1月20日，中国中免（601888.SH/1880.HK）早间发布公告，宣布公司于19日与DFS达成重大战略合作， 将以不超过3.95亿美元收购DFS港澳地区零售门店及其大中华区的无形资产（包括DFS旗下一系列的品 牌与IP于大中华区的独家使用权），并获LVMH集团及DFS创始人Miller家族认购其在香港新发行的H股 股份。 消息公布后，早间开盘中国中免应声大涨，其H股股一度冲高涨超11%，A股一度涨超6%。 资本市场投出信心票的背后，正是看到了此次公告显示出的中国中免的一次战略级"破圈"，这将标志着 中国中免正从依托政策红利的国内免税巨头，向具备全球资源整合能力的奢侈品消费平台跃迁。 这意味着中免在粤港澳大湾区的线下高端零售布局获得了即时且高质量的网络延伸，其业务辐射范围与 市场层次得到实质性拓展。这些成熟门店所承载的高客单价消费流量，将能够快速转化为公司报表上有 质量的营收与利润贡献。 更重要的是，这些门店作为成熟的商业枢纽，为中免构建更完整、更具韧性的跨境消费服务体系提供了 现成的战略支点。 硬资产的背后，还有更珍贵的无形资产赋能。 此次中免还将获得DFS在大中华区的品牌IP独家使用权。DFS长达六十 ...

商贸零售 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 1 月 21 日 601888.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 96.09 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 6.4 16.0 36.6 55.3 相对上证综指 4.2 10.3 30.2 28.5 发行股数 (百万) 2,068.86 (9%) 5% 18% 32% 45% 59% Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 中国中免 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,068.86 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 198,796.67 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 4,528.30 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 中国旅游集团有限公司 | 50.3 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2026 年 1 月 20 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国中免》20250901 《中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China travel retail business for up to $395 million (approximately RMB 2.75 billion) is expected to enhance the company's coverage of high-end consumer segments and strengthen its competitive advantage in the Greater China region [2][3] - The strategic partnership with LVMH aims to expand the company's channel advantages through collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3] Financial Projections - The audited revenue and net profit for DFS Greater China are projected to be RMB 4.149 billion and RMB 128 million for 2024, respectively, and RMB 2.754 billion and RMB 133 million for the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The adjusted EPS forecasts for the company are set at RMB 1.89, RMB 2.64, and RMB 3.34 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50.84, 36.39, and 28.79 [4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -16.38% for 2024 and -3.08% for 2025, followed by a recovery of 27.95% in 2026 and 15.46% in 2027 [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) has announced a partnership with LVMH and DFS Group to acquire DFS's travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau for up to $395 million, enhancing its market presence in the Greater China region [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Duty Free will acquire 100% of DFS Cotai Limitada and all operational assets of DFS stores in Hong Kong and Macau, excluding the City of Dreams store in Macau [3]. - The acquisition includes exclusive rights to a series of brands and intellectual properties under DFS in the Greater China region [2]. - LVMH and Robert Miller will subscribe to new H-shares issued by China Duty Free as part of the transaction, which will be a small portion of the proceeds from the sale [3]. Group 2: Strategic Cooperation - A strategic cooperation memorandum has been signed between China Duty Free and LVMH to establish a partnership in retail sectors aligned with their strategic interests [5]. - This collaboration aims to leverage the strengths of both companies to deepen cooperation in the Greater China region and achieve mutual benefits [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Context - DFS reported a revenue of 2.754 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan from its Hong Kong and Macau operations in the first three quarters of the 2025 fiscal year [6]. - China Duty Free's revenue for the same period was 39.86 billion yuan, a decline of 7.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.42 billion yuan, down 18.89% [6]. - The luxury goods market is projected to recover, with a forecasted growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, following a slight decline in 2025 [8].

