Core Viewpoint - The airline sector is experiencing a collective decline in stock prices, attributed to ongoing cost pressures, increased competition, and weak pricing power, which are impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Southern Airlines (600029) fell by 4.53%, trading at HKD 3.79 [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) decreased by 3.5%, trading at HKD 3.03 [1] - Air China (601111) dropped by 2.68%, trading at HKD 5.45 [1] - Meilan Airport (00357) declined by 1.42%, trading at HKD 10.43 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which is lower than expected, leading to a recovery in oil prices [1] - JPMorgan's report indicates that the airline sector has underperformed the market this year due to cost pressures and competitive dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the recent rebound in airline stock prices remains uncertain as the industry is approaching a low season [1] - The impact of anti-competition measures and related regulations is limited, and these measures are unlikely to significantly improve pricing levels [1] - The forecast for prices from 2025 to 2027 is expected to remain flat [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 8 日 供给增速维持低位，旺季客座率创新高 航空行业 2025 年 8 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注： 8 月行业整体供需增速持续放缓，客座率创新高。结构上看，国内 维持较低增速，国际线受去年基数逐步正常化影响增速持续放缓。 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济下行、人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、重大自然灾害 等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3091.3 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2874.2 | 3.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.1 10.0 18.5 相对表现 -4.3 -9.4 3.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Oct/24 Jan/25 May/25 Sep/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—关注 头部高速超跌配置机会，民航票价同 比大幅增长（ 20250928 ） 》 2025-09-28 ...

作者 | 李秋悦 编辑 ｜ 江江 然而，当"等等党"在社交媒体上发帖跟评骂航司、祈祷机票价格临期"大跳水"的时候，有一群人却反其 道而行之—— 他们蹲守在直播间为未来几个月的机票买单，甚至像囤纸巾一样囤机票。 "200元飞韩国，直飞冰点价！" ，， "350元往返曼谷，飞莫斯科8小时单程才600元。" "宝宝们，之前想走不敢走，现在说就能走。" 视觉 | 诺言 "薛定谔"的机票价格，到底什么时候买机票最便宜？ 不少人是"等等党"，信奉机票越晚买越便宜。 200多元飞东南亚、400多块飞日本……近期，打开各大社交平台的出行直播间，不少网友第一反应 是"系统bug了吗"，但事实是，多家航空公司确实在直播间推出了令人瞠目结舌的国际机票"骨折价"机票 折扣。 韩国单次往返机票低至200元起 事实上，近些年，越来越多的航空公司开始在直播间卖机票。开播次数也越来越频繁，部分航空公司一 个月能有八九场直播。 此外，在社交媒体平台上，一名网友发帖称，从四川成都飞泰国曼谷的飞机票仅需19元。相关截图显 示，9月14日21时55分从天府机场T1出发到曼谷素万那普机场的票价为19元起，不过还需要支付税费。 | 21:27 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector in Hong Kong and mainland China has underperformed the market this year due to cost pressures, intensified competition, and weak pricing power, leading to profit constraints. Recent stock price rebounds are attributed to strong travel demand expectations for the October Golden Week and price stabilization, but the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain as the industry approaches the off-peak season [1] Industry Summary - The aviation sector is facing challenges from cost pressures and competition, which have negatively impacted profitability [1] - Regulatory measures aimed at reducing competition have had limited effects on improving pricing levels [1] - The forecast for ticket prices remains flat from 2025 to 2027, reflecting weak economic conditions and the continued impact of high-speed rail on demand [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley favors Spring Airlines (601021.SH) and China Eastern Airlines (00670)(600115.SH) as the top picks, followed by Cathay Pacific (00293) and Air China (00753)(601111.SH), while China Southern Airlines (01055)(600029.SH) is viewed less favorably [1] - Cathay Pacific's rating has been upgraded to "Neutral," with a target price increase from HKD 8.2 to HKD 9.1 due to an attractive dividend yield exceeding 6% [1] - China Eastern Airlines has seen its A-share rating upgraded to "Buy," with a target price raised from RMB 4.1 to RMB 5, as the company focuses on passenger services after divesting its cargo business [1] - Spring Airlines maintains a "Buy" rating, with a target price increase from RMB 63 to RMB 65, benefiting from the strong recovery in domestic tourism [1]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00753 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | ...

