当前，"新质生产力"已成为驱动中国经济高质量发展的核心引擎。发展新质生产力，核心在于技术突 破、要素创新配置与产业深度转型，关键抓手是壮大战略性新兴产业、布局未来产业。整合科技创新资 源，推动产研融深度融合，已成为业界大势所趋。在这个背景下，8月20日，由兴业证券主办、兴业银 行深圳分行和深圳湾科技发展有限公司合办的"兴智达"产研融对接活动（深圳场）在深圳湾科技生态园 圆满落幕。 "兴智达"产研融对接活动是兴业证券整合集团优势资源构建的生态赋能平台，致力于集聚产业，广泛引 入资本，构建机构客户生态圈，共享生态价值。本次活动涵盖主题分享、路演项目展示环节，主会场汇 聚了80余家投资机构、产业方代表及8家路演企业，异地分会场通过直播互动实现跨区域参与，全面推 动企业与全国各地的投资机构高效对接，深度构建集团企业客户综合服务生态圈。 兴业证券总裁助理傅汉镭、兴业证券深圳分公司总经理张津昊、兴业证券投资银行业务总部总裁助理徐 程鋆、兴业银行科技园支行行长邓志梅、深圳湾科技发展有限公司副总经理邓映萍等有关负责同志出席 活动。 兴业证券总裁助理傅汉镭发表致辞，向莅临现场的投资机构、产业方代表、路演企业表示热烈欢迎，表 示 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" has raised concerns about increased U.S. Treasury supply in the second half of the year due to tax cuts and higher debt ceilings[2] - After the debt ceiling was lifted in June 2023, U.S. Treasury yields entered an upward trend, influenced by supply acceleration, economic resilience, and tight monetary policy[4] - In Q3 2023, U.S. Treasury yields rose contrary to economic weakness, primarily driven by increased bond supply[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Treasury's net financing demand for Q3 2023 was significantly raised to $1.007 trillion, the second-highest since 2021, exceeding the previous estimate of $733 billion[40] - Actual supply exceeded planned issuance, with August 2023 seeing an additional $59.1 billion issued compared to plans, contributing to rising yields[4] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries weakened, with major buyers like the Federal Reserve and foreign investors reducing holdings, leading to a shift towards more price-sensitive buyers[64] Group 3: Yield and Volatility Analysis - The yield curve inversion deepened as short-term debt supply increased and was more sensitive to monetary policy, with the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield spread widening in May 2023 and narrowing in September[4] - The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, remained elevated in the second half of 2023, reflecting uncertainty in monetary policy and economic resilience[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield's term premium rose significantly after the debt ceiling was lifted, indicating increased market concerns about future supply[20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Viewpoints - The market trading activity has significantly increased since the beginning of the year, with strong demand for new accounts. As of August 20, 2024, the average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 1,484.4 billion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the average daily volume in 2024. This trend is expected to help offset the decline in commission rates through increased trading volume [2][4] - The brokerage industry is experiencing a downward trend in net commission rates, with the average net commission rate projected to be around 0.20% in 2024, down from 0.80% in 2011. However, the potential for further significant declines is limited [2][4] - Wealth management transformation is seen as a key strategy for brokers to overcome challenges, focusing on service upgrades, tool innovations, and buyer advisory services to enhance client engagement and business growth [5] Summary by Sections New Account Activity and Commission Rates - The recent surge in market activity has led to a notable increase in new account openings, with brokers offering limited-time discounts on commission rates, some as low as 0.08% for new clients and 0.05% for ETF trades. This reduction in trading costs is aimed at attracting more investors [3][4] Trading Volume and Revenue Structure - Brokerage business is crucial to the industry's revenue structure, accounting for approximately 26% of total operating income in 2024. The average daily trading volume has been consistently high, with recent figures indicating a daily average of 1,484.4 billion yuan, which is expected to support revenue recovery despite declining commission rates [4][5] Wealth Management Transformation - To address the challenges posed by declining commission rates, brokers are pursuing a multi-faceted approach to wealth management transformation. This includes enhancing service offerings, innovating tools, and focusing on client asset appreciation through long-term advisory services [5][6] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights several stocks with strong growth potential, including: - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with a target price of 42.59 yuan and a "Buy" rating [9] - GF Securities with a target price of 21.34 yuan and a "Buy" rating [9] - Orient Securities with a target price of 12.95 yuan and a "Buy" rating [9] - Guotai Junan Securities with a target price of 23.26 yuan and a "Buy" rating [9] - CITIC Securities with a target price of 33.31 yuan and a "Buy" rating [9] - Guoyuan Securities with a target price of 9.78 yuan and an "Overweight" rating [9] - Industrial Securities with a target price of 6.98 yuan and an "Overweight" rating [9]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), highlighting strong downstream demand for aluminum, particularly in new energy and ultra-high voltage applications, despite a slight decline in alumina prices [1][2] Group 1: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing capacity limits, while demand remains robust, driven by solar energy installations and aluminum exports, leading to a resilient demand for electrolytic aluminum [1] - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 was 17,853 RMB per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 146 RMB and a year-on-year increase of 474 RMB [1] - Electrolytic aluminum sales volume increased by 2.4% year-on-year