Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of housing loans in major banks amid declining housing prices, highlighting the significant loan balances and the rising non-performing loan rates in the context of a cooling real estate market [2][14]. Group 1: Housing Loan Balances - The "Big Six" banks have substantial personal housing loan balances, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) each exceeding 6 trillion yuan, while Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) is close to 5 trillion yuan, and Bank of China (BOC) is just over 4 trillion yuan [3][4]. - As of June 2025, the personal housing loan balances for the "Big Four" banks (ICBC, CCB, ABC, and BOC) have decreased compared to the end of 2024, with ABC seeing a reduction of 49.16 billion yuan and CCB a decrease of 42.36 billion yuan [12][13]. Group 2: Loan Quality and Non-Performing Rates - The asset quality of housing loans remains strong, with non-performing loan (NPL) rates for personal housing loans significantly lower than overall loan NPL rates. For instance, ICBC's personal housing loan NPL rate was only 0.86% as of June 2025, compared to an overall rate of 1.33% [6][7]. - However, there is a noted increase in the NPL rates for personal housing loans across the "Big Six" banks from the end of 2024 to June 2025, indicating a trend of rising asset quality pressure [6][14]. Group 3: Market Trends and Implications - The decline in housing loan balances among the "Big Four" banks reflects the end of the booming real estate market, suggesting a shift in lending dynamics as housing prices remain low [12][14]. - Despite personal housing loans being a relatively safer loan category, the increasing NPL rates signal potential challenges ahead for banks as the real estate market continues to struggle [14].

Core Viewpoint - The six major state-owned banks in China have demonstrated a stable performance in the first half of the year, actively supporting the real estate sector while effectively controlling risks [1][4]. Group 1: Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism - The six major state-owned banks have continued to promote the implementation of the real estate financing coordination mechanism, injecting over one trillion yuan into "white list" projects to support housing delivery and stabilize the market [1][2]. - Agricultural Bank of China approved over 1,400 "white list" projects with a total approval amount exceeding 700 billion yuan and loan disbursements surpassing 530 billion yuan by the end of June [2]. Group 2: Risk Management in Real Estate - As of June, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios in the real estate sector for several banks, including Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Bank of Communications, have decreased compared to the end of 2024, with declines of 0.05, 0.05, 0.32, and 0.53 percentage points respectively [4]. - Agricultural Bank emphasized the stability of its real estate business risks and its support for the "three major projects" while enhancing risk management [4]. - China Bank's vice president indicated that with aligned policies on both supply and demand, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize [4]. Group 3: New Changes in the Housing Market - The housing market has seen structural changes, with an increasing proportion of second-hand housing transactions, creating new business opportunities [6]. - Construction Bank reported a more than 20% increase in second-hand housing loan disbursements compared to the previous year, with a total loan balance reaching 1.89 trillion yuan [6]. - Agricultural Bank plans to actively support urban renewal projects and affordable housing initiatives in line with local city renewal actions [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Construction Bank aims to enhance its housing financial services and expects its mortgage business performance to surpass last year's results [7]. - Bank of Communications plans to strengthen research on market trends and financing planning for real estate projects under the new development model [7].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term profit distribution plans of listed banks in A-shares for 2025 show a significant increase in total dividends, reaching 237.54 billion yuan, with state-owned banks being the primary contributors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution Overview - Among 42 listed banks, 17 have announced their mid-term dividend plans for 2025, with a total dividend amount of 237.54 billion yuan [2][3]. - The six major state-owned banks contributed 204.66 billion yuan, accounting for 86% of the total dividends announced by the 17 banks [3][4]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with a dividend of 50.40 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China with 48.61 billion yuan and 41.82 billion yuan respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Dividend Decisions - The ability of state-owned banks to distribute dividends is supported by their strong capital strength, stable profitability, and ample cash flow, allowing them to maintain high dividend payouts [4][9]. - The decision to distribute dividends is influenced by a balance of capital adequacy, business expansion needs, regulatory requirements, and shareholder return expectations [4][9][10]. - Some banks, such as Zhengzhou Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank, have explicitly stated they will not distribute dividends for the first half of 2025, citing performance pressures and capital replenishment needs [8][9]. Group 3: Trends in Dividend Distribution - The trend of increasing mid-term and