Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the growth in new business value (NBV) is driven by the bancassurance channel, while investment volatility has pressured profit margins [2][3][5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 937.17 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 96.27 billion yuan, down 18.1% year-on-year [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 3.5%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In Q1 2025, the company’s life insurance segment reported a premium income of 1,184.22 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, with a significant growth in new business value (NBV) of 57.78 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [3] - The bancassurance channel saw a premium income of 257.22 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 107.8% year-on-year, with new premium income rising by 130.7% [3] Property Insurance - The property insurance segment recorded a premium income of 631.08 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [4] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 97.4%, a year-on-year enhancement of 0.6 percentage points, attributed to reduced natural disaster losses and enhanced management controls [4] Investment Performance - The company’s investment assets totaled 28,102.08 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% compared to the end of the previous year [5] - The net investment yield was 0.8%, unchanged year-on-year, while the total investment return rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.0% [5] - Fair value changes in investments significantly declined to 1.655 billion yuan from 15.104 billion yuan in the previous year, impacting overall profit performance [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, estimating revenues of 4,154 billion yuan, 4,219 billion yuan, and 4,382 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6] - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at 455 billion yuan, 462 billion yuan, and 508 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios are forecasted to be 0.49, 0.46, and 0.43 for 2025-2027, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [6]

保险行业点评 万能险机制功能和定位迎来重构 2025 年 04 月 27 日 分析师：张凯烽 研究助理：李劲锋 执业证号：S0100524070006 执业证号：S0100124080012 邮箱：zhangkaifeng@mszq.com 邮箱：lijinfeng_2@mszq.com [Table_Author] 推荐 维持评级 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 25 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于加强万能型 人身保险监管有关事项的通知》（以下简称《通知》），就产品开发、保障水平、账 户管理、资金运用和销售行为等方面进行了规范和调整。 ➢ 产品管理：强化万能险保障属性，拉长万能险期限。1）万能险定义，产品 设计和开发规范化：《通知》明确万能险定义，通过四项特征（如名称含"万能 型"、保障功能、单独账户、最低收益保证）来正式确定万能险产品，引导万能险 产品设计规范化发展，有利于杜绝部分产品设计和功能"异化"，同时有望加强消 费者权益保护，减少相关产品误导。2）万能险机制的适用险种，同时引导产品 长期化：《通知》仅允许终身寿险、两全保险和年金保险设计为万能型，定期寿险 被剔除，同时保障期限不得低于 5 年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) reported a slight decline in operating revenue and a significant drop in net profit, while new business value saw substantial growth driven by the rapid development of the bancassurance channel [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CPIC's operating revenue was 93.72 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.63 billion yuan, down 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - The weighted average ROE was 3.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The net investment yield (non-annualized) remained flat at 0.8% year-on-year, while the total investment yield (non-annualized) decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.0% [1][3]. Group 2: New Business Development - The new business value (NBV) increased by 39.0% year-on-year to 5.78 billion yuan, driven by the growth in the bancassurance channel and improved value rate [2]. - The company achieved a premium income of 118.42 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, primarily from renewal business and new bancassurance policies [2]. - The bancassurance channel's new premium income reached 20.11 billion yuan, a significant increase of 130.7% year-on-year, with the proportion of regular premium business rising by 86.1% to 4.51 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Property Insurance Performance - CPIC's property insurance premium income was 63.11 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 1.0% year-on-year, with auto insurance premiums at 26.83 billion yuan (up 1.3%) and non-auto insurance premiums at 36.28 billion yuan (up 0.7%) [3]. - The combined cost ratio improved by 0.6 percentage points to 97.4% due to reduced natural disaster impacts and enhanced expense management [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is advancing its "Long航" transformation and enhancing its multi-channel model, aiming for balanced business development and stable value growth [4]. - With continuous improvement in core human resources and enhanced value contribution from the bancassurance channel, the company expects to maintain positive growth in NBV in 2025 despite a high base [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 51.9 billion, 59.1 billion, and 62.4 billion yuan, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with current prices at 30.82 RMB and 21.55 HKD respectively [1]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in new business value (NBV), with a year-on-year increase of 39% to 57.8 billion RMB in Q1 2025, driven by the development of the bancassurance channel and an increase in the value rate [4][6]. - The overall operating income for Q1 2025 was 937.2 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 96.3 billion RMB, down 18.