智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国铝业(02600)与力拓新成立的合资公司收购巴西铝业 68.59%的股权，中国铝业持有该合资公司67%的股权，交易总对价约为63.9亿元人民币(下同)，其中中 国铝业需支付约42亿元。该行予中国铝业目标价15.1港元，评级"增持"。 报告指出，巴西铝业在巴西运营200万吨铝土矿、80万吨氧化铝、43万吨原铝及21.5万吨加工产能。本 次交易价格对应约每吨14,860元（约每吨2,140美元），而当前铝价为每吨3,181美元。假设收购完成， 根据巴西法律，合资公司将对巴西铝业所有剩余股份发起强制性要约收购，并已提议后续将其私有化退 市。该交易尚待境内外监管机构批准。 摩根士丹利对中国铝业开拓海外增长持正面看法，认为若交易完成，考虑到中国市场严格的产能控制， 此次收购将为中国铝业开启海外绿色铝产能的增长空间。同时，该行预计在行业基本面紧张及宏观环境 支持的背景下，铝价将维持高位，加上产能增长，有望为中国铝业带来盈利上行空间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Aluminum and Rio Tinto's newly established joint venture is acquiring a 68.59% stake in Brazilian aluminum, with China Aluminum holding a 67% stake in the joint venture [1] - The total transaction value is approximately 6.39 billion yuan, with China Aluminum required to pay about 4.2 billion yuan [1] - Morgan Stanley has a positive outlook on China Aluminum's overseas growth, suggesting that if the transaction is completed, it will open up growth opportunities for overseas green aluminum production due to strict capacity controls in the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The firm expects that under the backdrop of a tight industry fundamentals and supportive macro environment, aluminum prices will remain high, which, along with capacity growth, is likely to provide profit upside for China Aluminum [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of 15.1 HKD for China Aluminum and maintains an "Overweight" rating [1]

该行指，根据目标公司2025年前九个月净利润年化计算，是次收购价格隐含的2025年预测市盈率约为13 倍。考虑到2026年铝价预期将较去年同期走强，收购价格具有吸引力。同时，该行预期是次潜在收购将 为中国铝业带来每年43万吨的铝产能，意味产能增长约6%；维持中国铝业为行业首选，现予目标价 15.94港元及"买入"评级。 花旗发表研报指，中国铝业拟成立合资公司，以现金收购沃特兰亭持有的巴西铝业4.46亿股普通股，代 价约62.86亿元。另外，合资公司将根据法规，对巴西铝业剩余全部流通股发起强制要约收购，并拟在 发起强制要约收购的同时发起退市要约，但也可能会在前述控股权收购完成后重新评估有关发起退市要 约的计划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with spot gold dropping over 6% on February 2, reflecting a fragile structure after a sharp short-term rise. The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous sector remains strong due to factors such as the restructuring of the monetary credit system, supply-side rigidity, and new demand dynamics, although short-term risks of correction should be monitored [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The non-ferrous sector has shown volatility, with traditional valuation models becoming ineffective as market sentiment and geopolitical factors increasingly influence prices [3]. - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to expectations of policy shifts, including a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, which could impact liquidity and future interest rate cuts [3]. - On January 30, international gold prices recorded their largest single-day drop in 40 years, indicating heightened volatility and risk in the gold market, prompting experts to advise caution among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The non-ferrous sector presents both long-term investment opportunities and short-term risks, necessitating a rational approach from investors based on their risk tolerance [1]. - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) indicates a significant drop in component stocks, with many experiencing declines of over 5% [2][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term fundamentals for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin remain strong, with expectations for price recovery post-correction [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics, including high global debt and geopolitical uncertainties, provide a solid foundation for precious metal prices to trend positively in the long run [4]. - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, positioning it well to benefit from the ongoing supercycle in non-ferrous metals [5][9]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return leading its peers, with a significant portion of its gains driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant decline in the performance of non-ferrous metal stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit down, and Northern Rare Earth dropping over 5% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have also seen a decline of over 5% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have risen significantly, but industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have also shown good growth, with multiple metals reaching historical or phase highs [2] - The super cycle of non-ferrous metals is attributed to three main factors: the weakening trend of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand gaps caused by declining ore grades and rising marginal costs in major mines, and domestic policies aimed at optimizing excess capacity [2]

