Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price of HKD 100 for H-shares and CNY 106 for A-shares, anticipating strong sales in Hainan's duty-free market to act as a short-term catalyst [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Duty Free Group announced the acquisition of DFS's retail business in Greater China for up to USD 395 million, which includes nine travel retail stores in Hong Kong and Macau along with intangible assets [1] - The company plans to issue up to approximately 11.9675 million new H-shares at HKD 77 per share to LVMH's Delphine SAS and the Miller family, representing about 0.57% of the total share capital, aiming to raise no more than HKD 924 million [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is viewed as strategically significant for China Duty Free Group, helping to solidify its market leadership in Greater China, enhance retail capabilities, and promote domestic brands internationally [1] - The introduction of LVMH as a shareholder and strategic partner is expected to strengthen China Duty Free Group's advantages in luxury goods supply [1] Group 3: Financial Impact - The financial impact of the acquisition on China Duty Free Group is anticipated to be limited in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (H-shares: 01880) with a target price of HKD 100 and for A-shares (601888.SH) with a target price of RMB 106, anticipating strong sales in Hainan's duty-free market to act as a short-term catalyst [1] Group 1 - China Duty Free Group announced the acquisition of DFS's retail business in Greater China for up to USD 395 million, which includes nine travel retail stores in Hong Kong and Macau along with intangible assets [1] - The company plans to issue up to approximately 11.9675 million new H-shares at HKD 77 per share to LVMH's Delphine SAS and the Miller family, representing about 0.57% of the total share capital, aiming to raise no more than HKD 924 million [1] - Citigroup views this acquisition as strategically significant for China Duty Free Group, helping to solidify its market leadership in Greater China, enhance retail capabilities, and promote domestic brands internationally, while expecting limited short-term financial impact [1] Group 2 - The introduction of LVMH as a shareholder and strategic partner is expected to strengthen China Duty Free Group's advantages in luxury goods supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group's acquisition of DFS's Greater China business, in partnership with LVMH, aims to deepen international business layout and enhance collaboration between the two companies [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The share issuance binds the company with the LV Group at the equity level, showcasing the luxury brand's recognition of the company's channel capabilities [1] - This partnership is expected to strengthen the company's supply chain and brand advantages, leading to mutual benefits [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, the demand for duty-free sales post-border closure is anticipated to remain high, supported by multiple favorable policies [1] - The company is progressively improving its channel layout and is viewed positively as a leading player in the duty-free industry, poised for performance growth amid an upward trend in industry prosperity [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Hainan's offshore duty-free sales have significantly increased, reflecting strong consumer demand and growth potential in the sector [1] Sales Performance - From December 18 to January 17, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales rose by 47% year-on-year to 4.86 billion yuan [1] - The number of duty-free shoppers increased by 30.2%, while the average spending per shopper grew by 12.7% [1] Regional Breakdown - Sanya's offshore duty-free sales surged by 47% to approximately 3.36 billion yuan, accounting for about 69% of Hainan's total sales [1] - Haikou's offshore duty-free sales grew by 46% year-on-year to 1.5 billion yuan [1] Future Outlook - UBS forecasts that Hainan's offshore duty-free sales will increase by over 25% year-on-year this year [1] - The company favors China Duty Free Group's A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, maintaining a "buy" rating for both [1]

Summary of China Duty Free Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Duty Free Group (中国中免) - **Industry**: Duty-Free Retail Key Points Financial Performance and Revenue Sources - **Gross Margin Potential**: Significant potential for gross margin improvement due to factors such as economies of scale, the proportion of high-margin products (gold, mobile phones), the ratio of duty-free channels, RMB exchange rate, and discount levels. Recent reductions in discounts have led to a 2-3 percentage point recovery in gross margins for duty-free products [2][4] - **Revenue Breakdown**: In 2024, the revenue sources are as follows: - Duty-Free Sales from Hainan: 41% (largest source, but net profit contribution has declined due to sales drop and high fixed costs) - Taxable Sales: 30% (low gross margin of approximately 13%, limited contribution to net profit) - Port Duty-Free Sales: 28% (important profit source despite high rental costs) [6][9] Profitability Insights - **Net Profit Contribution**: The net profit contribution from Hainan duty-free sales has decreased due to sales decline and high fixed costs. Historical data shows potential for recovery in profitability [6][9] - **Port Duty-Free Sales**: Shanghai Duty-Free (51% owned by China Duty Free) is projected to generate revenue of 16 billion RMB in 2024, with taxable sales contributing 10 billion and airport sales 6 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of about 5% [6][9] Future Growth Projections - **2024-2026 Revenue Forecast**: - 2024 revenue is expected to be around 10 billion RMB, with