■ "夯实文化软实力 积极履责显担当"系列专题报道 兴业证券党委书记、董事长苏军良： 全链发力 绘就服务新质生产力新蓝图 发展新质生产力，是推动高质量发展的内在要求，也是构筑未来竞争新优势的关键支撑。兴业证券党委 书记、董事长苏军良日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，党的二十届四中全会系统擘画"十五五"发 展蓝图，全会公报将"加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力"作为关键任务，为金融服务实体 经济提供了根本遵循。遵循这一战略方向，证监会主席吴清近期撰文系统阐释了"十五五"时期资本市场 六大重点任务，明确提出要"积极发展股权、债券等直接融资"，以持续增强资本市场服务新质生产力的 能力。 苏军良表示，兴业证券紧扣国家战略脉搏，把服务新质生产力作为践行金融政治性、人民性的核心使 命，统筹推进投行、投资、投研三大业务链条协同发力，推动科技、资本与产业良性循环，为培育新动 能、塑造新优势贡献兴证力量。 ● 本报记者 张朝晖 徐昭 赵中昊 强化跨条线协同 赋能科创企业全周期成长 以"投行+投资+投研"三大能力为引擎，兴业证券正通过深度的内部协同与全链条服务，构建支持新质 生产力发展的金融生态。 "面对经济结构调整与 ...

Core Insights - The report from the Zhang Qiyao team at Industrial Securities indicates that the previous adjustments in the TMT sector have been substantial, with signs of recovery in the AI market as it begins to expand towards downstream applications in both China and the US [1][11]. Group 1: TMT Sector Analysis - The rolling excess return of the TMT sector relative to the entire A-share market has significantly narrowed, reaching a level of approximately -7.5%, which is consistent with historical bottoms [2]. - The trading congestion in the TMT sector has been adequately released, with the trading volume percentage dropping to around 28%, aligning with levels seen during previous adjustments [4]. - The current congestion levels in various AI sub-sectors have notably decreased, with most sectors now at historical lows, indicating a more favorable trading environment [5]. Group 2: Historical Context - The current TMT adjustment has been sufficient in both time and magnitude, with the maximum drawdown recorded at -13.7% over 35 trading days, which is comparable to previous adjustments that typically lasted 30-45 days with drawdowns around 15% [8][10]. Group 3: AI Market Dynamics - Since November, the AI market has begun to shift towards downstream software applications, driven by a change in industry narratives and advancements in global AI applications [11][14]. - Recent developments, such as Alibaba's confidence in domestic AI commercialization and Google's advancements in multi-modal capabilities, have catalyzed the penetration of AI into various sectors including content production, marketing, and e-commerce [14][16]. - The overall market sentiment towards the end of the year is expected to favor the AI downstream sector, providing a conducive trading environment [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [52] Core Insights - The brokerage sector index experienced a range-bound fluctuation in October 2025, with a decline of 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [4][7] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.510 and 1.580 times, closing at 1.510 times at the end of October [11] - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages is expected to decline in November 2025, with a forecasted drop to mid-low levels for the year [47][48] Summary by Sections 1. October 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index maintained a range-bound fluctuation with a significant reduction in volatility, closing down 0.73% for the month [4][7] - A total of 42 listed brokerages saw 17 increase in stock prices, with notable gains from Dongxing Securities (10.08%) and Changjiang Securities (6.27%) [8] - The average P/B ratio for the sector was 1.510 times, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [11] 2. Key Market Factors Affecting October 2025 Performance - Increased volatility in equity markets and a rebound in fixed income markets led to a decline in proprietary trading performance [6] - The average daily trading volume in October was 21,640 billion, down 10.5% month-on-month [25] - The margin financing balance reached a historical high of 24,864 billion, reflecting a stable outlook among investors [32] 3. November 2025 Performance Outlook - Proprietary trading is expected to face pressure due to a comprehensive market correction, with a forecasted decline in monthly investment returns [40][43] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see a slight recovery in brokerage business due to an increase in trading days, despite a decrease in average daily trading volume [44] - The investment banking sector is expected to remain stable, with equity financing slightly declining and debt financing rebounding [46] 4. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector index has shown signs of further downward adjustment, with a significant gap from the average valuation since 2016 [48] - It is recommended to focus on leading brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [50]

