中国铝业第三季度营收601.2亿元人民币。 ...

中国铝业10月27日公告，2025年第三季度实现营业收入601.24亿元，同比下降4.66%；归属于上市公司 股东的净利润38.01亿元，同比增长90.31%；基本每股收益0.222元。前三季度实现营业收入1765.16亿 元，同比增长1.57%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润108.72亿元，同比增长20.65%；基本每股收益0.635 元。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生7笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为1.62亿元。该股近5个交易日累计 上涨12.31%，主力资金合计净流入4.87亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 第1笔成交价格为9.40元，成交1,400.00万股，成交金额13,160.00万元，溢价率为0.00%，买方营业部为 中信证券股份有限公司总部(非营业场所)，卖方营业部为中信证券股份有限公司深圳滨海大道证券营业 部。 10月27日，中国铝业收涨1.84%，收盘价为9.40元，发生1笔大宗交易，合计成交量1400万股，成交金额 1.32亿元。 ...

Group 1 - China Aluminum's stock price increased by 1.84% to 9.40 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.747 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.07%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 161.263 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 12.31% during this period [1] - China Aluminum's main business includes exploration and mining of bauxite and coal, production and sales of alumina, primary aluminum, and aluminum alloy products, as well as international trade and logistics [1] Group 2 - The fund "Chuangjin Hexin Xinrui Mixed A" holds a significant position in China Aluminum, with 34,200 shares, unchanged from the previous period, representing 0.23% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 5,814 CNY today and 35,200 CNY during the five-day increase [2] - The fund was established on April 26, 2021, with a current scale of 10.953 million CNY and a year-to-date return of 4.21% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager Wang Yibing has a tenure of 10 years and 169 days, managing assets totaling 5.003 billion CNY, with the best fund return of 21.02% during his tenure [3] - Co-manager Huang Haodong has a tenure of 5 years and 317 days, managing assets of 373 million CNY, with the best fund return of 17.54% during his tenure [3]

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys" [1] Core Viewpoint - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the decline in domestic social inventories have made aluminum prices cautiously bullish [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Section Alumina - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The construction of China National Aluminum's Guixi Nadou sedimentary bauxite mine has started, with an expected annual output of 800,000 physical tons. The first phase of the bauxite recycling project in Qingzhen City has started producing 440,000 tons of aluminum concentrate per year. The production of domestic bauxite in October may increase month-on-month. Several alumina projects are under construction or in production, which may increase the domestic alumina production in October [3][18][26] - Overseas: The third-phase project of Nanshan Aluminum's Bintan Alumina in Indonesia with a capacity of 1 million tons started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025. The overseas alumina production in October may increase, and the domestic alumina imports in October may increase month-on-month [3][35] - **Demand Side** - The matching surplus of China's alumina operating capacity compared to electrolytic aluminum in September has expanded month-on-month [3][26] - **Inventory** - The total inventory of China's alumina has increased compared to last week, including the inventory in ports, warehouses, and factories [15][17][27] - **Price and Cost** - The alumina basis is positive, and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. The near-far month contract closing prices show a Contango structure. The average daily full production cost of China's alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [12][22][14] - **Investment Strategy** - The domestic alumina supply and demand are expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the downside of alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 [4] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The first phase of the energy-saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Electrolytic Aluminum's second phase has started production, and the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's green power aluminum project is expected to be put into production in December 2025. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October may increase month-on-month. The import volume in October may also increase month-on-month due to the restart of overseas capacities [5][56][60] - Overseas: Several overseas electrolytic aluminum projects are restarting or expanding production [60] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has remained flat compared to last week. The production of remelted rods (aluminum rods) in October may increase month-on-month [5] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory in bonded areas, LME, and COMEX has also decreased [45][46] - **Price and Cost** - The Shanghai aluminum basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,080 yuan/ton [39][41][56] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the increasing proportion of domestic electrolytic aluminum molten aluminum production leading to a decline in inventories may make Shanghai aluminum prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [6] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in October may increase month-on-month, while the import volume may decrease. The production of primary (recycled, ADC12) aluminum alloys in October may decrease month-on-month [7][70][81] - Overseas: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China has declined [7] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week [90] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's aluminum alloys has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has also decreased [86][81] - **Price and Cost** - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The daily full production cost of China's primary aluminum alloy is 20,920 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,700 yuan/ton [64][75][78] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the expected tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum may make aluminum alloy prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys with a light position in the short term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [8]

