Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.56 points, above the six-month moving average, reflecting a slight increase of 0.21% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1681.524 billion yuan today [1] - A total of 127 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Stocks with significant deviations from the six-month moving average include: - Ainanju (证券代: 920770) with a deviation rate of 9.77% and a daily increase of 12.36% [1] - Huifeng Diamond (证券代: 920725) with a deviation rate of 5.80% and a daily increase of 12.63% [1] - Kaitian Gas (证券代: 920010) with a deviation rate of 5.69% and a daily increase of 7.07% [1] - Other notable stocks with smaller deviations include Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, Qingdao Port, and Ningbo Energy, which have just crossed the six-month moving average [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a collective rebound in the insurance sector, particularly in health insurance, driven by regulatory support and market dynamics [1][2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of health insurance, indicating a strategic direction and phased goals for the sector [1] - The reintroduction of dividend-type long-term health insurance products is expected to enhance product attractiveness and stimulate market growth potential, especially after a long hiatus since 2003 [1] Group 2 - Following the recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance, there was a sales peak before the change, but a subsequent impact on product sales is anticipated [2] - Dividend-type products have only seen a minor reduction of 0.25% in their predetermined interest rates, making them a more favorable choice for consumers compared to traditional life insurance products [2] - The narrowing gap of 25 basis points between the predetermined interest rates of dividend-type and traditional products, combined with the flexibility of floating returns, enhances the competitive advantage of dividend-type products [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) is taking significant steps to enhance its international presence and address capital structure pressures through the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds in Hong Kong, following a similar move by Ping An [5][10][15]. Financing Strategy - CPIC announced the issuance of HKD 15.6 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing in 2030, which can be converted into H-shares [5]. - The funds raised will primarily support the insurance core business and the implementation of three strategic initiatives: "Great Health," "AI+," and internationalization [6]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is seen as a strategic move to supplement capital and accelerate internationalization, especially as CPIC's net assets have decreased by 3.3% since the beginning of the year [6][12]. Industry Context - The issuance of convertible bonds has become a common practice among large insurance companies, balancing the need for continuous dividends with increasing solvency pressures [7]. - CPIC is the second mainland insurance company to utilize this financing method in Hong Kong, following Ping An's USD 3.5 billion issuance last year, indicating a potential trend in the industry [8][17]. Internationalization Efforts - CPIC has lagged behind peers like Ping An and China Life in international expansion, with a total QDII quota of USD 2.627 billion, slightly above Xinhua's USD 2.4 billion, despite having a larger asset base [12]. - Recent initiatives include the approval of a tokenized USD money market fund and the launch of electric vehicle insurance in Thailand, marking a significant acceleration in overseas business development [14]. Regulatory Environment - The issuance of USD convertible bonds allows CPIC to maintain a lower dilution pressure on equity and create a funding pool for overseas operations without the complexities of capital repatriation [15]. - The current regulatory framework provides flexibility for funds raised through convertible bonds to remain offshore, reducing friction costs associated with cross-border capital flows [16]. Future Implications - The trend of using convertible bonds for financing may lead to more insurance companies following suit, prompting regulatory scrutiny regarding capital management and fund usage [17]. - The potential for increased participation from other insurers could transform this financing method from an isolated innovation into a collective industry trend [17].

