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中国中免:口岸渠道快速修复,关注市内渠道增量
中银证券· 2024-11-05 07:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.756 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.52%, and a net profit of 636 million RMB, down 52.53% year-on-year [3] - The decline in offshore duty-free sales is attributed to a decrease in domestic island tourism and increased competition from Southeast Asia [3] - The recovery of international travelers has positively impacted sales at airport duty-free stores, with significant revenue growth reported at major airports [3] - The implementation of new policies for city duty-free stores is expected to contribute to revenue growth, with plans for new store openings and renovations [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 43.021 billion RMB, a decrease of 15.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.919 billion RMB, down 24.72% year-on-year [3][4] - Q3 2024 results were in line with expectations, with a revenue of 11.756 billion RMB and a net profit of 636 million RMB [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced in the offshore duty-free segment due to declining tourism and increased competition [3] - Conversely, the airport duty-free sales have shown a strong recovery, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free travel and increased international flights [3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the new city duty-free policies, effective from October 1, 2024, will provide growth opportunities, with ongoing projects to expand the company's presence in northern markets [3] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 2.55, 3.25, and 3.76 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27.5, 21.6, and 18.7 [4][5]
青岛免税业将添“巨无霸”!中国中免将在这里打造免税城
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2024-11-02 23:35
证券时报e公司讯,青岛免税业态将迎"巨无霸"项目。 11月1日下午,青岛胶东临空经济示范区管委会与中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司(简称:中国中免) 举行战略合作协议签约仪式,双方就在青岛临空经济区建设免税城项目达成意向。 据了解,此次签约的免税城项目是上合自贸空港的核心项目、上海合作组织旅游和文化之都的龙头项 目、上合示范区综合改革的重点支撑项目。 将依托上合示范区、中国中免的核心优势,打造集免税商业、高端酒店、文旅等多业态于一体的旅游零 售综合体,为完善推进高质量共建"一带一路"机制贡献力量。 ...
中国中免:2024年三季报点评:业绩符合预告值,离岛免税销售继续承压
Soochow Securities· 2024-11-01 16:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance aligns with forecast values, with Q3 revenue at 11.756 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 636 million yuan, down 53% year-on-year [2] - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales continue to face pressure, with Q3 sales amounting to 5.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 36% year-on-year [2] - The implementation of the city duty-free store policy is expected to benefit the company, as it is positioned to take advantage of market expansion driven by new city stores [3] - The company's market position remains solid, and it is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of outbound tourism and the city duty-free store policy [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 43.021 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.919 billion yuan, down 25% year-on-year [1] - Q3 gross margin was 32.0%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.4%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with net profits projected at 5.088 billion yuan, 6.021 billion yuan, and 6.973 billion yuan respectively [3] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 67.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 140.48 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) based on the latest diluted earnings per share is projected to be 27.61 for 2024, 23.33 for 2025, and 20.15 for 2026 [3][10]
中国中免:经营承压,关注市内店落地进展
中国银河· 2024-11-01 13:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion RMB, down 25% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to poor performance in the Hainan market, with Q3 revenue dropping to 11.76 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year decrease, which was worse than expected [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 32.57%, a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points, but Q3 gross margin fell to 32.0%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year due to weak demand [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and expanding overseas markets, having introduced 165 brands in the first three quarters, with over 40% being domestic brands [2]. - The recent policy allowing domestic duty-free shopping in city stores is expected to create a market increment of 100-300 billion RMB, providing new growth opportunities for the company [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to have revenues of 56.38 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 16.52% from 2023, with net profits expected to be 4.94 billion RMB, down 26.44% [3]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 2.39 RMB in 2024, with a PE ratio of 28.44 [3].