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index has seen a strong increase of 1.70%, with notable gains from stocks such as China Xidian up 6.61% and Shanghai Electric up 6.40% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a plan aiming for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, enhancing project economics through supportive policies [5] - The demand for energy storage is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with projections indicating a 30%-40% increase in global energy storage installations over the next two years [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) has increased by 1.63%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.25 yuan [3] - The ETF has seen a weekly cumulative increase of 2.85% as of October 24, 2025, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's trading volume reached 416.82 million yuan with a turnover rate of 9.1% [3] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - The new energy storage plan outlines a target of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with supportive measures from provinces like Henan to enhance project viability [5] - The energy storage market is experiencing robust demand, driven by new pricing policies and increased investment from social capital [4] - The lithium battery demand is projected to exceed 2700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4] Group 3: Industry Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index account for 47.72% of the index, including major players like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [6] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF closely tracks the index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in green energy and fossil energy sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with continued destocking trends and aluminum prices breaking through 21,000 RMB/ton [1][8] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing economic growth and a favorable policy environment [13] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [13] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 24, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,856.5 USD/ton, up 315.0 RMB/ton week-on-week, a 1.5% increase [17] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closed at 21,225.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 315.0 RMB/ton [23] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 thousand tons month-on-month [55] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.604 million tons, down 13.5 thousand tons month-on-month [55] 3. Inventory - As of October 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 618,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 9,000 tons [9] - The domestic aluminum rod inventory increased to 145,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3,000 tons [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2025 [7] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.00 RMB for 2025 [7] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.13 RMB for 2025 [7] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic supply remains stable, while overseas supply disruptions have occurred, such as Century Aluminum's production halt in Iceland [9] - The demand side shows a mixed picture, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, driven by supply disruptions and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [4] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to continuous inventory depletion, while the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [4] - Lithium prices are recovering from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season, with a notable decrease in inventory [4] - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may tighten supply [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the US CPI for September was lower than expected, which may influence market conditions [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index by 1.75 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 27.27, with a weekly change of 0.68, while the PB is 3.17, reflecting a 0.09 change [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.61% in London and 3.95% in Shanghai, with inventories decreasing [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.78% in London and 1.14% in Shanghai, with a notable increase in aluminum enterprise profits [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 2.00% and zinc by 2.48% [47] - Lithium prices for lithium carbonate rose by 2.79% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 4.14% to 881 USD/ton [76] - Cobalt prices saw a significant increase, with MB cobalt rising by 7.75% to 22.60 USD/pound [89]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the sector [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the precious metals market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the medium to long term due to inflationary pressures and global liquidity easing, despite recent price corrections [1][34] - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and liquidity easing, while aluminum prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to overseas production cuts and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are projected to see strong price performance driven by positive demand expectations, while cobalt prices are also on an upward trend despite cautious purchasing strategies from downstream buyers [3][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. September CPI recorded at 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][34] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined to 53.6, reflecting weak economic fundamentals [1][34] - The report suggests that the recent pullback in gold prices is considered sufficient, and long-term bullish trends remain intact [1][34] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to disruptions in mining and easing liquidity conditions [2] - Global copper inventory increased by 19,400 tons, with Chinese inventory rising by 17,100 tons [2] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry in China is maintaining production levels, while overseas production cuts are expected to support aluminum prices [2] - Nickel demand remains strong, particularly in the battery sector, with prices expected to rise [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are showing strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.4% to 80,000 yuan/ton [3][25] - Cobalt prices are also on the rise, supported by strong demand from the ternary material sector, although purchasing strategies are becoming more cautious [3][25] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao for industrial metals [2][8] - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions, particularly for copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals like lithium and cobalt are projected to perform well, driven by strong demand in the energy storage market and supply constraints [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but long-term trends remain bullish due to central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions, with the SMM import copper concentrate index at $51.2/ton, down $0.6/ton month-on-month [2]. - Aluminum demand is robust, particularly from the automotive sector, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at approximately 618,000 tons, down 9,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - Key companies recommended include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium supply is increasing due to new production lines, while demand from the energy storage market is exceeding expectations, supporting strong prices [3]. - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Chinese companies receiving fewer export quotas than expected [3]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Yichun Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are experiencing short-term volatility due to optimistic international conditions, but long-term outlook remains positive with central bank purchases [4]. - Silver prices are influenced by industrial demand and follow gold's price movements [4]. - Recommended companies include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [4].