国泰海通发布研报称，维持中国国航(0753.HK)"增持"评级。2025Q2公司在大航率先扭亏，若公商需求 恢复可持续，未来两年盈利中枢上行可期。考虑短期需求波动影响，下调2025-26年归母净利预测至 10/60亿元，新增2027年预测151亿元人民币，对应2025-27年EPS0.06/0.35/0.86元人民币。给予2027年10 倍PE，对应目标价9.45港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific maintains an "overweight" rating for Air China (00753), anticipating a turnaround in profitability by Q2 2025, contingent on the sustainable recovery of public and business demand over the next two years [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Air China reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan, a reduction of nearly 1 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - In Q2, the company achieved profitability of 2 million yuan, benefiting from a year-on-year recovery in public and business demand, alongside significant fuel cost reductions [1] Group 2: Capital Financing - Shenzhen Airlines, in which Air China holds a 51% stake, plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing in two phases, with Air China expected to contribute up to 8.16 billion yuan based on its ownership ratio [1] - The first phase of financing will involve a cash injection of 2.082 billion yuan from Air China and 2 billion yuan from new investors [1] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The analysis indicates that Air China's flight network and passenger sources have significantly improved, suggesting an upward shift in profitability [1] - Prior to 2019, Air China had the highest quality flight network and passenger sources in the industry, maintaining a leading profitability position among major airlines [1] - Following the introduction of a dual-airport system in Beijing, Air China strategically retained its operations at the capital airport, capitalizing on market opportunities [1]

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific maintains "buy" rating for Air China (601111) (00753), expecting the company to turn profitable in Q2 2025, with potential for upward profit momentum in the next two years if commercial demand recovers sustainably [1][2] - The company reported a net loss of 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a reduction of nearly 1 billion yuan year-on-year, with Q2 showing a profit of 238 million yuan due to recovering commercial demand and reduced fuel costs [2] - The company plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing, maintaining its controlling stake in Shenzhen Airlines, which will help alleviate debt burdens and improve profitability [3] Group 2 - Air China's network and customer base have significantly improved, with the company poised for an upward shift in profit margins as commercial demand stabilizes [4] - The airline's strategic decision to retain operations at the capital airport has further optimized its customer base, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [4] - The overall aviation market is entering a low growth phase, and with the recovery of commercial demand, Air China is expected to see a substantial increase in profitability [4]

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific maintains a "buy" rating, expecting a turnaround in profitability by Q2 2025, with potential for upward movement in profit margins if commercial demand recovers sustainably [1] - In the first half of the year, the company reported a net loss of 1.8 billion yuan, a reduction of nearly 1 billion yuan year-on-year, with Q2 showing a profit of 238 million yuan due to recovering commercial demand [1] - The company anticipates significant profitability in Q3 despite a temporary decline in ticket prices, with expectations of continued strong performance in Q4 driven by holiday travel demand [1] Group 2 - Shenzhen Airlines plans to raise 16 billion yuan through equity financing while maintaining its controlling stake, with the first phase involving a cash increase of 2.082 billion yuan [2] - The financing is expected to alleviate debt burdens and lower capital costs, aiding in the recovery of profitability for Shenzhen Airlines [2] - The strategic significance of maintaining control over Shenzhen Airlines is highlighted, as it supports the company's high-quality network [2] Group 3 - The airline's network and customer base have significantly improved, with a potential increase in profitability as commercial demand stabilizes [3] - Cathay Pacific has strategically positioned itself by retaining operations at the capital airport, enhancing its network quality and profitability potential [3] - The market for civil aviation ticket prices has become largely market-driven, indicating a shift towards a low-growth supply environment [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, being the first among major airlines to turn a profit in Q2 2025. The overall demand fluctuations do not alter the long-term growth logic of the aviation industry, and an optimistic upward trend in profitability is anticipated over the next two years [3][11] - The company has maintained a target price of 13.52 CNY for 2027, based on a projected PE ratio of 16 times [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 141.1 billion CNY in 2023 to 204.739 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [5][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to shift from a loss of 1.046 billion CNY in 2023 to a profit of 15.07 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [5][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.06 CNY in 2023 to 0.86 CNY in 2027 [5][12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from -2.8% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2027, showcasing a strong recovery in profitability [5][12] Strategic Developments - The company is set to maintain its controlling stake in Shenzhen Airlines, which is undergoing a capital increase of 16 billion CNY. This move is expected to alleviate debt burdens and enhance profitability [11] - The company’s network and customer quality are continuously improving, positioning it as a leading player in the aviation sector [11] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 135.4 billion CNY, with a current stock price of 7.76 CNY [6][12] - The company’s stock has shown resilience, with a 52-week price range of 6.85 to 8.89 CNY [6]