从资金流向上来看，当日保险板块主力资金净流入1588.64万元，游资资金净流出5168.95万元，散户资金 净流入3580.31万元。保险板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 34.92 | -0.40% | 43.82万 | 15.16 Z | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 55.10 | -0.79% | 60.97万 | 33.53亿 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | 62.18 | -0.83% | 20.55万 | 12.72亿 | | 61319 | 中国人保 | 7.83 | -1.14% | 80.75万 | 6.28 Z | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 39.17 | -1.24% | 13.02万 | 5.0917, | 证券之星消息，10月13日保险板块较上一交易日下跌0.97%，中国人寿领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3889.5，下跌0.19%。深证成指报收于13231.47，下跌0.93 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the insurance industry, with expectations for continued growth driven by policy support and market demand [5][34]. Core Insights - The insurance industry in China is experiencing stable competition, with significant head effects among leading companies. Premium income from life insurance is the main growth driver, while property insurance is also seeing growth due to rising car insurance revenue and rapid health insurance growth [4][34]. - Investment returns have decreased compared to the previous year due to fluctuations in bond rates and underperformance in equity markets, despite an increase in the scale of funds utilized by insurance companies [4][5]. - The overall solvency of the industry has improved, with a decrease in the number of companies failing to meet solvency standards, although market volatility poses challenges to solvency levels [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the insurance industry maintained a stable competitive landscape, with premium income from life insurance companies growing by 5.38% year-on-year, driven primarily by life insurance business [15][34]. - Property insurance companies also saw a 5.10% increase in premium income, with car insurance revenue rebounding and health insurance growing rapidly [16][34]. 2. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework for the insurance industry has tightened, with an increase in the frequency of policy releases aimed at enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development [8][34]. 3. Financial Performance - As of June 2025, the total assets of the reinsurance industry reached 0.86 trillion yuan, a 3.96% increase from the previous year, although some companies experienced a decline in premium income [18][34]. - The solvency ratios for insurance companies improved, with the comprehensive solvency ratio at 204.5% and core solvency ratio at 147.8% as of June 2025 [22][34]. 4. Investment and Returns - The total investment balance of the insurance industry reached 36.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.39%, with fixed-income instruments remaining the primary investment category [19][34]. - Investment returns have been affected by market volatility, with a general decline in investment yield compared to the previous year [28][34]. 5. Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to continue its stable growth trajectory, supported by favorable policies and increasing market demand, although attention must be paid to potential market fluctuations and regulatory changes [5][34].

- Model Name: Expected High Dividend Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model uses a two-stage approach to construct the expected dividend yield indicator. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on the annual report's profit distribution, and the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators. Additionally, two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening, and the selection is made from the CSI 300 constituent stocks to construct the expected high dividend portfolio. The portfolio holds 30 stocks each period and rebalances monthly[3][8] - Model Construction Process: 1. Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituent stocks to form the candidate stock pool[13] 2. Exclude the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (i.e., the top 20% of stocks with the highest 21-day cumulative gains) from the stock pool[13] 3. Exclude stocks with declining profitability (i.e., stocks with a negative year-on-year growth rate of quarterly net profit)[13] 4. Rank the remaining stocks in the stock pool by expected dividend yield and select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield to construct the portfolio equally weighted[9] - Model Evaluation: The model's historical performance is outstanding, with a cumulative return of 358.90% and a cumulative excess return of 107.44% relative to the CSI 300 Total Return Index. The annualized excess return is 8.87%, with a maximum rolling one-year drawdown of only 12.26% and a monthly excess win rate of 60.19%[11] Model Backtest Results - Expected High Dividend Portfolio, average return in September 2025: -5.35%, underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 8.09% and the CSI Dividend Index by 3.87%[3][14] - Best performing stocks in September 2025: CITIC Special Steel (3.81%), Yutong Bus (-0.35%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (-1.75%), Shuanghui Development (-1.90%)[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: Expected Dividend Yield Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed by predicting dividend distribution using the method of dividend distribution combined with fundamental indicators. Two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening[14] - Factor Construction Process: 1. Calculate the dividend yield based on the annual report's profit distribution[8] 2. Predict and calculate the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators[8] - Factor Evaluation: The factor is used to assist in screening and constructing the expected high dividend portfolio, which has shown outstanding historical performance[3][8] Factor Backtest Results - Expected Dividend Yield Factor, average return in September 2025: -5.35%, underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 8.09% and the CSI Dividend Index by 3.87%[3][14]