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is focusing on a multi-channel model upgrade and enhancing its core human resources to ensure balanced business development and stable value growth [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total premium income of 1,184.2 billion RMB, reflecting an 11.8% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by renewal business and new bancassurance policies [4]. - The property insurance segment reported a slight premium growth of 1.0% year-on-year, with a combined cost ratio improving by 0.6 percentage points to 97.4% [5]. - The net investment yield remained stable at 0.8%, while the total investment yield decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 1.0% due to short-term interest rate increases [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 519 billion RMB, 591 billion RMB, and 624 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected growth rate of 15.42% in 2025 [7]. - The report indicates that the A/H share prices correspond to a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.46 for A-shares and 0.31 for H-shares in 2025 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price of 45.5 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline of 18.1% in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 9.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025. However, the new business value (NBV) for life insurance increased by 39% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in this segment. The combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 97.4% [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new insurance premiums, particularly from the bancassurance channel, which saw a 131% year-on-year growth in new business. This growth was partially offset by a decline in the agent channel [8]. - The investment income remained stable, with a net investment yield of 0.8% and a total investment yield of 1%, although the latter saw a decline of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year due to bond market fluctuations [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 404,089 million CNY in 2024 to 438,513 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 44,960 million CNY in 2024 to 49,025 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 4.7 CNY in 2024 to 5.1 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 6.6 to 6.0 over the same period [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [2][8] Core Views - The company's new business value (NBV) increased by 39% year-on-year, while investment performance faced temporary pressure [1][8] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in new single premium insurance and the significant increase in the proportion of dividend insurance new business [6][8] - The report anticipates sustainable growth in NBV and positive effects from product structure transformation under the policy of "promoting development" [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, which was below expectations [5][8] - The NBV for Q1 2025 was 5.778 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3% and a comparable growth of 39% [6][8] - The total investment yield faced temporary pressure, with total investment assets growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 2.81 trillion yuan [7][8] Business Segment Analysis - Individual insurance new single premium decreased by 15.2% year-on-year to 13.668 billion yuan, influenced by multiple factors including product structure optimization [9][8] - The bancassurance channel saw a significant increase, with new single premiums rising by 130.7% year-on-year to 20.114 billion yuan [9][8] - The property insurance segment experienced slow growth, with insurance service revenue increasing by 4.8% year-on-year to 47.741 billion yuan [6][8] Financial Projections - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be 45.268 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [9][8] - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 is 4.71 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.55 [9][8] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 45.268 billion, 48.766 billion, and 56.148 billion yuan respectively [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in New Business Value (NBV) by 39% year-on-year, driven by the performance of the bancassurance channel [8] - The combined ratio (COR) improved year-on-year, indicating better underwriting performance [8] - The company’s first-quarter results showed a slight decline in operating revenue and net profit, but the outlook remains positive due to strategic initiatives [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 323,945 million - 2024A: 404,089 million (up 24.74%) - 2025E: 414,571 million (up 2.59%) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 27,257 million - 2024A: 44,960 million (up 64.95%) - 2025E: 48,864 million (up 8.68%) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 2.83 - 2024A: 4.67 - 2025E: 5.08 [1] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Current market capitalization corresponds to a 2025E Price to Embedded Value (PEV) of 0.50x and Price to Book (PB) of 0.90x, indicating the stock is undervalued [8] Business Segment Performance - **Life Insurance**: - NBV reached 57.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 39% on a comparable basis [8] - Bancassurance channel new business premium increased by 130.7% year-on-year [8] - **Property and Casualty Insurance**: - The combined ratio improved to 97.