Core Viewpoint - The upcoming closure of Hainan Free Trade Port presents both opportunities and challenges for China Duty Free Group (CDFG), as it faces declining performance despite favorable policies [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - CDFG's revenue and net profit declined by 10% and 20% year-on-year, respectively, in the first half of the year [1]. - In Hainan, CDFG's revenue fell to 288.92 billion yuan, a 27% decrease compared to the previous year, with the region's revenue share dropping from 70% in 2021 to 51% in 2024 [9]. - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free market decreased from 7368 yuan in 2021 to 5800 yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant drop in consumer spending [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expansion of the "zero tariff" product list from 1900 to approximately 6600 items will enhance CDFG's cost advantages in procuring luxury and daily consumer goods [3]. - However, popular duty-free items like cosmetics and alcohol remain on the import tax list, which may limit CDFG's pricing advantages compared to regular taxed channels [3]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as more cities establish city duty-free stores, with CDFG securing 75% of the new market in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [14][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The price advantage of duty-free shopping is diminishing, with the price difference between duty-free and taxed channels narrowing from 25% to 5%-10% post-closure [5]. - Increased international travel and the rise of cross-border e-commerce platforms are diverting consumer spending away from traditional duty-free shopping [12]. - CDFG is actively conducting promotional activities to stimulate sales, which may further impact profitability [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CDFG is at a critical transition from being driven by policy benefits to relying on internal capabilities for growth [16]. - The company's future success will depend on its ability to leverage the opportunities presented by the Hainan Free Trade Port closure while navigating the challenges posed by increased competition and changing consumer preferences [16].

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，中国中免(01880,601888.SH)的次季及中期业绩预告逊于市场预 期，该行认为，中国中免表现弱势应与非海南业务的波动性有关。公司提到，虽然持续受压，惟正通过 扩展免税+产品和推动自身品牌创新来加快战略转型。因此，公司在海南的市场份额同比上升近1%。 该行表示，中国中免虽然销售降幅有所收窄，但该行预计，由于去杠杆化、产品组合变化、渠道组合变 化和折扣的影响，盈利能力仍然面临压力。海南离岛免税政策在过去几天成为股价催化剂，因此不排除 获利了结的可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that China Duty Free Group (601888) has underperformed in its Q2 and interim earnings forecast, primarily due to volatility in non-Hainan operations [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The company has experienced a decline in sales, although the rate of decline has narrowed [1] - The market share in Hainan has increased by nearly 1% year-on-year, indicating some positive movement despite overall challenges [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on accelerating its strategic transformation through the expansion of duty-free products and promoting brand innovation [1] Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Profitability remains under pressure due to factors such as deleveraging, changes in product mix, channel mix, and discounts [1] - Recent Hainan offshore duty-free policies have acted as a catalyst for stock price movements, suggesting potential profit-taking opportunities [1]

证券之星消息，7月29日旅游零售板块较上一交易日下跌0.21%，中国中免领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3609.71，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于11289.41，上涨0.64%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 | 中国中免 | 66.23 | -0.21% | | 24.28万 | | 16.06亿 | 从资金流向上来看，当日旅游零售板块主力资金净流出1.53亿元，游资资金净流入4989.99万元，散户资 金净流入1.03亿元。旅游零售板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | | | | 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 ...

