证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 中国太保 2024 年年报点评：价值大幅增长， 投资表现亮眼 [Table_Title2] 中国太保（601601.SH） | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 601601.SH | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 43.01/22.08 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿元) | 2,844.46 | | 最新收盘价： | 32.20 | 自由流通市值(亿元) | 2,204.10 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万股) | 6,845 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 中国太保发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现归母净利润 449.60 亿元，同比+64.9%；归母营运利润 344.25 亿元，同比+2.5%；内含价值 5,602.66 亿元，较上年末+6.2%；加权平均 ROE 为 16.6%，同比+5.2pp。基 于 2023 年经济假设（投资收 ...

财险量升价减，大灾阶段性影响赔付表现。24 年公司保险服务收入yoy+8.1%至1913.97 亿元，COR 达 98.6%，yoy+0.9pct；其中，综合赔付率/综合费用率yoy+1.7pct /-0.8pct 至70.8%/27.8%，承保利润yoy- 35.5%至26.72 亿元。1）车险：保费yoy+3.7%至1073.02 亿元，COR 受大灾影响yoy+0.6pct 至98.2%，承 保利润yoy-22.5%至18.68 亿元。新能源车险保费贡献占比达17%。2）非车险：保费yoy+10.7%至939.41 亿元，COR 受自然灾害频发影响+1.4pct 至99.1%，承保利润yoy-53.5%至8.04 亿元。 投资表现亮眼。2024 年权益市场反弹带动投资收益高增，公司净/总/综合投资收益率分别为 3.8%/5.6%/6.0%，yoy-0.2pct/+3.0pct/+3.3pct；期末，公司投资资产yoy+21.5%至2.73万亿元，债权类资 产、股权类资产、现金及现金等价物、定期存款、投资性房地产占比分别为 75.9%/14.5%/1.5%/6.4%/0.3%，较23 年末水平+1.4pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [2][8] Core Views - The company's new business value (NBV) grew by 57.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, while the agent scale has stabilized [6][8] - The company adjusted its long-term investment return assumptions down by 50 basis points to 4.0%, and the risk discount rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% [6] - The expected net profit for 2024 is projected at 44.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [5][10] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 44.96 billion yuan and an operating profit of 34.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 64.9% and 2.5% respectively [5][10] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 404.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.7% [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 4.67 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [10][12] Investment Performance - The company's investment income for 2024 is expected to reach 26.91 billion yuan, with a significant increase driven by the rebound in equity markets [8][12] - The total investment assets increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 27.3 trillion yuan, with equity assets contributing significantly [8] Market Data - As of March 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 32.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of 220.41 billion yuan [2][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 6.89, indicating a favorable valuation [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a significant increase in net profit and new business value (NBV) [1][6] - The life insurance segment's NBV growth is primarily driven by an increase in new business value rate [2] - The property insurance segment faced challenges with an increased claims ratio affecting the combined ratio (COR) [3] - The investment return rates have significantly improved, contributing to the overall profit increase [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 44.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [1] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 34.43 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The NBV for life insurance was 13.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance was 98.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Life Insurance - The NBV growth in 2024 was driven by an increase in the new business value rate, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 16.8% [2] - New single premium decreased slightly by 4.1% year-on-year, with agent channel premiums increasing by 14% while bank insurance channel premiums decreased by 15.6% [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality transformation across various channels, expecting continued rapid growth in NBV [2] Property Insurance - The original insurance premium for property insurance was 201.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The claims ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points, impacting the overall COR, which rose to 98.6% [3] - The company is enhancing risk management and optimizing business structure to improve future COR [3] Investment - The total investment scale reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 21.5% increase compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The net investment return rate was 3.8%, while the total investment return rate was 5.6%, showing a significant improvement [4] - The total investment income was 120.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.5% [4] Assumption Adjustments - The company adjusted its long-term investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in a 23.3% decrease in NBV compared to previous assumptions [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected net profit growth rates of 12%, 19.8%, and 26.8% for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 48.49 yuan, corresponding to a 0.78 times price to embedded value (PEV) for 2025 [6]

证券研究报告 中国太保 (2601 HK/601601 CH) 2024：NBV 增长强劲，H2 寿险 OPAT 增长提速 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 保险 | 中国太保公布 2024 业绩：EPS RMB 4.67 同比增长 65%，略高于我们的 预期 RMB 4.61，增长强劲，主要受投资收益向好推动。公司 2024 年总投 资收益率 5.6%，同比上升 3pcts，带动净利润高增。营运利润（OPAT）可 比口径下同比 2.5%，寿险新业务价值（NBV）可比口径下同比上升 58%， 增长强劲。财产险承保表现略下滑，综合成本率（COR）同比上升 0.9pct， 主要受自然灾害影响。考虑到公司 NBV 有望持续增长，维持"买入"评级。 寿险：NBV 增长强劲 24 年寿险 NBV 可比口径同比提升 58%，主要因 NBV 利润率大幅提升，新 单同比略下降。在定价利率下调和"报行合一"政策压降渠道销售费用的推 动下，我们估计 NBV 利润率（新单保费基准）在假设调整前提升至 21.4% （2023 1 ...