智通财经记者 | 朱咏玲 智通财经编辑 | 许悦 中国旅游零售行业龙头中国中免进一步扩大业务版图。 该公司1月20日宣布，将收购全球奢侈品旅游零售商DFS（迪斐世）集团的大中华区零售业务，预计收购价格不超过3.95亿美元（约合人民币27.5亿元）。 该价格主要根据DFS在大中华区的核心资产——澳门7家门店和香港2家门店的估值而定。此次估值采用市场法，即参考可比上市公司的市场数据来估值。 其中，澳门店铺业务模式相对成熟，能产生稳定的经营利润，因此其估值采用EV（企业价值）/EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）倍数，取14.54倍，经调 整后估值为26.38亿元。而香港店铺近两年尚未稳定盈利，其估值采用EV/销售额倍数，取1.50倍，经调整后估值为4.96亿元。 而在中国内地，DFS的发展相对曲折，且始终未能壮大。由于中国内地免税牌照稀缺，一直以来，未获免税经营资质的DFS只能借由与本土公司合作涉足 免税业务，分享其供应链资源及运营经验；或是开展有税业务。 早在2005年，DFS就在海南的海口和三亚开设机场有税店；2011年又与海免公司合作参与海口美兰机场免税店的筹备，主要负责供货，直到2019年合约到 期后撤出海 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% in those years [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a growth of 35.0% and 15.0% respectively [4][12]. - The company's net asset return rate is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and assets from two core stores in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition will be funded entirely by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing business operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The duty-free sales in Hainan for October-November 2025 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, benefiting from a low base and new policies [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales in October-November 2025 were approximately 4.8 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, driven by a low base in 2024 and new duty-free policies [1] - In the first week following the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, duty-free shopping amounted to about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, supported by government and operator subsidies [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rate for China Duty Free Group's (CDFG) Hainan business in Q4 is projected to be between 20% and 25% [1] Group 2: Airport and Online Sales - In October-November, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Shanghai Airport reached 6.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while Beijing Capital Airport saw 3 million passengers, up 18% year-on-year, indicating potential growth in offline duty-free sales [2] - However, online sales for CDFG's Day Sun brand have significantly declined due to compliance issues and a shift in business model from general trade to cross-border e-commerce, leading to higher product pricing [2] - The online business's share is expected to decrease substantially due to these challenges [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - CDFG's Q4 revenue is expected to be 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) of 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to decline by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in product mix and the impact of low-margin online sales [2] - For 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.85 billion yuan and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively, with a strong recommendation for investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is accelerating its international expansion by acquiring DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million, which includes assets and equity stakes in DFS Singapore and DFS Hong Kong [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - CDFG's wholly-owned subsidiary, CDF International Co., Ltd., signed a framework agreement to acquire DFS's travel retail business, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and related assets from DFS Hong Kong [1]. - The acquisition will be financed through cash and is expected to close in approximately two months, pending customary closing conditions [2]. - Following the acquisition, CDFG will issue new H-shares to Delphine SAS and Shoppers Holdings HK at a price of HKD 77.21 per share, totaling up to 7,330,100 shares and 4,637,400 shares, respectively [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The transaction aims to enhance CDFG's competitiveness in the overseas travel retail market and is seen as a critical step in its internationalization strategy [2][3]. - CDFG has also signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH to collaborate in retail areas that align with both parties' strategic interests, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [2]. Group 3: Market Context - DFS, established in 1960, is a prominent high-end travel retailer with a strong presence in major airports and city centers globally, particularly in Hong Kong and Macau [5]. - In 2024, DFS is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 4.149 billion and a net profit of CNY 128 million, with revenues of CNY 2.754 billion and a net profit of CNY 133 million reported for the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The acquisition will enable CDFG to rapidly build a duty-free network in Greater China, complementing its existing channels [5]. Group 4: Market Trends - Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for duty-free shopping in Hainan has rebounded, with a reported shopping amount of CNY 5.02 billion in the first month of the new duty-free policy, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase [6]. - The number of shoppers in Hainan reached 772,000, reflecting a 29.7% year-on-year growth [6]. - CDFG is exploring new growth avenues as the Hainan market is no longer dominated solely by the company, with city and airport duty-free markets and overseas markets being key areas of focus [6].

Group 1 - Recent net redemptions in A-share broad-based ETFs have drawn market attention, with significant outflows recorded on January 15 and 16, totaling 687 billion and 863 billion respectively, marking the highest single-day outflows in history [1] - As of January 19, four out of six major broad-based ETFs saw their shares decline by over 10% in the last three trading days, with the largest, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, dropping to 778.63 billion shares, a scale of approximately 369.2 billion, the lowest since August 2024 [1] - The ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs also experienced significant declines, with the E Fund STAR 50 ETF and E Fund ChiNext ETF seeing share reductions of 34.55% and 20.22% respectively [3] Group 2 - In contrast to the outflows from broad-based ETFs, certain commodity, cross-border, and narrow-based ETFs attracted significant inflows, with the Southern Nonferrous ETF being the only product to receive over 10 billion in net inflows, totaling 100.87 billion, driven by rising base metal prices [3] - Other ETFs such as Yongying Satellite ETF, Harvest Software ETF, and GF Media ETF also received net inflows exceeding 6 billion [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the impact of ETF redemptions on individual stocks was significant, with main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market stocks experiencing sell-offs of 946 billion, 334 billion, and 265 billion respectively during the peak outflow days [3] Group 3 - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market following rapid price increases and overheated sentiment, including raising the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% [5][6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for comprehensive market monitoring and timely counter-cyclical adjustments to maintain market stability and prevent excessive volatility [6] - There are differing views on the long-term outlook for A-shares, with some analysts suggesting the potential for a slow bull market due to reforms, while others remain skeptical about escaping historical volatility patterns [7]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 2.88% on January 20, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock closed at 96.09, reflecting a 2.88% increase, with a trading volume of 849,000 shares and a transaction value of 82.39 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net inflow of 394 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 130 million yuan [1] - The breakdown of fund flows indicates that institutional investors had a net inflow of 394 million yuan, while speculative funds had a net outflow of 264 million yuan [1]