Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a positive trend as it approaches the end of 2025, with significant movements in various sectors and a focus on potential investment opportunities for 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days of gains" [1]. - The total scale of Chinese ETFs has surpassed 6 trillion, setting a new historical high [1]. - Major brokerages have provided insights on market trends, with predictions for 2026 focusing on sectors that may dominate [2][5][13]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Citic Securities highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and commercial aerospace as key sectors [3]. - Industry sectors such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy are expected to see increased attention and potential growth due to their long-term return on equity (ROE) improvement [4]. - Guotai Junan emphasizes the importance of capital markets in driving social confidence and investment, marking a shift from traditional investment methods to more capital-intensive approaches [5]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is attributed to a weaker US dollar and seasonal capital inflows, which may support the Chinese stock market [9][30]. - The potential for a significant influx of capital back into China is anticipated, driven by the reversal of previous trends in currency valuation and investment sentiment [9][10]. - The structural transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to reduce uncertainty and enhance investment opportunities, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors [7][24]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors that benefit from the current economic environment, including AI hardware, renewable energy, and consumer services [19][31]. - Brokers suggest focusing on thematic trading opportunities in sectors like robotics, commercial aerospace, and healthcare, which are expected to gain traction in the upcoming year [19][31]. - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, emphasizing low-cost entry points and avoiding high-risk positions as the market stabilizes [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

Electronic and 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好 相关研究 《保险公司资产负债管理即将迈入全新阶 -非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/15- EG --- 2025/12/19)》 2025/12/21 《头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 -- 非 银金融行业周报 (2025/12/8- 2025/12/12)》 2025/12/14 《券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望逐步 兑现 -- 非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/1- 2025/12/5)》 2025/12/07 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 ——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略:权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容,国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh ...

证券ETF龙头（560090）标的指数成分股多数上涨，中银证券涨超5%，兴业证券涨超3%，光大证券、东方财富、东方证券等涨超1%，中信证券、国泰海通 等微涨。 | 【证券ETF龙头（560090）标的指数前十大成分股】 | | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300059 | 东方财富 | 非银金融 | 1.20% | 14.23% | | 2 | 600030 | 中信证券 | 非银金融 | 0.21% | 13.68% | | 3 | 601211 | 週夜漫画 | 非银金融 | -0.19% | 11.06% | | 4 | 601688 | 华泰证券 | 非银金融 | 0.38% | 6.50% | | 5 | 600999 | 招商证券 | 非银金融 | 0.06% | 3.07% | | 6 | 000776 | 广发证券 | 非银金融 | 0.68% | 3.02% | | 7 | 600958 | 东方证券 | 非银金融 | 1.11% | 2.64 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights the negative correlation between stock prices and the USD/CNY exchange rate since 2016, indicating that a stronger RMB tends to drive stock prices higher across various sectors [1] Group 1: Industries Benefiting from RMB Appreciation - Industries with high reliance on imported raw materials benefit from RMB appreciation, leading to reduced import costs. Key sectors include coke, steel, certain chemicals (plastics, chemical raw materials, agricultural chemicals, rubber), energy metals, paper, airport operations, and agricultural product processing [1] - The construction and real estate sectors, which have high USD-denominated debt, see a decrease in financing costs due to RMB appreciation. This includes real estate development, real estate services, and specialized engineering [1] - The service and high-end consumption sectors, such as cross-border e-commerce, hotel and catering services, and jewelry, benefit from increased domestic demand and cross-border consumption driven by enhanced RMB purchasing power [1] Group 2: Correlation Data - The median negative correlation between stock prices and the USD/CNY exchange rate since 2016 shows significant figures for various sectors: - Coke: -70.4% overall, -42.0% rolling three months - Steel: -59.7% overall, -46.9% rolling three months - Basic chemicals: -58.5% overall, -23.6% rolling three months - Transportation (airports): -50.7% overall, -24.4% rolling three months - Real estate development: -63.1% overall, -37.5% rolling three months [2] Group 3: Impact on Financing Costs - Industries with high USD debt benefit from RMB appreciation, leading to lower financing costs. This includes logistics, optical electronics, trade, and diversified finance sectors [1] - Specific correlations include: - Logistics: -59.6% overall, -40.0% rolling three months - Optical electronics: -58.3% overall, -25.7% rolling three months - Trade: -41.6% overall, -27.3% rolling three months [2] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Cross-Border Consumption - The sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand and cross-border consumption include: - Food and beverage (dairy products): -30.2% overall, -53.0% rolling three months - Hospitality (hotels and restaurants): -48.6% overall, -22.9% rolling three months - Textiles (jewelry): -45.2% overall, -25.7% rolling three months [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601696 | 中银证券 | 14.85 | -1.00% | 98.66万 | 14.78亿 | | 601211 | 圆炭海道 | 20.74 | -0.58% | 58.31万 | 12.13亿 | | 000776 | 广发证券 | 22.00 | -0.45% | 34.97万 | 7.72亿 | | 601377 | 兴业证券 | 7.42 | -0.27% | 166.79万 | 12.43亿 | | 002736 | 国信证券 | 13.17 | -0.15% | 27.83万 | 3.68亿 | | 601456 | 国联民生 | 10.37 | -0.10% | 23.63万 | 2.45亿 | | 000750 | 国海证券 | 4.25 | 0.00% | 34.58万 | 1.47 亿 | | 601555 | 东吴证券 | 9.07 | 0.00% | 39.98万 | 3.63亿 | | 002670 | 国盛证券 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：兴业证券发布 近期，在由中国人民银行、中国证监会等监管机构主导的"2024年度金融科技发展奖"评选中，兴业证券 及子公司兴证全球基金，凭借自主研发的前沿成果，从全国681项顶尖成果中脱颖而出，双双荣获三等 奖。 兴业证券此次获奖的"基于指标体系的数智化运维治理平台"项目，是公司前瞻性打造的新一代智能运维 体系的核心。该体系以"巡天平台"为基，取意"巡天遥看一千河"，旨在以全局视野驾驭复杂系统。 平台以指标体系为抓手，集监控、自动化、管理与分析于一体，推动运维从"被动保障"迈向"主动赋 能"，深度助力业务与技术融合提质增效。同时，公司积极参与行业共建，作为主要起草单位参与了智 能运维国家标准的制定，牵头多项金融科技监管课题、证标委行业标准及团体标准研究，将自身优秀实 践转化为行业共享的方案与标准。 兴证全球基金 深度融合场景，以技术重塑业务价值 兴证全球基金自主研发的"千询固收智能交易平台"，实现了固收交易从人工到智能全流程的突破，平台 通过AI智能解析等技术，每日为每位交易员节省约3小时，询价效率提升超50%，成功将前沿科技与核 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant inflow of capital into the CSI A500 ETF has been observed since December, with a total net inflow of 74.5 billion yuan and an average daily net inflow of nearly 5 billion yuan as of December 23 [1][2]. Group 1: Inflow Dynamics - The net inflow into the A500 ETF has accelerated notably since mid-December, coinciding with the recovery of the capital market [5]. - The inflow is characterized by a concentration in the top six A500 ETF products, which have absorbed nearly all of the net inflow since December, while smaller products have experienced slight outflows [6]. Group 2: ETF Performance and Characteristics - The A500 ETF has historically shown a "calendar effect" of increased inflows near quarter-end, making it a key window for significant net inflows [9]. - The CSI A500 index is favored by investors for its balanced industry allocation and selection of leading companies, making it an ideal tool for year-end positioning [10]. Group 3: Sector and Stock Allocation - Compared to the CSI 300, the CSI A500 has a higher allocation in sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, military, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [10]. - Key companies with higher relative weights in the CSI A500 compared to the CSI 300 include Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision, Jianghuai Automobile, Huagong Technology, and others [14][15].

