Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that recent liquidity shocks in overseas markets, driven by concerns over the AI software bubble and subsequent momentum selling, have led to significant volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It suggests that some assets may have been "wrongly killed" due to these liquidity shocks, as the macroeconomic fundamentals and broad liquidity environment have not changed significantly [1][13] - The report anticipates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment and CPI data for January may present upward risks, potentially reversing the slight increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts observed this week [1][13] Financial Products - The report highlights that overseas market liquidity shows signs of stabilization, which may improve market sentiment. It predicts a positive outlook for the A-share market in February, with a historical probability of 78.57% for an increase following a macro timing model score of 0 [1][16] - Fund allocation recommendations suggest a balanced ETF configuration due to expected short-term market fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and electric grid equipment, which continue to see increasing fund sizes [1][16] Commodity Market - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity prices, noting that certain commodities, which rely on supply-demand improvements, have been "wrongly hurt" but may return to fundamental pricing logic as market conditions stabilize [2][17] - It emphasizes that the recent volatility in silver and other precious metals indicates a potential end to the liquidity shock, with silver becoming a key indicator of market sentiment [2][17] Environmental Industry - The report stresses the importance of advancing the national carbon market and outlines investment recommendations in clean energy, energy conservation, and recycling sectors. It highlights specific companies such as Longjing Environmental and others involved in renewable energy and waste management [6][10] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes a recovery in the IPO and refinancing market, with significant year-on-year growth in both areas. It indicates that the capital market reforms and increased market activity are expected to benefit brokerage firms' investment banking revenues [9] AI Industry and Bond Financing - The report focuses on the AI industry, highlighting the need for a diversified financing system to support technology companies, particularly private firms with high growth potential. It reviews case studies of leading tech companies' bond financing paths to assess the feasibility of similar strategies in China [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The new leadership team has injected fresh vitality into the company, focusing on wealth management and institutional business as dual drivers for growth [7][25] - The company has a strong governance structure that has enabled it to rise from a lower ranking to a top position in the industry over the past 25 years [12][23] - The company is positioned to benefit from regional policy dividends and industrial upgrades due to its provincial background and control over significant local resources [23][25] - The company's operational indicators are entering a recovery growth phase, with significant increases in revenue and net profit expected in the coming years [25][27] Summary by Sections 1. New Leadership and Organizational Restructuring - The new chairman has initiated organizational restructuring across three main lines: wealth management, research and institutional services, and risk management [12][15] - The company has a stable governance structure that enhances strategic execution and decision-making [12][23] 2. Wealth Management and Institutional Business - The company is actively transforming its wealth management strategy, launching a new brand "Zhi Ji Li Cai" and three service solutions to enhance customer engagement [31][32] - The company has seen a significant increase in its investment advisory business, with a 526% growth in total assets under management as of October 2025 [32][34] 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, estimating net profits of 2.945 billion, 3.787 billion, and 4.161 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36%, 29%, and 10% [1][25] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to recover steadily, with a reported ROE of 4.37% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [27][25] 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a dominant position in the regional capital market, serving over 70% of provincial state-owned enterprises and local governments [23][25] - The company has a diversified asset management strategy, controlling significant stakes in various funds, which has greatly enhanced its profit contribution [40][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in operational metrics after a downturn in 2022 and 2023, with significant growth in revenue and net profit expected in 2024 and 2025 [25] - The new leadership team has initiated organizational restructuring aimed at enhancing wealth management and institutional services, which is expected to drive future growth [12][15] - The company benefits from its provincial background, holding a dominant position in the regional capital market, which provides it with unique resource advantages [23] Summary by Sections 1. New Leadership and Organizational Restructuring - The company has a stable governance structure that has contributed to its rise in the industry rankings over the past 25 years [12] - A new chairman has been appointed, and an organizational restructuring has been initiated focusing on wealth management, research, institutional services, and risk management [12][15] - The company is positioned as a key player in the regional market due to its provincial ownership, serving over 70% of provincial state-owned enterprises [23] 2. Wealth Management and Institutional Business - The company is focusing on dual drivers of wealth management and institutional business, with a significant recovery in operational metrics [25] - A new wealth management brand "Zhi Ji Li Cai" has been launched, along with three service solutions aimed at enhancing customer engagement [31] - The company has seen a substantial increase in its investment advisory business, with a 526% growth in total assets under management as of October 2025 [32] 3. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29 billion, 38 billion, and 42 billion yuan for net profit in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to recover, with a reported ROE of 4.37% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [27] - The valuation of the company remains below the industry average, indicating potential for upside [25]