中国中免:海南市场销售承压,口岸免税大幅增长
Guolian Securities· 2024-11-01 13:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year [2][6] - The sales in the Hainan market are under pressure, while the sales from duty-free shops at ports have significantly increased [4][6] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 32.0%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased promotional efforts [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, down 52.5% year-on-year [2][6] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 43.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.92 billion yuan [6] - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 58.19 billion yuan, 64.93 billion yuan, and 71.87 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.05 billion yuan, 5.99 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan [6][7] Market Analysis - The Hainan market is experiencing a decline in sales, with duty-free shopping amounts dropping by 35.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [6] - The number of duty-free shoppers and the average spending per shopper in Hainan also decreased by 27.2% and 11.6%, respectively [6] - Conversely, sales at duty-free shops in Beijing and Shanghai airports increased by over 140% and nearly 60% year-on-year, respectively, due to a recovery in inbound and outbound passenger flow [6] Cost and Profitability - The company's selling and administrative expenses for Q3 2024 were 2.16 billion yuan and 480 million yuan, respectively, with selling expense ratio and administrative expense ratio increasing by 0.6 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 5.4%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage, leading to the sustained "Buy" rating despite current market pressures [6]
中国中免:2024年三季报点评:口岸免税恢复良好,离岛免税承压静待修复
Minsheng Securities· 2024-11-01 10:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.021 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.919 billion yuan, down 24.72% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 11.756 billion yuan, a decline of 21.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 636 million yuan, down 52.53% year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer spending and adverse weather conditions [2]. - The company's gross margin slightly decreased, with a gross margin of 33.12% for the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.37 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.11%, down 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the duty-free sales in Hainan are under pressure, with a 37% year-on-year decline in sales to 5.549 billion yuan in Q3 2024, while the port duty-free sales have shown significant growth due to policy improvements and increased international flights [2]. - The investment suggestion indicates that new rental agreements are expected to reduce airport rental costs, and the recovery of inbound passenger flow is likely to boost port duty-free revenue, contributing to performance elasticity [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.546 billion yuan, 6.608 billion yuan, and 7.776 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25x, 21x, and 18x based on the closing price on October 31 [2][3][5]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating total revenue forecasts of 60.786 billion yuan for 2024, 69.904 billion yuan for 2025, and 80.390 billion yuan for 2026 [5][6].
中国中免2024年三季报业绩点评:Q3离岛免税承压,机场免税持续恢复
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-11-01 08:11
Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 85.2 RMB [2][3] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to weak Hainan duty-free sales, while airport duty-free sales continued to recover [2] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts were revised down to 2.38 RMB (-0.46), 2.84 RMB (-0.36), and 3.26 RMB (-0.32) respectively [2] - Airport and urban duty-free sales are expected to contribute to mid-term performance growth [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 11.756 billion RMB, down 21.52% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 636 million RMB, down 52.53% YoY [2] - Hainan duty-free sales in Q3 2024 dropped 36% YoY, with shopping人次 down 27% and average spending per customer down 12% [2] - Beijing airport duty-free sales grew over 140% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, while Shanghai airport duty-free sales increased nearly 60% [2] Operational Highlights - The company introduced 165 new brands in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic brands accounting for over 40% [2] - Gross margin in Q3 2024 was 32.0%, down 2.4 percentage points YoY, impacted by exchange rates and promotional activities [2] - Urban duty-free policies are being implemented, with related system对接稳步推进, expected to contribute to mid-term业绩增量 [2] Market Data - The stock's 52-week price range is 53.76-96.30 RMB, with a current price of 67.83 RMB [4] - Total market capitalization is 140.331 billion RMB, with 2.069 billion shares outstanding [4] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to be 8.8% in 2024, increasing to 10.8% by 2026 [8] - P/E ratio is forecasted at 28.51 for 2024, decreasing to 20.83 by 2026 [8] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 33.0% in 2024 to 35.3% in 2026 [8]
中国中免:第三季度净利润同比下滑,期待未来市内免税新增量
Guoxin Securities· 2024-11-01 06:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [1][5][6] Core Views - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 decreased by 52% year-on-year, aligning with previous performance forecasts. Revenue for Q3 was 11.756 billion yuan, down 21.52%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 636 million yuan, also down 52.53% [1][4] - The overall business performance is under pressure, with a 15.38% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 43.021 billion yuan, and a net profit decrease of 24.72% [1][4] - The Hainan duty-free business continues to face challenges due to weak consumer demand, with sales down 31% year-on-year for the first three quarters [1][4] - The report highlights a recovery in airport duty-free sales, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai, with significant revenue growth of over 140% and nearly 60%, respectively [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 11.756 billion yuan, down 21.52%, with net profit of 636 million yuan, down 52.53% year-on-year. For the first three quarters, revenue was 43.021 billion