金融界7月29日消息，上证指数低开高走，上证养老产业指数 (上证养老，H50043)报7533.04点。 从指数持仓来看，上证养老产业指数十大权重分别为：博瑞医药（4.66%）、科沃斯（3.2%）、新华保 险（2.96%）、恒瑞医药（2.7%）、中国平安（2.64%）、中国太保（2.62%）、南京商旅（2.58%）、 通策医疗（2.55%）、中国中免（2.54%）、石头科技（2.54%）。 从上证养老产业指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证养老产业指数持仓样本的行业来看，可选消费占比36.84%、医药卫生占比36.08%、主要消费占 比11.40%、金融占比10.76%、通信服务占比4.92%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 数据统计显示，上证养老产业指数近一 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the earnings per share forecast for China Duty Free Group (01880) by 12% to 13% for the years 2025 to 2027 due to weakened sales momentum in online channels [1] - The target price for A-shares remains at 59 RMB, while the target price for H-shares has been raised from 46.2 HKD to 51.3 HKD, narrowing the discount between A and H shares to 20% from 30% [1] - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, amounting to 2.6 billion RMB, with a significant drop in the second quarter's net profit to 662 million RMB, down 32% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the free trade port policy in Hainan may expand market size by attracting more consumers, but it also poses a risk of increased competition as brand owners may establish their own stores [2] - The company is transitioning from being a pure duty-free operator to a platform operator that provides retail space, indicating a strategic shift in its business model [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 68 per H-share [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a forecasted decrease of 20.8% year-on-year. Total revenue for the same period is projected to be RMB 28.15 billion, down 10% year-on-year [6][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show a revenue of RMB 11.4 billion, reflecting an 8.5% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 660 million, down 32.2% year-on-year. This performance is below expectations [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of cross-border flights and the improvement of airport duty-free store operations in the second half of 2025, with a projected increase in market share in Hainan [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 45.21 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6%. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.19 [7][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for H-shares is expected to be 24 times for 2025, decreasing to 19 times by 2027 [7][8]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 61.38 billion in 2025 to RMB 74.87 billion by 2027 [11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the Hainan market, which is expected to improve as the Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially close on December 18, 2025. This is anticipated to enhance local economic vitality and benefit the company's operations [8]. - The company plans to open multiple new city duty-free stores throughout the year, further enhancing its operational layout [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The beauty care sector is highlighted with the launch of the world's first "honeycomb collagen" gel product by Jinbo Biological, which shows significant advancements in cell adhesion and collagen retention [3][23]. - The report notes a general increase in the performance of retail, social services, and beauty care sectors, with respective weekly gains of +2.65%, +2.30%, and +5.42% [14][16]. - Key companies such as Proya and Huaxi Hospital are collaborating on mitochondrial anti-aging research, indicating a trend towards scientific advancements in beauty products [3][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of July 21-25, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of +2.65%, +2.30%, and +5.42%, ranking 14th, 17th, and 6th among 31 primary industries [14][16]. - Sub-sectors such as personal care products, tourism, and cosmetics experienced notable gains of +7.74%, +3.93%, and +3.39% respectively [16][19]. Key Industry Events and News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially close on December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance trade conditions [3][23]. - Jinbo Biological launched a new injectable collagen gel product, which is expected to significantly improve skin treatment outcomes [3][23]. - Proya and Huaxi Hospital have partnered to focus on mitochondrial anti-aging research, which may lead to innovative product developments [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry sectors, suggesting specific stocks such as Proya, Giant Biological, and Marubi [5][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in these sectors, particularly in light of recent product innovations and market trends [5][29].

Market Performance - The Free Trade Port concept declined by 1.52%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors as of July 28 [1] - Within the Free Trade Port sector, notable declines were seen in companies such as Jinjiang Online, Hainan Rui Ze, and Jiaoyun Co., with respective declines of 9.76%, 5.62%, and 4.73% [2][3] - Conversely, companies like Panda Dairy, Shanghai Lingang, and COSCO Shipping Technology experienced gains of 3.59%, 2.83%, and 1.91% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The Free Trade Port sector saw a net outflow of 678 million yuan, with 24 stocks experiencing net outflows [2] - China Duty Free Group led the outflow with a net withdrawal of 207 million yuan, followed by Jinjiang Online and HNA Holding with outflows of 141 million yuan and 132 million yuan respectively [2][3] - In contrast, stocks such as Haixia Co., Shanghai Port Group, and Panda Dairy saw net inflows of 57.59 million yuan, 27.27 million yuan, and 25.48 million yuan respectively [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry is experiencing a rise in activity, yet China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) continues to face operational challenges, with significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported approximately 28.15 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year decrease of about 10% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of over 20% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The second quarter saw a net profit of approximately 662 million yuan, marking a decline of over 30%, the lowest level since 2018 [2][4][6]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue for the second quarter was approximately 11.41 billion yuan, down 8.45% year-on-year [4]. - The first quarter revenue was reported at 16.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.96% year-on-year [3][4]. - The overall performance in the first half of 2025 indicates a continuous decline in both revenue and net profit, with the second quarter showing a more pronounced drop [5][7]. Market Position and Strategy - China Duty Free Group maintains a strong position in the Hainan duty-free market, with a market share increase of nearly 1 percentage point [9]. - The company plans to accelerate its strategic transformation and expand its "duty-free+" boundaries, focusing on innovation in its own health brand [10][14]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with the company facing challenges from increased competition and changing consumer preferences [12][13]. Historical Context - Since its listing in 2009, the company has shown significant growth, with peak revenues and profits in 2021, but has since experienced a notable decline [10][11]. - The stock price has dropped over 80% from its peak of 403.78 yuan per share in 2021, with a current market capitalization of approximately 140.8 billion yuan [11][12]. Financial Health - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the company had substantial cash reserves of 39.68 billion yuan and low interest-bearing debt of 4.62 billion yuan [15].