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601696 中银证券 | | 1.32 亿 | 6.73% | -2104.43万 | -1.07% | -1.11 Z | -5.66% | | 000776 广发证券 | | 8658.78万 | 9.27% | -6750.70万 | -7.23% | -1908.08万 | -2.04% | | 002670 国盛证券 | | 8427.51万 | 14.44% | -3490.00万 | -5.98% | -4937.51万 | -8.46% | | 601555 东吴证券 | | 6172.66万 | 10.64% | -6705.55万 | -11.56% | 532.88万 | 0.92% | | 601377 | 兴业证券 | 5324.91万 | 3.88% | -2264.45万 | -1.65% | -3060.46万 | -2.23% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The dry bulk shipping sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle due to various favorable demand factors and limited supply growth, with a gradual increase in freight rates anticipated as demand for shipping volume and distance rises [1] Demand Analysis - The demand for dry bulk shipping is supported by coal, grain, and other commodities, with significant contributions from Guinea's Simandou iron ore shipments and alumina exports, as well as post-war reconstruction efforts in Ukraine and Israel [1] - The Federal Reserve's new interest rate cut cycle is likely to boost global economic recovery and dry bulk demand, with China maintaining a dominant position in iron ore imports, projected to reach 1.238 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 77.5% of global imports [2] - The iron ore supply landscape is shifting, with Guinea's Simandou project expected to ramp up production to 120 million tons per year by 2026-2032, potentially increasing shipping distances due to longer routes compared to traditional suppliers [2] Coal Market - China is the largest coal importer globally, with imports projected at 421 million tons in 2024, representing 30.6% of global imports; however, demand faces pressure due to structural adjustments in supply and competition from domestic coal [3] - Indonesia and Australia dominate coal exports, with Indonesia's CAGR from 2000 to 2024 expected to reach 9.93%, indicating a significant structural shift in the market [3] Grain Market - Global grain shipping volume is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.84% from 2000 to 2024, with soybeans showing a higher CAGR of 5.67%, reflecting changing dietary preferences and increased protein consumption [4] - China's grain imports are stabilizing, while demand from other developing countries continues to rise, leading to a more dispersed geographical demand structure [4] Minor Bulk Cargo Market - The minor bulk cargo sector, which includes various industries such as agriculture and construction, is expected to grow alongside the global economy, with alumina imports in China showing a remarkable CAGR of 29.65% from 2004 to 2024 [5][6] Supply Analysis - The dry bulk fleet capacity has grown from 267 million deadweight tons to 1.064 billion deadweight tons since 2000, with an average fleet age of 12.84 years projected by the end of 2025, indicating a trend towards fleet aging [7] - High ship prices and long order backlogs are expected to limit future supply growth, with the current order book for dry bulk vessels at only 11.04% of the fleet, significantly below the 20-year average [7] Valuation - The dry bulk shipping market is characterized by high volatility and asset intensity, with companies' performance during upturns reflected in their price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, while their resilience during downturns is indicated by price-to-book (PB) ratios [8] - Current valuations show that U.S. shipping companies have higher PE ratios compared to their A-share and Hong Kong counterparts, while A-share companies exhibit higher PB ratios, suggesting potential for valuation recovery in U.S. and Hong Kong shipping stocks as the market enters a recovery phase [8]