quarterly dividends among listed banks has been noted since the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles" policy, which encourages multiple dividend distributions within a year [2][4]. - Several joint-stock banks, including CITIC Bank and Minsheng Bank, have announced their mid-term dividend plans, with CITIC Bank aiming for a dividend payout ratio of 30.7% [4][6]. - The distribution landscape shows a clear differentiation, with some banks actively pursuing dividends while others pause due to various operational challenges [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term profit distribution plans of listed banks in A-shares for 2025 are gradually being revealed, with a total mid-term dividend amount reaching 237.54 billion yuan, indicating a clear differentiation in the dividend distribution landscape among banks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution Overview - Among 42 listed banks, 17 have announced their mid-term dividend plans for 2025, with state-owned banks leading the distribution [3][4]. - The six major state-owned banks have a combined dividend amount of 204.66 billion yuan, accounting for 86% of the total mid-term dividends announced by the 17 banks [3][4]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with a dividend of 50.40 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China with 48.61 billion yuan and 41.82 billion yuan respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Dividend Decisions - The ability of state-owned banks to distribute dividends is supported by their strong capital strength, stable profitability, and ample cash flow, allowing them to actively pursue dividend plans [4][9]. - The dividend decisions of banks are influenced by a combination of capital adequacy ratios, business expansion needs, regulatory requirements, and shareholder return expectations [1][8]. - Some banks, such as China Merchants Bank and Nanjing Bank, are in the process of finalizing their mid-term dividend plans, while others like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Zhengzhou Bank have explicitly stated they will not distribute dividends for the first half of 2025 [6][7]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Future Outlook - The new "National Nine Articles" policy encourages listed companies to increase dividend distributions, leading to a noticeable rise in mid-term and quarterly dividends among listed banks [3][4]. - Smaller banks are showing a clear divide in their dividend policies, with some opting not to distribute dividends due to performance pressures and urgent capital replenishment needs [7][8]. - The balance between short-term investor returns and long-term operational stability is crucial for banks when deciding on dividend distributions, with a focus on maintaining adequate capital for future growth [9].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in deposit rates, coupled with the concentration of fixed deposits maturing, is expected to significantly improve the cost of liabilities for banks [1][8]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Recent reports indicate a trend of residents moving deposits from banks to other financial products such as funds and wealth management products [2][3]. - As of mid-2025, the total personal deposit balance of 13 major commercial banks reached 112.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9 trillion yuan year-on-year [4][5]. - The average cost of deposits for these banks in the first half of 2025 was 1.61%, a decrease of 34 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Group 2: Wealth Management Business Growth - The shift of deposits to wealth management products has led to significant growth in banks' wealth management income, with Agricultural Bank's wealth management income increasing by 62.3% [6]. - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June, with an estimated increase of about 2 trillion yuan by the end of July [6]. Group 3: Interest Margin and Cost of Liabilities - Despite the reduction in deposit costs, banks are still facing pressure on net interest margins, which have decreased to 1.42% as of the second quarter of 2025 [15][16]. - The average net interest margin for the 13 banks was 1.5%, down from 1.62% year-on-year [15]. - The decline in net interest margins is attributed to factors such as the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and adjustments in existing mortgage rates [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the concentration of maturing fixed deposits will lead to a significant reduction in the cost of liabilities for banks in the coming years, with expected decreases of 17 to 24 basis points across different types of banks [11]. - The trend of increasing fixed deposits is expected to continue, with the proportion of fixed deposits among total deposits rising to approximately 59.7% in the first half of 2025 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major state-owned banks in China has shown signs of improvement in the first half of the year, with a notable increase in investment income and non-interest income, despite ongoing pressure on net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The six major banks reported a total operating income of 1.83 trillion yuan, a slight increase from approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 682.52 billion yuan, compared to about 683.39 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating mixed results with three banks showing positive growth and three negative [1][2]. - The operating income of all six banks experienced year-on-year growth, with China Bank leading at 3.76%, followed by Construction Bank at 2.15% and Industrial and Commercial Bank at 1.57% [2][3]. Group 2: Interest Income and Net Interest Margin - The net interest income for the six banks totaled 1.