行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 保险Ⅱ 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证监会拟放松战略投资者限制，中 长期入市再迎政策支持 看好 ——《证券期货法律适用意见第 18 号》征求意见稿点评 证监会拟放松战略投资者限制，中长期资金入市再迎政策支持。1 月 30 日，证监会发布《关 于修改〈《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》第九条、第十条、第十一条、第十三条、第四十 条、第五十七条、第六十条有关规定的适用意见——证券期货法律适用意见第 18号〉的决定 （征求意见稿）》（简称《征求意见稿》），拟放松战略投资者限制。2025 年 1 月 22 日，六部 门联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》（简称 《实施方案》），提出要允许 公募基金、商业保险资金、基本养老保险基金、企（职）业年金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a trend of rising and then narrow fluctuations in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.03%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.47% [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Multiple brokerages have released their investment portfolios for February, covering various sectors including finance, non-ferrous metals, and materials [1] - The most frequently recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance, Zijin Mining, and Wanhua Chemical, each receiving recommendations from three brokerages [4] - Notable stock performances include兆易创新, which saw a nearly 47% increase in January, and中国中免, which experienced a decline of over 5% [4] Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages suggest that the spring market may see a prolonged period of activity, with potential new trends emerging post-Chinese New Year [6] - Recommendations focus on technology, consumer sectors, and cyclical industries, with an emphasis on identifying Alpha opportunities in cyclical sectors [7] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential growth include food and beverage, real estate, and resource-related industries, with a focus on quality stocks that exhibit both Beta elasticity and Alpha value [7][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - A balanced growth strategy is recommended, focusing on technology, raw materials, and construction materials benefiting from urban renewal policies [8] - The service consumption sector, including tourism and dining, is suggested for early positioning ahead of the holiday season [9] - Attention is drawn to sectors likely to exceed performance expectations during the earnings reporting period, particularly in resource products and equipment manufacturing [10]

多家券商认为春季躁动的持续时间可能拉长，春节后市场或将迎来一波新的行情。 其中，兆易创新1月内涨幅最多，累计涨近47%，最新收盘价报314.88元；中国中免1月内跌幅最大，累计跌超5%，最新 收盘价报89.37元。 | STATE | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券 | 最新 | 总市值 | 1月月内 | 所属 | 获推荐 | 推荐 | | 简称 | 收盘价 (元) | (亿元) | 涨跌幅 | 行业 | 次数 | 券商 | | 中国太保 | 45.55 | 4093.97 | 8.69% | 美部 | 3 | 中泰证券 太平洋 | | | | | | | | 平安证券 | | 器等处,不 | 40.14 | 10509.07 | 16.45% | 材料 | 3 | 华泰证券 中国银河 | | | | | | | | 光大证券 | | 万华化学 | 87.97 | 2753.88 | 14.72% | 材料 | 3 | 中泰证券 光大证券 | | | | | | | | 太平洋 | | | | 第二回经 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced a slowdown in premium growth in Q4 2025, with life insurance premiums expected to see new policy growth in 2026 [1]. - The report highlights that the total premium income for life insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 436.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the total premium income for the industry was CNY 526.96 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In 2025, life insurance premiums grew by 9.1%, but Q4 saw a significant slowdown with a growth rate of only 0.3% compared to Q3, primarily due to a decrease in market demand following a reduction in the preset interest rate [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 215.2 billion, marking a 6.0% year-on-year increase, reversing the negative growth seen in November [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums increased by 2.0% in 2025, but Q4 experienced a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector is expected to grow significantly due to product innovation and improved pricing strategies [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. However, Q4 saw a slowdown with a growth rate of only 0.5% [5]. - The report indicates that the growth in non-auto insurance premiums was driven by significant increases in agricultural, health, accident, and liability insurance premiums in December [5]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The report suggests that both liability and asset sides of insurance companies are improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, the insurance sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expected PEV ratios ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 and PB ratios from 1.15 to 2.38 [5].

与有色金属、通信等板块受成长型基金驱动不同，非银金融此轮增持主要由价值型基金主导。分析指出，保险行 业兼具稳定分红与长期成长性，在权益市场回暖和定存资金转移的背景下，其配置价值进一步凸显。2025年四季 度，保险指数累计上涨23.42%，显著跑赢银行股和券商股。中国平安、中国太保等龙头因资产负债表优化、新业 务价值回升，成为基金超配的核心标的。机构认为，经过前期估值调整，保险板块的结构性机会大于市场整体波 动，尤其是具备渠道优势和产品创新能力的头部公司，有望持续受益于居民财富配置转型。 券商板块的加仓则呈现"强者恒强"特征。数据显示，公募基金对中信证券的持仓市值比例从0.1687%提升至 0.3132%，华泰证券从0.1579%增至0.1989%，而中小券商的增持幅度相对有限。市场人士指出，全面注册制深 化、衍生品业务扩容等政策预期，叠加权益市场活跃度提升，头部券商凭借资本实力和综合服务能力，更易获得 超额收益。不过，尽管四季度获得加仓，非银金融整体仍处于低配状态，当前仓位较2006年以来平均水平仍有较 大差距，位于30%的历史分位，后续增配空间或受市场风险偏好和行业基本面改善程度影响。 【环球网财经综合报道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - In December 2025, the growth rate of insurance premiums for both life and property insurance slowed down, but there is optimism for new business growth in life insurance by 2026 [1]. - The total premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 reached CNY 46,491 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the fourth quarter saw a significant slowdown in growth to just 0.3% [5]. - The report anticipates a strong performance for listed insurance companies in the 2026 New Year, driven by the ongoing trend of "deposit migration" and the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [5]. - Health insurance premiums grew by 2% in 2025, but the fourth quarter saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [5]. - Property insurance premiums reached CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped to 0.5% [5]. - The report highlights that the liability side and asset side of insurance companies are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5]. Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - The original premium income for personal insurance companies in 2025 was CNY 46,491 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a premium income of CNY 5,191 billion, with a growth rate of only 0.3%, a decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 saw a monthly premium income of CNY 2,152 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [5]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in 2025 increased by 2.0%, but the fourth quarter experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [5]. - The report notes that the health insurance market has significant growth potential due to product innovation and scientific pricing [5]. Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums totaled CNY 17,570 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5]. - The fourth quarter saw a growth rate of only 0.5%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - December 2025 recorded a monthly premium income of CNY 1,413 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [5]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market demand remains strong, and the optimization of liability costs will alleviate pressure from interest rate spreads [5]. - The valuation of insurance stocks is currently at historical lows, with the insurance sector's estimated valuation for January 30, 2026, ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 times PEV and 1.15 to 2.38 times PB [5].