a slight decrease in 2025. By 2026, revenue may decline due to business transfers, but the impact on overall performance is expected to be limited due to low profit margins from taxable sales [9][10] - **New Projects**: The Haikou International Duty-Free City is expected to reach 5.6 billion RMB in revenue in 2024 and is in a growth phase, anticipated to become a key driver of performance in 2025-2026 [7][9] Cost Management and Currency Impact - **Cost Reduction Potential**: Reducing labor and operational costs by 1% could increase net profit by several hundred million RMB. Effective cost management is crucial for improving profitability [3][15] - **Currency Appreciation**: A 1% appreciation of the RMB is expected to increase net profit by 110 million RMB. If the RMB appreciates by 2% in 2026, it could add 200 million RMB to profits [3][16] Product Category Analysis - **High-Margin Products**: The increase in the proportion of high-margin products like gold and mobile phones is expected to positively impact gross margins. For instance, a significant increase in gold jewelry sales could enhance net profit by 400 million RMB [14] - **Low-Margin Products**: Mobile phone sales, despite high growth rates, have a limited impact on overall performance due to their lower margins [14] Strategic Acquisitions - **M&A Activities**: The company is optimizing procurement resources through acquisitions, such as the DFS projects in Hong Kong and Macau, which are expected to enhance overall performance elasticity [5] Regional Performance - **Hainan Subsidiaries**: The performance of subsidiaries in Hainan, including Sanya International Duty-Free City and Haikou International Duty-Free City, indicates significant growth potential for the region [8] Operational Challenges - **Sales Decline**: The Shanghai Duty-Free operations are facing revenue shrinkage due to supply chain changes, with Hainan taxable sales expected to grow only by 1-2 billion RMB annually [11] Internal Supply Chain - **Role of CDF International**: CDF International acts as an internal supplier, responsible for procurement and internal pricing, with a commission rate of approximately 5% [12] Conclusion China Duty Free Group is positioned for potential growth through strategic management of its revenue sources, cost control, and product mix. The company faces challenges from sales declines in certain areas but has opportunities for recovery and growth through new projects and acquisitions.

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hainan duty-free market has experienced significant fluctuations in sales, with a doubling of sales from 2019 to 2021, followed by a sharp decline in 2022 due to the pandemic. Sales showed some recovery in 2023 but did not meet expectations. A slight decrease in sales is anticipated in 2024 as high-end consumers shift to overseas spending after the reopening of international flights. The year 2025 is expected to bring a dynamic balance with new policies expanding eligible demographics and product categories, while 2026 may see a decrease in taxable sales proportion, stabilizing or slightly increasing overall sales [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - The market share of duty-free products in Hainan is approximately 85%-90%, with Hainan Duty-Free Group (HDFG) projected to achieve sales of around 5 billion yuan in 2025, over 80% of which will come from taxable business [1][6]. - The expected tourist flow in 2026 is around 35 million, with high-priced items performing well and conversion rates improving, indicating a positive outlook for overall sales [1][7]. - Price advantages in the Hainan duty-free market vary by time and SKU, with significant discounts on luxury items such as cosmetics (10-15%), gold (10-20%), and mobile phones (200-500 yuan cheaper than mainland prices) [1][8][9]. Historical and Current Policy Context - The Hainan duty-free policy has evolved since its inception, with the tax-free allowance increasing from 5,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan by 2020. The 2025 policy further expands eligible demographics and product categories, including domestic goods [2]. Future Policy Optimization Directions - Future optimizations for the Hainan duty-free policy could include expanding product categories (e.g., liquor, large drones), relaxing purchase limits on cosmetics, and broadening the list of items available for island residents [5]. Market Competition Landscape - The competitive landscape in Hainan remains stable, with HDFG holding a market share of approximately 85%-90%. The attractiveness of Hainan continues to draw increasing tourist traffic [6]. Sales Expectations for 2026 - Sales expectations for 2026 are optimistic, driven by increased tourist numbers, high-value product performance, and improved conversion rates due to recovering consumer spending power and promotional effects [7]. Economic Growth Drivers in Hainan - Hainan's economic growth is driven by quantifiable factors contributing approximately 10% growth, alongside unquantifiable factors such as prolonged bull markets, increased tourism due to travel restrictions in Japan, and upcoming events like concerts and international competitions. The projected income growth for 2026 is estimated at 15%-20% [3][12]. Impact of Sales Growth on Overall Fee Rates - A 10%-25% increase in sales in Hainan is expected to compress overall fee rates by 0.x to 1.x percentage points, primarily affecting fixed cost amortization. However, channel structure, product mix, exchange rates, and scale effects have a more significant impact [3][13]. Factors Influencing Profit Margins - Profit margins in Hainan are influenced by various factors, including scale, product mix, channel structure, exchange rates, and discount levels, which can vary significantly, necessitating detailed analysis of all variables [3][14].