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline of approximately 2% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The decline in interest income is primarily attributed to a decrease in loan yields, which outweighed the positive impact of lower deposit interest rates [4]. - The net interest margin continued to decline, with five banks experiencing a drop of over 10 basis points compared to the previous year, although the rate of decline has shown signs of slowing [12][13]. Group 3: Provisioning and Impairment Losses - The total provision for impairment losses across the six banks was approximately 422.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 22 billion yuan year-on-year [5][6]. - Notably, Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank increased their provisioning efforts significantly, with year-on-year increases of 22.85% and 34.62%, respectively [5][7]. Group 4: Investment Income and Non-Interest Income - Investment income has become a key support factor for bank performance, with significant growth in bond investment income, although this was partially offset by declining bond market yields [8][10]. - Non-interest income, particularly from investment gains, saw substantial increases, with some banks reporting growth rates exceeding 50% [9][10]. - The recovery in fee and commission income was also notable, with four banks reporting positive year-on-year growth, particularly Postal Savings Bank and Agricultural Bank, which both exceeded 10% [11]. Group 5: Outlook on Net Interest Margin - Management from various banks expressed optimism regarding the stabilization of net interest margins in the second half of the year, despite ongoing downward pressures from market conditions [12][14]. - Factors such as the adjustment of loan pricing and the gradual impact of deposit rate reductions are expected to contribute to a narrowing of the decline in net interest margins [15].

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) is focusing on maintaining a balanced approach to credit issuance while enhancing its profitability and risk management strategies, alongside a commitment to stable dividend policies and innovative financial services [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, PSBC's deposits exceeded 16 trillion yuan, reaching 16.11 trillion yuan, a growth of 5.37%, with corporate deposits increasing by 229.62 billion yuan, or 13.86% [3]. - The bank's net interest margin stood at 1.70%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [3]. - PSBC's credit growth rate was 10.1%, outperforming the industry average of 7.1%, attributed to enhanced service capabilities and targeted marketing strategies [3]. Group 2: Risk Management and Credit Strategy - The bank emphasizes a balanced approach to credit issuance, focusing on both quantity and quality, while addressing challenges in retail loans through improved risk control standards [4]. - PSBC has halted high-interest auto loan products, prioritizing risk-adjusted returns on capital (RAROC) for various loan types [4]. - The bank is leveraging its strengths in county markets to support local industries and agricultural enterprises [3]. Group 3: Dividend Policy - PSBC has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% since 2018, with total dividends exceeding 170 billion yuan since its H-share listing [5]. - For the current year, the bank plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 14.772 billion yuan (including tax), with a commitment to a sustainable dividend policy [5]. Group 4: Consumer Loan Services - The introduction of a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans is expected to positively impact the bank's consumer loan business, reducing credit costs for residents [6]. - PSBC is enhancing its operational capabilities to provide rapid loan approvals, aiming to meet real housing loan demands and expand its consumer loan offerings [7]. - The bank plans to focus on high-potential urban areas and quality channels for housing loans while improving customer acquisition for non-housing consumer loans [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 42 A-share listed banks reported a total operating income exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.8% [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The six major state-owned banks collectively achieved an operating income of 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with all banks reporting positive year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the six major banks totaled 6825.24 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.13% compared to the previous year [4][6]. - Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Transportation Bank reported both revenue and net profit growth [3]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Breakdown - China Bank led in revenue growth with 3.29 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, driven by a significant rise of 26.43% in non-interest income [5]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank reported an operating income of 4.09 trillion yuan, a growth of 1.8%, marking its best performance in three years [6]. - The asset scale of the six major banks reached approximately 214 trillion yuan, a growth of about 7% from the previous year [6]. Group 3: Dividend Distribution - The six major state-owned banks announced a total cash dividend of 2046.57 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with Industrial and Commercial