Core Viewpoint - As the Spring Festival approaches, the choice between "holding stocks or holding cash" has become a focal point for investors, with a consensus emerging among major brokerages favoring "holding stocks" as the better option this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Major brokerages, including Guotai Junan and GF Securities, express optimism about the market's potential for recovery post-holiday, suggesting that the A-share market may experience a favorable "timing, location, and human factors" for an upward trend [2][17]. - Despite a general consensus on holding stocks, several brokerages caution that market performance may still be influenced by multiple risks, including slower-than-expected economic recovery and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Guotai Junan recommends focusing on emerging technology and value sectors, highlighting themes such as commercial aerospace, robotics, urban renewal, and domestic consumption [4]. - Dongwu Securities suggests three main investment directions: overvalued technology sectors, booming industries like energy storage and lithium batteries, and themes related to the 14th Five-Year Plan, including commercial aerospace and 6G technology [5]. - Galaxy Securities advocates for a cautious approach with "light positions," emphasizing the importance of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and the shift towards "new productive forces" in sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [6][7]. - Huaxia Securities emphasizes the importance of preparing for the post-holiday "red envelope" market, noting that technology sectors typically show better elasticity after the holiday [13]. - The investment focus should also include sectors that have underperformed but are expected to recover, such as food and beverage, agriculture, and healthcare [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Historical Trends - Historical data indicates that the market tends to perform better after the Spring Festival, with a common pattern of "lower before the holiday and higher after" across various style indices [11]. - The current market environment is characterized by a high trading volume, with brokerages maintaining a cautious yet optimistic stance, suggesting that the market is not likely to turn bearish easily [8][9]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for potential market recovery, with many brokerages encouraging investors to remain confident and prepared for the first wave of the new year's upward cycle [17].

兴证资管金麒麟现金添利货币市场基金（以下简称"本基金"）的快速取现业务相关事项公告如下： 一、业务办理条件 投资者自愿申请使用本基金的"快速取现"服务，使用时需通过网上交易系统或其他有效途径与快速取现 服务提供方兴业证券股份有限公司（以下简称"兴业证券"）、管理人签订《兴证资管金麒麟现金添利货 币市场基金快速取现业务协议》，且本基金的状态设置为"开通"。 二、业务办理时间 根据《兴证资管金麒麟现金添利货币市场基金快速取现业务协议》约定，投资者申请参与快速取现业 务，可提交"快速取现"申请的时间为每个交易日的9:25-11:30和13:00-15:00。兴业证券及管理人有权根 据业务发展需求适时调整该业务办理时间，并通过管理人网站等方式予以公告。 三、总额度、申请金额、次数、主存管银行等限制 1、快速取现通过份额转让方式实现，份额转让完成后，已转让份额在快速取款日（不含）之前的收益 由投资者享有。 2、投资者申请快速取现的资金当日可用可取，需在当日16:00之前使用或转出，如果未及时使用或转出 至银行卡，并且未调整留存金额或未暂停自动转入，该部分资金可能将会再次自动重新参与本基金。 自2026年2月10日起，快 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 拥挤度是兴证策略团队独家构建的反映热门赛道交易情绪的重要指标，由量能、价格、资金、分析师预 测四大维度、七大指标合成而来，量化跟踪市场情绪变化，对于股价短期走势有较强指示意义。 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2026/2/2-2026/2/6 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：时间范围为2025/12/31-2026/2/6 经历前期调整、防御性思维主导后，主要板块拥挤度已出现新老易位、高低易位：部分红利、消费板块 拥挤度升至高位，而多数热门赛道和主题拥挤度已回落至中等甚至偏低水平。 一、TMT 1、光模块：拥挤度中等偏低 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2、服务器：拥挤度水平中等偏低 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3、基站：拥挤度水平中等偏低 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 4、光纤光缆：拥挤度水平较高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 5、IDC：拥挤度水平中等偏高 资料来源：Wind，兴业证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a significant upward trend after the Spring Festival, with a 70% probability of rising in the first five trading days post-holiday, and a projected increase of 4.85% in 2024 [1][2]. Market Trends - Historical data shows that the market typically rebounds in the five trading days leading up to the Spring Festival, with a notable upward trend continuing until around T+6 days post-holiday [2]. - The trading volume is characterized by a "decrease before the holiday and an increase after" [1]. Institutional Recommendations - Major brokerage firms recommend "holding stocks over the holiday," anticipating a resurgence in market activity post-Spring Festival [1][3][4]. - Economic and profit expectations are likely to improve during the holiday, with positive consumer data anticipated [5]. Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Liquidity is expected to remain loose during the Spring Festival, with potential for accelerated capital inflow post-holiday [5]. - Market sentiment is projected to be neutral, with limited external risks impacting domestic markets [5]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology growth and cyclical industries, which are expected to outperform due to policy support and ongoing industry trends [5][6]. - Specific attention is recommended for AI computing, chemicals, and power equipment sectors [6]. Style Rotation - There is a notable style rotation expected, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks before the holiday, while small-cap stocks are anticipated to lead post-holiday [7]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more defensive strategy, gradually moving towards growth sectors [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The article highlights the increasing urgency for strategic security investments and the balancing act between short-term shareholder interests and long-term infrastructure investments in the US and Europe [2] - It suggests that China's capital market has already completed the transition from virtual to real pricing and is currently in the process of validating and pricing