中国铝业（601600）(601600.SH、02600.HK)拟收购海外铝资源。 1月30日，中国铝业发布公告称，拟与国际矿业巨头力拓斥资62.86亿元，联合收购巴西铝业68.596%股 权。其中，中国铝业拟出资42.11亿元。 2025年以来，下游需求旺盛，中国铝业业绩延续增长，前三季度盈利108.72亿元。与此同时，公司股价 大幅上涨。K线图显示，中国铝业的A股股价2025年1月底报7.5元/股，2026年1月底最高触及15.85元/ 股，一年涨幅达111%。 资产规模增长的同时资产质量进一步优化。截至2025年三季度末，中国铝业总资产达2304亿元，资产负 债率为46.38%，创出十年新低。 此外，该公司还控股或参股21座水电站和4个风电站，年权益发电量约70亿度，全部为可再生能源，吨 铝碳排放处于全球领先水平。财务数据显示，2024年巴西铝业实现营业收入81.74亿雷亚尔；2025年前9 月营业收入65.95亿雷亚尔，净利润3.93亿雷亚尔。 中国铝业表示，本次交易契合公司优化全球产业布局的发展方向，将结合公司在铝行业的技术、管理及 全产业链运营优势与力拓的可持续发展、国际化经营经验，在巴西打造新的 ...

Group 1 - The top ten stocks with net financing purchases on January 30 include: Lanke Technology (342 million), China Aluminum (336 million), Shijia Photon (210 million), Zhaoyi Innovation (207 million), Dongcai Technology (167 million), Jianghuai Automobile (165 million), Longi Green Energy (109 million), Sikan Technology (94.385 million), Hongda Shares (88.6549 million), and Fuling Power (87.6586 million) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in the metals sector due to intensified capital competition, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [2][5]. - The report suggests that the precious metals sector is poised for recovery, driven by central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [4][24]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to see price increases due to stable supply-demand dynamics and significant infrastructure investments [4][48]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.29 percentage points [5][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 22.59%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 20.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 0.32% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.79% week-on-week [16]. - Precious metals saw significant price changes, with gold prices down by 1.52% and silver prices down by 17.44% [16]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories in domestic markets decreased by 0.7 million tons, while exchange inventories increased by 2.5 million tons [33]. - Aluminum social inventories totaled 102.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.05 million tons [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Precious Metals**: The report emphasizes the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [24]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper demand is expected to remain strong, supported by infrastructure investments and a stable supply chain [4][33]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [4].

Key Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for February 2026, highlighting investment opportunities based on specific market conditions and company performance [1][2]. Financial and Valuation Summary - **Banking Sector**: - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is recommended due to its clear performance bottom, attractive valuation, and potential for retail credit recovery [1][3]. - **Non-Banking Financials**: - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is favored for its ongoing transformation and improved product structure, alongside easing real estate risks [1][3]. - **Food and Beverage**: - Weilong Delicious Food (9985.HK) is noted for its innovative product development and solid channel foundation, expected to maintain or slightly increase profit margins [1][3]. - **Home Appliances**: - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) is highlighted for its strategic positioning in high-end markets and operational efficiency improvements, benefiting from domestic policies and overseas demand [1][3]. - **Power Equipment**: - Keli (002782.SZ) is recognized for its strong market position in magnetic components and ongoing overseas expansion, with a focus on solid-state transformer applications [1][3]. - **Basic Chemicals**: - China Petroleum (601857.SH) is expected to benefit from declining natural gas import costs and increasing domestic market share [1][3]. - **Metals and Materials**: - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is positioned for growth due to its acquisition of Brazilian aluminum assets and high profitability from rising aluminum prices [1][3]. - **Electronics**: - Lante Optics (688127.SH) anticipates significant profit growth driven by expanding demand in various tech sectors, including AR glasses [1][3]. - **Internet**: - Alibaba (9988.HK) is projected to see substantial cloud revenue growth, supported by its "Cloud + AI + Chip" strategy [1][3]. - **Machinery**: - Boying Welding (301468.SZ) is expected to capture market share in HRSG and oil and gas composite pipes, benefiting from North American demand [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation, through its subsidiary China Aluminum Hong Kong Co., Ltd., plans to acquire a 68.596% stake in Brazil Aluminum Company by establishing a joint venture with Rio Tinto International Holdings in Brazil, enhancing its green development and international operational capabilities [1]. Group 1 - China Aluminum Corporation's subsidiary, China Aluminum Co., Ltd., intends to acquire equity in Brazil Aluminum Company [1]. - The acquisition will be executed through a joint venture with Rio Tinto International Holdings [1]. - Brazil Aluminum Company operates a full industry chain covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, recycled aluminum, and power supply [1]. Group 2 - In 2024, Brazil Aluminum Company is projected to produce 720,000 tons of alumina and 364,500 tons of low-carbon aluminum liquid [1]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance China Aluminum's capabilities in green development and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) [1].