| | | | 对中国太平洋! | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中国太平洋财产 | 利用开展保险业务为 | 产保险股份有 | | | | 其他机构或者个人牟 | 公司台州中心 | | | 保险股份有限公 | | | | 2 | 司台州中心支公 | 取不正当利益。 | 公司罚款人民 | | | 司及相关责任人 | | 5万元,对胡灌 | | | | | 警告并罚款人 | | | | | 币1万元。 | 北京商报讯（记者 胡永新）10月13日，国家金融监督管理总局台州监管分局发布的行政处罚信息显示，中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司台州中心支公司 及相关责任人因利用开展保险业务为其他机构或者个人牟取不正当利益，被罚款5万元，胡滔被警告并罚款1万元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "reporting and execution in unison" policy for non-auto insurance is expected to improve underwriting performance by reducing expense ratios and enhancing overall profitability [4][5] - Non-auto insurance premiums have increased significantly, now accounting for over 51% of total premiums, but the underwriting performance remains poor, with a combined ratio (COR) consistently above 100% for major insurers [6][26] - The new regulatory measures are anticipated to lower the expense ratios for various non-auto insurance products, particularly corporate property and liability insurance, which have historically suffered from high costs [5][54] Summary by Sections Non-Auto Insurance Performance - Non-auto insurance premiums have grown rapidly, with a 14.4% annual growth rate from 2014 to 2024, surpassing the 5.2% growth rate of auto insurance [12] - Despite the growth in premiums, the average COR for major insurers in the non-auto segment has remained above 100% since 2019, indicating ongoing underwriting losses [26][35] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The new policy, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to standardize fee management and improve underwriting quality by enforcing stricter compliance with approved insurance terms and rates [4][53] - The report estimates that if the policy successfully turns loss-making segments to profitability, the COR for major insurers could decrease by 0.2 to 0.9 percentage points, leading to significant increases in underwriting profits and pre-tax profits [8][54] Company-Specific Insights - China Life Insurance's non-auto COR is projected to be the highest at 101.9% in 2024, primarily due to losses in corporate property and liability insurance [7][35] - Ping An Insurance's non-auto COR is slightly better at 99.8%, but still reflects weak profitability largely due to issues in credit guarantee insurance [41][42] - China Pacific Insurance has shown relatively better performance with a non-auto COR of 99.1%, attributed to improved risk selection and better performance in agricultural insurance [48][52]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 三季报在即，把握板块配置机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 三季报在即，近期市场热度仍维持高位，券商业绩有望延续高增，配置价值持续提升；保险方 面，整体来看印证了存款搬家、增配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定性进一 步提升，估值有望加速修复，结合中长期拐点向上的判断，整体配置性价比正逐步提高。综合 业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保险、中国人寿、香港交易所、中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、 九方智投控股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 盛晓双 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1）三季报在即，近期市场热度仍维持高位，券商业绩有望延续高增趋势，配置价值持续提升； 保险方面，整体来看印证了存款搬家、增配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定 性进一步提升，估值有望加速修复，结合中长期拐点向上的判断，我们认为整体配置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rainy weather in the Huanghuai region is significantly impacting the autumn harvest and winter wheat planting, prompting insurance companies to implement measures to facilitate claims and support farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Weather on Agriculture - The Huanghuai region has experienced multiple rounds of continuous rainfall this year, leading to higher precipitation levels compared to previous years, which poses challenges for timely harvesting and planting [3]. - The persistent rain has resulted in noticeable yield reductions in certain areas, particularly in Henan and Puyang, where insurance companies are actively engaging in claims assessments [4]. Group 2: Insurance Companies' Response - Major insurance companies like PICC, Ping An, and Taikang are opening green channels and simplifying claims processes to expedite compensation for farmers affected by the weather [1][3]. - Insurance institutions are utilizing technology such as drones and satellite remote sensing to enhance the efficiency of loss assessments and to establish scientific loss determination rules [4][8]. Group 3: Challenges in Claims Assessment - The claims assessment process faces significant challenges due to the unique nature of continuous rain, the widespread and dispersed nature of the affected areas, and the complexity of loss evaluations [7]. - The gradual and hidden damage caused by continuous rain complicates the quantification of losses, making it difficult to distinguish between natural yield reductions and weather-related damages [7]. Group 4: Technological Integration and Data Construction - Insurance companies are encouraged to strengthen technological integration by utilizing drones and satellites for loss assessments and developing weather index insurance to reduce the need for on-site evaluations [8]. - There is a call for enhanced data construction, including the development of agricultural risk models that integrate meteorological and crop yield data to create precise agricultural risk maps and loss assessment models [8].