for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the A-share market in the next 1-2 months is optimistic, with historical data indicating a strong seasonal effect around February and the Spring Festival [3] - The article notes that the number of companies with low expectations or losses has reached a new high, suggesting that negative earnings reports are being digested, which may lead to a lighter market environment starting in February [3] - It encourages investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the upcoming bullish cycle around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The article advocates for holding stocks during the holiday season, citing a positive outlook for the Chinese market driven by a shift towards domestic demand and government support for capital market stability [4] - It mentions a resurgence in stock buybacks among A-share companies, indicating a strengthening market sentiment [4] - The recommendation includes maintaining positions in sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and emerging technologies like internet and robotics [5] Group 4 - The article discusses the limited impact of external shocks on the Chinese market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are more about emotional digestion rather than fundamental changes [6] - It highlights the potential for a recovery in the market post-Spring Festival, driven by increased risk appetite and upcoming catalysts in various sectors [6] - The focus is on sectors like AI computing, chemicals, and power equipment, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market environment [10] Group 5 - The article indicates that the Hang Seng Technology Index has potential for recovery, especially if the liquidity shock subsides and new catalysts emerge in the AI sector [7] - It suggests that the market may experience a rotation towards sectors benefiting from major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as construction materials and energy [7] - The overall sentiment is that the market will likely see a stronger performance post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels [7] Group 6 - The article emphasizes the revaluation of Chinese assets, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and the return of capital from export enterprises [8] - It suggests that the focus should be on physical assets and sectors with global competitive advantages, such as energy and equipment manufacturing [8] - The recommendation includes sectors like oil, copper, and lithium, which are expected to benefit from a stabilization in demand and low inventory levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of brokerages believe that despite recent volatility in the A-share market, market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and the adjustment phase may be nearing its end. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to bring positive calendar effects, making it a good opportunity to hold stocks during the holiday [1][10][12]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Brokerages suggest that the current external disturbances have not significantly impacted China's industrial fundamentals, and the market's emotional release indicates that the adjustment is largely complete. A spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival, making it advisable to hold stocks during the holiday [1][10][13]. - The sentiment in the market is expected to improve due to the "Spring Festival effect" and increasing event catalysts, which could create a favorable environment for equity assets [14][13]. - Historical data shows that A-shares tend to rise around the Spring Festival, and with manageable external risks, the current market remains in a bullish atmosphere, suggesting that holding stocks during the holiday may be a relatively better strategy [12][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a base in "resources + traditional manufacturing," while also increasing allocations in consumer and real estate chains. There is a recommendation to look for opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in AI-related industries [2][4][18]. - The focus on high-growth technology sectors, such as AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors, is emphasized as a key investment direction, alongside cyclical commodities that are expected to see price increases [18][5]. - The market is expected to experience a rotation, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) likely to perform better post-holiday, as historical trends indicate a recovery in risk appetite after the Spring Festival [17][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings, with 4.9158 million new accounts in January 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 213% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 89% [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift of funds from traditional banks to capital markets and non-bank financial institutions, driven by the expiration of 70 trillion yuan in one-year or longer deposits and a decline in net interest margins [4]. - The report discusses the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerages [4]. - The report notes that the international business landscape for brokerages is expanding due to the deepening process of RMB internationalization and the demand for cross-border wealth management and investment banking services [4]. - The report mentions that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting a strong confidence in the insurance sector [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,643.60 with a decline of 1.33%, while the non-bank index closed at 2,030.92 with a decline of 0.60% [8]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [8]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [10]. - Ping An Group's recent acquisitions of shares in China Life (H) are detailed, showcasing a strategic investment approach [12]. - Huatai Securities plans to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with strong comprehensive capabilities, recommending stocks such as Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [4]. - For insurance, the report recommends China Life (H), New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighting the systemic value reassessment opportunities in the insurance sector [4].