing companies and airport sectors showing continuous recovery [2][3]. Summary by Sections - **Passenger Transport Data**: Daily domestic passenger transport volume reached approximately 2.15 million, with a 31% increase from 2019 and a 4% increase from 2024. Daily domestic flight volume averaged about 14,500 flights, a 19% increase from 2019 and a 2% increase from 2024 [2]. - **International Market Performance**: Daily international passenger transport volume averaged around 380,000, a 13% decrease from 2019 but an 11% increase from 2024. The average ticket price for international flights decreased by 12% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Company Valuation Table**: Key companies in the aviation sector, such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, have been rated as "Outperform" or "Buy," with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth indicating strong future performance [3].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00753 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a rise of 0.82% on October 9, with Southern Airlines leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.17, up by 1.98% with a trading volume of 1.2 million shares and a transaction value of 724 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.22, up by 1.69% with a trading volume of 2.3 million shares and a transaction value of 941 million yuan [1]. - Hainan Airlines (600221) closed at 1.64, up by 1.23% with a trading volume of 4.6 million shares and a transaction value of 752 million yuan [1]. - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 14.37, down by 0.62% with a trading volume of 19,700 shares and a transaction value of 28.2 million yuan [2]. - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.44, down by 0.42% with a trading volume of 201,000 shares and a transaction value of 18.9 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 119 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 27.67 million yuan [2]. - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 33.72 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 36.14 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Hainan Airlines (600221) experienced a net inflow of 22.03 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 231,800 yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, A-shares opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points, marking a 10-year high, and nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rising [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with significant gains across various sectors [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, indicating strong market sentiment [1] Group 2: Broker Recommendations - On September 30, 48 listed companies received recommendations from brokers [1] - Brokers set target prices for these companies, with 21 instances of target price increases noted [1] - The companies with the highest target price increases included China National Airlines, with a target price increase of 70.92%, followed by Weikang Medical at 56.81%, and Tianan New Materials at 43.59% [1]

航空股早盘普遍反弹，截至发稿，南方航空（600029）(01055)涨5.77%，报4.03港元；中国国航 （601111）(00753)涨4.24%，报5.65港元；东方航空(00670)涨3.97%，报3.14港元。 消息面上，据中国交通运输部，10月1日至8日（国庆中秋假期），累计全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达 到24.32亿人次，创历史同期新高。另外，中金指出，航司数据方面，10.1-10.7日国内航司日均客流量 同比增长3%，平均单价同比减少4%，对比五一假期（客运量同比增长13%，平均单价下滑9%）客运量 同比增速收窄。 招商证券日前研报指出，近期民航多次强调"反内卷"，7月22日，2025年全国民航年中工作电视电话会 议上，围绕扎实做好2025年下半年民航工作，宋志勇提出九点要求，其中第三点要求加快构建民航领域 统一大市场，综合整治行业"内卷式"竞争。今年以来板块总体走势较弱，关注Q4低基数下供需修 复、"反内卷"政策及原油增产等对股价的催化作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The airline sector is experiencing a collective decline in stock prices, attributed to ongoing cost pressures, increased competition, and weak pricing power, which are impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Southern Airlines (600029) fell by 4.53%, trading at HKD 3.79 [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) decreased by 3.5%, trading at HKD 3.03 [1] - Air China (601111) dropped by 2.68%, trading at HKD 5.45 [1] - Meilan Airport (00357) declined by 1.42%, trading at HKD 10.43 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which is lower than expected, leading to a recovery in oil prices [1] - JPMorgan's report indicates that the airline sector has underperformed the market this year due to cost pressures and competitive dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the recent rebound in airline stock prices remains uncertain as the industry is approaching a low season [1] - The impact of anti-competition measures and related regulations is limited, and these measures are unlikely to significantly improve pricing levels [1] - The forecast for prices from 2025 to 2027 is expected to remain flat [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 8 日 供给增速维持低位，旺季客座率创新高 航空行业 2025 年 8 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注： 8 月行业整体供需增速持续放缓，客座率创新高。结构上看，国内 维持较低增速，国际线受去年基数逐步正常化影响增速持续放缓。 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济下行、人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、重大自然灾害 等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3091.3 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2874.2 | 3.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.1 10.0 18.5 相对表现 -4.3 -9.4 3.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Oct/24 Jan/25 May/25 Sep/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—关注 头部高速超跌配置机会，民航票价同 比大幅增长（ 20250928 ） 》 2025-09-28 ...