to 2.91 million tons, while aluminum products and aluminum alloy processing products sales rose by 2.5% year-on-year to 3.3 million tons [1] Group 2: Alumina Market Insights - Alumina prices have declined from the high levels seen in H2 2024, with the external sales price per ton in H1 2025 decreasing by 664 RMB to 3,243 RMB, but still showing a year-on-year increase of 301 RMB [2] - External sales volume of alumina increased by 860,000 tons year-on-year to 6.37 million tons, with gross profit per ton rising by 185 RMB to 933 RMB [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Capital Expenditure - China Hongqiao's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 12.4 billion RMB, an increase of 3.2 billion RMB year-on-year, but a decrease of 900 million RMB quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company maintained high capital expenditures of 9.89 billion RMB in H1 2025, focusing on capacity relocation in Yunnan, solar projects in Yunnan, and lightweight projects in Shandong [2] - The company has increased interest-bearing liabilities to 75.5 billion RMB, up 4.7 billion RMB quarter-on-quarter, while managing to reduce financing costs [2] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - China Hongqiao has canceled its interim dividend but is expected to maintain a full-year dividend payout ratio of 63% for 2025, similar to 2024 [2] - The company has announced a share buyback plan of no less than 3 billion HKD, having already repurchased approximately 2.6 billion HKD worth of shares, representing 2% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Hongqiao (01378) is rated as a "buy" by Industrial Securities, with strong demand for aluminum driven by sectors like new energy and ultra-high voltage applications, despite a slight decline in alumina prices [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is nearing capacity limits, while downstream demand remains robust, particularly in the photovoltaic and aluminum export sectors, supporting resilient demand for electrolytic aluminum [1] - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 was 17,853 RMB per ton, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 146 RMB and a year-on-year increase of 474 RMB, with sales volume up 2.4% year-on-year to 2.91 million tons [1] Group 2 - In terms of alumina, prices have declined but profitability has improved, with external sales prices for alumina in H1 2025 decreasing by 664 RMB to 3,243 RMB per ton, while sales volume increased by 860,000 tons year-on-year to 6.37 million tons [2] - The company has maintained strict cost control, with total expenses in H1 2025 amounting to 3.96 billion RMB, a decrease of 420 million RMB year-on-year, while interest-bearing debt increased by 4.7 billion RMB to 75.5 billion RMB [2] - China Hongqiao has announced a share buyback plan of no less than 3 billion HKD, having already repurchased approximately 2.6 billion HKD worth of shares, representing 2% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in investor enthusiasm, with new account openings rising nearly 400% in July compared to June [2][3] - There is a notable increase in both new and existing investors engaging with various services, including margin trading and derivatives [3][4] - Younger investors, including those from the "post-2000" generation, are increasingly participating in the market, contrary to previous assumptions about their disinterest in stock trading [3] Group 2 - Many investors are turning to ETFs as a preferred investment vehicle due to the challenges of selecting individual stocks, with a growing interest in sector-specific ETFs [6] - Despite the increase in inquiries and account openings, the current market enthusiasm is still significantly lower than the peak observed during the "9.24" market rally last year [7][8] - The current market environment is characterized by a structural divergence in stock performance, leading to a more cautious approach among investors compared to the previous year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for fund custody licenses has significantly decreased, with only three institutions currently applying for such qualifications, indicating a shift from a broad accessibility to a focus on leading players in the securities industry [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Current Applications and Trends - As of now, only three institutions are in line to apply for fund custody qualifications: Mongolian Merchants Bank, Guangzhou Bank, and Dongwu Securities, with the latter being the only remaining brokerage firm [2]. - Previously, there were seven brokerages, including Western Securities, Caixin Securities, and others, that had applied for fund custody qualifications, but six have withdrawn their applications within a year [2][3]. Regulatory Changes - The decline in applications is attributed to new regulatory measures that have raised the entry barriers for fund custody licenses, making it difficult for smaller brokerages to meet the requirements [3][4]. - The new regulations, set to be implemented in 2025, include stricter compliance and risk management standards, requiring applicants to have a regulatory rating of at least level 2 or A class and a minimum net asset requirement of 50 billion RMB for banks and 30 billion RMB for securities firms [4]. Market Dynamics - The fund custody business is undergoing a transformation from a focus on scale to a focus on quality, with resources increasingly concentrating among leading firms [3][5]. - The number of qualified institutions has been reported at 66, with a significant portion being larger brokerages, indicating a trend