中国太保（601601.SH）2024 年年报点评 资负两端表现亮眼，"长航"转型更进一步 2025 年 03 月 27 日 邮箱：zhangkaifeng@mszq.com 邮箱：lijinfeng_2@mszq.com ➢ 事件：中国太保发布 2024 年年报，集团 2024 年实现营业收入 4040.89 亿 元，同比+24.7%；实现归母净利润 449.60 亿元，同比+64.9%；集团实现营运 利润 344.25 亿元，同比+2.5%。 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 31.76 元 ➢ 寿险改革质态持续显现，新业务价值实现稳健增长，NBVM 同比大幅提升。 1）公司 2024 年实现新业务价值（NBV）132.58 亿元，同比+20.9%；NBVM 为 16.8%，同比+3.5pct，公司纵深推进"长航"转型，业务质态持续向好，保 单质量持续优化带动内含价值稳健增长。2）公司根据宏观环境和市场变化及时、 审慎调整内含价值假设，长期投资收益率假设从 4.5%调整为 4.0%，调整后，新 业务价值同比+57.7%，新业务价值率同比+8.6pct。 ➢ 渠道：个险队伍能力持续提升，银保发展动能显现。1）个险 ...

投资收益"立功"，中国太保2024年实现净利润449.60亿元，同比大幅增长64.9%，创历史新高。靓丽的 2024年业绩披露后，3月27日，中国太保A股股价报收32.2元，上涨1.39%。 "举牌"活跃，中国太保未来还会增加股票投资占比吗？AI大模型在太保有哪些新进展？在27日举行的业 绩会上，中国太保众高管就市场关心的热点议题进行了回应。 启动"人工智能+"战略 应对新市场环境，中国太保已启动大康养、"AI+"和国际化三大战略。中国太保董事长傅帆表示，中国 太保将大力推动大模型场景应用，通过自主研发和合作共创，在客户经营、队伍赋能、承保理赔、合规 风控、投资研究等多个领域深化创新应用，为经营全面赋能。 傅帆认为，人工智能对保险业更多是一种赋能，比如可以通过AI智能体解决个人代理人的知识图谱、 销售技能赋能，以提升营销能力。此外，也给保险业带来更多的业务场景和机会。 傅帆表示，中国太保将加快研究AI应用伴生风险的保障产品，无论是客户隐私，还是网络和数据的安 全，这些伴随着AI应用而产生的风险，都将给保险业带来广阔的业务发展空间。 以网络安全险为例，傅帆指出，目前全球网安险的保费收入约180亿美元，70%以上 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海3月27日电（记者 王淑娟）27日，在中国太保2024年业绩说明会上，中国太保董事长傅帆 表示，中国太保已启动大康养、"AI+"和国际化三大战略，这既是对太保集团多年来可持续发展的延 续，更是面向未来走稳、走深、走实，高质量发展的重要支撑。 "人工智能对包括保险行业在内的整个经济社会发展都将产生颠覆性影响。"傅帆认为，人工智能不仅是 一次简单的技术进步，且可能是与第一次工业革命具有同等重要性的生产力革命。 傅帆表示，人工智能对保险行业来说更多是一种赋能，比如可以通过AI智能体解决个人代理人的知识 图谱、销售技能赋能，以提升营销能力。 同时，傅帆表示，中国太保将大力推动大模型场景应用，通过自主研发和合作共创，在客户经营、队伍 赋能、承保理赔、合规风控、投资研究等多个领域深化创新应用，为经营全面赋能。 "人工智能除了给保险带来赋能之外，还给保险业带来更多的业务场景和机会。"傅帆表示，将加快研究 AI应用伴生风险的保障产品，无论是对客户隐私的保护，网络和数据的安全等，这些伴随着AI应用而 产生的风险，都将给保险业带来广阔的业务发展空间。 以网络安全险为例，傅帆指出，目前全球网安险的保费收 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 27 日 中国太保（601601.SH） 寿险 NBV 高增，产险 COR 有所抬升 总量研究/非银行金融 公司披露 2024 年报，经济假设调整前寿险 NBV 为 172.82 亿，同比+57.7%； 归母净利润 449.60 亿，同比+64.9%；归母营运利润 344.25 亿，同比+2.5%。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 323945 | 404089 | 398148 | 434302 | 485946 | | 同比增长 | -2% | 25% | -1% | 9% | 12% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 32060 | 55711 | 57426 | 63902 | 74077 | | 同比增长 | -25% | 74% | 3% | 11% | 16% | 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：31.76 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price of 45.5 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 404.1 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.0 billion CNY, up 64.9% year-on-year [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the company's investment assets, which rose by 21.5% year-on-year to 2.73 trillion CNY by the end of 2024 [6][7]. - The net new business value (NBV) for life insurance grew by 20.9% year-on-year to 13.3 billion CNY, indicating a stable growth trend [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 was 404,089 million CNY, with a projected growth rate of 3.5% for 2025 [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 44,960 million CNY, with an expected growth of 4.3% in 2025 [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 4.7 CNY, with forecasts of 4.9 CNY for 2025 and 5.0 CNY for 2026 [7]. Business Segment Insights - The life insurance segment's NBV margin increased by 3.5 percentage points to 16.8%, although new business premiums decreased by 5% to 78.9 billion CNY [6][7]. - The property and casualty insurance segment saw a premium income growth of 6.8% to 201.2 billion CNY, outperforming peers [6][7]. - The company’s investment strategy has shifted towards equities and bonds, with a notable increase in equity investments, which now account for 30% of the total investment assets [6][7].