格隆汇1月21日｜花旗发表研究报告指，中国中免公布以不多于3.95亿美元收购DFS大中华区零售业 务，包括港澳9间旅游零售店铺及无形资产。同时，公司将按每股77港元，向LVMH旗下Delphine SAS 和DFS联合创办人Miller家族旗下Shoppers，配发最多约1196.75万股新H股，约占总股本0.57%，净筹不 超过9.24亿港元。 该行认为此举对中国中免具战略意义，有助进一步巩固其在大中华区的市场领导地 位、提升零售能力，并推动国潮品牌走向国际，同时对短期财务影响有限。该行预期，引入LVMH作为 股东及战略合作伙伴，亦可加强中国中免在奢侈品供应方面的优势。该行维持中国中免"买入"评级，予 其H股目标价100港元，A股目标价106元，料海南离岛免税销售强劲将成为短期催化剂。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses China Duty Free Group (CDFG) and its acquisition of DFS's retail business in Greater China, along with the duty-free retail industry in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Acquisition Announcement**: CDFG announced the acquisition of DFS's retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million in cash, along with a concurrent issuance of H-shares to the transaction counterparties. This acquisition is expected to enhance CDFG's market presence in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, achieving comprehensive coverage in both domestic and regional markets [1][1]. 2. **Strategic Partnership with LVMH**: The acquisition includes a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, which will establish a long-term partnership. This collaboration is anticipated to enhance CDFG's supply capabilities for high-end products and improve procurement bargaining power [1][1]. 3. **Market Penetration**: CDFG aims to leverage its channel advantages to further penetrate the Greater China tourism retail market, capitalizing on the existing assets of DFS [1][1]. 4. **Positive Data Trends**: Recent data from December indicates a positive trend in duty-free shopping in Hainan, with total shopping amounts reaching 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. The number of visitors was 450,000, down 3.4%, while the average spending per person increased by 21% to 7,623 yuan [2][2]. 5. **Impact of RMB Appreciation**: The discussion highlighted the favorable transmission logic of RMB appreciation and the recovery of high-end consumption in the duty-free sector. The appreciation is expected to enhance gross margins due to lower operating costs and stimulate luxury consumption, similar to trends observed during previous appreciation cycles [2][2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The call referenced previous discussions on the impact of currency fluctuations on luxury goods consumption, particularly focusing on the relationship between the Japanese yen's depreciation and changes in consumer behavior [2][2]. - The strategic implications of the partnership with LVMH may also extend beyond immediate financial benefits, potentially influencing brand positioning and market strategy in the luxury segment [1][1].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses **China Duty Free Group (CDFG)** and its strategic partnership with **LVMH** in the luxury goods sector [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments - **Acquisition of DFS Business**: CDFG plans to acquire related equity and assets of DFS's Greater China travel retail business for up to **$395 million**. This acquisition includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and assets from two core stores in Hong Kong, along with brand ownership, membership systems, and intellectual property [2][2]. - **Global Competitive Positioning**: The transaction is expected to significantly enhance CDFG's premium pricing ability and international influence in the luxury goods market, positioning the company as a globally competitive travel retail service provider [1][2]. - **Capital Raising through Share Issuance**: CDFG intends to issue H-shares to LVMH's subsidiary Delphine SAS and the Miller family trust, with a total subscription price of up to **HKD 924 million** (approximately **$118 million**). The share price is set at **HKD 77.21** per share [3][3]. - **Use of Proceeds**: The net proceeds from the share issuance will be used to supplement the company's capital and support its domestic and international business development [3][3]. - **Long-term Value Recognition**: The commitment from the investors to a one-year lock-up period post-subscription indicates a recognition of CDFG's long-term value by global luxury goods giants [3][3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Strategic Cooperation with LVMH**: CDFG has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience. This collaboration aims to leverage DFS's market presence in Hong Kong and Macau to enhance CDFG's competitiveness in the global travel retail market [3][3].

1月20日，中国中免（601888.SH/1880.HK）早间发布公告，宣布公司于19日与DFS达成重大战略合作， 将以不超过3.95亿美元收购DFS港澳地区零售门店及其大中华区的无形资产（包括DFS旗下一系列的品 牌与IP于大中华区的独家使用权），并获LVMH集团及DFS创始人Miller家族认购其在香港新发行的H股 股份。 01 解析交易背后的三重核心价值 消息公布后，早间开盘中国中免应声大涨，其H股股一度冲高涨超11%，A股一度涨超6%。 资本市场投出信心票的背后，正是看到了此次公告显示出的中国中免的一次战略级"破圈"，这将标志着 中国中免正从依托政策红利的国内免税巨头，向具备全球资源整合能力的奢侈品消费平台跃迁。 从交易来看，这背后是一场关乎资产、能力与信用的深度整合。 首先，可以看到的是交易带来的最直观价值，在于中国中免门店网络的战略性补强与枢纽化升级。 此次收购将DFS位于香港及澳门核心地段的旅游零售店铺纳入囊中，这些门店不仅是亚洲顶级的奢侈品 消费地标，更因其成熟的运营体系和高净值客群，成为连接区域消费流量的关键节点。 这意味着中免在粤港澳大湾区的线下高端零售布局获得了即时且高质量的网络延伸，其 ...