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Original premium income for property insurance was 631 billion, up 1% year-on-year [8] Investment Performance - **Investment Assets**: - Total investment assets reached 28,102 billion, an increase of 2.8% from the beginning of the year [8] - The annualized net investment yield remained stable at 0.8% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the new business value (NBV) increased by 39% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bancassurance channel [1][8] - The combined ratio (COR) improved year-on-year, indicating better underwriting performance [8] - The report notes a decline in total revenue by 1.8% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 18.1% [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 323,945 million - 2024A: 404,089 million - 2025E: 414,571 million - 2026E: 416,653 million - 2027E: 418,358 million - Year-on-year growth rates: -2.47% (2023A), 24.74% (2024A), 2.59% (2025E), 0.50% (2026E), 0.41% (2027E) [1][22] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 27,257 million - 2024A: 44,960 million - 2025E: 48,864 million - 2026E: 46,875 million - 2027E: 46,101 million - Year-on-year growth rates: -27.08% (2023A), 64.95% (2024A), 8.68% (2025E), -4.07% (2026E), -1.65% (2027E) [1][22] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 2.83 - 2024A: 4.67 - 2025E: 5.08 - 2026E: 4.87 - 2027E: 4.79 [1][22] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Current market capitalization is 296,498.92 million with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.93 for 2022 and projected P/E of 6.07 for 2025E [5][22] Business Segment Performance - **Life Insurance**: - New business value (NBV) reached 57.8 million, with a year-on-year increase of 39% on a comparable basis [8] - Individual insurance new premium decreased by 15.2%, while bancassurance new premium surged by 130.7% [8] - **Property and Casualty Insurance**: - The combined ratio improved to 97.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Total premium income for property insurance was 631 million, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [8] - **Investment Performance**: - Total investment assets reached 28,102 million, up 2.8% from the beginning of the year [8] - The annualized net investment yield remained stable at 0.8% [8]

Core Insights - The net profit of China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) declined by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.627 billion yuan in Q1, primarily due to fluctuations in the fair value of investment assets [1][3] - Despite the challenges in new single premium insurance, the new business value increased by 11.3% year-on-year, reaching 5.778 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 39% [3] Financial Performance - In Q1, CPIC achieved insurance service revenue of 69.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with life insurance revenue at 20.98 billion yuan (up 0.6%) and property insurance revenue at 47.741 billion yuan (up 4.8%) [2] - The new single premium insurance from the agent channel decreased by 15.2% year-on-year, while the bancassurance channel saw a significant increase of 130.7%, reaching 20.114 billion yuan [2] Investment Strategy - As of the end of Q1, CPIC's investment assets totaled 2.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.8% from the previous year [4] - The company maintained a disciplined approach to strategic asset allocation, focusing on long-term fixed income assets and actively managing equity investments to achieve stable performance [4] Share Buyback Plan - The board of CPIC approved a proposal to seek shareholder authorization for a share buyback, with a maximum of 1% of the issued shares, which could cost over 2.5 billion yuan based on current market prices [1]

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in operating revenue for Q1 2025, totaling 93.717 billion yuan, and a net profit decrease of 18.1%, amounting to 9.627 billion yuan [1] - The insurance service revenue reached 69.550 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.9% year-on-year growth, with life insurance service revenue at 20.980 billion yuan (up 0.6%) and property insurance service revenue at 47.741 billion yuan (up 4.8%) [1] Life Insurance Segment - In Q1 2025, the life insurance segment achieved a premium income of 118.422 billion yuan, marking an 11.8% increase year-on-year [2] - New business value for life insurance was reported at 5.778 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year, with a comparable growth of 39.0% [1] - The proportion of new premium income from participating insurance products increased to 18.2%, a rise of 16.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a shift in product focus due to lower interest rates [1] Agency and Distribution Channels - The total number of insurance agents stabilized at 188,000, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year growth, with a monthly average first-year premium per core agent at 83,000 yuan [2] - The new business scale through agency channels decreased by 15.2% year-on-year, while the bancassurance channel saw significant growth, achieving a premium income of 25.722 billion yuan, up 107.8% year-on-year [2] - New premium income from the bancassurance channel reached 20.114 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 130.7% year-on-year [2] Property Insurance Segment - The property insurance segment reported original premium income of 63.108 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year growth, with motor insurance premiums at 26.833 billion yuan (up 1.3%) and non-motor insurance premiums at 36.275 billion yuan (up 0.7%) [2] - The insurance service revenue for property insurance was 47.741 billion yuan, representing a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a combined underwriting cost ratio of 97.4%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]