Market Overview - On November 24, the securities sector rose by 0.22% compared to the previous trading day, with Guolian Minsheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Top Gainers - Guolian Minsheng (601456) closed at 10.40, up 2.87% with a trading volume of 297,600 shares and a turnover of 304 million yuan [1] - Guosheng Securities (002670) closed at 17.86, up 2.76% with a trading volume of 444,300 shares and a turnover of 788 million yuan [1] - Industrial Securities (601377) closed at 6.69, up 2.14% with a trading volume of 941,000 shares and a turnover of 625 million yuan [1] Top Losers - Shouchao Securities (601136) closed at 20.20, down 2.27% with a trading volume of 375,700 shares and a turnover of 757 million yuan [2] - Changjiang Securities (000783) closed at 7.92, down 1.12% with a trading volume of 849,100 shares and a turnover of 679 million yuan [2] - Sihai Securities (600369) closed at 4.40, down 0.90% with a trading volume of 642,200 shares and a turnover of 284 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 1.283 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 914 million yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, Guosheng Securities had a net inflow of 48.03 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 22.88 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Dongfang Securities recorded a net inflow of 31.53 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.96 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the securities sector, with the National Securities Leading Index (399437) rising by 0.86% and several constituent stocks, including Industrial Securities (601377) and Huatai Securities (601688), showing significant gains of 2.60% and 2.57% respectively [1] - The Securities ETF Leader (159993) has also seen an increase of 0.87%, with the latest price reported at 1.27 yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] - Over the past week, the Securities ETF Leader has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 52.51 million yuan, totaling 107 million yuan in net inflows, averaging 15.22 million yuan daily [1] Group 2 - In terms of fiscal performance, the national stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan in the first ten months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty contributing 162.9 billion yuan, marking an impressive 88.1% increase [1] - The announcement of the merger between CICC and Dongxing Securities, as well as Xinda Securities, is expected to significantly enhance comprehensive strength and improve asset efficiency through synergies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] - The ongoing supply-side reforms are viewed as a crucial long-term change in the industry, with expectations for valuation recovery in the sector driven by market activity and potential inflows from retail investors [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the securities industry is entering a new phase of mergers and acquisitions, termed "M&A 2.0," which emphasizes functional enhancement and the creation of a complementary business ecosystem rather than merely increasing capital size [3][5]. - The report highlights that recent mergers, such as the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC, reflect a shift towards strengthening professional capabilities and expanding business lines [4][18]. - The overall improvement in the securities industry's fundamentals, including active market trading and growth in margin financing, is expected to drive both valuations and profitability for brokerages [4][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant wave of mergers and restructuring in China's securities industry, driven by both policy support and market competition. The aim is to cultivate leading investment banks and enhance core competitiveness through consolidation [6][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed brokerages achieved revenue of CNY 421.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.57%, and a net profit of CNY 169.29 billion, up 62.48% [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is highlighted as a scale-driven consolidation, significantly enhancing net capital strength and risk tolerance, while optimizing the national network layout [15][17]. - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities is characterized as a functional superiority-driven integration, aimed at enhancing business capabilities and expanding service offerings [18][20]. Business Structure and Performance - The report outlines a dual-driven characteristic in the securities industry, with brokerage and proprietary trading as the main revenue drivers. In the first three quarters of 2025, brokerage income reached CNY 111.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 74.64% [11]. - The revenue structure is shifting, with brokerage income accounting for 26.5%, investment income 44.4%, and other segments contributing to the overall performance [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent mergers are likely to stimulate investment enthusiasm in the industry. It recommends focusing on leading brokerages with comprehensive performance layouts and those with high elasticity in earnings, such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities [22].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Industrial Securities has shown a mixed performance with a year-to-date increase of 8.60%, but a decline in the recent trading periods, indicating potential volatility in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Industrial Securities reported a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 90.98% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 10.69 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.66 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 24, the stock price reached 6.69 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 312 million yuan and a market capitalization of 57.77 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a net outflow of 548,800 yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 207,300, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased to 41,654 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with notable changes in their holdings [3].

责任编辑：小浪快报 截至9月30日，兴业证券股东户数20.73万，较上期减少5.68%；人均流通股41654股，较上期增加 6.02%。2025年1月-9月，兴业证券实现营业收入0.00元；归母净利润25.21亿元，同比增长90.98%。 分红方面，兴业证券A股上市后累计派现106.90亿元。近三年，累计派现46.63亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，兴业证券十大流通股东中，中国证券金融股份有限公司位居第四 大流通股东，持股2.14亿股，持股数量较上期不变。香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流通股东，持股 1.80亿股，相比上期减少1.46亿股。国泰中证全指证券公司ETF（512880）位居第六大流通股东，持股 1.79亿股，相比上期增加7201.09万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第九大流通股东，持股 1.17亿股，相比上期减少564.48万股。华宝中证全指证券公司ETF（512000）位居第十大流通股东，持 股1.16亿股，为新进股东。 11月21日，兴业证券跌5.07%，成交额10.70亿元。两融数据显示，当日兴业证券获融资买入额1.16亿 元，融资偿还1.17亿元，融资净买 ...

Market Overview - The recent global market downturn, driven by heightened risk aversion, has led to a significant adjustment in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points [2][3] - Key sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment have experienced notable pullbacks, while banking, shipbuilding, and consumer sectors have shown relative resilience [2] External Influences - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external factors, including concerns over the "AI bubble," a retreat in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a cautious shift in market sentiment [3][4] - The volatility in global risk assets has been exacerbated by year-end fund settlement periods, prompting some investors to lock in profits and rankings through selling [3] Fundamental Support - Despite recent market fluctuations, the fundamental factors supporting the current rally in the Chinese stock market remain intact, including steady macroeconomic recovery, improved competitiveness of key industries, and enhanced capital market positioning [4][5] - The adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with expectations for a potential recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [4] Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment presents a strategic opportunity for investors to reposition their portfolios ahead of the anticipated spring market rally in 2026 [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the internal certainties of the Chinese market, such as new growth momentum and clear policy direction, will not be adversely affected by external disturbances [5][6] - Following the adjustment, sectors such as banking and insurance, along with consumer stocks with stable fundamentals, may present rotation opportunities before the technology sector regains momentum [6]

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]