where smaller firms may struggle to compete [6]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see increased concentration, with stronger firms gaining market share due to higher entry barriers and a more rigorous exit mechanism [7]. - The business model for fund custody is anticipated to evolve from basic services to high-value comprehensive services, emphasizing technology and risk management capabilities [7]. - A differentiated market structure is likely to emerge, where leading brokerages may establish specialized subsidiaries for refined operations, while smaller firms may pivot to providing outsourced services [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend, with increased investor enthusiasm leading to a surge in new account openings and business activity at brokerage firms [3][5][12] - New account openings have increased by nearly 400% in July compared to June, indicating a significant rise in market participation [2][5] Investor Behavior - Both new and existing investors are becoming more active, with many older investors returning to adjust their commission rates and increase their investment amounts [7][8] - Younger investors, including those from the "00s" generation, are also entering the market, challenging previous assumptions about their interest in stock trading [5] ETF Popularity - ETFs are gaining popularity among both new and seasoned investors, as many find it easier to invest in sector-specific ETFs rather than selecting individual stocks [10][11] - The convenience and diversification offered by ETFs are appealing to investors looking to capitalize on market trends [11] Market Sentiment - Despite the increase in inquiries and account openings, the current market enthusiasm is still significantly lower than during the "9•24" market rally last year, with many investors remaining cautious [12][13][15] - The current market is characterized by structural differentiation, making it more challenging for investors to achieve profits compared to the previous broad market rally [16] Brokerage Insights - Brokerage staff report a noticeable increase in consultation and account opening activity, but the overall volume remains below the levels seen during the "9•24" period [15][16] - There is a growing trend of retail investors transferring funds from banks to the stock market, although the majority of capital still comes from existing funds [15]

Group 1 - The current market heat is significantly lower than the "9 24" market conditions from last year, despite a recent increase in investor activity and new account openings [1][6][7] - New account openings in July increased by nearly 400% compared to June, with a notable rise in younger investors participating in the market [2][4] - There is a growing interest in ETFs among both new and existing investors, as many find it challenging to select individual stocks [5][6] Group 2 - While there is an increase in inquiries and account openings, the current levels are still far below the peak seen during the "9 24" period, indicating a more cautious investor sentiment [6][7] - Many investors are increasing their margin trading activities, but the overall proportion remains low compared to previous market conditions [7] - The market is experiencing a structural divergence, with some investors still holding back due to uncertainty, despite some signs of capital moving from banks to the stock market [6][7]

Market Overview - On August 19, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with all three major indices experiencing a pullback, while the trading volume exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, marking five consecutive days above 2 trillion yuan [1] - The leading Securities ETF (560090) experienced a decline of 1.84% after two days of gains, but attracted over 660 million yuan in inflows yesterday [1] Sector Performance - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Securities ETF (560090) saw declines, with Dongfang Caifu dropping over 3%, CITIC Securities down over 2%, and other major firms like Guotai Junan and China Merchants Securities also experiencing declines of over 1% [2][3] Key Stocks and Their Performance - The top ten constituent stocks of the Securities ETF (560090) showed the following performance: - Dongfang Caifu: -3.41%, trading volume of 24.657 billion yuan - CITIC Securities: -2.15%, trading volume of 6.158 billion yuan - Guotai Junan: -1.50%, trading volume of 2.675 billion yuan - Huatai Securities: -0.93%, trading volume of 2.204 billion yuan - China Merchants Securities: -1.33%, trading volume of 785 million yuan [4] Financial Trends - There is a noticeable trend of "deposit migration," with a significant shift of residents' deposits towards non-bank financial institutions. In July, residents' deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in deposits [5] - The M2-M1 spread narrowed by 0.5 percentage points to 3.2% in July, indicating a shift in investment preferences towards financial markets due to low deposit rates [5] Market Outlook - Analysts from Zhonghang Securities suggest that residents' allocation to A-shares has just moved away from the bottom range, indicating substantial potential for further investment. The ratio of A-share total market value to residents' savings has been rising for two consecutive months, suggesting increased liquidity contribution from savings to the A-share market [7] - Huatai Securities highlights that the brokerage sector is expected to experience a "Davis double hit" in terms of valuation and performance, with a steady increase in trading volume and financing balance, indicating a robust recovery in the sector [9]