yuan, down 15.38%, and net profit was 3.919 billion yuan, down 24.72% [1][4] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 32.03%, slightly down from previous periods, but the year-to-date gross margin improved to 33.12% [1][5] Market Trends - The report notes a significant decline in Hainan's duty-free sales, with Q3 sales down 36% year-on-year. The company estimates a more than 30% decline in Hainan duty-free revenue for Q3 [1][4] - The introduction of new policies for city duty-free stores is expected to create new growth opportunities, with plans for new stores in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1][5] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that if consumer spending stabilizes, the company could benefit from its enhanced operational capabilities and product offerings, particularly with the new city duty-free policies [1][5] - The revenue growth assumptions for Hainan have been revised downwards for 2024-2026, reflecting the challenging market conditions [1][5]
中国中免:2024年第三季度报告点评:营销投入同比加大,旅游零售业态持续完善
EBSCN· 2024-10-31 07:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline in both revenue and profit [1]. - The company is increasing marketing investments and enhancing its tourism retail format, particularly in the duty-free sector [2][3]. - Despite a challenging consumption environment, the company is focusing on expanding its marketing and discount efforts, which has led to a decrease in gross margin [2]. - The company is exploring new retail models, including partnerships with domestic brands for overseas sales and the establishment of exclusive stores in key tourist areas [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 43.021 billion yuan, down 15.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.72% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 32.0%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4 percentage points [2]. - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 18.4%, 4.0%, and 0.1%, respectively, with year-on-year increases [2]. Market Expansion - The company is deepening its focus on the tourism retail sector and enhancing the role of duty-paid consumption [3]. - A new exclusive store for a domestic liquor brand opened in Sanya, indicating the company's strategy to innovate within the duty-free market [3]. - The company is also expanding its overseas channels, such as opening a duty-free store in Tokyo [3]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 6.69 billion yuan, 7.66 billion yuan, and 8.76 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.23 yuan, 3.70 yuan, and 4.23 yuan [4].
中国中免(601888) - 2024 Q3 - 季度财报
2024-10-30 09:02
Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the third quarter was approximately ¥11.76 billion, a decrease of 21.52% compared to the same period last year[2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately ¥636.40 million, down 52.53% year-on-year[2]. - Basic earnings per share for the quarter were ¥0.3076, reflecting a decline of 52.53% compared to the previous year[2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the quarter was approximately ¥635.05 million, a decrease of 52.49% year-on-year[2]. - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 43.02 billion, a decrease of 15.4% compared to CNY 50.84 billion in the same period of 2023[12]. - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 4.31 billion, a decline of 20.5% from CNY 5.42 billion in the same period of 2023[13]. - The total comprehensive income for the period was CNY 4,210,036,486.96, compared to CNY 5,908,745,924.37 in the same period last year, reflecting a decrease of approximately 28.7%[14]. - The basic and diluted earnings per share were both CNY 1.8944, down from CNY 2.5165 in the same period last year, reflecting a decrease of approximately 24.7%[14]. Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date period was approximately ¥5.10 billion, a decrease of 62.03% year-on-year[2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 5,103,650,006.60, down from CNY 13,442,904,588.11 in the previous year, indicating a decline of about 62.1%[15]. - The total cash inflow from operating activities was CNY 46,730,451,257.33, compared to CNY 55,166,707,917.70 in the prior year, representing a decrease of approximately 15.4%[15]. - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were CNY 31,985,093,212.30, compared to CNY 33,854,625,563.83 at the end of the previous year, a decrease of about 5.5%[16]. - The company reported a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of CNY 232,901,428.16, a significant decrease from CNY 8,092,482,377.19 in the previous year[16]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the quarter were approximately ¥75.58 billion, down 4.17% from the end of the previous year[3]. - As of September 30, 2024, the total assets of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation amounted to RMB 75.58 billion, a decrease from RMB 78.87 billion at the end of 2023[10]. - The company's current assets totaled RMB 54.66 billion, down from RMB 58.46 billion at the end of 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 4.8%[10]. - The company's total liabilities decreased to CNY 15.63 billion from CNY 19.69 billion, reflecting a reduction of approximately 20.5%[12]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased to CNY 54.23 billion from CNY 53.83 billion, showing a growth of 0.74%[12]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 309,526[6]. - The largest shareholder, China Tourism Group Co., Ltd., held 50.30% of the shares[6]. Operational Challenges - The company attributed the decline in performance to insufficient consumer spending and external factors such as typhoons in September[5]. - The company has not disclosed any new product developments or market expansion strategies in the current report[9]. - The company plans to focus on market expansion and new product development in the upcoming quarters to drive growth[12]. Expenses - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were CNY 8.73 million, down from CNY 9.78 million in 2023, indicating a decrease of 10.7%[13]. - The company reported a financial expense of CNY -654.91 million, compared to CNY -581.83 million in the previous year, reflecting an increase in financial costs[13]. - The company’s tax expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were CNY 1.14 billion, slightly down from CNY 1.15 billion in 2023[13].