Core Viewpoint - Public funds are increasing their allocation to non-bank financials, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards these sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Trends - In Q4 2025, public funds raised their non-bank financial positions by 1 percentage point, making it the fourth largest sector increase after metals, communications, and basic chemicals [2][3]. - Notable stocks such as China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance received significant over-allocations from funds [3]. - The insurance index saw a substantial increase of 23.42% in Q4 of the previous year, outperforming traditional dividend-paying bank stocks [3]. Group 2: Brokerage Performance Expectations - Several listed brokerages have announced expected net profit increases for 2025, with many projecting year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [4]. - Notable forecasts include CITIC Securities expecting a net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan, and Dongwu Securities projecting a net profit of 3.431 billion to 3.668 billion yuan, both showing significant growth [4]. - Despite the increase in fund allocations, non-bank financials remain underweight compared to historical averages, currently around 30% [4]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in the Market - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has been increasing, suggesting a continuation of favorable market conditions for brokerage stocks [5]. - Analysts recommend focusing on brokerages with strong retail business shares and those that contribute significantly to profits, as individual stock opportunities may outweigh overall market trends [5]. - The insurance sector is benefiting from the performance of equity markets and a shift in deposit funds, with a stable interest rate environment enhancing its investment appeal [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of non-bank financial holdings by public funds, with a significant increase in insurance allocations. The current holdings in the non-bank financial sector remain underweight compared to the market [4][5]. - Public funds' holdings in the non-bank financial sector rose by 0.96 percentage points to 1.97% in Q4 2025, with insurance seeing the most notable increase [5][10]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector is expected to achieve good growth in 2026, driven by improved net premium income and reduced asset allocation pressure due to rising long-term bond yields [7][8]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - In Q4 2025, the total holding of non-bank financials by public funds reached 370.64 billion, with an allocation of 1.97%, up from 1.00% in Q3 2025 [9][10]. - The breakdown of holdings shows insurance at 1.32%, securities at 0.58%, and diversified finance at 0.06%, with significant increases in insurance holdings [5][9]. Individual Stocks - The top five A-share stocks held by public funds in the non-bank financial sector are China Ping An (158.14 billion), China Pacific Insurance (47.88 billion), CITIC Securities (37.26 billion), Huatai Securities (25.21 billion), and New China Life Insurance (20.37 billion) [6][13]. - The report notes that the largest increases in holdings were also seen in these stocks, particularly China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [6][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends China Life Insurance, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance for their strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [7][8]. - For the brokerage sector, it suggests focusing on CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Industrial Securities due to their growth prospects and market positioning [8].

保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

Group 1: Key Insights - The report highlights multiple positive catalysts for the electronics sector, particularly for Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463), including the upcoming financial disclosures from overseas cloud vendors and domestic supply chain performance forecasts, which will validate the sustainability of computing power demand and industry prosperity [4] - The defense and military industry, represented by Guoke Military Industry (688543), is transitioning from conventional ammunition to intelligent and information-based ammunition, positioning the company to benefit from high industry demand and military trade orders, which are expected to drive significant growth [4] - In the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, Huan Huang Pharmaceutical (0013.HK) is advancing its ATTC platform with candidates entering clinical trials, including HMPL-A251, which is a first-in-class drug, and is also expanding the indications for existing drugs, indicating strong future growth potential [5] Group 2: Company-Specific Analysis - Wan Hua Chemical (600309) is reinforcing its position as a global leader in polyurethane, with significant market shares in MDI and TDI, and is expected to enhance profitability through strategic partnerships and cost advantages in its petrochemical segment [6] - Su Kan Agricultural Development (601952) anticipates a slight decline in 2025 profits due to falling grain prices, but expects a recovery driven by rising grain prices and increased farmland area through land transfer initiatives [7] - Yingwei Technology (002837) is poised for substantial growth in the server liquid cooling market, with expectations of doubling industry growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by orders from major overseas clients [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - China Pacific Insurance (601601) demonstrated strong resilience with a 11% year-on-year increase in net profit to 27.9 billion yuan, driven by robust growth in new business value in its life insurance segment [8] - Jin Jiang Shipping (601083) reported a 64% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, indicating strong performance relative to peers, with expectations for continued growth [8] - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) is benefiting from increased rental income and new merchant additions, with projections for profit doubling in 2026 due to enhanced service offerings and improved gross margins [8]