Bank proposing the largest dividend of approximately 503.96 billion yuan [7]. Group 4: Employee Compensation - The average salary for bank employees in the first half of 2025 was 18.1 million yuan, with a monthly average of 3.02 million yuan, reflecting an increase of about 1300 yuan from the previous year [9]. - Among the major banks, China Bank had an average monthly salary of 2.82 million yuan, while Industrial and Commercial Bank and Construction Bank reported 2.63 million yuan and 2.62 million yuan, respectively [11][12]. - The Agricultural Bank emphasized enhancing talent development in county-level branches and adjusting salary resources to support grassroots employees [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 7.03 CNY for the next six months [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the bank's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 1.50% year-on-year, with a pre-provision profit growth of 14.62% and a net profit growth of 0.85%. The growth was supported by cost reduction and expansion of interest-earning assets, although tax increases and narrowing net interest margins posed challenges [2][14]. - The bank's total assets grew by 10.83% year-on-year, with a significant increase in loans, particularly in corporate lending, which grew by 17.74% year-on-year. Retail lending showed resilience, primarily driven by small personal loans [3][4][12]. - The bank's net non-interest income increased by 23.83% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in fees and commissions, as well as investment income [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the bank's total assets increased by 10.83% year-on-year, with a net increase of 501.1 billion CNY in total assets [2]. - The bank's net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.70%, showing a decline of 21 basis points year-on-year, but remained competitive within the industry [12]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was 0.92% at the end of the first half of 2025, indicating stable asset quality [14]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans increased by 17.74% year-on-year, with significant contributions from general corporate loans and infrastructure projects [3]. - Retail loans grew by 3.69% year-on-year, with a focus on rural revitalization and support for small businesses [3][4]. - Total liabilities grew by 10.66% year-on-year, with deposits increasing by 8.37% [4]. Cost and Income Structure - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 52.76%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting better operational efficiency [13]. - The bank's interest-earning asset yield was 2.95%, with a slight decline, but showed resilience due to effective credit management [12]. Capital and Future Outlook - The bank successfully completed a 130 billion CNY capital increase, alleviating capital constraints and allowing for further asset expansion [13]. - The report forecasts a revenue growth of 1.43% and a net profit growth of 2.65% for 2025, supported by strategic lending and cost management initiatives [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank, with current prices at 6.04 CNY and 5.41 HKD respectively [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in non-interest income contribution, with total revenue and net profit growth observed in the first half of 2025. Total revenue reached 179.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 49.2 billion CNY, up 0.9% year-on-year [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth improved sequentially, with non-interest income's share rising to 22.5%. The year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders were 1.5%, 14.6%, and 0.9% respectively, showing improvements from the first quarter [4]. - Interest income decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income grew by 19.1%, indicating a shift towards more diversified income sources [4][9]. Loan and Asset Management - As of the end of Q2, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 10.7% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable increase in loan issuance [5]. - The loan structure showed significant growth in corporate loans, particularly in sectors like water conservancy and public facilities, which accounted for 19.1% of the total increase [6]. Liability and Deposit Management - The growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities increased to 10.6%, with total deposits growing by 8.4% year-on-year. The bank has optimized its deposit management strategy to enhance low-cost funding [7]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin slightly narrowed to 1.7%, with asset yields declining due to lower interest rates on new loans and existing loan repricing [8]. - The bank's proactive cost management strategies have led to a reduction in funding costs, benefiting from lower deposit rates [8]. Non-Interest Income Growth - Non-interest income saw a substantial increase of 19.1% year-on-year, driven by growth in fees and commissions as well as other non-interest income sources [9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained low at 0.92%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter. The bank's asset quality indicators, including the NPL generation rate, showed stability [10][29]. Capital Adequacy - The bank successfully completed a 130 billion CNY A-share placement, enhancing its capital base. As of Q2, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 10.52% [11]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 at 0.74, 0.75, and 0.78 CNY, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios for A-shares at 0.79, 0.74, and 0.70 [12][33].